近200年来渭河流域干旱洪涝事件特征
|
摘要
通过对渭河流域1813—2017年旱涝灾害资料的收集整理,重建旱涝等级以及指数序列,采用滑动t检验及小波分析等方法,分析了渭河流域近200年来旱涝变化规律。结果表明:近200年来渭河流域发生水旱灾害共111次,水灾和旱灾分别发生了55次和36次,同年水旱灾害交替出现20次,发生频率由高到低依次为:轻度旱灾>中度旱灾>轻度涝灾>旱涝交替>中度涝灾>重大涝灾及重大旱灾。旱涝灾害的发生具有明显的阶段性:1833—1880年、1914—1933年为中度和重大旱灾的多发期,1894—1910年、1933—1939年为中度和重大涝灾多发阶段。旱涝演变存在5～7年、10～11年、18～20年、60年和105～110年周期震荡。110年左右的周期震荡最强,为第一主周期,第二主周期为60年,第三主周期为20年,同时检验出旱涝有5个突变年,分别为1825年、1881年、1914年、1933年及1981年。空间分布上,渭南地区旱灾发生频率最高,天水和铜川次之,渭河源头处发生频率最低。西安、渭南涝灾发生频率最高,天水、宝鸡、咸阳次之,渭源和铜川涝灾发生频率最低。
By collecting and sorting out the data of drought and flood disasters in Weihe River Basin from 1813 to 2017, and reconstructing the drought and flood index and exponential sequences, this paper uses the methods of indexing, moving average, moving t test and wavelet analysis to analyze the variation of drought and flood in Weihe River Basin in recent 200 years. The results showed that there were 111 events of floods and droughts in Weihe River Basin in the past 200 years, 55 events of floods and 36 events of droughts, respectively, and 20 events of floods and droughts occurred alternately in the same year. The frequency of floods and droughts decreased in the order: mild drought>moderate drought>mild flood>alternation of droughts and floods>moderate floods>major floods and droughts. The occurrence of drought and flood disasters had obvious stages, moderate and severe drought-prone periods occurred in the period of 1833—1880 and 1914—1933, moderate and severe flood-prone periods occurred in the period of 1894—1910 and 1933—1939. There were periodic shocks of 5～7 years, 10～11 years, 18～20 years, 60 years and 105～110 years in the evolution of drought and flood. The period oscillation around 110 years was the strongest, which was the first main period, the second main period was 60 years, and the third main period was 20 years. At the same time, five mutation years of drought and flood were detected, which occurred in 1825, 1881, 1914, 1933 and 1981, respectively. With respect to spatial distribution, the highest drought frequency was found in Guanzhong Basin, followed by Tianshui and Tongchuan, and the lowest on was found in the source of Weihe River. The highest frequency of floods was observed in Xi′an and Weinan, followed by Tianshui, Baoji and Xianyang, and the lowest frequency was found in Weiyuan and Tongchuan.
By collecting and sorting out the data of drought and flood disasters in Weihe River Basin from 1813 to 2017, and reconstructing the drought and flood index and exponential sequences, this paper uses the methods of indexing, moving average, moving t test and wavelet analysis to analyze the variation of drought and flood in Weihe River Basin in recent 200 years. The results showed that there were 111 events of floods and droughts in Weihe River Basin in the past 200 years, 55 events of floods and 36 events of droughts, respectively, and 20 events of floods and droughts occurred alternately in the same year. The frequency of floods and droughts decreased in the order: mild drought>moderate drought>mild flood>alternation of droughts and floods>moderate floods>major floods and droughts. The occurrence of drought and flood disasters had obvious stages, moderate and severe drought-prone periods occurred in the period of 1833—1880 and 1914—1933, moderate and severe flood-prone periods occurred in the period of 1894—1910 and 1933—1939. There were periodic shocks of 5～7 years, 10～11 years, 18～20 years, 60 years and 105～110 years in the evolution of drought and flood. The period oscillation around 110 years was the strongest, which was the first main period, the second main period was 60 years, and the third main period was 20 years. At the same time, five mutation years of drought and flood were detected, which occurred in 1825, 1881, 1914, 1933 and 1981, respectively. With respect to spatial distribution, the highest drought frequency was found in Guanzhong Basin, followed by Tianshui and Tongchuan, and the lowest on was found in the source of Weihe River. The highest frequency of floods was observed in Xi′an and Weinan, followed by Tianshui, Baoji and Xianyang, and the lowest frequency was found in Weiyuan and Tongchuan.
引文
[1] Bradley R S.High resolution record of past climate from monsoon Asia,the last 2000 years and beyond,recommendations for research[R].Pages Workshop Report,Series 93-1,1993:1-24.
[2] 吕姗娜,王晓春.大兴安岭北部阿里河樟子松年轮气候响应及冬季降水重建[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2014,42(2):110-116.
[3] 李媛媛,秦宁生,时兴合,等.近714年扎曲河流域径流量的重建和变化特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(4):1065-1073.
[4] 李江风,袁玉江,由希尧.乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建[J].第四纪研究,1997(2):36-43.
[5] 袁玉江,李江风.天山乌鲁木齐河源450 a冬季温度序列的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1):64-70.
[6] 喻树龙,袁玉江,龚原.奎屯河近379 a 9月径流量的重建与特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):115-119.
[7] 康兴成,程国栋,康尔泗,等.利用树轮资料重建黑河近千年来出山口径流量[J].中国科学:D辑,2002,32(8):675-685.
[8] 王亚军,陈发虎,勾晓华.黑河230 a以来3—6月径流的变化[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(2):202-206.
[9] 刘禹,杨银科,蔡秋芳,等.以树木年轮宽度资料重建湟水河过去248年来6—7月份河流径流量[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(6):69-73.
[10] 勾晓华,邓洋,陈发虎,等.黄河上游过去1234年流量的树轮重建与变化特征分[J].科学通报,2010,55(4):176-183.
[11] 刘禹,吴祥定,邵雪梅,等.树轮密度、稳定C同位素对过去近100 a陕西黄陵季节气温与降水的恢复[J].中国科学D辑,1997,27(3):271-276.
[12] 刘洪滨,邵雪梅,黄磊.中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建[J].第四纪研究,2002,22(3):220-229.
[13] 蔡秋芳,刘禹,杨银科,等.陕西黄龙树轮年表的建立及其2—3月降水记录[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2005,25(2):133-139.
[14] Liangcheng Tan,Yanjun Cai,Zhisheng An Lawrence Edwards,et al.Centennial-to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region,northern China during the last 1860 years:Records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave[J].The Holocene,2010,21(2):287-296.
[15] 朱悦璐,畅建霞.基于气候模式与水文模型结合的渭河径流预测[J].西安理工大学学报,2015,31(4):400-407.
[16] 郝春沣,贾仰文,王浩.气象水文模型耦合研究及其在渭河流域的应用[J].水利学报,2012,43(9):1042-1049.
[17] 姚正学,杨军,刘迪.1956—2005年渭河流域降水与径流的变化特征[J].人民黄河,2016,38(1):12-18.
[18] 陕西省地方志编纂委员会.陕西省志水利志(第十三卷)[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1999.
[19] 袁林.西北灾荒史[M].兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994.
[20] 陕西省陇县地方志编纂委员会.陇县志[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1993.
[21] 温克刚,董安祥.中国气象灾害大典:甘肃卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[22] 温克刚,翟佑安.中国气象灾害大典:陕西卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[23] 张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社,2004.
[24] 陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实编委会.陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[25] 陕西省凤翔县地方志编纂委员会.凤翔县志[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1991.
[26] 叶柏松等,赵成义,姜逢清,等.近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):173-182.
[27] 毕硕本,钱育君,陈昌春,等.1470—1912年西北东部地区旱涝等级重建序列的特征及对比分析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):13-21.
[28] 中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近500年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[29] 李艳芳,赵景波.近200年来关中地区洪涝灾害研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(4):96-99.
[30] 郭瑞,査小春.泾河流域1470—1979年旱涝灾害变化规律分析[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(3):90-95.
[31] 郭永强.我国季风区若干河流万年尺度稀遇洪水事件水文恢复研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2017:103-105.
[32] He H,Zhang Q,Zhou J,et al.Coupling climate change with hydrological dynamic in Qinling Mountains,China[J].Climatic Change,2009,94(3):409-427.
[33] 孙悦,李栋梁,朱拥军.渭河径流变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应研究进展[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):396-405.
[34] 冯星,郭建青,孙东永,等.近55 a渭河流域气候变化[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(4):718-725.
[35] Y G Liu,S X Wang,Y Wang and H N Hu.Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration in the Weihe River Basin based on statistical downscaling[J].IOP Conf.Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2018,191(1):1-7.doi:10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012025.
[36] 徐振韬,蒋窈窕.中国古代太阳黑子研究与现代应用[M].南京:南京大学出版社,1990.
[37] 张健,满志敏,肖薇薇,等.1644—2009年黄河中游旱涝序列重建与特征诊断[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1579-1596.
[2] 吕姗娜,王晓春.大兴安岭北部阿里河樟子松年轮气候响应及冬季降水重建[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2014,42(2):110-116.
[3] 李媛媛,秦宁生,时兴合,等.近714年扎曲河流域径流量的重建和变化特征[J].高原气象,2015,34(4):1065-1073.
[4] 李江风,袁玉江,由希尧.乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建[J].第四纪研究,1997(2):36-43.
[5] 袁玉江,李江风.天山乌鲁木齐河源450 a冬季温度序列的重建与分析[J].冰川冻土,1999,21(1):64-70.
[6] 喻树龙,袁玉江,龚原.奎屯河近379 a 9月径流量的重建与特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(7):115-119.
[7] 康兴成,程国栋,康尔泗,等.利用树轮资料重建黑河近千年来出山口径流量[J].中国科学:D辑,2002,32(8):675-685.
[8] 王亚军,陈发虎,勾晓华.黑河230 a以来3—6月径流的变化[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(2):202-206.
[9] 刘禹,杨银科,蔡秋芳,等.以树木年轮宽度资料重建湟水河过去248年来6—7月份河流径流量[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(6):69-73.
[10] 勾晓华,邓洋,陈发虎,等.黄河上游过去1234年流量的树轮重建与变化特征分[J].科学通报,2010,55(4):176-183.
[11] 刘禹,吴祥定,邵雪梅,等.树轮密度、稳定C同位素对过去近100 a陕西黄陵季节气温与降水的恢复[J].中国科学D辑,1997,27(3):271-276.
[12] 刘洪滨,邵雪梅,黄磊.中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建[J].第四纪研究,2002,22(3):220-229.
[13] 蔡秋芳,刘禹,杨银科,等.陕西黄龙树轮年表的建立及其2—3月降水记录[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2005,25(2):133-139.
[14] Liangcheng Tan,Yanjun Cai,Zhisheng An Lawrence Edwards,et al.Centennial-to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region,northern China during the last 1860 years:Records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave[J].The Holocene,2010,21(2):287-296.
[15] 朱悦璐,畅建霞.基于气候模式与水文模型结合的渭河径流预测[J].西安理工大学学报,2015,31(4):400-407.
[16] 郝春沣,贾仰文,王浩.气象水文模型耦合研究及其在渭河流域的应用[J].水利学报,2012,43(9):1042-1049.
[17] 姚正学,杨军,刘迪.1956—2005年渭河流域降水与径流的变化特征[J].人民黄河,2016,38(1):12-18.
[18] 陕西省地方志编纂委员会.陕西省志水利志(第十三卷)[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1999.
[19] 袁林.西北灾荒史[M].兰州:甘肃人民出版社,1994.
[20] 陕西省陇县地方志编纂委员会.陇县志[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1993.
[21] 温克刚,董安祥.中国气象灾害大典:甘肃卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[22] 温克刚,翟佑安.中国气象灾害大典:陕西卷[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[23] 张德二.中国三千年气象记录总集[M].南京:凤凰出版社,2004.
[24] 陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实编委会.陕西历史自然灾害简要纪实[M].北京:气象出版社,2002.
[25] 陕西省凤翔县地方志编纂委员会.凤翔县志[M].西安:陕西人民出版社,1991.
[26] 叶柏松等,赵成义,姜逢清,等.近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):173-182.
[27] 毕硕本,钱育君,陈昌春,等.1470—1912年西北东部地区旱涝等级重建序列的特征及对比分析[J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):13-21.
[28] 中央气象局气象科学研究院.中国近500年旱涝分布图集[M].北京:地图出版社,1981.
[29] 李艳芳,赵景波.近200年来关中地区洪涝灾害研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(4):96-99.
[30] 郭瑞,査小春.泾河流域1470—1979年旱涝灾害变化规律分析[J].陕西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,37(3):90-95.
[31] 郭永强.我国季风区若干河流万年尺度稀遇洪水事件水文恢复研究[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2017:103-105.
[32] He H,Zhang Q,Zhou J,et al.Coupling climate change with hydrological dynamic in Qinling Mountains,China[J].Climatic Change,2009,94(3):409-427.
[33] 孙悦,李栋梁,朱拥军.渭河径流变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应研究进展[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):396-405.
[34] 冯星,郭建青,孙东永,等.近55 a渭河流域气候变化[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(4):718-725.
[35] Y G Liu,S X Wang,Y Wang and H N Hu.Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration in the Weihe River Basin based on statistical downscaling[J].IOP Conf.Series:Earth and Environmental Science,2018,191(1):1-7.doi:10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012025.
[36] 徐振韬,蒋窈窕.中国古代太阳黑子研究与现代应用[M].南京:南京大学出版社,1990.
[37] 张健,满志敏,肖薇薇,等.1644—2009年黄河中游旱涝序列重建与特征诊断[J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1579-1596.