气候变化和人类活动对黄河源区径流影响的评估
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摘要
为了深入了解黄河源区径流变异规律,需定量评估气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。本文采用Penman-Monteith公式计算出流域各气象站的潜在蒸发量,综合Mann-Kendall方法和累积距平方法诊断出降水和径流突变点位置,并采用5种具有代表性的Budyko公式,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:(1)降水和径流的突变年份分别为1985年和1989年;(2)人类活动是导致径流量改变的主要因子,占比为67.62%;气候变化因子次之,占比为32.38%。该成果可为水资源管理部门在制定流域水资源规划方案时提供参考。
In order to better understand the changes of runoff in source region of the Yellow River,it is requried to quantitatively evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff.The potential evapotranspiration of each meteorological station in the basin is calculated by using the Penman-Monteith formula,the Mann-Kendall method and the cumulative departure method for diagnosing the location of abrupt change of precipitation and runoff.Five representative Budyko formulas are used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff.The results are as follows:(1) The abrupt years of precipitation and runoff are 1985 and1989,respectively;(2) Human activity is the main factor leading to runoff change,accounting for about 67.62% of runoff change;followed by climate change,which accounts for about 32.38%of runoff change.The results can provide references for the water resources management department in formulating the water resources planning plan for the river basin.
In order to better understand the changes of runoff in source region of the Yellow River,it is requried to quantitatively evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff.The potential evapotranspiration of each meteorological station in the basin is calculated by using the Penman-Monteith formula,the Mann-Kendall method and the cumulative departure method for diagnosing the location of abrupt change of precipitation and runoff.Five representative Budyko formulas are used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff.The results are as follows:(1) The abrupt years of precipitation and runoff are 1985 and1989,respectively;(2) Human activity is the main factor leading to runoff change,accounting for about 67.62% of runoff change;followed by climate change,which accounts for about 32.38%of runoff change.The results can provide references for the water resources management department in formulating the water resources planning plan for the river basin.
引文
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[17]Budyko M I.Climate and life[M].San Diego,CA.:Academic Press,1974.
[18]孙福宝,杨大文,刘志雨,等.基于Budyko假设的黄河流域水热耦合平衡规律研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(4):409-416.SUN Fubao,YANG Dawen,LIU Zhiyu,et al.Study on coupled water-energy balance in Yellow River basin based on Budyko hypothesis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(4):409-416.
[19]王丽娜.气候变化对黄河上游流域径流影响分析[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(1):182-192.WANG Lina.Impact analysis of climate change on the upper reaches of Yellow River runoff[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2015,13(1):182-192.
[20]康玲玲,余辉,王金花,等.气候变化对黄河唐乃亥以上地区径流量的影响[J].水力发电,2005,31(7):22-24.KANG Lingling,YU Hui,WANG Jinhua,et al.Effect of climate variation on natural runoff in Tangnaihai and its upstream of the Yellow River[J].Water Power,2005,31(7):22-24.
[2]杨飞.气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响研究——以北洛河流域为例[D].西安:长安大学,2011.YANG Fei.Study on the impact of climatie change and human activities on water resources—based on the Northern Luo River basin[D].Xi’an:Chang’an University,2011.
[3]陈超,庞艳梅,潘学标,等.气候变化背景下四川省气候资源变化趋势分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1310-1316.CHEN Chao,PANG Yanmei,PAN Xuebiao,et al.Characteristics of climate resources under global climate change in Sichuan province[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1310-1316.
[4]张连鹏,刘登峰,张鸿雪,等.气候变化和人类活动对北洛河径流的影响[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(7):55-66.ZHANG Lianpeng,LIU Dengfeng,ZHANG Hongxue,et al.Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff variation in Beiluo River basin[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(7):55-66.
[5]李斌,李丽娟,覃驭楚,等.基于Budyko假设评估洮儿河流域中上游气候变化的径流影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):70-76.LI Bin,LI Lijuan,QIN Yuchu,et al.Impacts of climate variability on streamflow in the upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River based on the Budyko hypothesis[J].Resources Science,2011,33(1):70-76.
[6]卞玉敏,吕海深,谈娟娟,等.基于Budyko假设的流域水量平衡研究[J].人民长江,2014,45(3):24-28.BIAN Yumin,LHaishen,TAN Juanjuan,et al.Study on watershed water balance based on Budyko hypothesis[J].Yangtze River,2014,45(3):24-28.
[7]YANG H,QI J,XU X,et al.The regional variation in climate elasticity and climate contribution to runoff across China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,517(1):607-616.
[8]刘剑宇,张强,陈喜,等.气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1875-1885.LIU Jianyu,ZHANG Qiang,CHEN Xi,et al.Quantitative evaluations of human-and climate-induced impacts on hydrological processes of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(11):1875-1885.
[9]郭生练,郭家力,侯雨坤,等.基于Budyko假设预测长江流域未来径流量变化[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):151-160.GUO Shenglian,GUO Jiali,HOU Yukun,et al.Prediction of future runoff change based on Budyko hypothesis in Yangtze River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2015,26(2):151-160.
[10]刘艳丽,王国庆,金君良,等.基于Budyko假设的环境变化对流域径流影响的界定[J].水利水运工程学报,2014,(6):1-8.LIU Yanli,WANG Guoqing,JIN Junliang,et al.An attribution method for catchment-scale runoff variation evaluation under environmental change based on Budyko hypothesis[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2014,(6):1-8.
[11]白夏,王义民,戚晓明,等.黄河上游径流统计特征及演变规律分析[J].人民黄河,2016,38(9):4-7.BAI Xia,WANG Yimin,QI Xiaoming,et al.Analysis of statistical characteristics and evolution law of runoff in the upper Yellow River[J].Yellow River,2016,38(9):4-7.
[12]于东平.气候变化对青海省东部地区农业的影响[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2012.YU Dongping.The effect of climate changes on agriculture in the eastern region of Qinghai province[D].Yangling:Northwest A&F University,2012.
[13]朱良燕,毛军军,苗强,等.合肥市降水变化趋势分形特征分析与预测[J].计算机技术与发展,2009,19(9):17-20.ZHU Liangyan,MAO Junjun,MIAO Qiang,et al.Analysis of precipitation changes trend fractal features and forecasts in Hefei[J].Computer Technology and Development,2009,19(9):17-20.
[14]林凯荣,何艳虎,雷旭,等.深圳市1960—2009年降雨时空变化分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2013,(3):18-23.LIN Kairong,HE Yanhu,LEI Xu,et al.An analysis of the temporal and spatial variation of the precipitation between 1960and 2009in Shenzhen City[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013,(3):18-23.
[15]黄翠秋,郭纯青,代俊峰,等.南流江流域降水序列变化的特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(4):6-8.HUANG Cuiqiu,GUO Chunqing,DAI Junfeng,et al.Characteristics analysis of rainfall variation in Nanliujiang basin[J].Water Resources and Power,2012,30(4):6-8.
[16]郝振纯,杨荣榕,陈新美,等.1960—2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(2):408-419.HAO Zhenchun,YANG Rongrong,CHEN Xinmei,et al.Tempo-spatial patterns of the potential evaporation in the Yangtze River catchment for the period1960—2011[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(2):408-419.
[17]Budyko M I.Climate and life[M].San Diego,CA.:Academic Press,1974.
[18]孙福宝,杨大文,刘志雨,等.基于Budyko假设的黄河流域水热耦合平衡规律研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(4):409-416.SUN Fubao,YANG Dawen,LIU Zhiyu,et al.Study on coupled water-energy balance in Yellow River basin based on Budyko hypothesis[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2007,38(4):409-416.
[19]王丽娜.气候变化对黄河上游流域径流影响分析[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2015,13(1):182-192.WANG Lina.Impact analysis of climate change on the upper reaches of Yellow River runoff[J].Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,2015,13(1):182-192.
[20]康玲玲,余辉,王金花,等.气候变化对黄河唐乃亥以上地区径流量的影响[J].水力发电,2005,31(7):22-24.KANG Lingling,YU Hui,WANG Jinhua,et al.Effect of climate variation on natural runoff in Tangnaihai and its upstream of the Yellow River[J].Water Power,2005,31(7):22-24.
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