白龙江流域舟曲县城区地质灾害危险性评价
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摘要
地质灾害危险性评价对城镇国土空间规划与防灾减灾管理具有重要的意义,目前地质灾害危险性评价方法较多,但主要集中在对区域或单体地质灾害的危险性评价研究,对城镇尺度地质灾害危险性评价较少。该文以地质灾害高发的舟曲县城区为研究对象,以网格划分为评价单元,以1:10 000地质灾害详细调查数据为基础。根据斜坡岩土体物理力学性质及侵蚀特征,利用无限边坡模型计算不同栅格单元的稳定性,并结合斜坡破坏概率及构建的斜坡滑动距离评价了城区斜坡危险性,在此基础上采用FLO-2D模型进行了泥石流灾害危险性评价,最后在arcgis平台下综合城区斜坡和泥石流危险性评价结果,完成了舟曲县城区50年一遇降雨条件下地质灾害危险性评价及区划。评价结果表明:舟曲县城区地质灾害高危险区面积6. 43 km2,共发育灾害点32处,威胁承灾体面积640. 29万m2;中危险区面积5. 15 km2,共发育灾害点7处,威胁承灾体面积509. 73万m2;低危险区及以下面积15. 80 km2,共发育灾害点3处,威胁承灾体面积1 527. 82万m2。该评价方法在一定程度上完善了城镇尺度的地质灾害危险性评价过程,并为舟曲县城区地质灾害防治提供参考。
Geological hazard risk assessment is of great significance to urban land spatial planning and disaster prevention and mitigation management. At present,there are many methods for assessing the risk of geological hazards,but they mainly focus on regional or individual geological hazards,and less on urban-scale geological hazards. In this paper,Zhouqu County,a city with high incidence of geological hazards,is taken as the research object. The grid is divided into evaluation units and the detailed survey data of 1: 10000 geological hazards are taken as the basis. According to the physical and mechanical properties and erosion characteristics of slope rock and soil,the stability of different grid elements is calculated by infinite slope model,and the risk of urban slope is evaluated by combining the failure probability of slope and the sliding distance of slope constructed. On this basis,the risk of debris flow disaster is evaluated by using FLO-2 D model. Finally,the risk of urban slope and debris flow is synthesized under ArcGIS platform. According to the results of sex evaluation,the risk assessment and regionalization of geological hazards in Zhouqu County under the condition of once-in-50-year rainfall have been completed. The evaluation result shows that the high risk area of geological disaster in Zhouqu county is 6. 43 km2 with 32 disaster sites and 640. 29 × 104 m2 of the threatened area. The middle dangerous area is 5. 15 km2 with 7 disaster spots,and the area of disaster-bearing body is 509. 73 × 1104 m2. The low-risk area is 15. 80 km2 with 3 disaster spots,and the area of disaster-bearing body is 1527. 82 × 104 m2. The evaluation method in the study improves the process of risk assessment of geological hazards at the urban scale and provides a reference for the prevention and control of geological hazards in Zhouqu county.
Geological hazard risk assessment is of great significance to urban land spatial planning and disaster prevention and mitigation management. At present,there are many methods for assessing the risk of geological hazards,but they mainly focus on regional or individual geological hazards,and less on urban-scale geological hazards. In this paper,Zhouqu County,a city with high incidence of geological hazards,is taken as the research object. The grid is divided into evaluation units and the detailed survey data of 1: 10000 geological hazards are taken as the basis. According to the physical and mechanical properties and erosion characteristics of slope rock and soil,the stability of different grid elements is calculated by infinite slope model,and the risk of urban slope is evaluated by combining the failure probability of slope and the sliding distance of slope constructed. On this basis,the risk of debris flow disaster is evaluated by using FLO-2 D model. Finally,the risk of urban slope and debris flow is synthesized under ArcGIS platform. According to the results of sex evaluation,the risk assessment and regionalization of geological hazards in Zhouqu County under the condition of once-in-50-year rainfall have been completed. The evaluation result shows that the high risk area of geological disaster in Zhouqu county is 6. 43 km2 with 32 disaster sites and 640. 29 × 104 m2 of the threatened area. The middle dangerous area is 5. 15 km2 with 7 disaster spots,and the area of disaster-bearing body is 509. 73 × 1104 m2. The low-risk area is 15. 80 km2 with 3 disaster spots,and the area of disaster-bearing body is 1527. 82 × 104 m2. The evaluation method in the study improves the process of risk assessment of geological hazards at the urban scale and provides a reference for the prevention and control of geological hazards in Zhouqu county.
引文
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[15]姬怡微,李成,高帅,等.陕西省韩城市地质灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2018,33(3):194-200.
[16]吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):995-1005.
[17]王高峰,高幼龙,王洪德,等.基于图幅调查的六盘山镇滑坡易发性研究[J].科学技术与工程,2017,17(36):22-29.
[18]王高峰,杨强,田运涛,等.泥石流易发性评价模型的构建-以白龙江流域石门乡羊汤河段为例[J].干旱区研究,2019,36(3):761-770.
[19]辛鹏,吴树仁,石菊松,等.基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究[J].地球学报,2012,33(3):349-359.
[20]黄诗峰,钟邵南,徐美.基于GIS的流域土壤侵蚀量估算指标模型方法-以嘉陵江上游西汉水流域为例[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2):105-107.
[21]唐亚明.陕北黄土滑坡风险评价及监测预警技术方法研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2012:94-124.
[22]陈语,李天斌,曾鹏.致灾因素耦合作用下堆积体斜坡失稳概率研究[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(4):60-66.
[23]黄勋,唐川.基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(10):1047-1055.
[24]余斌.不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度计算方法研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(2):207-221.
[25] Brien J S. FLO-2D Reference Manual[R]. 2009.
[26]刘希林,庙成,田春山.区域滑坡和泥石流灾害两种危险性评价方法的比较分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2017,37(1):71-78.
[2]任非凡,谌文武,韩文峰. G212线陇南段泥石流发育成因及其时空分布特征分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(S1):3237-3243.
[3]陈循谦.白龙江中游的泥石流灾害[J].灾害学,1987(4):36-42.
[4]黄江成,欧国强,柳金峰.白龙江干流泥石流分布特征及危险度评价[J].人民长江,2011,33(6):105-107.
[5]魏兴丽,何建勋,于国强.不同降雨特征条件下舟曲县地质灾害危险性区划[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(3):224-229.
[6]许晓霞,张福平,王有林,等.基于GIS和RS的舟曲县地质灾害易发性评价[J].甘肃科学学报,2015,27(6):26-31.
[7]陈玉.基于经验权重方法的舟曲县泥石流易发性评估[J].防灾科技学院学报,2013,15(4):54-59.
[8]舒和平,刘东飞,顾春杰,等.中下尺度区域泥石流灾害风险评价[J].山地学报,2014,32(6):754-760.
[9]舒和平,韩拓,齐识,等.甘肃省南部泥石流运动规律的分析与研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(3):119-124.
[10]于国强,张茂省,王根龙,等.基于FLAC3D的三眼峪小流域危险性分析[J].西北地质,2011,44(3):87-94.
[11]唐亚明,李军,李瑞冬,等.舟曲三眼峪泥石流风险评价[J].西北地质,2011,44(3):81-86.
[12]宿星,吴玮江,叶伟林,等.甘肃舟曲县龙江新村滑坡特征及稳定性[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2014,50(1):7-14.
[13]蒋树,文宝萍,黎志恒,等.甘肃舟曲锁儿头滑坡活动特征分析[J].水文地质工程地质,2016,43(2):69-74.
[14]牛全福,冯尊斌,张映雪,等.基于GIS的兰州地区滑坡灾害孕灾环境敏感性评价[J].灾害学,2017,32(3):29-35.
[15]姬怡微,李成,高帅,等.陕西省韩城市地质灾害风险评估[J].灾害学,2018,33(3):194-200.
[16]吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):995-1005.
[17]王高峰,高幼龙,王洪德,等.基于图幅调查的六盘山镇滑坡易发性研究[J].科学技术与工程,2017,17(36):22-29.
[18]王高峰,杨强,田运涛,等.泥石流易发性评价模型的构建-以白龙江流域石门乡羊汤河段为例[J].干旱区研究,2019,36(3):761-770.
[19]辛鹏,吴树仁,石菊松,等.基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究[J].地球学报,2012,33(3):349-359.
[20]黄诗峰,钟邵南,徐美.基于GIS的流域土壤侵蚀量估算指标模型方法-以嘉陵江上游西汉水流域为例[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(2):105-107.
[21]唐亚明.陕北黄土滑坡风险评价及监测预警技术方法研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2012:94-124.
[22]陈语,李天斌,曾鹏.致灾因素耦合作用下堆积体斜坡失稳概率研究[J].长江科学院院报,2018,35(4):60-66.
[23]黄勋,唐川.基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价[J].地球科学进展,2016,31(10):1047-1055.
[24]余斌.不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度计算方法研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2010,30(2):207-221.
[25] Brien J S. FLO-2D Reference Manual[R]. 2009.
[26]刘希林,庙成,田春山.区域滑坡和泥石流灾害两种危险性评价方法的比较分析[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2017,37(1):71-78.
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