信息冲突与不确定条件下的装备质量状态评估
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摘要
针对质量状态评估中所需测试信息的冲突性和不确定性,及其对装备质量状态评估准确性和完备性所造成的不良影响,提出一种基于改进证据推理(evidential reasoning,ER)方法的质量状态评估方法。在对质量状态进行等级划分和测试数据预处理之后,该方法通过将各测试参数之间的"冲突"和"不确定"按比例分配到各等级,使证据之间的冲突有效降低,评估的总体不确定性减少。将其应用到导弹装备的质量状态评估中,运算结果和方法对比表明改进后的方法能有效融合冲突信息、降低评估的不确定性,且方法原理简单,理论基础充分,方便程序实现。
Aiming at the conflict and uncertainty of the test data required in the quality assessment,and the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the condition assessment,an improved method of evidential reasoning( ER) is proposed. After the quality grading and test data pretreatment,the conflict between the information and the overall uncertainty are assigned to each level of probability to reduce conflict and overall uncertainty between the evidence assessed. The method is applied to the missile equipment quality condition assessment,and the results and algorithm comparison show that the improved evidence reasoning method can effectively reduce the conflict of evidence,and the overall uncertainty of condition assessment is greatly reduced. The principle of the method is simple,the theoretical basis is sufficient,and the program is convenient to be realized.
Aiming at the conflict and uncertainty of the test data required in the quality assessment,and the incompleteness and inaccuracy of the condition assessment,an improved method of evidential reasoning( ER) is proposed. After the quality grading and test data pretreatment,the conflict between the information and the overall uncertainty are assigned to each level of probability to reduce conflict and overall uncertainty between the evidence assessed. The method is applied to the missile equipment quality condition assessment,and the results and algorithm comparison show that the improved evidence reasoning method can effectively reduce the conflict of evidence,and the overall uncertainty of condition assessment is greatly reduced. The principle of the method is simple,the theoretical basis is sufficient,and the program is convenient to be realized.
引文
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[15]YANG Jian-bo,XU Dong-ling.On the Evidential Reasoning Algorithm for Multiple Attribute Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics Part A:Systems and Humans,2002,32(3):289-304.
[16]王亮,吕卫民,滕克难.基于测试数据的长期贮存装备实时健康状态评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(6):1212-1217.WANG Liang,LWei-min,TENG Ke-nan.Real-Time Health Condition Assessment of Long-Term Storage Equipment Based on Testing Data[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(6):1212-1217.
[2]张永久,成跃,张立新.某型导弹质量评估方法研究[J].航空兵器,2007(5):56-59.ZHANG Yong-jiu,CHENG Yue,ZHANG Li-xin.Research of Quality Evaluation Methods for Certain Missile[J].Aero Weaponry,2007(5):56-59.
[3]张永久,张志利,刘文超.多型号导弹质量评估系统设计[J].航空兵器,2005(2):29-32.ZHANG Yong-jiu,ZHANG Zhi-li,LIU Wen-chao.The Quality Evaluation System for Different Missiles[J].Aero Weaponry,2005(2):29-32.
[4]李恩友.导弹质量评估方法研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2008,28(4):79-82.LI En-you.Research of Missile Quality Evaluation Methods[J].Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance,2008,28(4):79-82.
[5]赵嵩正,殷茗,梁工谦,等.大型复杂航空产品质量评估模型研究[J].航空学报,2006,27(4):588-593.ZHAO Song-zheng,YIN Ming,LIANG Gong-qian,etc.Study on Evaluation Model for Quality of Large Complex Aeronautic Product[J].Acat Aeronautica er Astronautica Sinica,2006,27(4):588-593.
[6]刘伟,杨世荣,李小强.地地导弹质量评估方法研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2006,26(2):35-37.LIU Wei,YANG Shi-rong,LI Xiao-qiang.Evaluation Method Study on the Quality of Surface to Surface Missile[J].Journal of Projectiles,Rockets,Missiles and Guidance,2006,26(2):35-37.
[7]段林杰,扈延光.装备维修过程质量评估研究[J].价值工程,2013,31(22):38-40.DUAN Lin-jie,HU Yan-guang.Evaluation on Maintenance Process Quality of Equipment[J].Value Engineering,2013,31(22):38-40.
[8]马亚龙,邵秋峰,孙明,等.评估理论和方法及其军事应用[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2013:7-9.MA Ya-long,SHAO Qiu-feng,SUN Ming,et al.Evaluation Theory and Methods and Military Application[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2013:7-9.
[9]李蓉.基于层次分析法的桥梁健康状态模糊综合评估方法的研究及其应用[D].长沙:湖南大学,2007.LI Rong.Research and Application of Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Bridge Health Status Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[D].Changsha:Hunan University,2007.
[10]吴立增.变压器状态评估方法的研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2005.WU Li-zeng.Research on Transformer Condition Evaluation Method[D].Baoding:North China Electric Power University,2005.
[11]李伟,李波峰,林挺宇,等.基于D-S证据理论的超速离心机健康状态评估方法[J].仪表技术与传感器,2011(4):97-99.LI Wei,LIU Bo-feng,LIN Ting-yu,et al.Health Assessment Methods of Ultracentrifuge Based on DempsterShafer Evidence Theory[J].Instrument Technique and Sensor,2011(4):97-99.
[12]贺金凤,徐松杰.不确定条件下的质量绩效测评方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(11):2013-2018.HE Jin-feng,XU Song-jie.Approach of Quality Performance Measurement and Assessment under Uncertainty[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2010,30(11):2013-2018.
[13]陈圣群,王应明.基于分类优化的离散证据推理[J].控制与决策,2016,31(1):30-36.CHEN Sheng-qun,WANG Ying-ming.Discrete Evidence Based on Grouping Optimization[J].Control and Decision,2016,31(1):30-36.
[14]尹德进,王宏力.不确定信息下基于证据推理的武器系统戒备率评估方法[J].战术导弹技术,2011(2):62-67.YIN De-jin,WANG Hong-li.An Evidential Reasoning Approach for Alert Rate Assessment of Missile Weapon System Under Uncertainty[J].Tactical Missile Technology,2011(2):62-67.
[15]YANG Jian-bo,XU Dong-ling.On the Evidential Reasoning Algorithm for Multiple Attribute Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics Part A:Systems and Humans,2002,32(3):289-304.
[16]王亮,吕卫民,滕克难.基于测试数据的长期贮存装备实时健康状态评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2013,35(6):1212-1217.WANG Liang,LWei-min,TENG Ke-nan.Real-Time Health Condition Assessment of Long-Term Storage Equipment Based on Testing Data[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2013,35(6):1212-1217.
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