对外直接投资与境内生存扩延:基于中国工业企业数据的实证检验
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摘要
针对中国企业普遍面临的生存时间较短这一现象,文章基于中国工业企业对外直接投资的微观面板数据,综合采用倾向得分匹配和生存分析模型,刻画对外直接投资(OFDI)行为对企业在境内生存的影响效应。通过检验发现,OFDI行为总体上显著降低了企业的市场退出风险,延长了企业的生存时间,而且投资次数与企业的退出风险呈现"正U型"关系;投资于发达国家和技术研发型OFDI的风险抑制作用更强。影响机制检验表明,OFDI通过提升企业生产率、出口密集度和利润率进而降低企业的退出风险,其中利润率机制滞后且占主导作用。进一步的研究显示,OFDI对企业退出风险的抑制作用受异质性企业特征和行业调节。文章揭示了投资开放的新作用,即对外直接投资能有效扩延企业生存时间,丰富了中国对外直接投资外溢效应的研究。
In view of the fact that the survival period of Chinese enterprises is relatively short,based on the micro panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises' FDI,this paper uses the propensity score matching and survival analysis model to describe the impact of outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) on the survival of enterprises domestic. It is found that OFDI significantly reduces the risk of market exit and prolongs the survival perid of enterprises. Moreover,there is a positive U-shaped relationship between the number of investments and the exit risk of enterprises. Investment in developed countries and technology R&D-based OFDI has stronger risk inhibition effect. The test of impact mechanism shows that OFDI reduces the exit risk of enterprises by improving their productivity,export intensity and profit margin,in which profit margin mechanism lags behind and plays a dominant role.Further research shows that the inhibition of OFDI on exit risk is regulated by heterogeneous enterprise characteristics and industries. This paper reveals the new role of investment openness,that is,OFDI can effectively extend the survival time of enterprises.It enriches the research on the spillover effect of China's outward foreign direct investment.
In view of the fact that the survival period of Chinese enterprises is relatively short,based on the micro panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises' FDI,this paper uses the propensity score matching and survival analysis model to describe the impact of outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) on the survival of enterprises domestic. It is found that OFDI significantly reduces the risk of market exit and prolongs the survival perid of enterprises. Moreover,there is a positive U-shaped relationship between the number of investments and the exit risk of enterprises. Investment in developed countries and technology R&D-based OFDI has stronger risk inhibition effect. The test of impact mechanism shows that OFDI reduces the exit risk of enterprises by improving their productivity,export intensity and profit margin,in which profit margin mechanism lags behind and plays a dominant role.Further research shows that the inhibition of OFDI on exit risk is regulated by heterogeneous enterprise characteristics and industries. This paper reveals the new role of investment openness,that is,OFDI can effectively extend the survival time of enterprises.It enriches the research on the spillover effect of China's outward foreign direct investment.
引文
[1] Bernard A. B.,Jensen J. B.,Redding S. J.,P. K. Schott. Firms in international trade[J]. The Journal of Economic Perspectives,2007,21(3):105-130.
[2] BesedesT.,T. J. Prusa. Product Differentiation and Duration of US Import Trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2006,70(2):339-358.
[3] Bridges S.,A. Guariglia. Financial Constraints,Global Engagement,and Firm Survival in the United Kingdom:Evidence from Micro Data[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2008,55(4):444-464.
[4] Brardt L.,Van Biesebroeck J.,Zhang Y.. Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[5] Chiara F.,John P.,W. Gelübcke. The Death of German Firms:What Role for Foreign Direct Investment?[J]. The World Economy,2015,38(4):677-703.
[6] Cox D. R. Regression Models and Life-tables[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series B),1972,34(2):187-202.
[7] Edamura K.,Handea S.,Inui T.,Tan X.,Todo Y.. Impact of Chinese Cross-border Outbound M&As on Firm Performance:Econometric Analysis Using Firm-level Data[J]. China Economic Review,2014,30:169-179.
[8] Esteve-Pérez S.,Requena-Silvente F.,V. J.. Pallardo-López. The Duration of Firm-Destination Export Relationships:Evidence from Spain,1997~2006[J]. Economic Inquiry,2013,51(1):159-180.
[9] Ferragina A. M.,Pittiglio R.,F.. Reganati. Does multinational ownership affect firm survival in Italy?[J]. Journal of Business Economics and Management,2014,15(2):335-355.
[10] Gorg H.,M. E. Spaliara. Financial Health,Exports and Firm Survival:Evidence from UK and French Firms[J]. Economica,2014,81(323):419-444.
[11] Helpman E.,Melitz M. J.,S. R. Yeaple. Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J]. American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[12] Hess W.,M. Persson. Exploring the Duration of EU Imports[J]. Review of World Economics,2011,147:665-692.
[13] Kaplan E. L.,P. Meier. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1958,53(282):457-481.
[14] Namini J. E.,Facchini G.,R. A.. López. Export growth and firm survival[J]. Economics Letters,2013,120(3):481-486.
[15] Wagner J.. Exports,Imports and Firm Survival:First Evidence for Manufacturing Enterprises in Germany[J]. Review of World Economics,2013,149(1):113-130.
[16] Wang Y. L.. Exposure to FDI and New Plant Survival:Evidence in Canada[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2013,46(1):46-77.
[17]白涛,焦捷,金占明,王文龙.投资区位、进入模式选择与海外公司存活率之间的关系——以中国企业对外直接投资为例[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2013(2):280-288.
[18]包群,叶宁华,王艳灵.外资竞争、产业关联与中国本土企业的市场存活[J].经济研究,2015(7):102-115.
[19]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012(7):48-61.
[20]邓子梁,陈岩.外商直接投资对国有企业生存的影响:基于企业异质性的研究[J].世界经济,2013(12):53-69.
[21]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[22]李磊,冼国明,包群.“引进来”是否促进了“走出去”?——外商投资对中国企业对外直接投资的影响[J].经济研究,2018(3):142-156.
[23]李淑云,李平,许家云.进口行为与企业生存——基于中国制造业企业微观数据的实证分析[J].南开经济研究,2018(1):140-157.
[24]刘海洋,林令涛,李倩婷.进口中间品与中国企业生存扩延[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):58-75.
[25]马弘,乔雪,徐嫄.中国制造业的就业创造与就业消失[J].经济研究,2013(12):68-80.
[26]聂辉华,江艇,杨汝岱.中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题[J].世界经济,2012(5):142-158.
[27]檀灿灿,殷方华.国际多元化程度越高越好吗——一项基于海外子公司生存绩效的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(9):121-133.
[28]许家云,毛其淋.政府补贴、治理环境与中国企业生存[J].世界经济,2016(2):75-99.
[29]于娇,逯宇铎,刘海洋.出口行为与企业生存概率:一个经验研究[J].世界经济,2015(4):25-49.
[30]郑建贞,刘秀玲.中国企业OFDI持续时间的生存分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2014(5):66-73.
(1)因工企数据库在2011年及之后将主营业务收入门槛由原来的500万变动为2000万,这意味着某一非国有企业从工企数据库中退出,有可能是该企业的经营规模降到了工企数据库的统计规模以下,因此需要对样本中2011年、2012年和2013年的“exit=1”项进行调整。借鉴马弘等(2013)的做法,使用企业的所有制类型和营业状态来进一步识别,如果一个国有企业从样本中消失,直接定义为退出,而如果一个非国有企业从样本中消失,只有它的上一年为非运营状态时才定义为退出。
(1)通过舍恩菲尔德残差(Schoenfeld residuals)检验接受了Cox比例风险假设,同时采用稳健标准误控制可能存在的异方差问题。
(1)我们还采用Cloglog和Logit进行了稳健性检验,结论基本一致。备索,下同。
(1)国家统计局,《高技术产业(制造业)分类2013》文件,http://www.stats.gov.cn/statsinfo/auto2073/201310/P020131030586078312159.pdf。
[2] BesedesT.,T. J. Prusa. Product Differentiation and Duration of US Import Trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2006,70(2):339-358.
[3] Bridges S.,A. Guariglia. Financial Constraints,Global Engagement,and Firm Survival in the United Kingdom:Evidence from Micro Data[J]. Scottish Journal of Political Economy,2008,55(4):444-464.
[4] Brardt L.,Van Biesebroeck J.,Zhang Y.. Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2012,97(2):339-351.
[5] Chiara F.,John P.,W. Gelübcke. The Death of German Firms:What Role for Foreign Direct Investment?[J]. The World Economy,2015,38(4):677-703.
[6] Cox D. R. Regression Models and Life-tables[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society(Series B),1972,34(2):187-202.
[7] Edamura K.,Handea S.,Inui T.,Tan X.,Todo Y.. Impact of Chinese Cross-border Outbound M&As on Firm Performance:Econometric Analysis Using Firm-level Data[J]. China Economic Review,2014,30:169-179.
[8] Esteve-Pérez S.,Requena-Silvente F.,V. J.. Pallardo-López. The Duration of Firm-Destination Export Relationships:Evidence from Spain,1997~2006[J]. Economic Inquiry,2013,51(1):159-180.
[9] Ferragina A. M.,Pittiglio R.,F.. Reganati. Does multinational ownership affect firm survival in Italy?[J]. Journal of Business Economics and Management,2014,15(2):335-355.
[10] Gorg H.,M. E. Spaliara. Financial Health,Exports and Firm Survival:Evidence from UK and French Firms[J]. Economica,2014,81(323):419-444.
[11] Helpman E.,Melitz M. J.,S. R. Yeaple. Export versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms[J]. American Economic Review,2004,94(1):300-316.
[12] Hess W.,M. Persson. Exploring the Duration of EU Imports[J]. Review of World Economics,2011,147:665-692.
[13] Kaplan E. L.,P. Meier. Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association,1958,53(282):457-481.
[14] Namini J. E.,Facchini G.,R. A.. López. Export growth and firm survival[J]. Economics Letters,2013,120(3):481-486.
[15] Wagner J.. Exports,Imports and Firm Survival:First Evidence for Manufacturing Enterprises in Germany[J]. Review of World Economics,2013,149(1):113-130.
[16] Wang Y. L.. Exposure to FDI and New Plant Survival:Evidence in Canada[J]. Canadian Journal of Economics,2013,46(1):46-77.
[17]白涛,焦捷,金占明,王文龙.投资区位、进入模式选择与海外公司存活率之间的关系——以中国企业对外直接投资为例[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2013(2):280-288.
[18]包群,叶宁华,王艳灵.外资竞争、产业关联与中国本土企业的市场存活[J].经济研究,2015(7):102-115.
[19]陈勇兵,李燕,周世民.中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素[J].经济研究,2012(7):48-61.
[20]邓子梁,陈岩.外商直接投资对国有企业生存的影响:基于企业异质性的研究[J].世界经济,2013(12):53-69.
[21]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[22]李磊,冼国明,包群.“引进来”是否促进了“走出去”?——外商投资对中国企业对外直接投资的影响[J].经济研究,2018(3):142-156.
[23]李淑云,李平,许家云.进口行为与企业生存——基于中国制造业企业微观数据的实证分析[J].南开经济研究,2018(1):140-157.
[24]刘海洋,林令涛,李倩婷.进口中间品与中国企业生存扩延[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(12):58-75.
[25]马弘,乔雪,徐嫄.中国制造业的就业创造与就业消失[J].经济研究,2013(12):68-80.
[26]聂辉华,江艇,杨汝岱.中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题[J].世界经济,2012(5):142-158.
[27]檀灿灿,殷方华.国际多元化程度越高越好吗——一项基于海外子公司生存绩效的研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(9):121-133.
[28]许家云,毛其淋.政府补贴、治理环境与中国企业生存[J].世界经济,2016(2):75-99.
[29]于娇,逯宇铎,刘海洋.出口行为与企业生存概率:一个经验研究[J].世界经济,2015(4):25-49.
[30]郑建贞,刘秀玲.中国企业OFDI持续时间的生存分析[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报),2014(5):66-73.
(1)因工企数据库在2011年及之后将主营业务收入门槛由原来的500万变动为2000万,这意味着某一非国有企业从工企数据库中退出,有可能是该企业的经营规模降到了工企数据库的统计规模以下,因此需要对样本中2011年、2012年和2013年的“exit=1”项进行调整。借鉴马弘等(2013)的做法,使用企业的所有制类型和营业状态来进一步识别,如果一个国有企业从样本中消失,直接定义为退出,而如果一个非国有企业从样本中消失,只有它的上一年为非运营状态时才定义为退出。
(1)通过舍恩菲尔德残差(Schoenfeld residuals)检验接受了Cox比例风险假设,同时采用稳健标准误控制可能存在的异方差问题。
(1)我们还采用Cloglog和Logit进行了稳健性检验,结论基本一致。备索,下同。
(1)国家统计局,《高技术产业(制造业)分类2013》文件,http://www.stats.gov.cn/statsinfo/auto2073/201310/P020131030586078312159.pdf。