河西走廊近57年来干旱灾害特征时空演化分析
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摘要
根据1960-2016年河西走廊及其周边地区15个气象站点的逐月降水系列数据,采用标准化降水指数表征年、季的干旱等级,分析了河西走廊的15个气象站点的干旱频率、干旱站次比和干旱强度的演化趋势。结果表明:(1)近57年来,河西走廊地区年尺度、春季、夏季和冬季的干旱站次比均呈减小趋势,秋季干旱站次比呈现出不显著的增加趋势,其中春季和秋季全域性干旱发生的频率都高于29. 8%;(2)河西走廊地区年尺度和四季的干旱强度均呈减小趋势,研究区的干旱强度主要以轻度干旱和中度干旱为主;(3)干旱的空间分布具有明显的区域特征,其中酒泉和玉门是干旱频发地区,河西走廊地区有66. 7%的站点在年和季节尺度上都呈干旱减弱的趋势。干旱的减弱有利于当地的农业生产和生态环境,但是在气候变化的背景下,河西走廊地区局地暴雨和山洪灾害发生的可能性变大,要在抗旱的同时加强洪涝灾害的防御。
Drought is one of the most universal meteorological disasters in China. The occurrence of drought will adversely affect agriculture and ecological environment. In the context of global warming,the drought has become a major challenge facing the world. The Hexi Corridor is an important ecological barrier in the northwest of China. Due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions,the Hexi Corridor is a region that drought happens frequently. The frequent occurrence of drought has become an important factor restricting local agricultural and the utilization of water resources. The SPI index can quantify the precipitation deficit for multiple timescales,which can reflect the impacts of drought on different water resources needed by various decision-makers. It has been widely used in practice. Therefore,based on the monthly precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in Hexi Corridor and its surrounding areas from 1960 to 2016,this paper uses the standardized precipitation index to characterize the annual and seasonal drought grades,analyzing the evolution of drought frequency,the station proportion of drought and drought intensity in Hexi Corridor. Its aim is to reveal the regularity of drought and provide reference for the prevention of drought disaster in Hexi corridor. The results showthat:( 1) In the past57 years,the station proportion of drought in annual,spring,summer and winter showed a decreasing trend in Hexi Corridor,the station proportion of drought in autumn showed an insignificant increase. Among them,the biggest drops of the station proportion of drought was in summer. The frequency of large-scale drought in spring and autumn was higher than 29. 8%.( 2) The drought intensity of the Hexi Corridor showed a decreasing trend at the annual and seasonal scales,among which the drought intensity in summer had the largest decrease. The drought intensity in the study area was dominated by mild drought and moderate drought.( 3) The spatial distribution of drought has obvious regional characteristics,among which the drought of Jiuquan and Yumen were frequently. From the linear trend of the SPI index,66. 7% of the stations in the Hexi Corridor showed a decreasing trend on the annual and seasonal scales. The weakening of the drought is conducive to local agricultural and ecological environment. However,the precipitation and temperature in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor have both increased in the past fewdecades,this will lead to a greater possibility of local heavy rains and mountain flood disaster in the Hexi Corridor. Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the defense of rainstorm and flood disasters at the same time of drought resistance.
Drought is one of the most universal meteorological disasters in China. The occurrence of drought will adversely affect agriculture and ecological environment. In the context of global warming,the drought has become a major challenge facing the world. The Hexi Corridor is an important ecological barrier in the northwest of China. Due to its unique geographical and climatic conditions,the Hexi Corridor is a region that drought happens frequently. The frequent occurrence of drought has become an important factor restricting local agricultural and the utilization of water resources. The SPI index can quantify the precipitation deficit for multiple timescales,which can reflect the impacts of drought on different water resources needed by various decision-makers. It has been widely used in practice. Therefore,based on the monthly precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in Hexi Corridor and its surrounding areas from 1960 to 2016,this paper uses the standardized precipitation index to characterize the annual and seasonal drought grades,analyzing the evolution of drought frequency,the station proportion of drought and drought intensity in Hexi Corridor. Its aim is to reveal the regularity of drought and provide reference for the prevention of drought disaster in Hexi corridor. The results showthat:( 1) In the past57 years,the station proportion of drought in annual,spring,summer and winter showed a decreasing trend in Hexi Corridor,the station proportion of drought in autumn showed an insignificant increase. Among them,the biggest drops of the station proportion of drought was in summer. The frequency of large-scale drought in spring and autumn was higher than 29. 8%.( 2) The drought intensity of the Hexi Corridor showed a decreasing trend at the annual and seasonal scales,among which the drought intensity in summer had the largest decrease. The drought intensity in the study area was dominated by mild drought and moderate drought.( 3) The spatial distribution of drought has obvious regional characteristics,among which the drought of Jiuquan and Yumen were frequently. From the linear trend of the SPI index,66. 7% of the stations in the Hexi Corridor showed a decreasing trend on the annual and seasonal scales. The weakening of the drought is conducive to local agricultural and ecological environment. However,the precipitation and temperature in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor have both increased in the past fewdecades,this will lead to a greater possibility of local heavy rains and mountain flood disaster in the Hexi Corridor. Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the defense of rainstorm and flood disasters at the same time of drought resistance.
引文
Bai Y,Xu H,Ling H,2014.Drought-flood variation and its correlation with runoff in three headstreams of Tarim River,Xinjiang,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,71(3):1297-1309.
Hirabayashi Y,Kanae S,Emori S,et al,2008.Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,53(4):754-772.
Yan D H,Han D M,Wang G,et al,2014.The evolution analysis of flood and drought in Huai River Basin of China based on monthly precipitation characteristics[J].Natural Hazards,73(2):849-858.
陈丽丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙,等,2013.1960-2010年甘肃省不同气候区SPI与Z指数的年及春季变化特征[J].生态学杂志,32(3):704-711.
陈学君,姜梦晶,韩涛,2012.河西走廊地区五个典型站干旱指数对比和气候分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,35(5):216-222.
成青燕,高晓清,林纾,等,2017.基于MCI指标的甘肃省近50年干旱特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,35(1):211-218.
邓振镛,张强,尹宪志,等,2007.干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,29(1):114-118.
高翔,谢小龙,秦翔,2014.祁连山12号冰川2013年6月一次突发性洪水分析[J].西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),50(6):88-91.
韩兰英,张强,赵红岩,等,2016.甘肃省农业干旱灾害损失特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].中国沙漠,36(3):767-776.
黄会平,2010.1949-2007年全国干旱灾害特征、成因及减灾对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,24(11):94-98.
黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等,2010.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,26(7):50-59.
贾文雄,2012.近50年来祁连山及河西走廊降水的时空变化[J].地理学报,67(5):631-644.
贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省,等,2010.祁连山及河西走廊地表干湿变化的时空分布[J].地球科学,35(2):268-276.
贾文雄,张禹舜,李宗省,2014.近50年来祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化研究[J].地理科学,34(8):1002-1009.
蓝永超,胡兴林,丁宏伟,等,2014.河西内陆河流域山区近50余年来气温变化的多尺度特征和突变分析[J].山地学报,32(2):163-170.
蓝永超,康尔泗,张济世,等,2002.近50年来ENSO与祁连山区气温降水和出山径流的对应关系[J].水科学进展,13(2):141-145.
蓝永超,刘金鹏,丁宏伟,等,2013.1960-2012年河西内陆河上游山区降水量变化及其区域性差异分析[J].冰川冻土,35(6):1474-1480.
李智飞,门宝辉,张士锋,等,2014.河西走廊地区狭义/广义水资源脆弱性对比研究[J].干旱区地理,37(5):939-947.
梁丹,赵锐锋,李洁,等,2015.4种干旱指标在河西走廊地区的适用性评估[J].中国农学通报,31(36):194-204.
刘维成,张强,傅朝,2017.近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J].高原气象,36(6):1533-1545.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00081.
孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇,2012.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,67(11):1482-1492.
钱莉,杨永龙,张宇林,等,2015.河西走廊东部极端降水的时空分布及影响因子分析[J].干旱区地理,38(2):207-214.
钱正安,宋敏红,吴统文,等,2017.世界干旱气候研究动态及进展综述(Ⅱ):主要研究进展[J].高原气象,36(6):1457-1476.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00076.
任余龙,石彦军,王劲松,等,2013.1961-2009年西北地区基于SPI指数的干旱时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,35(4):938-948.
施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等,2003.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,23(2):152-164.
孙晓光,王腾,李白萍,等,2017.基于标准化降水指数的西藏昌都市旱涝时空特征[J].中国农学通报,33(8):112-118.
王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等,2017.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象,36(2):395-406.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00121.
王劲松,黄玉霞,冯建英,等,2009.径流量Z指数与Palmer指数对河西干旱的监测[J].应用气象学报,20(4):471-477.
王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等,2012.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,30(4):497-508.
王素萍,李耀辉,冯建英,等,2014.1961-2012年甘肃省干湿变化特征及其影响因子[J].中国沙漠,34(6):1624-1632.
王莺,李耀辉,胡田田,2014.基于SPI指数的甘肃省河东地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国沙漠,34(1):244-253.
闫峰,王艳姣,吴波,2010.近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J].地理研究,29(3):423-430.
杨龙,赵景波,2012.ENSO事件对河西走廊气候与气候灾害的影响[J].干旱区研究,29(6):949-955.
中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会,2006.GB/T 20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,10-23.
张立杰,李健,2018.基于SPEI和SPI指数的西江流域干旱多时间尺度变化特征[J].高原气象,37(2):560-567.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00013.
张亚琳,赵海燕,王春玲,等,2018.1979-2014年汾河流域干旱时空特征[J].中国农学通报,34(3):145-151.
Hirabayashi Y,Kanae S,Emori S,et al,2008.Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,53(4):754-772.
Yan D H,Han D M,Wang G,et al,2014.The evolution analysis of flood and drought in Huai River Basin of China based on monthly precipitation characteristics[J].Natural Hazards,73(2):849-858.
陈丽丽,刘普幸,姚玉龙,等,2013.1960-2010年甘肃省不同气候区SPI与Z指数的年及春季变化特征[J].生态学杂志,32(3):704-711.
陈学君,姜梦晶,韩涛,2012.河西走廊地区五个典型站干旱指数对比和气候分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,35(5):216-222.
成青燕,高晓清,林纾,等,2017.基于MCI指标的甘肃省近50年干旱特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,35(1):211-218.
邓振镛,张强,尹宪志,等,2007.干旱灾害对干旱气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,29(1):114-118.
高翔,谢小龙,秦翔,2014.祁连山12号冰川2013年6月一次突发性洪水分析[J].西北师范大学学报(自然科学版),50(6):88-91.
韩兰英,张强,赵红岩,等,2016.甘肃省农业干旱灾害损失特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].中国沙漠,36(3):767-776.
黄会平,2010.1949-2007年全国干旱灾害特征、成因及减灾对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,24(11):94-98.
黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等,2010.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,26(7):50-59.
贾文雄,2012.近50年来祁连山及河西走廊降水的时空变化[J].地理学报,67(5):631-644.
贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省,等,2010.祁连山及河西走廊地表干湿变化的时空分布[J].地球科学,35(2):268-276.
贾文雄,张禹舜,李宗省,2014.近50年来祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化研究[J].地理科学,34(8):1002-1009.
蓝永超,胡兴林,丁宏伟,等,2014.河西内陆河流域山区近50余年来气温变化的多尺度特征和突变分析[J].山地学报,32(2):163-170.
蓝永超,康尔泗,张济世,等,2002.近50年来ENSO与祁连山区气温降水和出山径流的对应关系[J].水科学进展,13(2):141-145.
蓝永超,刘金鹏,丁宏伟,等,2013.1960-2012年河西内陆河上游山区降水量变化及其区域性差异分析[J].冰川冻土,35(6):1474-1480.
李智飞,门宝辉,张士锋,等,2014.河西走廊地区狭义/广义水资源脆弱性对比研究[J].干旱区地理,37(5):939-947.
梁丹,赵锐锋,李洁,等,2015.4种干旱指标在河西走廊地区的适用性评估[J].中国农学通报,31(36):194-204.
刘维成,张强,傅朝,2017.近55年来中国西北地区降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J].高原气象,36(6):1533-1545.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00081.
孟秀敬,张士锋,张永勇,2012.河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,67(11):1482-1492.
钱莉,杨永龙,张宇林,等,2015.河西走廊东部极端降水的时空分布及影响因子分析[J].干旱区地理,38(2):207-214.
钱正安,宋敏红,吴统文,等,2017.世界干旱气候研究动态及进展综述(Ⅱ):主要研究进展[J].高原气象,36(6):1457-1476.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00076.
任余龙,石彦军,王劲松,等,2013.1961-2009年西北地区基于SPI指数的干旱时空变化特征[J].冰川冻土,35(4):938-948.
施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等,2003.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,23(2):152-164.
孙晓光,王腾,李白萍,等,2017.基于标准化降水指数的西藏昌都市旱涝时空特征[J].中国农学通报,33(8):112-118.
王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等,2017.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象,36(2):395-406.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00121.
王劲松,黄玉霞,冯建英,等,2009.径流量Z指数与Palmer指数对河西干旱的监测[J].应用气象学报,20(4):471-477.
王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等,2012.我国气象干旱研究进展评述[J].干旱气象,30(4):497-508.
王素萍,李耀辉,冯建英,等,2014.1961-2012年甘肃省干湿变化特征及其影响因子[J].中国沙漠,34(6):1624-1632.
王莺,李耀辉,胡田田,2014.基于SPI指数的甘肃省河东地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国沙漠,34(1):244-253.
闫峰,王艳姣,吴波,2010.近50年河北省干旱时空分布特征[J].地理研究,29(3):423-430.
杨龙,赵景波,2012.ENSO事件对河西走廊气候与气候灾害的影响[J].干旱区研究,29(6):949-955.
中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会,2006.GB/T 20481-2006气象干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,10-23.
张立杰,李健,2018.基于SPEI和SPI指数的西江流域干旱多时间尺度变化特征[J].高原气象,37(2):560-567.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00013.
张亚琳,赵海燕,王春玲,等,2018.1979-2014年汾河流域干旱时空特征[J].中国农学通报,34(3):145-151.