汉江黄金峡以上流域社会经济-生态-水文的变化规律分析
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摘要
在人类活动和气候变化的影响下,人类社会系统和水文系统的关系日益紧密并形成一种动态反馈机制,在跨流域调水的水源区综合治理与保护的背景下,流域的社会经济-生态-水文也在发生改变。以汉江黄金峡以上流域为研究对象,采用回归分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验模型、突变检验等方法分析经济-生态-水文因子的变化规律,应用灰色关联度分析径流变化量与经济指标主成分、生态因子的关联度。结果显示:总人口在2003年发生突变,反映农业发展的因子——耕地面积和粮食总产量在2000年发生了由下降到明显下降的变化,其增长率在2004年发生由下降到上升的变化;反映社会经济发展的因子在2006—2008年间发生了上升到显著上升的变化,其增长率均在生态治理期间呈显著下降趋势;林草地覆盖率呈显著上升趋势,在2007年发生由下降到上升的突变;黄金峡的年径流量整体呈显著下降趋势,在1990年发生突变。汉江生态综合治理对反映社会经济发展水平的因子的增长具有减速的作用,林草地覆盖率和黄金峡的年径流量分别由治理前的不显著增加趋势变为治理后的显著增加趋势,不显著减少趋势变为不显著增加趋势。黄金峡以上流域的经济发展规模指标、农业发展指标和生态因子与黄金峡的年径流变化量的关联度分别为0.690、0.878、0.539,其中农业发展对黄金峡径流量的影响最为明显。
Under the influence of human activities and climate change, the relationship between human social system and hydrological system has become increasingly close and a dynamic feedback mechanism has been formed. Under the background of comprehensive management and protection of water source areas across river basins, the socioeconomy-ecology-hydrology of the basin is also changing. Taking the upper basins of Huangjin Gorge in Hanjiang River as the study object, the regression analysis method, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test model, mutation test and other methods were used to analyze the change law of economy-ecology-hydrology factors, and the gray correlation degree was used to analyze the correlation degree of runoff change with the principal components of economic indicators and ecological factors. The results showed that the total population was mutated in 2003, reflecting the factors of agricultural development—the area of cultivated land and total grain output changed from a decline to a significant decline in 2000, and its growth rate had a change from a decline to a rise in 2004. The factors reflecting social and economic development changed from rising to significantly rising from 2006 to 2008, and their growth rates all showed a significant downward trend during ecological governance. The coverage rate of forest and grassland showed a significant upward trend. In 2007, it experienced a sudden change from decline to increase, and the annual runoff of Huangjin Gorge reservoir showed a significant downward trend as a whole, and there was an abrupt change occurred in 1990. The comprehensive ecological management of the Hanjiang River slowed down the growth of factors reflecting the level of social and economic development. The annual runoff of Huangjin Gorge and the coverage of forest and grassland have changed from the non-significant increasing trend before the treatment to the significant increasing trend after the treatment, and the non-significant decreasing trend has changed to the non-significant increasing trend. The correlation between the economic development scale indicators, agricultural development indicators and ecological factors in the upper basins of Huangjin Gorge and the annual runoff variation of Huangjin Gorge are 0.690, 0.878, and 0.539 respectively, among which the agricultural development has the most obvious influence on the runoff of Huangjin Gorge.
Under the influence of human activities and climate change, the relationship between human social system and hydrological system has become increasingly close and a dynamic feedback mechanism has been formed. Under the background of comprehensive management and protection of water source areas across river basins, the socioeconomy-ecology-hydrology of the basin is also changing. Taking the upper basins of Huangjin Gorge in Hanjiang River as the study object, the regression analysis method, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test model, mutation test and other methods were used to analyze the change law of economy-ecology-hydrology factors, and the gray correlation degree was used to analyze the correlation degree of runoff change with the principal components of economic indicators and ecological factors. The results showed that the total population was mutated in 2003, reflecting the factors of agricultural development—the area of cultivated land and total grain output changed from a decline to a significant decline in 2000, and its growth rate had a change from a decline to a rise in 2004. The factors reflecting social and economic development changed from rising to significantly rising from 2006 to 2008, and their growth rates all showed a significant downward trend during ecological governance. The coverage rate of forest and grassland showed a significant upward trend. In 2007, it experienced a sudden change from decline to increase, and the annual runoff of Huangjin Gorge reservoir showed a significant downward trend as a whole, and there was an abrupt change occurred in 1990. The comprehensive ecological management of the Hanjiang River slowed down the growth of factors reflecting the level of social and economic development. The annual runoff of Huangjin Gorge and the coverage of forest and grassland have changed from the non-significant increasing trend before the treatment to the significant increasing trend after the treatment, and the non-significant decreasing trend has changed to the non-significant increasing trend. The correlation between the economic development scale indicators, agricultural development indicators and ecological factors in the upper basins of Huangjin Gorge and the annual runoff variation of Huangjin Gorge are 0.690, 0.878, and 0.539 respectively, among which the agricultural development has the most obvious influence on the runoff of Huangjin Gorge.
引文
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[12] 程燕,潘兴良.西部大开发农民收入增长趋势分析:基于Mann-Kendall非参数检验模型[J].农业技术经济,2012(5):97-103.
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[14] 严栋飞,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.汉江上游径流变化趋势及特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(6):13-19.
[2] PEEL M C,BL?SCHL G.Hydrological modelling in a changing world[J].Progress in physical geography,2011,35(2):249-261.
[3] 史淑娟,李怀恩,刘利年,等.南水北调中线水源区生态补偿研究现状与展望[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2009,39(6):1084-1087.
[4] 李怀恩,肖燕,党志良.水资源保护的发展机会损失评价[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2010,40(2):339-342.
[5] 汤秋鸿,黄忠伟,刘星才,等.人类用水活动对大尺度陆地水循环的影响[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(10):1091-1099.
[6] 夏军,马协一,邹磊,等.气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):1-6.
[7] 徐中民,钟方雷,焦文献.水-生态-经济系统中人文因素作用研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2008(7):723-731.
[8] 祁丽霞,杨承佳,王国帅.河南省水资源与经济社会发展状况匹配关系的研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(2):30-36.
[9] 王心睿,刘登峰,陈娜,等.渭河流域径流系数的演变规律研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014(3):138-142.
[10] 王延安.汉江流域汉中段水文特性分析[J].陕西水利,2011(2):133-134.
[11] WEI Xiu,LIU Dengfeng,LUAN Jinkai,et al.Analysis of the changing laws and Influencing factors of social and economic indicators in the upper reach of Han River basin[J].Universal journal of geoscience,2018,6(3):55-64.
[12] 程燕,潘兴良.西部大开发农民收入增长趋势分析:基于Mann-Kendall非参数检验模型[J].农业技术经济,2012(5):97-103.
[13] 严文高,李鹏.农村税费改革视角下的中部地区农民收入增长趋势分析:基于Mann-Kendall非参数检验模型[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):62-69.
[14] 严栋飞,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.汉江上游径流变化趋势及特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(6):13-19.
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