金沙江航运开发的必要性研究——基于云南省物流需求GM(1,1)灰色预测分析
|
摘要
金沙江为长江上游,其作为连接滇中地区和长江经济带的重要纽带,自古以来人们就一直在探索其航运开发的可行性和必要性。金沙江航运一旦开通,不但在流域经济发展中会起着基础性作用,更是打通东南亚、南亚——滇中——长江经济带物流大通道的关键一环。在对金沙江下游进行实地考察的基础上,文中通过模糊预测GM(1,1)预测云南省未来货运量的发展情况以及GDP的发展情况,同时,结合定性分析认为金沙江航运开发对云南省经济有重要影响,对云南建设"辐射中心"有积极推动作用。
Jinsha River is the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. As an important link between the central area of Yunnan and the Yangtze River economic belt,it always being explored the feasibility and necessity of its shipping development since ancient times. Once the Jinsha River shipping is opened,it will not only play a fundamental role in the economic development of the river basin but also a key link for opening up the logistics corridor in Southeast Asia&South Asia-Central Yunnan-the Yangtze River economic belt. Based on the field investigation in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River,this paper predicts the future freight volume and GDP of Yunnan Province by fuzzy prediction GM( 1,1) and combined with qualitative analysis,it is considered that the shipping development of the Jinsha River has an important impact on the economy of Yunnan Province and will promote the construction of"radiation center"in Yunnan province.
Jinsha River is the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. As an important link between the central area of Yunnan and the Yangtze River economic belt,it always being explored the feasibility and necessity of its shipping development since ancient times. Once the Jinsha River shipping is opened,it will not only play a fundamental role in the economic development of the river basin but also a key link for opening up the logistics corridor in Southeast Asia&South Asia-Central Yunnan-the Yangtze River economic belt. Based on the field investigation in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River,this paper predicts the future freight volume and GDP of Yunnan Province by fuzzy prediction GM( 1,1) and combined with qualitative analysis,it is considered that the shipping development of the Jinsha River has an important impact on the economy of Yunnan Province and will promote the construction of"radiation center"in Yunnan province.
引文
[1]刘若芳,孔未名.乾隆年间疏浚金沙江史料(上)[J].历史档案,2001(01):47-61.
[2]刘世庆,林凌,齐天乐,邵平桢,付实.长江流域上游纵深开发与源头航运中心建设[J].生态经济,2014,30(03):158-162+170.
[3]何海林.深化合作打造金沙江经济圈[J].宏观经济管理,2015(05):76-77.
[4]徐昶,吴文凤,高超,刘晓帆.金沙江航运体系的建立[J].水运管理,2017,39(06):5-7.
[5]钱俊.金沙江航运发展前景初步分析[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(03):7-9.
[6]林凌.打造第四航运中心,四川准备好了吗[N].四川日报,2013-12-18(006).
[7]李宜军.云南省内河航运规划研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003.
[8]蓝勇.清代滇铜京运路线考释[J].历史研究,2006(03):86-97+190.
[9]Demetriades P O,Mamuneas T P. Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital:Evidence from 12 OECD Economies[J]. Economic Journal,2000,110(465):687-712.
[10] Duggal V G,Saltzman C,Klein L R. Infrastructure and productivity:a nonlinear approach[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1999,92(1):47-74.
[11]刘秉镰,武鹏,刘玉海.交通基础设施与中国全要素生产率增长[J].中国工业经济,2010(3).
[12]Agénor P R. Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2008,30(4):1407-1422.
[13]Henderson V,University B. Urbanization in Developing Coun-tries[J]. New Zealand Geographer,2002,17(1):89-112.
[14] Démurger S. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(1):95-117.
[15]黄敏珍,冯永冰.基于灰色-马尔可夫链的区域物流需求预测[J].统计与决策,2009(16):166-168.
[16]张诚,周湘峰.基于灰色预测-马尔可夫链-定性分析的铁路货运量预测[J].铁道学报,2007(05):15-21.
[17]武孟飞,李炳军.基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的物流产业发展研究——以河南省经济增长背景为例[J].河南科学,2018(08):1305-1312.
[18]夏红云.基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的河南省物流经济发展规模实证分析及预测[J].物流技术,2014,33(15):263-266.
[19]江志华,朱国宝.灰色预测模型GM(1,1)及其在交通运量预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2004(02):305-307.
[2]刘世庆,林凌,齐天乐,邵平桢,付实.长江流域上游纵深开发与源头航运中心建设[J].生态经济,2014,30(03):158-162+170.
[3]何海林.深化合作打造金沙江经济圈[J].宏观经济管理,2015(05):76-77.
[4]徐昶,吴文凤,高超,刘晓帆.金沙江航运体系的建立[J].水运管理,2017,39(06):5-7.
[5]钱俊.金沙江航运发展前景初步分析[J].水利水电快报,2017,38(03):7-9.
[6]林凌.打造第四航运中心,四川准备好了吗[N].四川日报,2013-12-18(006).
[7]李宜军.云南省内河航运规划研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003.
[8]蓝勇.清代滇铜京运路线考释[J].历史研究,2006(03):86-97+190.
[9]Demetriades P O,Mamuneas T P. Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital:Evidence from 12 OECD Economies[J]. Economic Journal,2000,110(465):687-712.
[10] Duggal V G,Saltzman C,Klein L R. Infrastructure and productivity:a nonlinear approach[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1999,92(1):47-74.
[11]刘秉镰,武鹏,刘玉海.交通基础设施与中国全要素生产率增长[J].中国工业经济,2010(3).
[12]Agénor P R. Health and infrastructure in a model of endogenous growth[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2008,30(4):1407-1422.
[13]Henderson V,University B. Urbanization in Developing Coun-tries[J]. New Zealand Geographer,2002,17(1):89-112.
[14] Démurger S. Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth:An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(1):95-117.
[15]黄敏珍,冯永冰.基于灰色-马尔可夫链的区域物流需求预测[J].统计与决策,2009(16):166-168.
[16]张诚,周湘峰.基于灰色预测-马尔可夫链-定性分析的铁路货运量预测[J].铁道学报,2007(05):15-21.
[17]武孟飞,李炳军.基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的物流产业发展研究——以河南省经济增长背景为例[J].河南科学,2018(08):1305-1312.
[18]夏红云.基于灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的河南省物流经济发展规模实证分析及预测[J].物流技术,2014,33(15):263-266.
[19]江志华,朱国宝.灰色预测模型GM(1,1)及其在交通运量预测中的应用[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2004(02):305-307.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |