江淮流域梅雨期气候对全球气候变暖的响应
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摘要
在全球气候变暖背景下,中国江淮流域梅雨期的气候响应趋于复杂,给江淮流域梅雨期的气候预测带来了更多的不确定因素。研究江淮梅雨期气候对全球变暖的响应,对于认识江淮梅雨变化新趋势、提高新气候背景下的汛期预报及制定防灾减灾政策均有深远意义。采用中国地面气温和降水日值数据集对近几十年来江淮地区梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了深入分析,基于观测结果,评估了国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)的22个模式结果,并对CMIP5模式预估的21世纪中排放(RCP4.5)和高排放(RCP8.5)情景下中国江淮流域梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了分析,并对梅雨期气候变化的机理进行了探讨。研究结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,江淮地区梅雨期气候亦发生了相应的变化,气温呈现出显著的升高趋势,降水亦发生了相应调整,在较暖年降水偏多,较冷年降水偏少。在未来全球进一步变暖的背景下,江淮地区梅雨期平均气温进一步升高,降水进一步增多,且随着排放量的增加,降水的空间分布不均匀性也在加剧。
In the context of global warming, the climate over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley(YHRV, 28°-34°N, 110°-122°E) of China tends to be more complicated. The climate prediction during the Meiyu period over the YHRV is a scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. We investigate the response of the climate during the Meiyu period over the YHRV in recent decades in this study. Through assessing the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models over the YHRV Region, the surface air temperature and precipitation over this region during the 21 century are predicted under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios basing on simulations of 22 CMIP5 models. The related mechanism is studied as well. The result shows that under the background of global warming, climate in the YHRV during the Meiyu period has been undergoing corresponding changes. The surface air temperature during the Meiyu period over the YHRV shows an increasing trend at the rate of 0.40℃/(10 a), and the precipitation adjusts correspondingly at the same time. The precipitation becomes relatively more in the warm years but less in the cold years. With global warming in the future, averaged temperature and precipitation during the Meiyu period over the YHRV would further increase, and the spatial distribution of precipitation would become more inhomogeneous.
In the context of global warming, the climate over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley(YHRV, 28°-34°N, 110°-122°E) of China tends to be more complicated. The climate prediction during the Meiyu period over the YHRV is a scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. We investigate the response of the climate during the Meiyu period over the YHRV in recent decades in this study. Through assessing the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models over the YHRV Region, the surface air temperature and precipitation over this region during the 21 century are predicted under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios basing on simulations of 22 CMIP5 models. The related mechanism is studied as well. The result shows that under the background of global warming, climate in the YHRV during the Meiyu period has been undergoing corresponding changes. The surface air temperature during the Meiyu period over the YHRV shows an increasing trend at the rate of 0.40℃/(10 a), and the precipitation adjusts correspondingly at the same time. The precipitation becomes relatively more in the warm years but less in the cold years. With global warming in the future, averaged temperature and precipitation during the Meiyu period over the YHRV would further increase, and the spatial distribution of precipitation would become more inhomogeneous.
引文
陈菊英, 程华琼, 王威. 2007. 中国异常增暖来年江淮流域易发生大洪水. 地球物理学进展, 22(4): 1380-1385. Chen J Y, Cheng H Q, Wang W. 2007. The Chinese abnormal warming is important predictive sign of occurring torrential of rain and heavy floods in the Yangtze river valley or the Huai River bison in next summer. Progress Geophys, 22(4): 1380-1385 (in Chinese)
陈旭. 2015. 气候变暖背景下江淮梅雨由典型向非典型演变的统计特征及其成因分析[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学. Chen X. A study on statistical characteristics of Meiyu turning from typical to atypical and its possible causes[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
丁一汇, 柳俊杰, 孙颖等. 2007. 东亚梅雨系统的天气-气候学研究. 大气科学, 31(6): 1082-1101. Ding Y H, Liu J J, Sun Y, et al. 2007. A study of the synoptic-climatology of the Meiyu system in East Asia. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 31(6): 1082-1101 (in Chinese)
公颖. 2004. 梅雨锋暴雨中尺度系统的模式试验和分析[D]. 南京: 南京气象学院. Gong Y. 2004. The model experiment and analysis of the meso-scale systems in the course of Meiyu frontal rainstorm[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
龚道溢, 朱锦红, 王绍武. 2002. 长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关. 科学通报, 47(7): 546-549. Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Wang S W. 2002. Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Chinese Sci Bull, 47(11): 948-951 (in Chinese)
胡娅敏, 丁一汇, 廖菲. 2008. 江淮地区梅雨的新定义及其气候特征. 大气科学, 32(1): 101-112. Hu Y M, Ding Y H, Liao F. 2008. A study of updated definition and climatological characters of Meiyu season in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 32(1): 101-112 (in Chinese)
胡娅敏, 丁一汇. 2009. 2000年以来江淮梅雨带北移的可能成因分析. 气象, 35(12): 37-43. Hu Y M, Ding Y H. 2009. Possible reasons for northward shift of Meiyu belt in Yangtze-huaihe river region during 2000-2005. Meteor Mon, 35(12): 37-43 (in Chinese)
梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海. 2008. 长江下游夏季降水与东亚夏季风及春季太平洋海温的关系. 高原气象, 27(4): 772-777. Liang P, Ding Y H, He J H. 2008. Relations between summer rainfall over the lower reach of Yangtze river and East Asian summer monsoon as well as sea surface temperature over the Pacific in spring. Plateau Meteor, 27(4): 772-777 (in Chinese)
梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海等. 2010. 江淮区域梅雨的划分指标研究. 大气科学, 34(2): 418-428. Liang P, Ding Y H, He J H, et al. 2010. A study of determination index of regional Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe basin. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 34(2): 418-428 (in Chinese)
钱维宏, 朱江, 王永光等. 2009. 江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系. 科学通报, 54(1): 79-84. Qian W H, Zhu J, Wang Y G, et al. 2009. Regional relationship between the Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies. Chinese Sci Bull, 54(1): 113-119
沈瑱, 张耀存, 肖卉等. 2011. BCC_AGCM2.0.1模式系统对江淮梅雨期降水的模拟能力. 气象, 37(11): 1336-1342. Shen Z, Zhang Y C, Xiao H, et al. 2011. Ability of the model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 to reproduce Meiyu precipitation. Meteor Mon, 37(11): 1336-1342 (in Chinese)
司东, 丁一汇, 柳艳菊. 2009. 全球海气耦合模式(BCC_CM1.0)对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验. 气象学报, 67(6): 947-960. Si D, Ding Y H, Liu Y J. 2009. Evaluation of meiyu prediction in the Yangtze-Huaihe region by coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (BCC_CM1.0). Acta Meteor Sinica, 67(6): 947-960 (in Chinese)
司东, 丁一汇, 柳艳菊. 2010. 中国梅雨雨带年代际尺度上的北移及其原因. 科学通报, 55(1): 68-73. Si D, Ding Y H, Liu Y J. 2010. Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause. Chinese Sci Bull, 54(24): 4742-4748 (in Chinese)
孙颖, 丁一汇. 2009. 未来百年东亚夏季降水和季风预测的研究. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 39(11): 1487-1504. Sun Y, Ding Y H. 2009. A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia. Sci China Earth Sci, 53(2): 284-300 (in Chinese)
孙玉婷. 2014. 气候变暖背景下江淮梅雨带的变动及其与水汽输送的联系[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学. Sun Y T. 2014. Changes in the Meiyu belt and its association with water vapor transport in terms of global warming[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
陶诗言, 朱文妹, 赵卫. 1988. 论梅雨的年际变异. 大气科学, 12(S1): 13-21. Tao S Y, Zhu W M, Zhao W. 1988. Interannual variability of Meiyu rainfalls. Sci Atmos Sinica 12(S1): 13-21 (in Chinese)
吴蓉, 张耀存. 2012. RegCM3模式对江淮流域梅雨期降水和环流形势的模拟性能检验. 气象科学, 32(2): 119-126. Wu R, Zhang Y C. 2012. Performance of RegCM3 in simulating the rainfall and associated circulation in Meiyu period of Yangtze and Huaihe river valleys. J Meteor Sci, 32(2): 119-126 (in Chinese)
徐群. 2007. 121年梅雨演变中的近期强年代际变化. 水科学进展, 18(3): 327-335. Xu Q. 2007. Recent strong decadal change of Meiyu in 121 years. Adv Water Sci, 18(3): 327-335 (in Chinese)
姚遥, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 2012. 8个CMIP5模式对中国极端气温的模拟和预估. 气候变化研究进展, 8(4): 250-256. Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B. 2012. Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on 8 modeling data from CMIP5. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 8(4): 250-256 (in Chinese)
叶笃正, 黄荣辉, 王绍武等. 1996. 长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究. 济南: 山东科学技术出版社, 387pp. Ye D Z, Huang R H, Wang S W, et al. 1996. Research on the Regularity and Cause of Droughts and Floodings in the Yangtze River Valley and the Yellow River Valley. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 387pp (in Chinese)
周曾奎. 1996. 江淮梅雨. 北京: 气象出版社. Zhou Z K. 1996. Meiyu over the Yantze-Huaihe River Basin. Beijing: China Meteorological Press (in Chinese)
朱玉祥, 丁一汇, 徐怀刚. 2007. 青藏高原大气热源和冬春积雪与中国东部降水的年代际变化关系. 气象学报, 65(6): 946-958. Zhu Y X, Ding Y H, Xu H G. 2007. The decadal relationship between atmospheric heat source of winter and spring snow over Tibetan Plateau and rainfall in East China. Acta Meteor Sinica, 65(6): 946-958 (in Chinese)
Chen H P. 2013. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chinese Sci Bull, 58(12): 1462-1472
Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, et al. 2014. Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet Change, 112: 41-52
Huang R H, Zhang R H, Zhang Q Y. 2000. The 1997/98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Adv Atmos Sci, 17(3): 348-362
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group Ⅰ Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press
IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers//Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press
Jiang D B, Tian Z P. 2013. East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Chinese Sci Bul, 58(12): 1427-1435
Meehl G A, Covey C, Delworth T, et al. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 88(9): 1383-1394
Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463(7282): 747-756
Murakami T. 1959. The general circulation and water vapor balance over the far East during the rainy season. Geophys Mag, 29(2): 131-171
Serrano A, Mateos V L, Garcia J A. 1999. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the iberian peninsula for the period 1921-1995. Phys Chem Earth B, 24(1-2): 85-90
Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 93(4): 485-498
Trenberth K. 2005. Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming. Science, 308(5729): 1753-1754
Wei F Y, Zhang T. 2009. Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background. Sci China Earth Sci, 2010, 53(2): 301-316
Xie Y K, Liu Y Z, Huang J P. 2016. Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid-latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations. Int J Climatol, 36(14): 4475-4487
Zhang R H, Sumi A, Kimoto M. 1999. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Ni?o on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 16(2): 229-241
Zhu X, Wu Z, He J. 2008. Anomalous Meiyu onset averaged over the Yangtze River valley. Theor Appl Climatol, 94(1-2): 81-95
① 中国气象局预报与网络司. 2014. 关于印发《梅雨监测业务规定》的通知(气预函(2014)28号)。
陈旭. 2015. 气候变暖背景下江淮梅雨由典型向非典型演变的统计特征及其成因分析[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学. Chen X. A study on statistical characteristics of Meiyu turning from typical to atypical and its possible causes[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
丁一汇, 柳俊杰, 孙颖等. 2007. 东亚梅雨系统的天气-气候学研究. 大气科学, 31(6): 1082-1101. Ding Y H, Liu J J, Sun Y, et al. 2007. A study of the synoptic-climatology of the Meiyu system in East Asia. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 31(6): 1082-1101 (in Chinese)
公颖. 2004. 梅雨锋暴雨中尺度系统的模式试验和分析[D]. 南京: 南京气象学院. Gong Y. 2004. The model experiment and analysis of the meso-scale systems in the course of Meiyu frontal rainstorm[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
龚道溢, 朱锦红, 王绍武. 2002. 长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关. 科学通报, 47(7): 546-549. Gong D Y, Zhu J H, Wang S W. 2002. Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Chinese Sci Bull, 47(11): 948-951 (in Chinese)
胡娅敏, 丁一汇, 廖菲. 2008. 江淮地区梅雨的新定义及其气候特征. 大气科学, 32(1): 101-112. Hu Y M, Ding Y H, Liao F. 2008. A study of updated definition and climatological characters of Meiyu season in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 32(1): 101-112 (in Chinese)
胡娅敏, 丁一汇. 2009. 2000年以来江淮梅雨带北移的可能成因分析. 气象, 35(12): 37-43. Hu Y M, Ding Y H. 2009. Possible reasons for northward shift of Meiyu belt in Yangtze-huaihe river region during 2000-2005. Meteor Mon, 35(12): 37-43 (in Chinese)
梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海. 2008. 长江下游夏季降水与东亚夏季风及春季太平洋海温的关系. 高原气象, 27(4): 772-777. Liang P, Ding Y H, He J H. 2008. Relations between summer rainfall over the lower reach of Yangtze river and East Asian summer monsoon as well as sea surface temperature over the Pacific in spring. Plateau Meteor, 27(4): 772-777 (in Chinese)
梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海等. 2010. 江淮区域梅雨的划分指标研究. 大气科学, 34(2): 418-428. Liang P, Ding Y H, He J H, et al. 2010. A study of determination index of regional Meiyu over the Yangtze-Huaihe basin. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 34(2): 418-428 (in Chinese)
钱维宏, 朱江, 王永光等. 2009. 江淮梅雨和赤道太平洋区域海温变化的关系. 科学通报, 54(1): 79-84. Qian W H, Zhu J, Wang Y G, et al. 2009. Regional relationship between the Jiang-Huai Meiyu and the equatorial surface-subsurface temperature anomalies. Chinese Sci Bull, 54(1): 113-119
沈瑱, 张耀存, 肖卉等. 2011. BCC_AGCM2.0.1模式系统对江淮梅雨期降水的模拟能力. 气象, 37(11): 1336-1342. Shen Z, Zhang Y C, Xiao H, et al. 2011. Ability of the model BCC_AGCM2.0.1 to reproduce Meiyu precipitation. Meteor Mon, 37(11): 1336-1342 (in Chinese)
司东, 丁一汇, 柳艳菊. 2009. 全球海气耦合模式(BCC_CM1.0)对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验. 气象学报, 67(6): 947-960. Si D, Ding Y H, Liu Y J. 2009. Evaluation of meiyu prediction in the Yangtze-Huaihe region by coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (BCC_CM1.0). Acta Meteor Sinica, 67(6): 947-960 (in Chinese)
司东, 丁一汇, 柳艳菊. 2010. 中国梅雨雨带年代际尺度上的北移及其原因. 科学通报, 55(1): 68-73. Si D, Ding Y H, Liu Y J. 2010. Decadal northward shift of the Meiyu belt and the possible cause. Chinese Sci Bull, 54(24): 4742-4748 (in Chinese)
孙颖, 丁一汇. 2009. 未来百年东亚夏季降水和季风预测的研究. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 39(11): 1487-1504. Sun Y, Ding Y H. 2009. A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia. Sci China Earth Sci, 53(2): 284-300 (in Chinese)
孙玉婷. 2014. 气候变暖背景下江淮梅雨带的变动及其与水汽输送的联系[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学. Sun Y T. 2014. Changes in the Meiyu belt and its association with water vapor transport in terms of global warming[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (in Chinese)
陶诗言, 朱文妹, 赵卫. 1988. 论梅雨的年际变异. 大气科学, 12(S1): 13-21. Tao S Y, Zhu W M, Zhao W. 1988. Interannual variability of Meiyu rainfalls. Sci Atmos Sinica 12(S1): 13-21 (in Chinese)
吴蓉, 张耀存. 2012. RegCM3模式对江淮流域梅雨期降水和环流形势的模拟性能检验. 气象科学, 32(2): 119-126. Wu R, Zhang Y C. 2012. Performance of RegCM3 in simulating the rainfall and associated circulation in Meiyu period of Yangtze and Huaihe river valleys. J Meteor Sci, 32(2): 119-126 (in Chinese)
徐群. 2007. 121年梅雨演变中的近期强年代际变化. 水科学进展, 18(3): 327-335. Xu Q. 2007. Recent strong decadal change of Meiyu in 121 years. Adv Water Sci, 18(3): 327-335 (in Chinese)
姚遥, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 2012. 8个CMIP5模式对中国极端气温的模拟和预估. 气候变化研究进展, 8(4): 250-256. Yao Y, Luo Y, Huang J B. 2012. Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China based on 8 modeling data from CMIP5. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 8(4): 250-256 (in Chinese)
叶笃正, 黄荣辉, 王绍武等. 1996. 长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究. 济南: 山东科学技术出版社, 387pp. Ye D Z, Huang R H, Wang S W, et al. 1996. Research on the Regularity and Cause of Droughts and Floodings in the Yangtze River Valley and the Yellow River Valley. Jinan: Shandong Science and Technology Press, 387pp (in Chinese)
周曾奎. 1996. 江淮梅雨. 北京: 气象出版社. Zhou Z K. 1996. Meiyu over the Yantze-Huaihe River Basin. Beijing: China Meteorological Press (in Chinese)
朱玉祥, 丁一汇, 徐怀刚. 2007. 青藏高原大气热源和冬春积雪与中国东部降水的年代际变化关系. 气象学报, 65(6): 946-958. Zhu Y X, Ding Y H, Xu H G. 2007. The decadal relationship between atmospheric heat source of winter and spring snow over Tibetan Plateau and rainfall in East China. Acta Meteor Sinica, 65(6): 946-958 (in Chinese)
Chen H P. 2013. Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chinese Sci Bull, 58(12): 1462-1472
Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, et al. 2014. Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet Change, 112: 41-52
Huang R H, Zhang R H, Zhang Q Y. 2000. The 1997/98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Adv Atmos Sci, 17(3): 348-362
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group Ⅰ Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press
IPCC. 2013. Summary for policymakers//Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press
Jiang D B, Tian Z P. 2013. East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Chinese Sci Bul, 58(12): 1427-1435
Meehl G A, Covey C, Delworth T, et al. 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 88(9): 1383-1394
Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463(7282): 747-756
Murakami T. 1959. The general circulation and water vapor balance over the far East during the rainy season. Geophys Mag, 29(2): 131-171
Serrano A, Mateos V L, Garcia J A. 1999. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the iberian peninsula for the period 1921-1995. Phys Chem Earth B, 24(1-2): 85-90
Taylor K E, Stouffer R J, Meehl G A. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 93(4): 485-498
Trenberth K. 2005. Uncertainty in hurricanes and global warming. Science, 308(5729): 1753-1754
Wei F Y, Zhang T. 2009. Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background. Sci China Earth Sci, 2010, 53(2): 301-316
Xie Y K, Liu Y Z, Huang J P. 2016. Overestimated Arctic warming and underestimated Eurasia mid-latitude warming in CMIP5 simulations. Int J Climatol, 36(14): 4475-4487
Zhang R H, Sumi A, Kimoto M. 1999. A diagnostic study of the impact of El Ni?o on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci, 16(2): 229-241
Zhu X, Wu Z, He J. 2008. Anomalous Meiyu onset averaged over the Yangtze River valley. Theor Appl Climatol, 94(1-2): 81-95
① 中国气象局预报与网络司. 2014. 关于印发《梅雨监测业务规定》的通知(气预函(2014)28号)。