飞机整体驱动发电机可靠性评估及寿命预测
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摘要
基于航空维修工程中飞机整体驱动发电机(IDG)的故障数据,进行IDG整机可靠性评估及寿命预测研究.利用Edgeworth级数,将服从任意分布的故障数据概率分布函数近似展开成标准正态分布函数,利用Hermite多项式进行计算,获得可靠度R及平均故障间隔时间的点估计.解决了任意分布的故障数据概率密度函数及概率分布函数难以确定、传统方法IDG运算过程复杂、计算量庞大的问题.运用Bootstrap方法进行IDG可靠度、平均故障间隔时间的点估计和区间估计计算,并通过算例验证了Edgeworth级数方法的正确性和有效性,为制定航空维修计划、节约维修成本,提供了科学的理论依据,具有重要的工程指导意义.
Based on the fault data of aircraft integrated drive generator(IDG)in aviation maintenance engineering,the reliability evaluation and life prediction of IDG is comprehensively researched.The Edgeworth series is used to expand the probability distribution function of fault data of arbitrarily distributed into a standard normal distribution function and the Hermite polynomial is used for the calculation to obtain the reliability R and the mean time between failures.The probability density function and probability distribution function of fault data of arbitrarily distributed are difficult to determine and the complex calculation process and huge calculation of traditional method is solved.The point estimation and interval estimation of mean time between failures and reliability of IDG is achieved by Bootstrap method.Finally,an example is given to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.It provides a scientific theoretical basis for the formulation of aviation maintenance plans and saves maintenance costs,and has important engineering guidance significance.
Based on the fault data of aircraft integrated drive generator(IDG)in aviation maintenance engineering,the reliability evaluation and life prediction of IDG is comprehensively researched.The Edgeworth series is used to expand the probability distribution function of fault data of arbitrarily distributed into a standard normal distribution function and the Hermite polynomial is used for the calculation to obtain the reliability R and the mean time between failures.The probability density function and probability distribution function of fault data of arbitrarily distributed are difficult to determine and the complex calculation process and huge calculation of traditional method is solved.The point estimation and interval estimation of mean time between failures and reliability of IDG is achieved by Bootstrap method.Finally,an example is given to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.It provides a scientific theoretical basis for the formulation of aviation maintenance plans and saves maintenance costs,and has important engineering guidance significance.
引文
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[14]EFRON B.Better bootstrap confidence intervals[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1987,82(397):171-185.
[15]袁修开,吕震宙,岳珠峰.小样本下分位数函数的Bootstrap置信区间估计[J].航空学报,2012,33(10):1842-1849.YUN X K,LYU Z Z,YUE Z F.Bootstrap confidence interval of quantile function estimation for small samples[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2012,33(10):1842-1849.
[2]徐玉茗,邓超,吴军.基于Bootstrap方法的可靠性评估[J].机械设计与制造,2010(3):105-108.XU Y M,DENG C,WU J.A reliability assessment method based on Bootstrap[J].Mechanical Design and Manufacturing,2010(3):105-108.
[3]伍建军,吴小明,谢周伟,等.改进威布尔分布的矿冶零部件可靠性寿命预测研究[J].机械科学与技术,2017,36(3):436-441.WU J J,WU X M,XIE Z W,et al.Prediction of reliability life of mining and metallurgy parts via an improved Weibull distribution[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2017,36(3):436-441.
[4]徐微,胡伟明,孙鹏.基于两参数威布尔分布的设备可靠性预测研究[J].中国工程机械学报,2013,11(2):112-116.XU W,HU W M,SUN P.Equipment reliability prediction based on dual-parametric Weibull distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Construction Machinery,2013,11(2):112-116.
[5]刘文彬,徐微,王庆锋.基于威布尔概率统计分析方法的设备可靠性预测研究[J].机械科学与技术,2012,31(4):665-669.LIU W B,XU W,WANG Q F.Equipment reliability prediction research based on Weibull probability and statistical analysis method[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2012,31(4):665-669.
[6]王继利,杨兆军,李国发,等.基于改进EM算法的多重威布尔可靠性建模[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2014,44(4):1010-1015.WANG J L,YANG Z J,LI G F,et al.Reliability modeling of finite Weibull distribution based on improved EM algorithm[J].Journal of Jilin University(Engineering and Technology Edition),2014,44(4):1010-1015.
[7]杨建国,王智明,王国强,等.数控机床可靠性指标的似然比检验区间估计[J].机械工程学报,2012,48(2):9-15.YANG J G,WANG Z M,WANG G Q,et al.Likelihood ratio test interval estimation of reliability indices for numerical control machine tools[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2012,48(2):9-15.
[8]ZHAO Y G,ONO T.Moment method for structural safety reliability[J].Structural Safety,2001,23(1):47-75.
[9]ZHAO Y G,ONO T.On the problems of fourth moment method[J].Structural Safety,2004,26(3):343-347.
[10]叶江水,王仲刚,陈友良.基于前四阶矩的非高斯响应概率密度函数逼近方法研究[J].后勤工程学院学报,2010,26(1):12-16.YE J S,WANG Z G,CHEN Y L.Research on approximate methods of non-Gaussian probability density function based on the first four moments of the response[J].Journal of Logistical Engineering University,2010,26(1):12-16.
[11]张义民,贾敬存,黄贤振.基于Edgeworth级数法和数据包络分析法的数控车床可靠性分配[J].机械强度,2016,38(1):69-73.ZHANG Y M,JIANG J C,HUANG X Z.Reliability allocation of CNC lathe based on Edgeworth series method and date envelopment analysis[J].Journal of Mechanical Strength,2016,38(1):69-73.
[12]李超,刘长虹.蠕变损伤概率的Edgeworth级数近似分布函数的研究[J].机械设计与制造,2013(9):124-125.LI C,LIU C H.The study on the Edgeworth series distribution function of the creep damage probability[J].Mechanical Design and Manufacturing,2013(9):124-125.
[13]WANG Q,FAN W.Cumulonimbus forecasting based on rough set and artificial immune algorithm[C]//Proceedings 20106th International Conference on Natural Computation.[S.l.:s.n.].2010:2856-2860.
[14]EFRON B.Better bootstrap confidence intervals[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1987,82(397):171-185.
[15]袁修开,吕震宙,岳珠峰.小样本下分位数函数的Bootstrap置信区间估计[J].航空学报,2012,33(10):1842-1849.YUN X K,LYU Z Z,YUE Z F.Bootstrap confidence interval of quantile function estimation for small samples[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2012,33(10):1842-1849.