PM_(2.5)污染与健康支出:时间滞后效应与空间溢出效应
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摘要
基于ArcGIS技术解析卫星栅格数据,获得2002—2015年中国31个省级的PM_(2.5)平均质量浓度和最大质量浓度,采用空间杜宾模型,定量考察PM_(2.5)污染对健康支出影响的时间滞后效应和空间溢出效应。结果表明:1)当期的PM_(2.5)平均质量浓度对人均就诊次数的影响不显著,而滞后一期的PM_(2.5)平均质量浓度的系数显著为正,表明PM_(2.5)污染对人均就诊次数的影响具有时间滞后效应; 2)通过更换代理变量的方式进行稳健性检验,估算结果依然显著; 3)空间模型分析表明,PM_(2.5)污染具有较强的空间传递性,一个地区的健康风险不仅来源于本地区的PM_(2.5)污染,还有很大一部分风险来源于邻近地区的PM_(2.5)污染。在宏观上为PM_(2.5)污染对健康支出的影响提供了证据,也为区域制定PM_(2.5)污染的联防联控机制提供了依据。
The paper has managed to obtain the average concentration and the maximum concentration values of the PM_(2.5) pollution from 2002 to 2015 in the 31 provinces of our country by analyzing the satellite raster data in hoping to work out the time lag effect and the spatial spillover effects of such a kind of pollution on the harm of the human health through the spatial Durban model,the spatial error model and the temporal lag mode in terms of Arc GIS. The results of our investigation indicate that:( 1) The analysis of Moran's I find that PM_(2.5) pollution features as the Spatial dependence dependent,with its pollution done interactive with each other over the regions;( 2) The average concentration rate of PM_(2.5) has no significant effect on the number of doctorsvisiting in the current period,whereas the coefficient of the average PM_(2.5) concentration rate for the lag phase concerned may have noticeable effect on the human health,which shows that the impact of the haze pollution tends to have a significant time lag effect on the number of outpatients on the individual term;( 3)If the health expenditure per capita can be used as an alternative variable to measure the health expenditure and the maximum PM_(2.5) pollution concentration as the average PM_(2.5) pollution concentration,the results may show that PM_(2.5) pollution has also had its own time lag effect on the human health expenditure;( 4) If the impact of PM_(2.5) pollution impact can be divided into two sections,the direct impact and the indirect impact( spatial spillover effect),it can be found that the spatial spillover impact tends to be greater than that of the direct. Thus,it can be concluded that the spatial diffusion of PM_(2.5) pollution in our country turns out to be very strong,though the spatial spillover effect is also significant. Thus,it can be said that the investigation we have done on the PM_(2.5) pollution enjoys a spatial and time-lag effect on the human health consumption,which may bring about empirical evidence on account of the human health effects of the pollution with latency and spatial contagion,so as to enrich the research literature on the pollution and health detriment on the scientific basis in the joint prevention and control mechanism of the PM_(2.5) pollution.
The paper has managed to obtain the average concentration and the maximum concentration values of the PM_(2.5) pollution from 2002 to 2015 in the 31 provinces of our country by analyzing the satellite raster data in hoping to work out the time lag effect and the spatial spillover effects of such a kind of pollution on the harm of the human health through the spatial Durban model,the spatial error model and the temporal lag mode in terms of Arc GIS. The results of our investigation indicate that:( 1) The analysis of Moran's I find that PM_(2.5) pollution features as the Spatial dependence dependent,with its pollution done interactive with each other over the regions;( 2) The average concentration rate of PM_(2.5) has no significant effect on the number of doctorsvisiting in the current period,whereas the coefficient of the average PM_(2.5) concentration rate for the lag phase concerned may have noticeable effect on the human health,which shows that the impact of the haze pollution tends to have a significant time lag effect on the number of outpatients on the individual term;( 3)If the health expenditure per capita can be used as an alternative variable to measure the health expenditure and the maximum PM_(2.5) pollution concentration as the average PM_(2.5) pollution concentration,the results may show that PM_(2.5) pollution has also had its own time lag effect on the human health expenditure;( 4) If the impact of PM_(2.5) pollution impact can be divided into two sections,the direct impact and the indirect impact( spatial spillover effect),it can be found that the spatial spillover impact tends to be greater than that of the direct. Thus,it can be concluded that the spatial diffusion of PM_(2.5) pollution in our country turns out to be very strong,though the spatial spillover effect is also significant. Thus,it can be said that the investigation we have done on the PM_(2.5) pollution enjoys a spatial and time-lag effect on the human health consumption,which may bring about empirical evidence on account of the human health effects of the pollution with latency and spatial contagion,so as to enrich the research literature on the pollution and health detriment on the scientific basis in the joint prevention and control mechanism of the PM_(2.5) pollution.
引文
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[15] CHEN R,PAN G,ZHANG Y,et al. Ambient carbonmonoxide and daily mortality in three Chinese cities:TheChina air pollution and health effects study(CAPES)[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2011,409(23):4923-4928.
[16] ZHOU M,LIU Y,WANG L,et al. Particulate air pol-lution and mortality in a cohort of Chinese men[J]. En-vironmental Pollution,2014,186:1-6.
[17] POPE C A,SCHWARTZ J. Time series for the analysisof pulmonary health data[J]. American Journal of Re-spiratory and Critical Care Medicine,1996,154(6):229-233.
[18] ZANOBETTI A,WAND M P,SCHWARTZ J,et al.Generalized additive distributed lag models:quantifyingmortality displacement[J]. Biostatistics,2000,1(3):279-292.
[19] SHAO Shuai(邵帅),LI Xin(李欣),CAO Jianhua(曹建华),et al. China's economic policy choice for smogand haze pollution control from the perspective of spatialspillover effect[J]. Economic Research(经济研究),2016(9):73-88.
[2] ZHENG S,KAHN M E. A new era of pollution progressin urbanization China?[J]. Journal of Economic Per-spectives,2017,31(1):71-92.
[3] BRUNEKREEF B,HOLGATE S T. Air pollution and health[J]. The Lancet,2002,360(9341):1233-1242.
[4] BOUTOU A K,SHRIKRISHNA D,TANNER R J,et al.Lung function indices for predicting mortality in COPD[J]. European Respiratory Journal,2013,42(3):616-625.
[5] ZHANG Qingfeng(张庆丰). Towards on environment sus-tainable future:national environmental analysis of thePeople's Republic of China(走向环境可持续未来:中华人民共和国国家环境分析)[M]. Beijing:China Finan-cial&Economic Publishing House,2012.
[6] XIA Guang(夏光),ZHAO Yihong(赵毅红). Econo-metrics and research on environmental pollution losses inChina[J]. Management World(管理世界),1995(6):198-205.
[7] PATANKAR A M,TRIVEDI P L. Monetary burden ofhealth impacts of air pollution in Mumbai,India:implica-tions for public health policy[J]. Public Health,2011,125(3):157-164.
[8] BOLDO E,MEDINA S,TERTRE A L,et al. Apheis:health impact assessment of long-term exposure to PM2. 5,in 23 European cities[J]. European Journal of Epidemiol-ogy,2006,21(6):449-458.
[9] BELL M L,DOMINICI F,ZEGER S L,et al. Spatialand temporal variation in PM2. 5chemical composition inthe United States for health effects studies[J]. Environ-mental Health Perspectives,2007,115(7):989-995.
[10] FANN N,LAMSON A D,ANENBERG S C,et al. Esti-mating the national public health burden associated withexposure to ambient PM2. 5and ozone[J]. Risk Analysis,2012,32(1):81-95.
[11] CAO C,JIANG W,WANG B,et al. Inhalable microor-ganisms in Beijing’s PM2. 5and PM10pollutants during asevere smog event[J]. Environmental Science&Tech-nology,2014,48(3):1499-1507.
[12] BELL M L,SAMET J M,DOMINICI F. Time-seriesstudies of particulate matter[J]. Annual Review of Pub-lic Health,2004,25(1):247.
[13] DOMINICI F,PENG R D,BELL M L,et al. Fine par-ticulate air pollution and hospital admission for cardio-vascular and respiratory diseases[J]. Jama the Journalof the American Medical Association,2006,295(10):1127-1134.
[14] SAMOLI E,PENG R,RAMSAY T,et al. Acute effectsof ambient particulate matter on mortality in Europe andNorth America:results from the APHENA study[J].Environmental Health Perspectives,2008,116(11):1480-1486.
[15] CHEN R,PAN G,ZHANG Y,et al. Ambient carbonmonoxide and daily mortality in three Chinese cities:TheChina air pollution and health effects study(CAPES)[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2011,409(23):4923-4928.
[16] ZHOU M,LIU Y,WANG L,et al. Particulate air pol-lution and mortality in a cohort of Chinese men[J]. En-vironmental Pollution,2014,186:1-6.
[17] POPE C A,SCHWARTZ J. Time series for the analysisof pulmonary health data[J]. American Journal of Re-spiratory and Critical Care Medicine,1996,154(6):229-233.
[18] ZANOBETTI A,WAND M P,SCHWARTZ J,et al.Generalized additive distributed lag models:quantifyingmortality displacement[J]. Biostatistics,2000,1(3):279-292.
[19] SHAO Shuai(邵帅),LI Xin(李欣),CAO Jianhua(曹建华),et al. China's economic policy choice for smogand haze pollution control from the perspective of spatialspillover effect[J]. Economic Research(经济研究),2016(9):73-88.