湖北省降雨和洪涝特征时空变化规律分析
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摘要
为揭示降水变化波动与区域旱涝灾害特性间的关系,采用降水集中指数(PCI)、降水异常指数(RAI)、标准化降水指数(SPI)、降水集中度(PCD)、降水集中期(PCP)和夏季长周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI)等表征降水特性和旱涝急转特征的多个指标对湖北省区域内旱涝急转特性和降水时空变化特征进行了研究,并对其旱涝发生规律和年代际变化进行了系统探讨.研究结果表明:区域降水具有季节性,主要表现为PCI值一般介于11～19,个别年份大于20,RAI值高低值分别发生在7月份和12月份左右;受气候变化等因素影响,省内和不同分区内近年SPI呈现波动和上升趋势,旱涝灾害发生具有持续性;全省及各区PCI,PCD值偏大,PCP值越大即雨季出现越早,则越容易发生洪涝灾害,指示洪涝灾害风险不断增加,尤其鄂西南最为突出;全省年代际变化特征明显,全省按旱涝急转频率及强度各年代际结果依次为1960s,2010s,1970s,2000s,1990s,1980s,同时与夏季降水百分率结果表现一致.文中所得的研究成果对了解区域旱涝灾害变化特性和防治自然灾害具有重要的理论借鉴和实践参考意义.
To reveal the relationship between precipitation fluctuation and regional drought-flood characteristics in the climate change background,the characteristics of drought-flood and the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in Hubei Province were studied by using a few indices such as PCI,RAI,SPI,PCD,PCP,LDFAI ans so on. Meanwhile,the occurrence and inter-decadal variations of drought-flood were systematically discussed. The results show that the regional precipitation is seasonal,i.e. PCI is generally between 11 and 19,but is greater than 20 in a few individual years,and the maximum and minimum RAIs occur in around July and December,respectively. Influenced by climate change and other factors,SPI exhibits fluctuation and rising trend,drought-flood occurances are persistent in different districts and the whole province in recent years. PCI and PCD values in each district are relatively large,specially the larger the PCP is,the earlier the rainy season is,and the more likely flood occurs,showing an inceasing risk of flood,particuallry in Southwestern Hubei. The characteristics of inter-decadal changes in the province are obvious. According to the frequency and intensity of drought-flood,the inter-decadal changes are ranked from large to small in an order 1960s,2010s,1970s,2000s,1990s,1980s. The results have importantly theoretical and practical significance for understanding of the characteristics of regional drought-flood change and preventing natural disasters.
To reveal the relationship between precipitation fluctuation and regional drought-flood characteristics in the climate change background,the characteristics of drought-flood and the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in Hubei Province were studied by using a few indices such as PCI,RAI,SPI,PCD,PCP,LDFAI ans so on. Meanwhile,the occurrence and inter-decadal variations of drought-flood were systematically discussed. The results show that the regional precipitation is seasonal,i.e. PCI is generally between 11 and 19,but is greater than 20 in a few individual years,and the maximum and minimum RAIs occur in around July and December,respectively. Influenced by climate change and other factors,SPI exhibits fluctuation and rising trend,drought-flood occurances are persistent in different districts and the whole province in recent years. PCI and PCD values in each district are relatively large,specially the larger the PCP is,the earlier the rainy season is,and the more likely flood occurs,showing an inceasing risk of flood,particuallry in Southwestern Hubei. The characteristics of inter-decadal changes in the province are obvious. According to the frequency and intensity of drought-flood,the inter-decadal changes are ranked from large to small in an order 1960s,2010s,1970s,2000s,1990s,1980s. The results have importantly theoretical and practical significance for understanding of the characteristics of regional drought-flood change and preventing natural disasters.
引文
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[17]胡昌琼,李世刚,汪高明,等.湖北省梅雨期降水集中度和集中期研究[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(1):75-78.HU Changqiong,LI Shigang,WANG Gaoming,et al.The features of precipitation concentrations during Meiyu period over Hubei Province[J].Torrential rain and disasters,2009,28(1):75-78.(in Chinese)
[18]周悦,周月华,叶丽梅,等.湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究[J].气象,2016,42(2):221-229.ZHOU Yue,ZHOU Yuehua,YE Limei,et al.Preliminary study on disastrous law of drought and flood in Hubei Province[J].Meteorological monthly,2016,42(2):221-229.(in Chinese)
[2]KE Dan,GUAN Zhaoyong.Variations in regional mean daily precipitation extremes and related circulation anomalies over central China during boreal summer[J].Journal of meteorological research,2014,28(4):524-539.
[3]李政,张文太,轩俊伟.伊宁市1956-2015年强降雨特征及对洪灾的影响[J].水资源保护,2018,34(6):49-55.LI Zheng,ZHANG Wentai,XUAN Junwei.Characteristics of heavy rainfall in Yining City from 1956 to 2015and its impact on flood[J].Water resources protection,2018,34(6):49-55.(in Chinese)
[4]季永兴,刘水芹.平原感潮地区雨型潮型组合对除涝规模的影响[J].水利水电科技进展,2017(5):22-27.JI Yongxing,LIU Shuiqin.Study on rainfall-tide-combinations impacting on the drainage scales in a plain tidal area[J].Advances in science and technology of water resources,2017(5):22-27.(in Chinese)
[5]孙小婷,李清泉,王黎娟.中国西南地区夏季长周期旱涝急转及其大气环流异常[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1332-1342.SUN Xiaoting,LI Qingquan,WANG Lijuan.Characteristics of long-cycle abrupt drought-flood alternations in Southwest China and anomalies of atmospheric circulation in Summer[J].Chinese journal of atmospheric sciences,2017,41(6):1332-1342.(in Chinese)
[6]何慧,廖雪萍,陆虹,等.华南地区1961-2014年夏季长周期旱涝急转特征[J].地理学报,2016,71(1):130-141.HE Hui,LIAO Xueping,LU Hong,et al.Features of long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation in South China during summer in 1961-2014[J].Acta geographica sinica,2016,71(1):130-141.(in Chinese)
[7]SHAN Lijie,ZHANG Liping,XIONG Zhe,et al.Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction of dry-wet abrupt alternation during the summer monsoon in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin[J].Meteorology&atmospheric physics,2018,130(4):427-440.
[8]胡毅鸿,李景保.1951-2015年洞庭湖区旱涝演变及典型年份旱涝急转特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(7):107-115.HU Yihong,LI Jingbao.Analysis on evolution of drought-flood and its abrupt alternation in typical year from1951 to 2015 in Dongting Lake area[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2017,33(7):107-115.(in Chinese)
[9]张苗苗.基于SPI的近51 a晋北地区旱涝变化及干旱事件时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(3):138-144.ZHANG Miaomiao.Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought-flood and drought events based on standardized precipitation index in Northern Shanxi during recent 51years[J].Journal of arid land resources and environment,2018,32(3):138-144.(in Chinese)
[10]OLIVER J E.Monthly precipitation distribution:a comparative index[J].Professional geographer,2010,32(3):300-309.
[11]佟长福,李和平,胡翠艳,等.内蒙古自治区参考作物腾发量的时空变化[J].排灌机械工程学报,2018,36(11):1071-1075.TONG Changfu,LI Heping,HU Cuiyan,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of reference crop evapotranspiration in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of drainage and irrigation machinery engineering,2018,36(11):1071-1075.(in Chinese)
[12]ZHANG Lujun,QIAN Yongpu.Annual distribution features of precipitation in china and their interannual varia-tions[J].Acta meteorologica sinica,2003,17(2):146-163.
[13]张水锋,张金池,闵俊杰,等.基于径流分析的淮河流域汛期旱涝急转研究[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(5):679-686.ZAHNG Shuifeng,ZHANG Jinchi,MIN Junjie,et al.Drought-flood abrupt alternation based on runoff in the Huaihe River Basin during rainy season[J].Journal of lake sciences,2012,24(5):679-686.(in Chinese)
[14]JI Y,ZHOU G,WANG S,et al.Increase in flood and drought disasters during 1500-2000 in Southwest China[J].Natural hazards,2015,77(3):1853-1861.
[15]YAO Y,LIN H,WU Q.Subseasonal variability of precipitation in china during boreal winter[J].Journal of climate,2015,28(16):150625142233004.
[16]黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,等.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58 a演变特征[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50-59.HUANG Wanhua,YANG Xiaoguang,LI Maosong,et al.Evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the south of China during the past 58 years based on standardized precipitation index[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2010,26(7):50-59.(in Chinese)
[17]胡昌琼,李世刚,汪高明,等.湖北省梅雨期降水集中度和集中期研究[J].暴雨灾害,2009,28(1):75-78.HU Changqiong,LI Shigang,WANG Gaoming,et al.The features of precipitation concentrations during Meiyu period over Hubei Province[J].Torrential rain and disasters,2009,28(1):75-78.(in Chinese)
[18]周悦,周月华,叶丽梅,等.湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究[J].气象,2016,42(2):221-229.ZHOU Yue,ZHOU Yuehua,YE Limei,et al.Preliminary study on disastrous law of drought and flood in Hubei Province[J].Meteorological monthly,2016,42(2):221-229.(in Chinese)