老年可穿戴技术融合演化特征研究
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摘要
[目的/意义]探索老年可穿戴技术融合的演化特征对于预测技术的发展趋势,应对老龄化社会的技术发展需求有重要作用。[方法/过程]以德温特数据库老年可穿戴技术专利为数据源,将1998-2017年的技术发展过程划分为5个阶段,测算每个阶段的赫芬达尔、结构洞等综合指标,分别从整体发展趋势和技术内部变化两方面展示各阶段老年可穿戴技术的融合动态特征,同时通过绘制技术融合地图实现可视化,更直观展示演化规律。[结果/结论]研究结果发现:老年可穿戴技术的发展趋势整体上是融合的;Tech13(医疗技术)、Tech35(土木工程)、Tech34(其他消费品)等技术是该领域内部的结构洞技术;融合过程中,关键的融合技术对有Tech14(有机精细化学)和Tech16(制药)、Tech23(化学工程)和Tech28(纺织和造纸机械)、Tech4(数字通信技术)和Tech12(控制)等三类;不同阶段融合程度呈现波动状态。
[Purpose/Significance]Exploring the evolutionary characteristics of the convergence of wearable technology for the elderly plays an important role in predicting the development trend of technology and responding to the technological needs of an aging society.[Method/Process]Taking old age wearable technology patents in the Derwent database as the data source, the technology development process from 1998 to 2017 is divided into five stages, and the comprehensive indicators such as Herfindahl and structural hole are calculated at each stage. From the two aspects of the overall development trend and internal changes in technology, the dynamic characteristics of the old age wearable technology in each stage are demonstrated. At the same time, the evolution law is displayed in a more intuitive way by visualization via mapping the technology convergence map.[Result/Conclusion]The results of the study find that: The development trend of wearable technology for the elderly is convergence as a whole; technologies such as Tech13(medical technology), Tech35(civil engineering), and Tech34(other consumer products) are structural hole technologies in the field; In the process of convergence, there are three key fusion technology pairs: Tech14(organic fine chemistry) and Tech16(pharmaceutical), Tech23(chemical engineering) and Tech28(textile and paper machinery), and Tech4(digital communication technology) and Tech12(control); The degree of convergence in different stages is fluctuating.
[Purpose/Significance]Exploring the evolutionary characteristics of the convergence of wearable technology for the elderly plays an important role in predicting the development trend of technology and responding to the technological needs of an aging society.[Method/Process]Taking old age wearable technology patents in the Derwent database as the data source, the technology development process from 1998 to 2017 is divided into five stages, and the comprehensive indicators such as Herfindahl and structural hole are calculated at each stage. From the two aspects of the overall development trend and internal changes in technology, the dynamic characteristics of the old age wearable technology in each stage are demonstrated. At the same time, the evolution law is displayed in a more intuitive way by visualization via mapping the technology convergence map.[Result/Conclusion]The results of the study find that: The development trend of wearable technology for the elderly is convergence as a whole; technologies such as Tech13(medical technology), Tech35(civil engineering), and Tech34(other consumer products) are structural hole technologies in the field; In the process of convergence, there are three key fusion technology pairs: Tech14(organic fine chemistry) and Tech16(pharmaceutical), Tech23(chemical engineering) and Tech28(textile and paper machinery), and Tech4(digital communication technology) and Tech12(control); The degree of convergence in different stages is fluctuating.
引文
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[25] 宋昱晓,苗红.基于专利的技术融合趋势的驱动因素研究[J].情报杂志,2017(12):98-105.
[26] Salancik G.Structural Holes:The social structure of competition[M].Harvard:Harvard University Press,1992:774-788.
[27] Burt R.Structural holes and good ideas[J].AJS,2004,2(0602):11002-11004.
[2] Lei D T.Industry evolution and competence development:The imperatives of technological convergence[J].International Journal of Technology Management.2000,19(7/8):699-738.
[3] Yoffie D B.Competing in the age of digital convergence[J].California Management Review,1996,38(4):31-53.
[4] Nordmann A.Converging technologies—shaping the future of European societies[J].Office for Official Publications of the European Communities (EUR 21357),Luxembourg,2004.
[5] Roco M C,Bainbridge W S.Converging technologies for improving human performance:Integrating from the nanoscale[J].Journal of Nanoparticle Research,2002,4(4):281-295.
[6] Wolbring G.Why NBIC?Why human performance enhancement?[J].Innovation the European Journal of Social Science Research,2008,21(1):25-40.
[7] Stieglitz N.Strategisches handeln und wettbewerb im konvergenzprozess[M].Deutscher Universit?tsverlag,2004:221-314.
[8] Katz M L.Remarks on the economic implications of convergence[J].Industrial & Corporate Change,1996,5(4):1079-1095.
[9] Borés C,Saurina C,Torres R.Technological convergence:a strategic perspective[J].Technovation,2003,23(1):1-13.
[10] Curran C S.The anticipation of converging industries[M].London:Springer London,2013:63-125.
[11] Curran C S,Leker J.Patent indicators for monitoring convergence-examples from NFF and ICT[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2011,78(2):256-273.
[12] Karvonen M,Lethovaara M.Bulid-up of understanding of technology convergence:Evidence from printed intelligence industry[J].International Journal of Innovation & Technology Management,2012,9(3):1250020.
[13] Preschitschek N,Curran C S,Leker J.The importance of access to resources in a setting of industry convergence:The case of agriculture and chemistry[C].2011.
[14] Dosi G.Technological paradigms and technological trajectories:A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technological change"[C].Research Policy,1993.
[15] 李丫丫,赵玉林.基于专利的技术融合分析方法及其应用[J].科学学研究,2016(2):203-211.
[16] Athreye S,Keeble D.Technological convergence,globalisation and ownership in the UK computer industry[J].Technovation,2000,20(5):227-245.
[17] 可穿戴技术的发展[J].中国生物医学工程学报,2015,34(6):644-653.
[18] 李晓珊,张明.面向高龄用户的可穿戴产品设计研究[J].装饰,2015(7):101-103.
[19] Jeong S,Kim J C,Choi J Y.Technology convergence:What developmental stage are we in?[J].Scientometrics,2015,104(3):1-31.
[20] Blackman M.Provision of patent information:A national patent office perspective[J].World Patent Information,1995,17(2):115-123.
[21] Kim M S,Kim C.On a patent analysis method for technological convergence[J].Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences.2012,40(40):657-663.
[22] 李姝影,方曙.测度技术融合与趋势的数据分析方法研究进展[J].数据分析与知识发现,2017(7):2-12.
[23] Verspagen B.Measuring intersectoral technology spillovers:Estimates from the european and US patent office databases[J].Economic Systems Research,1997,9(1):47-65.
[24] Curran C S,Br?ring S,Leker J.Anticipating converging industries using publicly available data[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2010,77(3):385-395.
[25] 宋昱晓,苗红.基于专利的技术融合趋势的驱动因素研究[J].情报杂志,2017(12):98-105.
[26] Salancik G.Structural Holes:The social structure of competition[M].Harvard:Harvard University Press,1992:774-788.
[27] Burt R.Structural holes and good ideas[J].AJS,2004,2(0602):11002-11004.
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