不利风向条件下北部湾人为源对海口市PM_(2.5)浓度影响的模拟研究
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摘要
通过分析2013—2017年海口市风向频率、地面PM_(2.5)浓度及海口市所处北部湾地理位置,确定12月为北部湾对海口市最不利风向时间段.利用中尺度气象模式(WRF,Weather Research Forecast)驱动空气质量模型(CMAQ,Community Multi-scale Air Quality),设置一系列数值模拟情景,深入分析北部湾人为源对海口市PM_(2.5)浓度影响.结果表明:WRF/CMAQ能很好地再现北部湾气象场和PM_(2.5)浓度的时空分布.2013年12月,北部湾人为源对海口市PM_(2.5)平均贡献率约为45.4%,其中约有90%来源于海口市自身人为源,约有10%来源于广东广西片区,海南片区除海口外其余市县贡献可忽略不计.污染时段,北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均下降,平均贡献率分别为40%和36%,表明污染时段海口市PM_(2.5)主要源区不仅来自北部湾.通过分析后向轨迹,发现污染时段均会经过一个关键区——珠三角区域,表明珠三角区域很有可能也是造成2013年12月海口市PM_(2.5)污染的主要源区.清洁时段,北部湾和海口市自身贡献率均上升,平均贡献率分别为52%和48%,表明北部湾对海口市PM_(2.5)浓度影响在清洁时段更显著.因此,北部湾未来产业规划值得关注,因为这些产业很有可能使目前海口市清洁时段变为污染时段,导致空气质量下降.
Based on analysis of monthly wind direction frequency and PM_(2.5) concentration in Haikou from 2013 to 2017,we found that pollution transport from Beibu Gulf to Haikou is greatest in December because of the most frequent wind direction. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality model( CMAQ)driven by the mesoscale meteorological model( WRF,Weather Research Forecast) is applied in this study to deeply analyze contribution from Beibu Gulf to PM_(2.5) in Haikou. WRF/CMAQ model can well reproduce the spatial-temporal distribution of meteorological field and PM_(2.5) concentration in Beibu Gulf.The results suggest that in December 2013,anthropogenic emissions from the whole Beibu Gulf contribute 45.4% to PM_(2.5) in Haikou,in which 90% is from Haikou,and 10% is from Guangdong and Guangxi District. During polluted periods,contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou reduced to 40% and36%,respectively,indicating that the Beibu Gulf isn't the only main PM_(2.5) source region for Haikou in December 2013. Through backward trajectories analysis method,we found that all the air masses passed the Pearl River Delta( PRD) region during the pollution periods. It implies that PRD was also the main source region for PM_(2.5) in Haikou during December 2013. During clean days,contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou increased to 52% and48%,respectively,indicating that the source from Beibu Gulf to PM_(2.5) in Haikou is more important in clean days than that in polluted days. Therefore,more attention should be paid to the new industrial programs in Beibu Gulf,emissions from which are likely to change the clean days to the polluted days in Haikou. As a result of this,it will decrease air quality in Haikou.
Based on analysis of monthly wind direction frequency and PM_(2.5) concentration in Haikou from 2013 to 2017,we found that pollution transport from Beibu Gulf to Haikou is greatest in December because of the most frequent wind direction. The Community Multi-scale Air Quality model( CMAQ)driven by the mesoscale meteorological model( WRF,Weather Research Forecast) is applied in this study to deeply analyze contribution from Beibu Gulf to PM_(2.5) in Haikou. WRF/CMAQ model can well reproduce the spatial-temporal distribution of meteorological field and PM_(2.5) concentration in Beibu Gulf.The results suggest that in December 2013,anthropogenic emissions from the whole Beibu Gulf contribute 45.4% to PM_(2.5) in Haikou,in which 90% is from Haikou,and 10% is from Guangdong and Guangxi District. During polluted periods,contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou reduced to 40% and36%,respectively,indicating that the Beibu Gulf isn't the only main PM_(2.5) source region for Haikou in December 2013. Through backward trajectories analysis method,we found that all the air masses passed the Pearl River Delta( PRD) region during the pollution periods. It implies that PRD was also the main source region for PM_(2.5) in Haikou during December 2013. During clean days,contributions from Beibu Gulf and Haikou increased to 52% and48%,respectively,indicating that the source from Beibu Gulf to PM_(2.5) in Haikou is more important in clean days than that in polluted days. Therefore,more attention should be paid to the new industrial programs in Beibu Gulf,emissions from which are likely to change the clean days to the polluted days in Haikou. As a result of this,it will decrease air quality in Haikou.
引文
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北部湾城市群发展规划.2016.国家发展改革委住房城乡建设部
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广西北部湾经济区“十三五规划”.2016.广西壮族自治区人民政府办公厅文件
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Kain J S.2004.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:an update[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,43(1):170-181
Liu X Y,Zhang Y,Zhang Q,et al.2016.Application of online-coupled WRF/Chem-MADRID in East Asia:Model evaluation and climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols[J].Atmospheric Environment,124:321-336
Malwer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-atmosphere,102:16663-16682
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer,Part I:Model description and testing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climate,46(9):1383-1395
苏超,田良.2016.海口市空气质量的特征及其与气象条件的关系[J].海南大学学报自然科学版,34(2):185-192
Tesche T W,Mc Nally D E,Tremback C.2002.Operational evaluation of the MM5 meteorological model over the continental United States:protocol for annual and episodic evaluation[Z].Prepared for USEPA by Alpine Geophysics,LLC,Ft.Wright,KY,and ATMET,Inc.,Boulder
Walcek C J,Taylor G R.1986.A theoretical method for computing vertical distributions of acidity and sulfate production within cumulus clouds[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,43(43):339-355
Wang L T,Wei Z,Yang J,et al.2014.The 2013 severe haze over southern Hebei,China:model evaluation,source apportionment,and policy implications[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(11):28395-28451
Wang L T,Xu J,Yang J,et al.2012.Understanding haze pollution over the southern Hebei area of China using the CMAQ model[J].Atmospheric Environment,56(5):69-79
Wang M Y,Cao C X,Li G S,et al.2015.Analysis of a severe prolonged regional haze episode in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Atmospheic Environment,102:112-121
谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.2009.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,29(10):1034-1040
Xiu A,Pleim J E.2001.Development of a land surface model,Part I:Application in a mesoscale meteorological model[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,40:192-209
Yang Y R,Liu X G,Qu Y,et al.2015.Formation mechanism of continuous extreme haze episodes in the megacity Beijing,China,in January 2013[J].Atmospheric Research,155:192-203
Yarwood G,Rao S,Yocke M,et al.2005.Updates to the Carbon Bond Chemical mechanism:CB05.Final Report to the U.S.EPA,RT-0400675.[R/OL]
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Zhang R,Jing J,Tao J,et al.2013.Chemical characterization and source apportionment of PM2.5in Beijing:seasonal perspective[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):7053-7074
Zhang Y,Liu P,Pun B,et al.2006.A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode-Part I:Evaluation protocols,databases,and meteorological predictions[J].Atmospheric Environment,40(26):4825-4838
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Zhang Y,Sartelet K,Wu S Y,et al.2013a.Application of WRF/ChemMADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe-Part 1:Model description,evaluation of meteorological predictions,and aerosolmeteorology interactions[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):6807-6843
Zhang Y,Sartelet K,Zhu S,et al.2013b.Application of WRF/ChemMADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe-Part 2:Evaluation of chemical concentrations and sensitivity simulations[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):6845-6875
Zhang Y,Wen X Y,Jang C J,et al.2010b.Simulating chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation-climate feedbacks over the continental U.S.using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry(WRF/Chem)[J].Atmospheric Environment,44(29):3568-3582
Zheng B,Zhang Q,Zhang Y,et al.2015.Heterogeneous chemistry:a mechanism missing in current models to explain secondary inorganic aerosol formation during the January 2013 haze episode in North China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,14(15):2031-2049
Zhuang B L,Li S,Wang T J,et al.2013a.Direct radiative forcing and climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols with different mixing states over China[J].Atmospheric Environment,79(11):349-361
Zhuang B L,Liu Q,Wang T J,et al.2013b.Investigation on semi-direct and indirect climate effects of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol over China[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,114(3/4):651-672
北部湾城市群发展规划.2016.国家发展改革委住房城乡建设部
Chang J S,Brost R A,Isaksen I S A,et al.1987.A three-dimensional Eulerian acid deposition model:physical concepts and formulation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-atmosphere,92(D12):14681-14700
Che W,Zheng J Y,Wang S S,et al.2011.Assessment of motor vehicle emission control policies using Model-3/CMAQ model for the Pearl River Delta region,China[J].Atmospheric Environment,45(9):1740-1751
Chou M D,Suarez M J,Ho C H,et al.1998.Parameterizations for cloud overlapping and shortwave single-scattering properties for use in general circulation and cloud ensemble models[J].Journal of Climate,11(2):202-214
Dockery D W,Pope C A,Xu X,et al.1993.An association between air-pollution and mortality in 6 United States cities[J].The New England Journal of Medicine,329(24):1753-1759
Emery C,Tai E,Yarwood G.2001.Enhanced meteorological modeling and performance evaluation for two texas episodes[Z].Prepared for the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission,ENVIRONInternational Corporation,Novato,CA,USA
符传博,唐家翔,丹利,等.2015.2013年冬季海口市一次气溶胶粒子污染事件特征及成因解析[J].环境科学学报,35(1):72-79
符传博,唐家翔,丹利,等.2016.2014年海口市大气污染物演变特征及典型污染个例分析[J].环境科学学报,36(6):2160-2169
广西北部湾经济区“十三五规划”.2016.广西壮族自治区人民政府办公厅文件
Han Z W.2010.Direct radiative effect of aerosols over East Asia with a Regional coupled Climate/Chemistry model[J].Meteorologische Zeitschirift,19(3):287-298
Han Z W,Xiong Z,Li J W.2011.Direct climatic effect of aerosols and interdecadal variations over east asia investigated by a regional coupled climate-chemistry/aerosol model[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letter,4(6):299-303
Han Z W,Li J W,Xia X G,et al.2012.Investigation of direct radiative effects of aerosols in dust storm season over East Asia with an online coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol mode l[J].Atmospheric Environment,54:688-699
He H,Wang Y S,Ma Q X,et al.2014.Mineral dust and NOx promote the conversion of SO2to sulfate in heavy pollution days[J].Science Report,4(1):4172
Hong S Y,Lim J O J.2006.The WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme(WSM6)[J].Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society,42:129-151
Jiang J K,Zhou W,Cheng Z,et al.2014.Particulate matter distributions in china during a winter period with frequent pollution episodes(January 2013)[J].Aerosol Air Quality Research,15(2):494-503
Kain J S.2004.The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:an update[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,43(1):170-181
Liu X Y,Zhang Y,Zhang Q,et al.2016.Application of online-coupled WRF/Chem-MADRID in East Asia:Model evaluation and climatic effects of anthropogenic aerosols[J].Atmospheric Environment,124:321-336
Malwer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmosphere:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-atmosphere,102:16663-16682
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer,Part I:Model description and testing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology&Climate,46(9):1383-1395
苏超,田良.2016.海口市空气质量的特征及其与气象条件的关系[J].海南大学学报自然科学版,34(2):185-192
Tesche T W,Mc Nally D E,Tremback C.2002.Operational evaluation of the MM5 meteorological model over the continental United States:protocol for annual and episodic evaluation[Z].Prepared for USEPA by Alpine Geophysics,LLC,Ft.Wright,KY,and ATMET,Inc.,Boulder
Walcek C J,Taylor G R.1986.A theoretical method for computing vertical distributions of acidity and sulfate production within cumulus clouds[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,43(43):339-355
Wang L T,Wei Z,Yang J,et al.2014.The 2013 severe haze over southern Hebei,China:model evaluation,source apportionment,and policy implications[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(11):28395-28451
Wang L T,Xu J,Yang J,et al.2012.Understanding haze pollution over the southern Hebei area of China using the CMAQ model[J].Atmospheric Environment,56(5):69-79
Wang M Y,Cao C X,Li G S,et al.2015.Analysis of a severe prolonged regional haze episode in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Atmospheic Environment,102:112-121
谢鹏,刘晓云,刘兆荣,等.2009.我国人群大气颗粒物污染暴露-反应关系的研究[J].中国环境科学,29(10):1034-1040
Xiu A,Pleim J E.2001.Development of a land surface model,Part I:Application in a mesoscale meteorological model[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,40:192-209
Yang Y R,Liu X G,Qu Y,et al.2015.Formation mechanism of continuous extreme haze episodes in the megacity Beijing,China,in January 2013[J].Atmospheric Research,155:192-203
Yarwood G,Rao S,Yocke M,et al.2005.Updates to the Carbon Bond Chemical mechanism:CB05.Final Report to the U.S.EPA,RT-0400675.[R/OL]
Zhang Q,Streets D G,Carmichael G R,et al.2009.Asian emissions in2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,9(1):5131-5153
Zhang R,Jing J,Tao J,et al.2013.Chemical characterization and source apportionment of PM2.5in Beijing:seasonal perspective[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):7053-7074
Zhang Y,Liu P,Pun B,et al.2006.A comprehensive performance evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study episode-Part I:Evaluation protocols,databases,and meteorological predictions[J].Atmospheric Environment,40(26):4825-4838
Zhang Y,Pan Y,Wang K,et al.2010a.WRF/Chem-MADRID:Incorporation of an aerosol module into WRF/Chem and its initial application to the Tex AQS2000 episode[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,115:D18202
Zhang Y,Sartelet K,Wu S Y,et al.2013a.Application of WRF/ChemMADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe-Part 1:Model description,evaluation of meteorological predictions,and aerosolmeteorology interactions[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):6807-6843
Zhang Y,Sartelet K,Zhu S,et al.2013b.Application of WRF/ChemMADRID and WRF/Polyphemus in Europe-Part 2:Evaluation of chemical concentrations and sensitivity simulations[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,13(14):6845-6875
Zhang Y,Wen X Y,Jang C J,et al.2010b.Simulating chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation-climate feedbacks over the continental U.S.using the online-coupled Weather Research Forecasting Model with chemistry(WRF/Chem)[J].Atmospheric Environment,44(29):3568-3582
Zheng B,Zhang Q,Zhang Y,et al.2015.Heterogeneous chemistry:a mechanism missing in current models to explain secondary inorganic aerosol formation during the January 2013 haze episode in North China[J].Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,14(15):2031-2049
Zhuang B L,Li S,Wang T J,et al.2013a.Direct radiative forcing and climate effects of anthropogenic aerosols with different mixing states over China[J].Atmospheric Environment,79(11):349-361
Zhuang B L,Liu Q,Wang T J,et al.2013b.Investigation on semi-direct and indirect climate effects of fossil fuel black carbon aerosol over China[J].Theoretical&Applied Climatology,114(3/4):651-672
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