近60a来新疆不同海拔气候变化的时空特征分析
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摘要
全球变暖是当前全球气候变化研究的热点之一,新疆深居亚欧大陆内陆,地形气候复杂,探讨该区域气候变化与海拔的关系对全球气候变化研究具有重要的参考意义。基于1958—2017年新疆41个气象站的月和年平均气候数据,采用一元线性回归、Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势分析和突变检验等方法分析该地区气候变化的时空分布与海拔的关系。结果表明:1958—2017年新疆年均气温、年均降水量均呈上升趋势,但增加幅度具有时间和空间差异。在时间上,北疆四季平均气温增温幅度均大于南疆(冬季除外),四季降水量增幅北疆大于南疆(夏季除外);在空间上,北疆气温和降水的增幅均大于南疆。研究区各个站点气温呈现出南部高而北部低的空间格局,年均降水量北部多,南部低。各个站点气温倾向率总体随海拔增加而减少,年均降水量变化率随海拔升高而增加,在不同海拔带内部存在差异。综上所述,受全球气候变暖的影响,近60 a来新疆年均气温和年均降水量均呈上升趋势,尤其是北疆对全球气候变暖的响应较为敏感。
Global warming is one of the hotspots in global climate change research.Climate is an important part of nature,the basis for human survival and development,and an important condition for sustainable social development.But in recent years,with the intensification of human activities,the global climate is getting warmer.Located in arid and semi-arid regions,Xinjiang,China,has complex topography and more obvious climate change.In recent years,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise,which has aroused widespread concern of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.Therefore,the discussion of the relationship between climate change and altitude in this region has important reference significance for global climate change research,as well as guiding significance for promoting sustainable development of local economy and rational utilization of resources.Based on the long-term temperature and precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1958 to 2017,and using ArcGIS,Matlab and other software,this paper uses regression analysis,climate trend method,Mann-Kendall(M-K) trend analysis and mutation test and other methods to analyze the time and space characteristics of climate change in different altitude zones in the research area in the past 60 years.The results show that from 1958 to 2017,the average annual temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang show an upward trend,but the increase range has time and space differences.In terms of time,the average temperature increase range of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang(except winter),and the increase rate of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang(except summer).Spatially,the increase of temperature and precipitation in northern Xinjiang was greater than that in southern Xinjiang.The temperature of each station in the study area showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north,with the highest average annual temperature of the meteorological stations around the Tarim Basin in the south and low average annual temperature in the north.However,the range of temperature increase was not consistent.In general,the range of temperature increase in northern Xinjiang was larger than that in southern Xinjiang,showing regional differences.The average annual precipitation is high in the north and low in the south.The trend rate of temperature decreases with the increase of altitude,and the change rate of annual precipitation increases with the increase of altitude.The results showed that the average annual temperature in the middle and low altitude zone increased greatly,and the average annual precipitation in the middle and high-altitude zone increased greatly.To sum up,under the influence of global warming,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise in the past 60 years.In particular,northern Xinjiang is more sensitive to global warming than southern Xinjiang.
Global warming is one of the hotspots in global climate change research.Climate is an important part of nature,the basis for human survival and development,and an important condition for sustainable social development.But in recent years,with the intensification of human activities,the global climate is getting warmer.Located in arid and semi-arid regions,Xinjiang,China,has complex topography and more obvious climate change.In recent years,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise,which has aroused widespread concern of domestic and foreign experts and scholars.Therefore,the discussion of the relationship between climate change and altitude in this region has important reference significance for global climate change research,as well as guiding significance for promoting sustainable development of local economy and rational utilization of resources.Based on the long-term temperature and precipitation data of 41 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1958 to 2017,and using ArcGIS,Matlab and other software,this paper uses regression analysis,climate trend method,Mann-Kendall(M-K) trend analysis and mutation test and other methods to analyze the time and space characteristics of climate change in different altitude zones in the research area in the past 60 years.The results show that from 1958 to 2017,the average annual temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang show an upward trend,but the increase range has time and space differences.In terms of time,the average temperature increase range of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang(except winter),and the increase rate of four seasons in northern Xinjiang is greater than that in southern Xinjiang(except summer).Spatially,the increase of temperature and precipitation in northern Xinjiang was greater than that in southern Xinjiang.The temperature of each station in the study area showed a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north,with the highest average annual temperature of the meteorological stations around the Tarim Basin in the south and low average annual temperature in the north.However,the range of temperature increase was not consistent.In general,the range of temperature increase in northern Xinjiang was larger than that in southern Xinjiang,showing regional differences.The average annual precipitation is high in the north and low in the south.The trend rate of temperature decreases with the increase of altitude,and the change rate of annual precipitation increases with the increase of altitude.The results showed that the average annual temperature in the middle and low altitude zone increased greatly,and the average annual precipitation in the middle and high-altitude zone increased greatly.To sum up,under the influence of global warming,the average annual temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have been on the rise in the past 60 years.In particular,northern Xinjiang is more sensitive to global warming than southern Xinjiang.
引文
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[14] 张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.[ZHANG Handan,WEI Wei,XUE Sha.Analysis on the variation of temperature and precipitation in Dingxi based on R/S and Mann-Kendall test[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(6):183-189.]
[15] YUE S,PILON P,CAVADIAS G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,259(1):254-271.
[16] 张璐,周跃.Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用[J].新疆环境保护,2007,(3):19-22.[ZHANG Lu,ZHOU Yue.Mann-Kendall test and appling it in time order analvzing of river suspended sand concentration[J].Environmental Protection of Xinjiang,2007,(3):19-22.]
[2] 秦大河,THOMAS Stocker.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.[QING Dahe,THOMAS Stocker.Highlights of the IPCC working group 1 fifth assessment report[J].Climate Change Research,2014,10(1):1-6.]
[3] 丁明军,李兰晖,张镱锂,等.1971—2012年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(7):1509-1518.[DING Mingjun,LI Lanhui,ZHANG Yili,et al.Temperature change and its elevation dependency on the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity from 1971 to 2012[J].Resources Science,2014,36(7):1509-1518.]
[4] 李鹏飞,刘文军,赵昕奕.京津冀地区近50年气温、降水与潜在蒸散量变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(3):137-143.[LI Pengfei,LIU Wenjun,ZHAO Xinyi.The changes of atmospheric temperature,precipitation and potential evapo-transpiration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(3):137-143.]
[5] REN G Y,DING Y H,ZHAO Z C,et al.Recent progress in studies of climate change in China[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2012,29(5):958-977.
[6] SHI Y,SHEN Y,KANG E,et al.Recent and future climate change in northwest China[J].Climatic Change,2007,80(3/4):379-393.
[7] 沈伟.1953-2008年新疆北部地区降水变化趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(4):130-134.[SHEN Wei.Trend analysis of precipitation in northern Xinjiang during 1953-2008[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2010,21(4):130-134.]
[8] 苏里坦,宋郁东,张展羽.近40 a天山北坡气候与生态环境对全球变暖的响应[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(3):342-346.[SU Litan,SONG Yudong,ZHANG Zhanyu.Response of the climate and ecological environment in northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains to global warming since recent 40 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2005,28 (3):342-346.]
[9] 马建勇,潘婕,姜江,等.北疆地区1955—2009年气温、降水变化特征的时间序列分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2012,6(2):18-24.[MA Jianyong,PAN Jie,JIANG Jiang,et al.The time series analysis of temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang northern region during 1955—2009[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2012,6(2):18-24.]
[10] 王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.开都河流域上下游过去50 a气温降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区地理,2012,35(5):746-753.[WANG Weixia,WANG Xiujun,JIANG Fengqing,et al.Temperature and precipitation along the Kaidu River over the past 50 years[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(5):746-753.]
[11] 薛燕,韩萍,冯国华.半个世纪以来新疆降水和气温的变化趋势[J].干旱区研究,2003,20(2):127-130.[XUE Yan,HAN Ping,FENG Guohua.Change trend of the precipitation and air temperature in Xinjiang since recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2003,20(2):127-130.]
[12] 刘波,冯锦明,马柱国,等.1960-2005年新疆气候变化的基本特征[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(4):414-426.[LIU Bo,FENG Jinming,MA Zhuguo,et al.Characteristics of climate changes in Xinjiang from 1960 to 2005[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2009,14(4):414-426.]
[13] 施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,1995,(4):431-439.[SHI Neng,CHEN Jiaqi,TU Qipu.4-phase climate change features in the last 100 years over China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1995,(4):431-439.]
[14] 张涵丹,卫伟,薛萐.基于R/S分析和Mann-Kendall检验的定西市气温降水变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):183-189.[ZHANG Handan,WEI Wei,XUE Sha.Analysis on the variation of temperature and precipitation in Dingxi based on R/S and Mann-Kendall test[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(6):183-189.]
[15] YUE S,PILON P,CAVADIAS G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series[J].Journal of Hydrology,2002,259(1):254-271.
[16] 张璐,周跃.Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用[J].新疆环境保护,2007,(3):19-22.[ZHANG Lu,ZHOU Yue.Mann-Kendall test and appling it in time order analvzing of river suspended sand concentration[J].Environmental Protection of Xinjiang,2007,(3):19-22.]