第三方互联网支付对我国广义货币流通的影响
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摘要
以第三方互联网支付为视角,通过建立向量误差修正模型,定量分析第三方互联网支付对我国广义货币流通的影响,包括对广义货币供应量、广义货币乘数和广义货币流通速度的影响.研究表明:(1)第三方互联网支付会拉动广义货币供应量的增长、放大货币乘数效应、对广义货币流通速度起抑制作用.(2)第三方互联网支付是广义货币供应量、广义货币乘数、广义货币流通速度的单向格兰杰原因.最后,基于理论分析和实证检验结果为监管机构更好的管理第三方互联网支付提出了相关对策建议.
In this paper,the third-party Internet payment is taken as a perspective to establish a vector error correction model to quantitatively analyze the impact of third-party Internet payment on China's general monetary circulation,including the impact on broad money supply,generalized money multiplier and general currency circulation speed.The research shows that:(1)Third-party internet payment will drive the growth of broad money supply and enlarge the monetary multiplier effect,which will promote the circulation speed of broad money.(2)Third-party internet payment is one-way Granger reason for broad money supply,broad money multiplier and general money circulation speed.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test results,we put forward some countermeasures for the regulators to better manage the third-party Internet payment.
In this paper,the third-party Internet payment is taken as a perspective to establish a vector error correction model to quantitatively analyze the impact of third-party Internet payment on China's general monetary circulation,including the impact on broad money supply,generalized money multiplier and general currency circulation speed.The research shows that:(1)Third-party internet payment will drive the growth of broad money supply and enlarge the monetary multiplier effect,which will promote the circulation speed of broad money.(2)Third-party internet payment is one-way Granger reason for broad money supply,broad money multiplier and general money circulation speed.Finally,based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test results,we put forward some countermeasures for the regulators to better manage the third-party Internet payment.
引文
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[3]H SHIRVANI,N DELCOURE.Robust panel Unit Root Tests for the Velocity of Money in a Sample of the OECD Countries[J].Banks and Bank Systems,2014(3):36-42.
[4]SINGH S.Electronic money:understanding its use to increase the effectiveness of policy[J].Telecommunications Policy,1999,23(10-11):753-773.
[5]FUJIKI H,TANAKA M."Currency demand:new technology and the adoption of electronic money:evidence using individual household data";Economics Letters,2014,125(1):5-8.
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[10]宫晓林.互联网金融模式及对传统银行业的影响[J].南方金融,2013(5):86-88.
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[12]刘忠璐.互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响研究[J].财贸经济,2016,37(4):71-85.
[13]全颖,杨大光.互联网金融发展、支付货币电子化及对货币供给的影响[J].中国流通经济,2016,30(7):122-128.
[14]杨弋帆.电子货币对货币供给及货币乘数的影响机制研究——包含第三方支付机构的三级创造体系[J].上海金融,2014(3):47-54.
[15]陶士贵,邹艺.第三方支付对我国货币流通速度的影响[J].财会月刊,2017(36):108-114.
[16]方兴,郭子睿.第三方互联网支付、货币流通速度与货币政策有效性——基于TVP-VAR模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2017(3):183-190.
[17]尹龙.电子货币对中央银行的影响[J].金融研究,2000(4):34-41.
[18]印文,裴平.中国的货币电子化与货币政策有效性[J].经济学家,2015(3):39-46.
[19]周光友.电子货币发展、货币乘数变动与货币政策有效性[J].经济科学,2007,29(1):34-43.
[20]谢平,刘海二.ICT、移动支付与电子货币[J].金融研究,2013(10):1-14.
[21]张雪琳,潘红玉.产业链培育、产业链招商引资和产业链融资[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2019(1):84-98.
[22]张颖,黄洁婷.基于非线性组合模型的P2P网贷平台危机预警研究[J].财经理论与实践,2017,38(6):23-28.
[23]甘元玲,谭建春.电子货币的发展对货币流通速度的影响[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,29(6):109-114.
[2]WILLIAMSON S D.Payment Systems and Monetary Policy[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2003(2):475-495.
[3]H SHIRVANI,N DELCOURE.Robust panel Unit Root Tests for the Velocity of Money in a Sample of the OECD Countries[J].Banks and Bank Systems,2014(3):36-42.
[4]SINGH S.Electronic money:understanding its use to increase the effectiveness of policy[J].Telecommunications Policy,1999,23(10-11):753-773.
[5]FUJIKI H,TANAKA M."Currency demand:new technology and the adoption of electronic money:evidence using individual household data";Economics Letters,2014,125(1):5-8.
[6]BHATTACHARYA K,SINGH S K.Impact of Payment Technology on Seasonality of Currency in Circulation:Evidence from the USA and India[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2016,14(1):117-136.
[7]Al-LAHAM M,Al-TARWNEH H,ABDALLAT N.Development of Electronic Money and Its Impact on the Central Bank Role and Monetary Policy[J].Issues in Informing Science &Information Technology,2009(6):339-349.
[8]张传勇.互联网金融对传统金融体系的影响及其监管对策:以第三方支付为例[J].新金融,2015(10):43-48.
[9]赵增强.互联网金融及其风险防控[J].税务与经济,2018(1):46-51.
[10]宫晓林.互联网金融模式及对传统银行业的影响[J].南方金融,2013(5):86-88.
[11]史亚荣,张茗.互联网金融形态对我国商业银行影响的差异分析[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2018,33(2):105-115.
[12]刘忠璐.互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响研究[J].财贸经济,2016,37(4):71-85.
[13]全颖,杨大光.互联网金融发展、支付货币电子化及对货币供给的影响[J].中国流通经济,2016,30(7):122-128.
[14]杨弋帆.电子货币对货币供给及货币乘数的影响机制研究——包含第三方支付机构的三级创造体系[J].上海金融,2014(3):47-54.
[15]陶士贵,邹艺.第三方支付对我国货币流通速度的影响[J].财会月刊,2017(36):108-114.
[16]方兴,郭子睿.第三方互联网支付、货币流通速度与货币政策有效性——基于TVP-VAR模型的研究[J].经济问题探索,2017(3):183-190.
[17]尹龙.电子货币对中央银行的影响[J].金融研究,2000(4):34-41.
[18]印文,裴平.中国的货币电子化与货币政策有效性[J].经济学家,2015(3):39-46.
[19]周光友.电子货币发展、货币乘数变动与货币政策有效性[J].经济科学,2007,29(1):34-43.
[20]谢平,刘海二.ICT、移动支付与电子货币[J].金融研究,2013(10):1-14.
[21]张雪琳,潘红玉.产业链培育、产业链招商引资和产业链融资[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2019(1):84-98.
[22]张颖,黄洁婷.基于非线性组合模型的P2P网贷平台危机预警研究[J].财经理论与实践,2017,38(6):23-28.
[23]甘元玲,谭建春.电子货币的发展对货币流通速度的影响[J].重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,29(6):109-114.