黄土高原地区城市“社会-经济”系统脆弱性的时空特征与影响因素
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摘要
依据脆弱性评价的"暴露性-敏感性-适应能力"准则,采用熵权法、加权求和模型、空间回归模型等方法探讨2005—2015年黄土高原地区城市"社会-经济"系统脆弱性的时空特征和影响因素。结果表明:黄土高原地区城市"社会-经济"系统整体属于中度脆弱,并处于良性的发展轨道;不同类型城市的"社会-经济"系统脆弱性呈现差异化的演变特征,资源型城市和大部分城市群的脆弱性下降,省会城市由于极化效应面临着较强的风险胁迫;脆弱性指数自东向西逐渐增强,大地形单元作为自然环境本底对脆弱性分异具有重要影响,脆弱性热点区始终集中在青海省东部的黄土高原沟壑区;脆弱性评价中的适应能力维度对该区域城市"社会-经济"系统脆弱性的影响最为显著,表明当前黄土高原地区城市发展的核心问题已从促进经济增长转化为提高可持续性,突出表现为强化软硬件基础设施建设、提高经济效益、调节城乡不均衡性和降低经济发展的资源环境压力。
According to the "exposure-sensitivity-adaptive ability" criterion of vulnerability assessment, the entropy weight method, weighted summation model and spatial regression model are used to explore temporal and spatial differentiation and influencing factors of vulnerability for urban "social-economic" system in the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015.The results show that the urban "social-economic" system in the Loess Plateau is moderately fragile and in a benign orbit. The vulnerabilities of the "social-economic" systems of different types of cities show different evolutionary characteristics. The vulnerability of resource-based cities and most urban agglomerations declines. The provincial capitals face strong risk coercion due to the polarization effect. The vulnerability index in the Loess Plateau has gradually increased from east to west. The large topographic unit as an important part of the natural environment has great significant impact on vulnerability differentiation. The hotspots region has always been concentrated in the Gully area of Loess Plateau in the eastern part of Qinghai Province. From the perspective of vulnerability dimension assessment, it is clearly indicated that the core issue of urban development in the Loess Plateau has been transformed from promoting economic growth to improving sustainability, that is, the construction of both software and hardware infrastructure, improving economic efficiency, regulating urban-rural imbalances, and reducing resource and environmental pressures for economic development.
According to the "exposure-sensitivity-adaptive ability" criterion of vulnerability assessment, the entropy weight method, weighted summation model and spatial regression model are used to explore temporal and spatial differentiation and influencing factors of vulnerability for urban "social-economic" system in the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015.The results show that the urban "social-economic" system in the Loess Plateau is moderately fragile and in a benign orbit. The vulnerabilities of the "social-economic" systems of different types of cities show different evolutionary characteristics. The vulnerability of resource-based cities and most urban agglomerations declines. The provincial capitals face strong risk coercion due to the polarization effect. The vulnerability index in the Loess Plateau has gradually increased from east to west. The large topographic unit as an important part of the natural environment has great significant impact on vulnerability differentiation. The hotspots region has always been concentrated in the Gully area of Loess Plateau in the eastern part of Qinghai Province. From the perspective of vulnerability dimension assessment, it is clearly indicated that the core issue of urban development in the Loess Plateau has been transformed from promoting economic growth to improving sustainability, that is, the construction of both software and hardware infrastructure, improving economic efficiency, regulating urban-rural imbalances, and reducing resource and environmental pressures for economic development.
引文
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[21] 杜国明,孙晓兵,王介勇.东北地区土地利用多功能性演化的时空格局[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(2):232-244.
[22] 贾慧,陈海,毛南赵,等.高度敏感生态脆弱区景观可持续性评价[J].资源科学,2018,40(60):1277-1286.
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[26] 方创琳,王岩.中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):234-247.
[27] 戴铁军,王婉君,刘瑞.中国社会经济系统资源环境压力的时空差异[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1942-1955.
[2] 董锁成,吴玉萍,王海英.黄土高原生态脆弱贫困区生态经济发展模式研究:以甘肃省定西地区为例[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):590-600.
[3] 李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.
[4] JANSSEN M A,SCHOON M L,KE W,et al.Scholarly networks on resilience,vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change [J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):240-252.
[5] ADGER W N.Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam[J].World Development,1999,27(2):249-269.
[6] ADGER W N.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[7] EMRICH C T,CUTTER S L.Social vulnerability to climate-sensitive hazards in the southern United States[J].Weather Climate and Society,2011,3(3):193-208.
[8] YUAN H H,NIU F Q,GAO X L.A study on urban economic vulnerability evaluation system[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2015,25(10):1264-1278.
[9] 李海玲,马蓓蓓,薛东前,等.丝路经济带背景下我国西北地区城市脆弱性的空间分异与影响因素[J].经济地理,2018,38(2):66-73.
[10] 郭兵,孔维华,姜琳.西北干旱荒漠生态区脆弱性动态监测及驱动因子定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(3):412-424.
[11] 樊哲文,刘木生,沈文清,等.江西省生态脆弱性现状GIS 模型评价[J].地球信息科学学报,2009,11(2):202-208.
[12] 张德君,高航,杨俊,等.基于GIS 的南四湖湿地生态脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2014,36(4):874-882.
[13] 苗长虹,胡志强,耿凤娟.中国资源型城市经济演化特征与影响因素:路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造的作用[J].地理研究,2018,37(7):1268-1281.
[14] 王岩,方创琳.大庆市城市脆弱性综合评价与动态演变研究[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):547-555.
[15] 李鹤,张平宇.矿业城市经济脆弱性演变过程及应对时机选择研究:以东北三省为例[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):82 -88.
[16] 陈晓红,周宏浩,王秀.基于生态文明的县域环境-经济-社会耦合脆弱性与协调性研究:以黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市为例[J].人文地理,2018(1):94-104.
[17] 高杨,马耀峰,刘军胜.旅游业-城市化-生态环境耦合协调及发展类型研究:以京津冀地区为例[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2016,44(5):109-118.
[18] 黄晓军,王晨,胡凯丽.快速空间扩张下西安市边缘区社会脆弱性多尺度评估[J].地理学报,2018,73(6):1002-1017.
[19] 刘艳华,徐勇.扶贫模式可持续减贫效应的分析框架及机理探析[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(4):567-578.
[20] 王涛.荒漠化治理中生态系统、社会经济系统协调发展问题探析:以中国北方半干旱荒漠区沙漠化防治为例[J].生态学报,2016,36(22):7045-7048.
[21] 杜国明,孙晓兵,王介勇.东北地区土地利用多功能性演化的时空格局[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(2):232-244.
[22] 贾慧,陈海,毛南赵,等.高度敏感生态脆弱区景观可持续性评价[J].资源科学,2018,40(60):1277-1286.
[23] 徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].第2版.北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[24] 中国科学院黄土高原综合科学考察队.黄土高原地区土地资源[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1991.
[25] 薛娟娟,葛永慧.黄土高原矿区生态系统服务价值研究:以轩岗矿区为例[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2018,46(4):91-97.
[26] 方创琳,王岩.中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):234-247.
[27] 戴铁军,王婉君,刘瑞.中国社会经济系统资源环境压力的时空差异[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1942-1955.
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