基于双论域量化模糊粗糙集的公共卫生应急决策模型
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摘要
公共卫生应急决策是公共卫生管理的核心,也是有效应对公共卫生事件的关键.近年来频发的公共卫生事件已对公众安全和身体健康造成严重的威胁.因此,亟待研究应对突发公共卫生事件的应急决策理论与方法.文章以公共卫生应急决策为研究背景讨论双论域量化模糊粗糙集理论与方法.首先定义了基于模糊相容关系的双论域量化模糊粗糙集模型,进而充分考虑公共卫生应急决策问题的特征,并将公共卫生应急决策过程转化为具有模糊决策对象的模糊近似决策问题,构建基于突发公共卫生应急决策的双论域量化模糊粗糙集应用模型.通过在双论域量化近似空间上计算模糊决策对象的上下近似,并结合经典非确定型决策的思想给出公共卫生应急处置的决策规则.该模型提出了一种在不完全信息环境下公共卫生应急决策的方法,以及在充分考虑决策者个人偏好信息基础上的最优决策规则.最后,将理论模型应用于两个不同的公共卫生应急决策问题以说明文章所构建模型的应用过程及其有效性,同时结合数值算例应用结果提出处理实际问题时相应的决策建议.
Emergency decision making of public health is the core of public health management,and also the key to effective response and successful disposal of public health events.In recent years,frequent public health events have posed serious threats to human life security and social stability.Therefore,it is urgent to study the emergency decision theory and methods for dealing with public health emergencies.In this paper,we discuss the theory of double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes with the background of public health decision-making.Then we define a double quantitative fuzzy set model based on the fuzzy compatible relation over two universes.By the theory of double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes,the public health decision-making changes into a fuzzy approximation of a fuzzy decision object on the decision approximation space over two universes.So,we construct the model of public health decision-making based on double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes.We compute the lower(upper)approximation of the fuzzy decision object with respect to the double quantitative approximation space over two universes,and then present the public health decision rules by combing the idea of uncertainty decision-making.Moreover,the algorithm of the decision is given.This model gives a kind of decision approach to public health decision-making under the condition of incomplete information.Furthermore,it also gives the optimal decision rules by considering the preference of the decision-makers.The proposed model could give a properly descriptive of the characters for the public health decision-making with incomplete information and urgently time.Therefore,it can provide a basic theory and a decision approach in practice for public health decision-making.Finally,the theoretical model is applied to two different public health emergency decision-making problems,and the application process and effectiveness of the model constructed in this paper is illustrated.
Emergency decision making of public health is the core of public health management,and also the key to effective response and successful disposal of public health events.In recent years,frequent public health events have posed serious threats to human life security and social stability.Therefore,it is urgent to study the emergency decision theory and methods for dealing with public health emergencies.In this paper,we discuss the theory of double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes with the background of public health decision-making.Then we define a double quantitative fuzzy set model based on the fuzzy compatible relation over two universes.By the theory of double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes,the public health decision-making changes into a fuzzy approximation of a fuzzy decision object on the decision approximation space over two universes.So,we construct the model of public health decision-making based on double quantitative fuzzy set over two universes.We compute the lower(upper)approximation of the fuzzy decision object with respect to the double quantitative approximation space over two universes,and then present the public health decision rules by combing the idea of uncertainty decision-making.Moreover,the algorithm of the decision is given.This model gives a kind of decision approach to public health decision-making under the condition of incomplete information.Furthermore,it also gives the optimal decision rules by considering the preference of the decision-makers.The proposed model could give a properly descriptive of the characters for the public health decision-making with incomplete information and urgently time.Therefore,it can provide a basic theory and a decision approach in practice for public health decision-making.Finally,the theoretical model is applied to two different public health emergency decision-making problems,and the application process and effectiveness of the model constructed in this paper is illustrated.
引文
[1]国务院.突发公共卫生事件应急条例.http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-05/20/content_145.htm,2017-06-09.(The State Council.Emergency regulations for public health emergencies.http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-05/20/content_145.htm,2017-06-09.)
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[3]何建敏,刘春林,曹杰,等.应急管理与应急系统——选址、调度与算法.北京:科学出版社,2005.(He J M,Liu C L,Cao J,et al.Emergency management and emergency systems—Location,scheduling,and algorithms.Beijing:Science Press,2005.)
[4]李立明,吕筠.关注循证公共卫生决策.中华流行痴学杂志,2006,27(1):1-4.(Li L M,Lii Y.Pay close attention to the evidence-based public health policy.Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,2006,27(1):1-4.)
[5]李仕波.灾疫时期的公共卫生伦理探析.医学与哲学,2015,36(19):18-20.(Li S B.Analysis on public health ethics during the period of disasters and epidemics.Medicine and Philosophy,2015,36(19):18-20.)
[6]常玲慧,马斌.突发公共卫生事件应急决策中的知识管理研究.科技管理研究,2013,33(4):203-207.(Chang L H,Ma B.Research on knowledge management in public health emergency decisionmaking.Science and Technology Management Research, 2013,33(4):203-207.)
[7]杨建林,王文龙.公共卫生类突发事件的抽取研究.情报理论与实践,2016,39(4):51-59.(Yang J L,Wang W L.Research on event extraction for public health emergencies.Information Studies:Theory&Application,2016,39(4):51-59.)
[8]方安,洪娜,高东平,等.传染病本体构建及其在知识服务平台中的应用.现代图书情报技术,2012,28(1):7-12.(Fang A,Hong N,Gao D P,et al.Infection disease ontology construction and application in the knowledge service platform.New Technology of Library and Information Service, 2012,28(1):7-12.)
[9]高珊,王文俊,杜磊,等.传染病应急案例共享本体模型研究.计算机应用,2010,30(11):2924-2927.(Gao S,Wang W J,Du L,et al.Research on shared ontology model for infectious disease emergency case.Journal of Computer Applications,2010,30(11):2924-2927.)
[10]曾子明,黄城莺.生命周期视角下的公共卫生类突发事件知识管理体系研究.现代情报,2017,37(10):23-27.(Zeng Z M,Huang C Y.Research on knowledge management system of public health emergency in the perspective of life cycle.Modern Information,2017,37(10):23-27.)
[11]Yao Y,Lin T Y.Generalization of rough sets using modal logic.Intelligent Automation and Soft Computing, 1996,2(2):103-119.
[12]Qian Y H,Zhang H,Sang Y L,et al.Multigranulation decision-theoretic rough sets.International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2014,55(1):225-237.
[13]孙秉珍,马卫民,赵海燕.基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型与方法.运筹与管理,2014,23(2):41-48.(Sun B Z,Ma W M,Zhao H Y.The model and approach emergency decision-making based on fuzzy rough set over two universes.Operations Research and Management Science, 2014,23(2):41-48.)
[14]Li W T,Xu W H.Double-quantitative decision-theoretic rough set.Information Sciences,2015,316:54-67.
[15]Yao Y Y,Deng X F.Quantitative rough sets based on subsethood measures.Information Sciences,2014,267(5):306-322.
[16]Fan B J,Tsang E C C,Xu W H,et al.Double-quantitative rough fuzzy set based decisions:A logical operations method.Information Sciences An International Journal,2017,378:264-281.
[17]Li W T,Xu W H.Double-quantitative decision-theoretic rough set.Information Sciences,2015,316:54-67.
[18]Sun B Z,Ma W M.Fuzzy rough set model on two different universes and its application.Applied Mathematical Modelling,2011,35(4):1798-1809.
[19]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets.Information and Control, 1965,8(3):338-353.
[20]张文修,吴志伟,梁吉业,等.粗糙集理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,2001.(Zhang W X,Wu Z W,Liang J Y,et al.Rough Set Theory and Method.Beijing:Science Press,2001.)
[21]Zhang X Y,Miao D Q.Quantitative information architecture,granular computing and rough set models in the double-quantitative approximation space on precision and grade.Information Sciences,2014,268(2):147-168.
[22]孙秉珍,胡晓元.双论域上量化粗糙集模型及应用.计算机工程与应用,2017,53(20):50-55.(Sun B Z,Hu X Y.Quantitative rough set model over two universes and its application.Computer Engineering and Applications,2017,53(20):50-55.)
[23]Radzikowska A M,Kerre E E.A comparative study of fuzzy rough sets.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,126(2):137-155.
[24]Schweizer B,Sklar A.Associative functions and statistical triangle inequalities.Publicationes Mathematicae Debrecen,1961,8:169-186.
[25]Schweizer B,Sklar A.Probabilistic Metric Spaces.New York:Dover Publications,2011.
[26]张玲,王晶,黄钧.不确定需求下应急资源配置的鲁棒优化方法.系统科学与数学,2010,30(10):1283-1292.(Zhang L,Wang J,Huang J.Robust optimal resource allocation model for uncertain demands.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2010,30(10):1283-1292.)
[27]Yao Y Y,Lin T Y.Generalization of rough sets using model logics.Intelligent Automatic and Soft Computing,1996,2(2):103-120.
[28]方兴华,宋明顺,鲁伟.测量不确定度信息约束下的最大熵分布研究.系统科学与数学,2017,37(12):2337-2346.(Fang X H,Song M S,Lu W.Research on maximum entropy distribution under measurement uncertainty constraints.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2017,37(12):2337-2346.)
[2]张义.突发公共卫生事件中政府应急管理研究——基于吉林省甲型H1N1流感防控的实证分析.博士论文.吉林大学,2011.(Zhang Y.Research on government management countermeasure to emergent events of public health—Exampling the prevention estimation of Influenza A(H1N1)in Jilin Province,Doctoral Thesis.Jilin University,2011.)
[3]何建敏,刘春林,曹杰,等.应急管理与应急系统——选址、调度与算法.北京:科学出版社,2005.(He J M,Liu C L,Cao J,et al.Emergency management and emergency systems—Location,scheduling,and algorithms.Beijing:Science Press,2005.)
[4]李立明,吕筠.关注循证公共卫生决策.中华流行痴学杂志,2006,27(1):1-4.(Li L M,Lii Y.Pay close attention to the evidence-based public health policy.Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,2006,27(1):1-4.)
[5]李仕波.灾疫时期的公共卫生伦理探析.医学与哲学,2015,36(19):18-20.(Li S B.Analysis on public health ethics during the period of disasters and epidemics.Medicine and Philosophy,2015,36(19):18-20.)
[6]常玲慧,马斌.突发公共卫生事件应急决策中的知识管理研究.科技管理研究,2013,33(4):203-207.(Chang L H,Ma B.Research on knowledge management in public health emergency decisionmaking.Science and Technology Management Research, 2013,33(4):203-207.)
[7]杨建林,王文龙.公共卫生类突发事件的抽取研究.情报理论与实践,2016,39(4):51-59.(Yang J L,Wang W L.Research on event extraction for public health emergencies.Information Studies:Theory&Application,2016,39(4):51-59.)
[8]方安,洪娜,高东平,等.传染病本体构建及其在知识服务平台中的应用.现代图书情报技术,2012,28(1):7-12.(Fang A,Hong N,Gao D P,et al.Infection disease ontology construction and application in the knowledge service platform.New Technology of Library and Information Service, 2012,28(1):7-12.)
[9]高珊,王文俊,杜磊,等.传染病应急案例共享本体模型研究.计算机应用,2010,30(11):2924-2927.(Gao S,Wang W J,Du L,et al.Research on shared ontology model for infectious disease emergency case.Journal of Computer Applications,2010,30(11):2924-2927.)
[10]曾子明,黄城莺.生命周期视角下的公共卫生类突发事件知识管理体系研究.现代情报,2017,37(10):23-27.(Zeng Z M,Huang C Y.Research on knowledge management system of public health emergency in the perspective of life cycle.Modern Information,2017,37(10):23-27.)
[11]Yao Y,Lin T Y.Generalization of rough sets using modal logic.Intelligent Automation and Soft Computing, 1996,2(2):103-119.
[12]Qian Y H,Zhang H,Sang Y L,et al.Multigranulation decision-theoretic rough sets.International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2014,55(1):225-237.
[13]孙秉珍,马卫民,赵海燕.基于双论域模糊粗糙集的应急决策模型与方法.运筹与管理,2014,23(2):41-48.(Sun B Z,Ma W M,Zhao H Y.The model and approach emergency decision-making based on fuzzy rough set over two universes.Operations Research and Management Science, 2014,23(2):41-48.)
[14]Li W T,Xu W H.Double-quantitative decision-theoretic rough set.Information Sciences,2015,316:54-67.
[15]Yao Y Y,Deng X F.Quantitative rough sets based on subsethood measures.Information Sciences,2014,267(5):306-322.
[16]Fan B J,Tsang E C C,Xu W H,et al.Double-quantitative rough fuzzy set based decisions:A logical operations method.Information Sciences An International Journal,2017,378:264-281.
[17]Li W T,Xu W H.Double-quantitative decision-theoretic rough set.Information Sciences,2015,316:54-67.
[18]Sun B Z,Ma W M.Fuzzy rough set model on two different universes and its application.Applied Mathematical Modelling,2011,35(4):1798-1809.
[19]Zadeh L A.Fuzzy sets.Information and Control, 1965,8(3):338-353.
[20]张文修,吴志伟,梁吉业,等.粗糙集理论与方法.北京:科学出版社,2001.(Zhang W X,Wu Z W,Liang J Y,et al.Rough Set Theory and Method.Beijing:Science Press,2001.)
[21]Zhang X Y,Miao D Q.Quantitative information architecture,granular computing and rough set models in the double-quantitative approximation space on precision and grade.Information Sciences,2014,268(2):147-168.
[22]孙秉珍,胡晓元.双论域上量化粗糙集模型及应用.计算机工程与应用,2017,53(20):50-55.(Sun B Z,Hu X Y.Quantitative rough set model over two universes and its application.Computer Engineering and Applications,2017,53(20):50-55.)
[23]Radzikowska A M,Kerre E E.A comparative study of fuzzy rough sets.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2002,126(2):137-155.
[24]Schweizer B,Sklar A.Associative functions and statistical triangle inequalities.Publicationes Mathematicae Debrecen,1961,8:169-186.
[25]Schweizer B,Sklar A.Probabilistic Metric Spaces.New York:Dover Publications,2011.
[26]张玲,王晶,黄钧.不确定需求下应急资源配置的鲁棒优化方法.系统科学与数学,2010,30(10):1283-1292.(Zhang L,Wang J,Huang J.Robust optimal resource allocation model for uncertain demands.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2010,30(10):1283-1292.)
[27]Yao Y Y,Lin T Y.Generalization of rough sets using model logics.Intelligent Automatic and Soft Computing,1996,2(2):103-120.
[28]方兴华,宋明顺,鲁伟.测量不确定度信息约束下的最大熵分布研究.系统科学与数学,2017,37(12):2337-2346.(Fang X H,Song M S,Lu W.Research on maximum entropy distribution under measurement uncertainty constraints.Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2017,37(12):2337-2346.)
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