榆树年轮记录的浑善达克沙地春季平均最高气温
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摘要
基于采自内蒙古正蓝旗北部浑善达克沙地的榆树树芯及圆盘建立了区域年表,其与浑善达克沙地4—5月平均最高气温存在显著的负相关性(r=-0.72),根据二者的相关性建立回归方程(方差解释量为51.35%),稳定可靠,并据此重建了该地区1766—2011年4—5月平均最高气温,共246 a。重建序列中,气温显著偏高的时段有5个,显著偏低的时段有6个。采用多窗谱分析检测序列周期性,存在2~3.5 a和33~51.28 a周期。重建序列与周围地区干旱指数重建序列波动趋势具有一致性,且周围地区4—5月平均最高气温与重建的该地区4—5月平均最高气温间相关系数均高于0.6。
There is a significant negative correlation(-0. 72) between the regional chronology which build by the elm tree ring cores and disks were collected from the Otindag Sandy Land in the northern part of Zhenglan County,Inner Mongolia and the April-May mean maximum temperature of Zhenglan County. Based on this correlation we set up a regression equation between the April-May mean maximum temperature and the regional chronology,and which accounts for 51.35% of the reliability for the April-May mean maximum temperature during 1960—2011. The regression equation is credible and researched a 246-year reconstruction of April-May mean maximum temperature during 1766—2011. There were five periods with significantly higher temperatures and six periods with significantly lower temperatures by analyzing the volatility characteristics of the reconstructed sequence. There are significant cycles at 2-3.5 and 33-51.28 years of the reconstruction by using the Multi-taper method. The reconstruction sequence is consistent with the fluctuation trend of the drought index reconstruction in the surrounding area,and the correlation coefficients between the reconstruction sequence and measured sequences in surrounding areas are all higher than 0.6.
There is a significant negative correlation(-0. 72) between the regional chronology which build by the elm tree ring cores and disks were collected from the Otindag Sandy Land in the northern part of Zhenglan County,Inner Mongolia and the April-May mean maximum temperature of Zhenglan County. Based on this correlation we set up a regression equation between the April-May mean maximum temperature and the regional chronology,and which accounts for 51.35% of the reliability for the April-May mean maximum temperature during 1960—2011. The regression equation is credible and researched a 246-year reconstruction of April-May mean maximum temperature during 1766—2011. There were five periods with significantly higher temperatures and six periods with significantly lower temperatures by analyzing the volatility characteristics of the reconstructed sequence. There are significant cycles at 2-3.5 and 33-51.28 years of the reconstruction by using the Multi-taper method. The reconstruction sequence is consistent with the fluctuation trend of the drought index reconstruction in the surrounding area,and the correlation coefficients between the reconstruction sequence and measured sequences in surrounding areas are all higher than 0.6.
引文
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[15]杨婷婷,刘朋涛,刘同海,等.正蓝旗沙漠化草地分布格局及2002—2011年动态变化的遥感监测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(10):181-185.
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[21]孙毓,王丽丽,陈津,等.利用兴安落叶松树轮最大晚材密度重建大兴安岭北部5~8月气温变化[J].科学通报,2012,57(19):1785-1793.
[22] Sun B,Liu Y,Lei Y,et al.Warm-induced aridification in eastern Inner M ongolia evidenced by tree rings[J]. Dendrochronologia,2017,42:73-79.
[23]丁爱军,肖生春,彭小梅,等.霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)灌木年轮记录的1902—2015年阿拉善荒漠中部气候干湿变化[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(2):401-409.
[24]肖生春,陈小红,丁爱军.近现代阿拉善荒漠气候变化与环境演变机制研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(6):1102-1110.
[25]范子昂,魏文寿,陈峰,等.树轮记录的腾格里沙漠东缘1775—2005年降水变化[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):996-1002.
[26]梁尔源,邵雪梅,刘鸿雁,等.树轮所记录的公元1842年以来内蒙古东部浑善达克沙地PDSI的变化[J].科学通报,2007,52(14):1694-1699.
[27]马龙,刘廷玺,寇志强,等.科尔沁沙地榆树生长与水文气象因子的关系及气候重建[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(5):802-807.
[28]马龙,刘廷玺,冀鸿兰,等.科尔沁沙地1826年以来榆树树轮宽度年表的建立及降水重建[J].第四纪研究,2011,31(2):360-369.
[29]赵国青.正蓝旗古榆树种群特征及林下植物多样性的研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2011.
[30] Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-Ring Bulletin,1983,44(3):69-75.
[31]赵守栋,江源,焦亮,等.ARSTAN程序和R语言dplR扩展包进行树轮年表分析的比较研究[J].生态学报,2015,35(22):7494-7502.
[32]李宗善,刘国华,傅伯杰,等.不同去趋势方法对树轮年表气候信号的影响——以卧龙地区为例[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(7):707-721.
[33]李金建,邵雪梅,李媛媛,等.树轮宽度记录的松潘地区年平均气温变化[J].科学通报,2014,59(15):1446-1458.
[34]曹洁萍,迟道才,武立强,等.Mann-Kendall检验方法在降水趋势分析中的应用研究[J].农业科技与装备,2008(5):35-37.
[35] Chang M,Lee R.Objective double-mass analysis[J].Water Resources Research,1974,10(6):1123-1126.
[36]曹受金,曹福祥,项文化.利用树木年轮重建赣南地区1890年以来2—3月份温度的变化[J].生态学报,2012,32(20):6369-6375.
[37]时兴合,秦宁生,朱海峰,等.青海杂多大果圆柏年轮指示的公元1360—2005年5—6月最高气温变化[J].科学通报,2010,55(19):1924-1931.
[38]肖丁木,秦宁生,李金建,等.树轮宽度所指示的川西色达7月平均最高温度变化[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1536-1543.
[39]马永永.近500年来亚洲干旱变化的树轮记录研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2016.
[40] Campbell L,Liu H B,Nolla H A,et al. Annual variability of phytoplankton and bacteria in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean at Station ALOHA during the 1991—1994 ENSO event[J].Deep Sea Research Part I Oceanographic Research Papers,1997,30(2):167-192.
[41] Raspopov O M,Dergachev V A,Kolstr9m T.Periodicity of climate conditions and solar variability derived from dendrochronological and other palaeoclimatic data in highlatitudes[J].Palaeogeography,2004,209(1/2/3/4):127-139.
[42]蒋德明,张娜,阿拉木萨,等.我国固沙植物抗旱性及基于水量平衡的沙地造林合理密度研究进展[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(6):75-83.
[43]赵丽,王晓江,刘果厚,等.浑善达克沙地榆树种群结构、格局及动态研究[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(3):508-513.
[2]陈泮勤.国际地圈、生物圈计划——全球变化的研究[J].中国科学院院刊,1987(3):206-211.
[3]李克让,陈育峰.中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展[J].地理研究,1999,18(2):214-219.
[4]李江风,袁玉江,由希尧.树木年轮水文学研究与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2000.
[5] Rydval M,Gunnarson B E,Loader N J,et al.Spatial reconstruction of Scottish summer temperatures from tree rings[J].International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(3):1540-1556.
[6] Liu Y,An Z S,Linderholm H W.Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings[J]. Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,2009,529(3):348-359.
[7] Tejedor E,Saz M A,Esper J,et al.Summer drought reconstruction in Northeastern Spain inferred from a tree-ring latew ood netw ork since 1734[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(16):8492-8500.
[8] Tejedor E,De L M,Cuadrat J M,et al.Tree-ring-based drought reconstruction in the Iberian Range(east of Spain)since 1694[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2016,60(3):1-12.
[9] Gou X H,Gao L,Deng Y,et al.An 850-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of drought history in the w estern Qilian M ountains of northw estern China[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2015,35(11):3308-3319.
[10] Shao X M,Huang L,Liu H.Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha,Qinghai[J].Science in China Ser.D Earth Sciences,2005,48(7):939-949.
[11] Li J B,Gou X H,Cook E R,et al.Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the central Tien Shan area in northw est China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(7):L07715.
[12] Chen F,Yuan Y J,Wei W S,et al. Precipitation reconstruction for the southern Altay M ountains(China)from tree rings of Siberian spruce,reveals recent w etting trend[J]. Dendrochronologia,2014,32(3):266-272.
[13] Shi J,Lu H,Li J.Tree-ring based February-April precipitation reconstruction for the low er reaches of the Yangtze River,southeastern China[J].Global&Planetary Change,2015,131:82-88.
[14] Cai Q F,Yu L.Two centuries temperature variations over subtropical southeast China inferred from Pinustaiwanensis,Hayata treering width[J].Climate Dynamics,2017,48(5/6):1813-1825.
[15]杨婷婷,刘朋涛,刘同海,等.正蓝旗沙漠化草地分布格局及2002—2011年动态变化的遥感监测[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(10):181-185.
[16]白美兰,郝润全.气候变化对浑善达克沙地生态环境演变的影响[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(3):484-488.
[17]刘树林,王涛.浑善达克沙地的土地沙漠化过程研究[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(5):719-724.
[18]包斯琴,高科,王桂花.浑善达克沙地东部地区沙漠化发展近今演变研究——正蓝旗境内沙漠化研究为例[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2006,27(2):25-29.
[19]杨银科,黄强,刘禹,等.以树木年轮密度资料重建鄂尔多斯中部地区6至10月降水量的变化[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,41(8):96-102.
[20]刘禹,史江峰,V.Shishov,等.以树轮晚材宽度重建公元1726年以来贺兰山北部5~7月降水量[J].科学通报,2004,49(3):265-269.
[21]孙毓,王丽丽,陈津,等.利用兴安落叶松树轮最大晚材密度重建大兴安岭北部5~8月气温变化[J].科学通报,2012,57(19):1785-1793.
[22] Sun B,Liu Y,Lei Y,et al.Warm-induced aridification in eastern Inner M ongolia evidenced by tree rings[J]. Dendrochronologia,2017,42:73-79.
[23]丁爱军,肖生春,彭小梅,等.霸王(Sarcozygium xanthoxylon)灌木年轮记录的1902—2015年阿拉善荒漠中部气候干湿变化[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(2):401-409.
[24]肖生春,陈小红,丁爱军.近现代阿拉善荒漠气候变化与环境演变机制研究进展[J].中国沙漠,2017,37(6):1102-1110.
[25]范子昂,魏文寿,陈峰,等.树轮记录的腾格里沙漠东缘1775—2005年降水变化[J].中国沙漠,2012,32(4):996-1002.
[26]梁尔源,邵雪梅,刘鸿雁,等.树轮所记录的公元1842年以来内蒙古东部浑善达克沙地PDSI的变化[J].科学通报,2007,52(14):1694-1699.
[27]马龙,刘廷玺,寇志强,等.科尔沁沙地榆树生长与水文气象因子的关系及气候重建[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(5):802-807.
[28]马龙,刘廷玺,冀鸿兰,等.科尔沁沙地1826年以来榆树树轮宽度年表的建立及降水重建[J].第四纪研究,2011,31(2):360-369.
[29]赵国青.正蓝旗古榆树种群特征及林下植物多样性的研究[D].呼和浩特:内蒙古农业大学,2011.
[30] Holmes R L.Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J].Tree-Ring Bulletin,1983,44(3):69-75.
[31]赵守栋,江源,焦亮,等.ARSTAN程序和R语言dplR扩展包进行树轮年表分析的比较研究[J].生态学报,2015,35(22):7494-7502.
[32]李宗善,刘国华,傅伯杰,等.不同去趋势方法对树轮年表气候信号的影响——以卧龙地区为例[J].植物生态学报,2011,35(7):707-721.
[33]李金建,邵雪梅,李媛媛,等.树轮宽度记录的松潘地区年平均气温变化[J].科学通报,2014,59(15):1446-1458.
[34]曹洁萍,迟道才,武立强,等.Mann-Kendall检验方法在降水趋势分析中的应用研究[J].农业科技与装备,2008(5):35-37.
[35] Chang M,Lee R.Objective double-mass analysis[J].Water Resources Research,1974,10(6):1123-1126.
[36]曹受金,曹福祥,项文化.利用树木年轮重建赣南地区1890年以来2—3月份温度的变化[J].生态学报,2012,32(20):6369-6375.
[37]时兴合,秦宁生,朱海峰,等.青海杂多大果圆柏年轮指示的公元1360—2005年5—6月最高气温变化[J].科学通报,2010,55(19):1924-1931.
[38]肖丁木,秦宁生,李金建,等.树轮宽度所指示的川西色达7月平均最高温度变化[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1536-1543.
[39]马永永.近500年来亚洲干旱变化的树轮记录研究[D].北京:中国科学院大学,2016.
[40] Campbell L,Liu H B,Nolla H A,et al. Annual variability of phytoplankton and bacteria in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean at Station ALOHA during the 1991—1994 ENSO event[J].Deep Sea Research Part I Oceanographic Research Papers,1997,30(2):167-192.
[41] Raspopov O M,Dergachev V A,Kolstr9m T.Periodicity of climate conditions and solar variability derived from dendrochronological and other palaeoclimatic data in highlatitudes[J].Palaeogeography,2004,209(1/2/3/4):127-139.
[42]蒋德明,张娜,阿拉木萨,等.我国固沙植物抗旱性及基于水量平衡的沙地造林合理密度研究进展[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(6):75-83.
[43]赵丽,王晓江,刘果厚,等.浑善达克沙地榆树种群结构、格局及动态研究[J].中国沙漠,2009,29(3):508-513.