定量评估参数不确定性传递对径流模拟的影响
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摘要
水文模型是模拟流域水文过程的重要工具,其参数的不确定性降低了模拟精度。为了定量探究参数不确定性对径流模拟的影响,文章基于构建的子午河流域SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型,采用析因分析方差分解方法评估其影响。结果表明:不同流量下参数不确定性对径流模拟影响差异明显,低流量时参数不确定性影响大,高流量时其影响小;对水文响应最敏感的参数依次为主河道传输损失流量进入深层含水层的比例系数、主河道河床有效导水率和土壤饱和导水。主河道传输损失流量进入深层含水层的比例系数与土壤饱和导水率之间的交互作用,主河道河床有效导水率与土壤饱和导水率之间的交互作用对径流模拟影响显著。结果可为降低水文模型参数不确定性的影响提供参考。
Hydrological modeling is a key tool for analyzing the hydrological process of a river basin,but uncertainties in its parameters reduce the accuracy and applicability. This paper examines the influence of parameter uncertainties on runoff simulations, using a variance decomposition method of factor analysis along with a case study of the runoff calculated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. The results show that under different floods, the influence of parameter uncertainties on the simulations is obviously different and it is larger in the case of lower flows than higher flows. From more to less sensitive to hydrological responses, the parameters can be listed as: fraction of main channel transmission losses partitioned to the deep aquifer, effective hydraulic conductivity of the channel bed,and saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil. Interaction of the first or second parameters with the third also produces a significant influence on the simulations. This study would help reduce the impact of the parameter uncertainties in hydrological modeling.
Hydrological modeling is a key tool for analyzing the hydrological process of a river basin,but uncertainties in its parameters reduce the accuracy and applicability. This paper examines the influence of parameter uncertainties on runoff simulations, using a variance decomposition method of factor analysis along with a case study of the runoff calculated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. The results show that under different floods, the influence of parameter uncertainties on the simulations is obviously different and it is larger in the case of lower flows than higher flows. From more to less sensitive to hydrological responses, the parameters can be listed as: fraction of main channel transmission losses partitioned to the deep aquifer, effective hydraulic conductivity of the channel bed,and saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil. Interaction of the first or second parameters with the third also produces a significant influence on the simulations. This study would help reduce the impact of the parameter uncertainties in hydrological modeling.
引文
[1]雷晓辉,王浩,廖卫红,等.变化环境下气象水文预报研究进展[J].水利学报,2018,49(1):9-18.LEI Xiaohui,WANG Hao,LIAO Weihong,et al.Advances in hydro-meteorological forecast under changing environment[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2018,49(1):9-18.(in Chinese)
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[7]白淑英,王莉,史建桥,等.基于SWAT模型的开都河流域径流模拟[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(9):79-84.BAI Shuying,WANG Li,SHI Jianqiao,et al.Runoff simulation for Kaidu River basin based on SWAT model[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources&Environment,2013,27(9):79-84.(in Chinese)
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[9]杨小强,石朋,包为民,等.SWAT模型在淮河息县流域的参数敏感性及不确定性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):33-36.YANG Xiaoqiang,SHI Peng,BAO Weimin,et al.The parameters sensitivity and uncertainty of SWAT model and its application in Xixian River Basin,the Huaihe River[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013(10):33-36.(in Chinese)
[10]张德健.分布式水文模型SWAT的改进研究[D].福州:福建师范大学,2016.ZHANG Dejian.Improvement and application of the soil and water assessment tool[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[11]杨军军,高小红,李其江,等.湟水流域SWAT模型构建及参数不确定性分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):82-88.YANG Junjun,GAO Xiaohong,LI Qijiang,et al.SWATmodel construction and uncertainty analysis on its parameters for the Huangshui River Basin[J].Research of Soil&Water Conservation,2013,20(1):82-88.(in Chinese)
[12]李谦,张静,宫辉力.基于SUFI-2算法和SWAT模型的妫水河流域水文模拟及参数不确定性分析[J].水文,2015(3):43-48.LI Qian,ZHANG Jing,GONG Huili.Hydrological simulation and parameter uncertainty analysis using SWAT model based on SUIF-2 algorithm for Guishuihe River Basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2015(3):43-48.(in Chinese)
[13]KOUCHI D H,ESMAILI K,FARIDHOSSEINI A,et al.Sensitivity of calibrated parameters and water resource estimates on different objective functions and optimization algorithms[J].Water,2017,9(6):384.
[14]KHOI D N,THOM V T.Parameter uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river catchment of Vietnam[J].Global Ecology&Conservation,2015,4:538-548.
[15]SELLAMI H,JEUNESSE I L,BENABDALLAH S,et al.Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2013,58(8):1635-1657.
[16]刘伟,安伟,马金锋.SWAT模型径流模拟的校正与不确定性分析[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):30-35.LIU Wei,AN Wei,MA Jinfeng.Calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff simulation by SWAT model[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(15):30-35.(in Chinese)
[17]TRUDEL M,DOUCET-GéNéREUX P L,LECONTE R,et al.Assessing river low-flow uncertainties related to hydrological model calibration and structure under climate change conditions[J].Climate,2017,5(1):19.
[18]MULETA M K.Improving model performance using season-based evaluation[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2012,17(1):191-200.
[19]LEGATES D R,MCCABE JR G J.Evaluating the use of“goodness-of-fit”measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(1):233-241.
[20]郭晓军,崔鹏,庄建琦,等.SCS模型在泥石流多发区降雨-径流模拟中的应用:以云南省蒋家沟流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2010,30(2):225-228.GUO Xiaojun,CUI Peng,ZHUANG Jianqi,et al.SCSmodel and its application to rainfall-runoff in debris activity region:A case from Jiangjiagou Watershed of Yunnan Province[J].Bulletin of Soil&Water Conservation,2010,30(2):225-228.(in Chinese)
[21]LI Z,LIU D,HUANG Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of hydrological condition in the Ziwu River Basin of the Han River in China[J].Proceedings of IAHS,2018,379:313-321.
[22]左德鹏,徐宗学.基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的渭河流域月径流分布式模拟[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):490-496.ZUO Depeng,XU Zongxue.Distributed hydrological simulation using SWAT and SUFI-2 in the Weihe River Basin[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(5):490-496.(in Chinese)
[23]郭军庭.潮河流域土地利用/气候变化的水文响应研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.GUO Junting.Hydrological responses to land use change and climate variability in the Chaohe Watershed[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2012.(in Chinese)
[24]ZHOU Y,HUANG G H.Factorial two-stage stochastic programming for water resources management[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2011,25(1):67-78.
[25]MARTENS H,M?GE I,T?NDEL K,et al.Multi-level binary replacement(MBR)design for computer experiments in high-dimensional nonlinear systems[J].Journal of Chemometrics,2010,24:748-756.
[26]WAGENER T,MCINTYRE N,LEES M J,et al.Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling:Dynamic identifiability analysis[J].Hydrological Processes,2003,17(2):455-476.
[27]刘登峰,田富强,黄强.基于代表性单元的流域水沙耦合模型及其应用[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(4):22-30.LIU Dengfeng,TIAN Fuqiang,HUANG Qiang.Tsinghua hydrological model based on representative elementary watershed coupling sediment and its application[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(4):22-30.(in Chinese)
[2]徐宗学,程磊.分布式水文模型研究与应用进展[J].水利学报,2010,41(9):1009-1017.XU Zongxue,CHENG Lei.Progress on studies and applications of the distributed hydrological models[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(9):1009-1017.(in Chinese)
[3]SIVAPALAN M,TAKEUCHI K,FRANKS S W,et al.IAHSdecade on predictions in Ungauged Basins(PUB),2003-2012:Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2003,48(6):857-880.
[4]薛晨.基于SWAT模型的产流产沙模拟与模型参数不确定性分析[D].北京:华北电力大学(北京),2011.XUE Chen.SWAT-aided surface runoff and sediment yield modeling and parameter un-certainty analysis[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2011.(in Chinese)
[5]夏智宏,周月华,许红梅.基于SWAT模型的汉江流域径流模拟[J].气象,2009,35(9):59-67.XIA Zhihong,ZHOU Yuehua,XU Hongmei.Runoff simulation in Hanjiang River Basin based on SWAT model[J].Meteorological Monthly,2009,35(9):59-67.(in Chinese)
[6]杨满根,陈星.气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量影响的SWAT模拟[J].生态学报,2017,37(23):8107-8116.YANG Mangen,CHEN Xing.Effects of climate change on extreme streamflow in flood season in the upper and middle basin of the Huaihe River by SWAT simulation[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(23):8107-8116.(in Chinese)
[7]白淑英,王莉,史建桥,等.基于SWAT模型的开都河流域径流模拟[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(9):79-84.BAI Shuying,WANG Li,SHI Jianqiao,et al.Runoff simulation for Kaidu River basin based on SWAT model[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources&Environment,2013,27(9):79-84.(in Chinese)
[8]杨祎.SWAT模型径流模拟的不确定性研究:以东苕溪上游小流域为例[D].杭州:浙江大学,2014.YANG Yi.The umcertainty in runoff simulation modeled by SWAT:A case study in the upstream catchment of Tiaoxi River wastershed[D].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2014.(in Chinese)
[9]杨小强,石朋,包为民,等.SWAT模型在淮河息县流域的参数敏感性及不确定性研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2013(10):33-36.YANG Xiaoqiang,SHI Peng,BAO Weimin,et al.The parameters sensitivity and uncertainty of SWAT model and its application in Xixian River Basin,the Huaihe River[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2013(10):33-36.(in Chinese)
[10]张德健.分布式水文模型SWAT的改进研究[D].福州:福建师范大学,2016.ZHANG Dejian.Improvement and application of the soil and water assessment tool[D].Fuzhou:Fujian Normal University,2016.(in Chinese)
[11]杨军军,高小红,李其江,等.湟水流域SWAT模型构建及参数不确定性分析[J].水土保持研究,2013,20(1):82-88.YANG Junjun,GAO Xiaohong,LI Qijiang,et al.SWATmodel construction and uncertainty analysis on its parameters for the Huangshui River Basin[J].Research of Soil&Water Conservation,2013,20(1):82-88.(in Chinese)
[12]李谦,张静,宫辉力.基于SUFI-2算法和SWAT模型的妫水河流域水文模拟及参数不确定性分析[J].水文,2015(3):43-48.LI Qian,ZHANG Jing,GONG Huili.Hydrological simulation and parameter uncertainty analysis using SWAT model based on SUIF-2 algorithm for Guishuihe River Basin[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2015(3):43-48.(in Chinese)
[13]KOUCHI D H,ESMAILI K,FARIDHOSSEINI A,et al.Sensitivity of calibrated parameters and water resource estimates on different objective functions and optimization algorithms[J].Water,2017,9(6):384.
[14]KHOI D N,THOM V T.Parameter uncertainty analysis for simulating streamflow in a river catchment of Vietnam[J].Global Ecology&Conservation,2015,4:538-548.
[15]SELLAMI H,JEUNESSE I L,BENABDALLAH S,et al.Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2013,58(8):1635-1657.
[16]刘伟,安伟,马金锋.SWAT模型径流模拟的校正与不确定性分析[J].人民长江,2016,47(15):30-35.LIU Wei,AN Wei,MA Jinfeng.Calibration and uncertainty analysis of runoff simulation by SWAT model[J].Yangtze River,2016,47(15):30-35.(in Chinese)
[17]TRUDEL M,DOUCET-GéNéREUX P L,LECONTE R,et al.Assessing river low-flow uncertainties related to hydrological model calibration and structure under climate change conditions[J].Climate,2017,5(1):19.
[18]MULETA M K.Improving model performance using season-based evaluation[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2012,17(1):191-200.
[19]LEGATES D R,MCCABE JR G J.Evaluating the use of“goodness-of-fit”measures in hydrologic and hydroclimatic model validation[J].Water Resources Research,1999,35(1):233-241.
[20]郭晓军,崔鹏,庄建琦,等.SCS模型在泥石流多发区降雨-径流模拟中的应用:以云南省蒋家沟流域为例[J].水土保持通报,2010,30(2):225-228.GUO Xiaojun,CUI Peng,ZHUANG Jianqi,et al.SCSmodel and its application to rainfall-runoff in debris activity region:A case from Jiangjiagou Watershed of Yunnan Province[J].Bulletin of Soil&Water Conservation,2010,30(2):225-228.(in Chinese)
[21]LI Z,LIU D,HUANG Q,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of hydrological condition in the Ziwu River Basin of the Han River in China[J].Proceedings of IAHS,2018,379:313-321.
[22]左德鹏,徐宗学.基于SWAT模型和SUFI-2算法的渭河流域月径流分布式模拟[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):490-496.ZUO Depeng,XU Zongxue.Distributed hydrological simulation using SWAT and SUFI-2 in the Weihe River Basin[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(5):490-496.(in Chinese)
[23]郭军庭.潮河流域土地利用/气候变化的水文响应研究[D].北京:北京林业大学,2012.GUO Junting.Hydrological responses to land use change and climate variability in the Chaohe Watershed[D].Beijing:Beijing Forestry University,2012.(in Chinese)
[24]ZHOU Y,HUANG G H.Factorial two-stage stochastic programming for water resources management[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2011,25(1):67-78.
[25]MARTENS H,M?GE I,T?NDEL K,et al.Multi-level binary replacement(MBR)design for computer experiments in high-dimensional nonlinear systems[J].Journal of Chemometrics,2010,24:748-756.
[26]WAGENER T,MCINTYRE N,LEES M J,et al.Towards reduced uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling:Dynamic identifiability analysis[J].Hydrological Processes,2003,17(2):455-476.
[27]刘登峰,田富强,黄强.基于代表性单元的流域水沙耦合模型及其应用[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(4):22-30.LIU Dengfeng,TIAN Fuqiang,HUANG Qiang.Tsinghua hydrological model based on representative elementary watershed coupling sediment and its application[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(4):22-30.(in Chinese)