南支槽影响下西藏高原南部3次暴雪天气特征分析
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摘要
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和常规观测资料,对2013年1—2月西藏高原南部3次暴雪天气的环流形势、动力、水汽条件等进行诊断对比分析。结果表明:3次暴雪天气中高纬度均以经向型环流形势为主,从长波槽脊配置可分为长波槽型和横槽型两大类;西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏强、伊朗高压东北发展对南支槽加深和缓慢东移起到关键作用。南支槽区560 dagpm线在30°N以南,并东移至70°E附近或以东时西藏高原南部开始出现暴雪天气;暴雪区附近涡度场变化反映了南支槽强度特征,中高层强辐散对南支槽发展起到重要作用;水汽主要源于阿拉伯海,孟加拉湾水汽对东部降雪起到补充作用,南支槽前高空西南急流对水汽输送起关键作用,同时喜马拉雅山脉的大地形抬升,有利于上升运动和水汽凝结成云;水汽通量、水汽通量散度等变化及中心的移动方向,对降雪的强度、落区和时段具有较好的预报指示意义。
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and conventional observation data,this paper analyzes the circulation situation,dynamic and thermodynamic conditions of the three snowstorms in southwest of the Tibetan Plateau in 2013.The results show that,over the middle and high latitudes,there existed radial circulation situation.According to the ridge and trough positions,they can be divided into the long-wave trough and the horizontal trough.The Western Pacific subtropical high is by west and stronger,and Iran high developing to the northeast slowly plays a key role for the southern branch trough to deepen and move eastward.When the 560 dagpm line of southern branch trough area is south to 30°N,and moves eastward to 70°E near or to the east at the southern part of the Tibet Plateau,snowstorm begins to appear.The vorticity change in the vicinity of snowstorm area reflects the strength characteristics of the south branch trough.The vertical evolution of divergence field in mid-high levels plays an important role in the south branch trough development.Water vapor mainly comes from the Arabia Sea,and the water vapor in the Bay of Bengal plays a complementary role in the eastern snowfall.The southwest upper-level jet plays a key role in water vapor transport.At the same time,the Himalaya Mountain terrain uplift is conducive to the ascending motion and water vapor condensation.Water vapor flux, vapor flux divergence value changes and the center moving direction have better forecasting significances to the forecasting of snowfall intensity,falling area and time.
Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and conventional observation data,this paper analyzes the circulation situation,dynamic and thermodynamic conditions of the three snowstorms in southwest of the Tibetan Plateau in 2013.The results show that,over the middle and high latitudes,there existed radial circulation situation.According to the ridge and trough positions,they can be divided into the long-wave trough and the horizontal trough.The Western Pacific subtropical high is by west and stronger,and Iran high developing to the northeast slowly plays a key role for the southern branch trough to deepen and move eastward.When the 560 dagpm line of southern branch trough area is south to 30°N,and moves eastward to 70°E near or to the east at the southern part of the Tibet Plateau,snowstorm begins to appear.The vorticity change in the vicinity of snowstorm area reflects the strength characteristics of the south branch trough.The vertical evolution of divergence field in mid-high levels plays an important role in the south branch trough development.Water vapor mainly comes from the Arabia Sea,and the water vapor in the Bay of Bengal plays a complementary role in the eastern snowfall.The southwest upper-level jet plays a key role in water vapor transport.At the same time,the Himalaya Mountain terrain uplift is conducive to the ascending motion and water vapor condensation.Water vapor flux, vapor flux divergence value changes and the center moving direction have better forecasting significances to the forecasting of snowfall intensity,falling area and time.
引文
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蒋大凯,闵锦忠,乔小湜,2014.一次东北南部特大暴雪的动力机制分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):605-612.Jiang D K,Min J Z,Qiao X S,2014.The dynamical mechanism analysis of an extraordinary snowstorm over the south of Northeast[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):605-612(in Chinese).
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李娟,李跃清,蒋兴文,等,2016.青藏高原东南部复杂地形区不同天气状况下陆气能量交换特征分析[J].大气科学,40(4):777-791.Li J,Li Y Q,Jiang X W,et al,2016.Characteristics of landatmosphere energy exchanges over complex terrain area of southeastern Tibetan Plateau under different synoptic conditions[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(4):777-791(in Chinese).
林志强,假拉,薛改萍,等,2014.1980—2010年西藏高原大到暴雪的时空分布和环流特征[J].高原气象,33(4):900-906.Lin Z Q,Jia L,Xue G P,et al,2014.Spatial-temporal distribution and general circulation of heavy snow over Tibet Plateau in 1980-2000[J].Plateau Meteor,33(4):900-906(in Chinese).
林志强,2016.南支槽对西南高原地区冬半年日降水的影响[J].高原气象,35(6):1456-1463.Lin Z Q,2016.Influence of the southern branch trough on Plateau of southwestern China daily precipitation in wintertime[J].Plateau Meteor,35(6):1456-1463(in Chinese).
柳龙生,李英,赵毅勇,2015.孟加拉湾风暴费林(1302)对藏南一次暴雪过程的影响分析[J].气象,41(9):1079-1085.Liu L S,Li Y,Zhao Y Y,2015.Impact of storm Phailin(1302)over the Bay of Bengal on one snowstorm process in southern Tibetan Plateau[J].Meteor Mon,41(9):1079-1085(in Chinese).
孟雪峰,孙永刚,姜艳丰,2012.内蒙古东北部一次致灾大到暴雪天气分析[J].气象,38(7):877-883.Meng X F,Sun Y G Jiang Y F,2012.Weather analysis on a disastrous heavy snow in northeast of Inner Mongolia on November 20,2010[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):877-883(in Chinese).
孙欣,蔡芗宁,陈传雷,等,2011.“070304”东北特大暴雪的分析[J].气象,37(7):863-870.Sun X,Cai X N,Chen C L,et al,2011.Analysis of the 4 March 2007 heavy snowstorm in Northeast China[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):863-870(in Chinese).
索渺清,丁一汇,2009.冬半年副热带西风南支槽结构和演变特征研究[J].大气科学,33(3):425-442.Suo M Q,Ding Y H,2009.The structures and evolutions of the wintertime southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(3):425-442(in Chinese).
索渺清,丁一汇,2014.南支槽与孟加拉湾风暴结合对一次高原暴雪过程的影响[J].气象,40(9):1033-1047.Suo M Q,Ding Y H,2014.A case study on the effect of southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies combined with storm over the Bay of Bengal on Plateau snowstorm[J].Meteor Mon,40(9):1033-1047(in Chinese).
杨晓霞,吴炜,万明波,等,2012.山东省两次暴雪天气的对比分析[J].气象,38(7):868-876.Yang X X,Wu W,Wan M B,et al,2012.A comparative analysis of two snowstorms in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):868-876(in Chinese).
姚蓉,叶成志,田莹,等,2012.2011年初湖南暴雪过程的成因和数值模拟分析[J].气象,38(7):848-857.Yao R,Ye C Z,Tian Y,et al,2012.The numerical simulation analysis and causes of snowstorm occurring in Hunan Province,early 2011[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):848-857(in Chinese).
张腾飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,等,2007.2000年以来云南4次强降雪过程的对比分析[J].应用气象学报,18(1):64-72.Zhang T F,Lu Y B,Zhang J,et al,2007.Contrast analysis of 4 heavy snow events in Yunnan since 2000[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,18(1):64-72(in Chinese).
张永莉,范广洲,朱克云,等,2016.春季南支槽的年代际变化及其与降水、大气环流的关系[J].高原气象,35(4):934-945.Zhang Y L,Fan G Z,Zhu K Y,et al,2016.Interdecadal variation of spring time southern branch trough and its relationship with precipitation and atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor,35(4):934-945(in Chinese).
Wang J,Zhang M J,Wang S J,et al,2016.Decrease in snowfall/rainfall ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2013[J].J Geogr Sci,26(9):1277-1288.
除多,洛桑曲珍,林志强,等,2018.近30年青藏高原雪深时空变化特征分析[J].气象,44(2):233-243.Chu D,Luosang Q Z,Lin Z Q,et al,2018.Spatio-temporal variation of snow depth on Tibetan Plateau over the last 30 years[J].Meteor Mon,44(2):233-243(in Chinese).
段旭,陶云,许美玲,等,2012.西风带南支槽对云南天气的影响[J].高原气象,31(4):1059-1065.Duan X,Tao Y,Xu M L,et al,2012.Influence of south branch trough of westerlies on weather of Yunnan Province[J].Plateau Meteor,31(4):1059-1065(in Chinese).
郭荣芬,高安生,杨素雨,2010.低纬高原两次冬季南支槽强降水的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,33(1):82-88.Guo R F,Gao A S,Yang S Y,2010.Comparison analysis of two heavy rain processes on the plateau at low latitude caused by the southern branch trough in winter[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(1):82-88(in Chinese).
侯瑞钦,张迎新,范俊红,等,2011.2009年深秋河北省特大暴雪天气成因分析[J].气象,37(11):1352-1359.Hou R Q,Zhang Y X,Fan J H,et al,2011.Diagnoses of heavy snowstorm in Hebei Province in late autumn of 2009[J].Meteor Mon,37(11):1352-1359(in Chinese).
黄晓清,唐叔乙,次旺顿珠,2018.气候变暖背景下西藏高原雪灾变化及其与大气环流的关系[J].高原气象,37(2):325-332.Huang X Q,Tang S Y,Ciwang D Z,2018.Variation of the snow disasters under global warming and its relationship with general circulation over Tibetan Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteor,37(2):325-332(in Chinese).
蒋大凯,闵锦忠,乔小湜,2014.一次东北南部特大暴雪的动力机制分析[J].大气科学学报,37(5):605-612.Jiang D K,Min J Z,Qiao X S,2014.The dynamical mechanism analysis of an extraordinary snowstorm over the south of Northeast[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):605-612(in Chinese).
康志明,罗金秀,郭文华,等,2007.2005年10月西藏高原特大暴雪成因分析[J].气象,33(8):60-67.Kang Z M,Luo J X,Guo W H,et al,2007.Causality analysis of snowstorm in Xizang Plateau in autumn of 2005[J].Meteor Mon,33(8):60-67(in Chinese).
李娟,李跃清,蒋兴文,等,2016.青藏高原东南部复杂地形区不同天气状况下陆气能量交换特征分析[J].大气科学,40(4):777-791.Li J,Li Y Q,Jiang X W,et al,2016.Characteristics of landatmosphere energy exchanges over complex terrain area of southeastern Tibetan Plateau under different synoptic conditions[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(4):777-791(in Chinese).
林志强,假拉,薛改萍,等,2014.1980—2010年西藏高原大到暴雪的时空分布和环流特征[J].高原气象,33(4):900-906.Lin Z Q,Jia L,Xue G P,et al,2014.Spatial-temporal distribution and general circulation of heavy snow over Tibet Plateau in 1980-2000[J].Plateau Meteor,33(4):900-906(in Chinese).
林志强,2016.南支槽对西南高原地区冬半年日降水的影响[J].高原气象,35(6):1456-1463.Lin Z Q,2016.Influence of the southern branch trough on Plateau of southwestern China daily precipitation in wintertime[J].Plateau Meteor,35(6):1456-1463(in Chinese).
柳龙生,李英,赵毅勇,2015.孟加拉湾风暴费林(1302)对藏南一次暴雪过程的影响分析[J].气象,41(9):1079-1085.Liu L S,Li Y,Zhao Y Y,2015.Impact of storm Phailin(1302)over the Bay of Bengal on one snowstorm process in southern Tibetan Plateau[J].Meteor Mon,41(9):1079-1085(in Chinese).
孟雪峰,孙永刚,姜艳丰,2012.内蒙古东北部一次致灾大到暴雪天气分析[J].气象,38(7):877-883.Meng X F,Sun Y G Jiang Y F,2012.Weather analysis on a disastrous heavy snow in northeast of Inner Mongolia on November 20,2010[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):877-883(in Chinese).
孙欣,蔡芗宁,陈传雷,等,2011.“070304”东北特大暴雪的分析[J].气象,37(7):863-870.Sun X,Cai X N,Chen C L,et al,2011.Analysis of the 4 March 2007 heavy snowstorm in Northeast China[J].Meteor Mon,37(7):863-870(in Chinese).
索渺清,丁一汇,2009.冬半年副热带西风南支槽结构和演变特征研究[J].大气科学,33(3):425-442.Suo M Q,Ding Y H,2009.The structures and evolutions of the wintertime southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(3):425-442(in Chinese).
索渺清,丁一汇,2014.南支槽与孟加拉湾风暴结合对一次高原暴雪过程的影响[J].气象,40(9):1033-1047.Suo M Q,Ding Y H,2014.A case study on the effect of southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies combined with storm over the Bay of Bengal on Plateau snowstorm[J].Meteor Mon,40(9):1033-1047(in Chinese).
杨晓霞,吴炜,万明波,等,2012.山东省两次暴雪天气的对比分析[J].气象,38(7):868-876.Yang X X,Wu W,Wan M B,et al,2012.A comparative analysis of two snowstorms in Shandong Province[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):868-876(in Chinese).
姚蓉,叶成志,田莹,等,2012.2011年初湖南暴雪过程的成因和数值模拟分析[J].气象,38(7):848-857.Yao R,Ye C Z,Tian Y,et al,2012.The numerical simulation analysis and causes of snowstorm occurring in Hunan Province,early 2011[J].Meteor Mon,38(7):848-857(in Chinese).
张腾飞,鲁亚斌,张杰,等,2007.2000年以来云南4次强降雪过程的对比分析[J].应用气象学报,18(1):64-72.Zhang T F,Lu Y B,Zhang J,et al,2007.Contrast analysis of 4 heavy snow events in Yunnan since 2000[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,18(1):64-72(in Chinese).
张永莉,范广洲,朱克云,等,2016.春季南支槽的年代际变化及其与降水、大气环流的关系[J].高原气象,35(4):934-945.Zhang Y L,Fan G Z,Zhu K Y,et al,2016.Interdecadal variation of spring time southern branch trough and its relationship with precipitation and atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor,35(4):934-945(in Chinese).
Wang J,Zhang M J,Wang S J,et al,2016.Decrease in snowfall/rainfall ratio in the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2013[J].J Geogr Sci,26(9):1277-1288.