1960–2012年青藏高原极端气候时空动态与变异研究（英文）
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摘要
极端气候事件是全球长期气候变化研究中的重要内容。作为世界第三极,青藏高原对气候变化和变异的响应非常敏感。本文基于青藏高原98个气象站(大部分位于海拔4000 m以上)的日值观测数据,包括日气温最大值、最小值和日降水量,计算了1960–2012年间的极端气候指数并分析了其时空变化格局。首先,根据国际气象组织的标准计算了15个核心气温极端指数和8个核心降水极端指数,然后从高原整体、生态区和台站尺度分析了极端指数的时空变化趋势。气温极端指数表明青藏高原整体表现为显著升温趋势,高原的冷日和冷夜时间序列呈下降趋势,每10年分别减少8.9天和17.3天。相应的暖日和暧夜增长趋势分别为7.6 d (10 yr)-1和12.5 d (10 yr)-1。生长季长度以5.3 d (10 yr)-1的速率增加。在站点尺度,大部分台站的气温极端指数存在显著趋势,但是空间分异性显著。生态区的气温极端指数与高原整体的发展趋势一致。高原整体的降水极端指数波动性较大,增长趋势微弱。年总降水增长趋势为2.8mm(10yr)-1。时序变化点分析表明极端气候指数的突变主要发生在1980和1990年代。赫斯特指数表明未来各种极端气候指数都将保持研究时间段内的发展趋势。另外,探索了极端气候指数与海拔高度的关系,发现各指数的变化趋势与高程并无显著相关性。总体上高原升温呈现显著的不对称特征,即气温冷指数的上升幅度明显大于暖指数的上升幅度,日最低气温的增长趋势也很显著。大多数降水极端指数表现为微弱的增加趋势(不显著)。本研究综合分析了青藏高原极端气候的时空分布格局,可以为高原气候变化研究提供参考。
Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth's Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices(CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960–2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices(TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices(PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of-8.9 d(10 yr)-1(days per decade) and-17.3 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d(10 yr)-1 and 12.5 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d(10 yr)-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980 s and 1990 s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm(10 yr)-1(not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.
Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth's Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices(CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960–2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices(TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices(PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of-8.9 d(10 yr)-1(days per decade) and-17.3 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d(10 yr)-1 and 12.5 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d(10 yr)-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980 s and 1990 s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm(10 yr)-1(not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.
引文
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An W,Hou S,Zhang W,et al.2016.Significant recent warming over the northern Tibetan Plateau from ice coreδ18 o records.Climate of the Past,11(4):2701-2728.
Brunner L,Hegerl G C,Steiner A K.2017.Connecting atmospheric blocking to european temperature extremes in spring.Journal of Climate,30(2):585-594.
China Meteorological Administration.2003.Surface Weather Observation Standards.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,54-59.
China Meteorological Administration.2005.Compilation of 30-year Conventional Surface Climate Data and Their Statistics(QX/T22-2004).Beijing:Standards Press of China.(in Chinese)
Dong B,Sutton R T,Shaffrey L.2017.Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over western Europe.Climate Dynamics,48(5-6):1537-1554.
Duan J,Li L,Fang Y.2015.Seasonal spatial heterogeneity of warming rates on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 30 years.Scientific Reports,5(1):11725.
Flato G,Marotzke J,Abiodun B,et al.2013.Evaluation of Climate Models.In:Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group i to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,741-866.
Foley J A,DeFries R,Asner G P,et al.2005.Global consequences of landuse.Science,309(5734):570-574.
Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,et al.2008.Global change and the ecology of cities.Science,319(5864):756-760.
Guo D,Wang H.2012.The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes.International Journal of Climatology,32(12):1775-1781.
Hamed K H.2008.Trend detection in hydrologic data:The mann-kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis.Journal of Hydrology,349(3-4):350-363.
Herold N,Behrangi A,Alexander L V.2017.Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,122(2):668-681.
Hurst H E.1951.Long term storage capacity of reservoirs.Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers,116:776-808.
Jun D.2001.Change of temperature in Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2000.Acta Geographica Sinica,56(33):232-239.(in Chinese)
Katz R W,Brown B G.1992.Extreme events in a changing climate:Variability is more important than averages.Climatic Change,21(3):289-302.
Konisky D M,Hughes L,Kaylor C H.2016.Extreme weather events and climate change concern.Climatic Change,134(4):533-547.
Li Q,Dong W,Li W,et al.2010.Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century.Chinese Science Bulletin,55(19):1974-1982.
Li Q,Zhang L,Xu W,et al.2017.Comparisons of time series of annual mean surface air temperature for China since the 1900s:Observations,model simulations,and extended reanalysis.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,98(4):699-711.
Li Z,Yan Z.2009.Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960-2008.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(4):237-243.
Lin Z,Zhao X.1996.Spatial characteristics of changes in temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,39(4):442-448.
Liu J,Liu M,Zhuang D,et al.2003.Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995-2000.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,46(4):373-384.
Liu J,Zhang Z,Xu X,et al.2010.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century.Journal of Geographical Sciences,20(4):483-494.
Liu X,Chen B.2000.Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades.International Journal of Climatology,20(14):1729-1742.
Liu X,Yin Z Y,Shao X,et al.2006.Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum,extreme temperature events,and growing season length over the eastern and central tibetan plateau during1961-2003.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111(D19).
Lu N,Trenberth K E,Qin J,et al.2015.Detecting long-term trends in precipitable water over the Tibetan Plateau by synthesis of station and modis observations.Journal of Climate,28(4):1707-1722.
Luo S,Fang X,Lyu S,et al.2016.Frozen ground temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau three river source region from 1980 to 2014.Climate Research,67(3):241-255.
O’Connell P,Koutsoyiannis D,Lins H,et al.2016.The scientific legacy of harold edwin hurst(1880-1978).Hydrological Sciences Journal,61(9):1571-1590.
Pettitt A.1979.A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem.Applied Statistics,28(2):126-135.
Piao S,Fang J,He J.2006.Variations in vegetation net primary production in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,from 1982 to 1999.Climatic Change,74(1-3):253-267.
Reid P C,Hari R E,Beaugrand G,et al.2016.Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.Global Change Biology,22(2):682-703.
Shen M,Piao S,Chen X,et al.2016.Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green‐update and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.Global Change Biology,22(9):3057-3066.
Shen M,Piao S,Jeong S J,et al.2015.Evaporative cooling over the Tibetan Plateau induced by vegetation growth.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,112(30):9299-9304.
Song C,Pei T,Zhou C.2014.The role of changing multiscale temperature variability in extreme temperature events on the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2008.International journal of climatology,34(14):3683-3701.
Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G,et al.2013.Contribution of Working Group i to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis2013.
Tan J,Piao S,Chen A,et al.2015.Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the northern hemisphere.Global Change Biology,21(1):377-387.
Tangang F,Juneng L,Aldrian E.2017.Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over indonesia.International Journal of Climatology,37(4):1979-1997.
Tao F,Xiao D,Zhang S,et al.2017.Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the huang-huai-hai plain of China in the past three decades.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,239:1-14.
Tegos A,Tyralis H,Koutsoyiannis D,et al.2017.An R function for the estimation of trend significance under the scaling hypothesis-application in pet parametric annual time series.Open Water Journal,4(1):6.
Ummenhofer C C,Meehl G A.2017.Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance:A review.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,372(1723):20160135.
Wang B,Bao Q,Hoskins B,et al.2008.Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in east Asia.Geophysical Research Letters,35(1L14702).doi:10.1029/2008GL034330
Weron R.2002.Estimating long-range dependence:Finite sample properties and confidence intervals.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,312(1-2):285-299.
Wu S,Yang Q,Zheng D.2003.Delineation of eco-geographic regional system of China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,13(3):309-315.
Xiao C,Wu P,Zhang L,et al.2016.Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China.Scientific reports,6:38506.
Yang B,He M,Shishov V,et al.2017.New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,114(27):6966-6971.
Yang K,Wu H,Qin J,et al.2014.Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle:A review.Global and Planetary Change,112:79-91.
Yang K,Ye B,Zhou D,et al.2011.Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change,109(3-4):517-534.
You Q,Kang S,Aguilar E,et al.2008.Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,113(D7).doi:10.1029/2007JD009389
You Q,Kang S,Pepin N,et al.2008.Relationship between trends in temperature extremes and elevation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau,1961-2005.Geophysical Research Letters,35(4).doi:10.1029/2007gl032669
Zhang G,Zhang Y,Dong J,et al.2013.Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,110(11):4309-4314.
Zhang X L,Wang S J,Zhang J M,et al.2015.Temporal and spatial variability in precipitation trends in the southeast Tibetan Plateau during1961-2012.Climate of the Past Discussions,11(1):447-487.
Zhang X,Yang F.2004.Rclimdex(1.0)User Manual.Climate Research Branch Environment Canada,22.
Zhang Y,Li B,Zheng D.2014.Datasets of the boundary and area of the Tibetan Plateau.Global Change Research Data Publishing and Repository,doi:10.3974/geodb.2014.01.12.v1.(in Chinese)
Zhu Z,Piao S,Myneni R B,et al.2016.Greening of the earth and its drivers.Nature Climate Change,6(8):791-795.
Zwiers F W,Alexander L V,Hegerl G C,et al.2013.Climate Extremes:Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events.In Climate Science for Serving Society,Dordrecht:Springer,339-389.
Alexander L,Zhang X,Peterson T,et al.2006.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111(D05109).doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
An W,Hou S,Zhang W,et al.2016.Significant recent warming over the northern Tibetan Plateau from ice coreδ18 o records.Climate of the Past,11(4):2701-2728.
Brunner L,Hegerl G C,Steiner A K.2017.Connecting atmospheric blocking to european temperature extremes in spring.Journal of Climate,30(2):585-594.
China Meteorological Administration.2003.Surface Weather Observation Standards.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,54-59.
China Meteorological Administration.2005.Compilation of 30-year Conventional Surface Climate Data and Their Statistics(QX/T22-2004).Beijing:Standards Press of China.(in Chinese)
Dong B,Sutton R T,Shaffrey L.2017.Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over western Europe.Climate Dynamics,48(5-6):1537-1554.
Duan J,Li L,Fang Y.2015.Seasonal spatial heterogeneity of warming rates on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 30 years.Scientific Reports,5(1):11725.
Flato G,Marotzke J,Abiodun B,et al.2013.Evaluation of Climate Models.In:Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group i to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,741-866.
Foley J A,DeFries R,Asner G P,et al.2005.Global consequences of landuse.Science,309(5734):570-574.
Grimm N B,Faeth S H,Golubiewski N E,et al.2008.Global change and the ecology of cities.Science,319(5864):756-760.
Guo D,Wang H.2012.The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes.International Journal of Climatology,32(12):1775-1781.
Hamed K H.2008.Trend detection in hydrologic data:The mann-kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis.Journal of Hydrology,349(3-4):350-363.
Herold N,Behrangi A,Alexander L V.2017.Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,122(2):668-681.
Hurst H E.1951.Long term storage capacity of reservoirs.Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers,116:776-808.
Jun D.2001.Change of temperature in Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2000.Acta Geographica Sinica,56(33):232-239.(in Chinese)
Katz R W,Brown B G.1992.Extreme events in a changing climate:Variability is more important than averages.Climatic Change,21(3):289-302.
Konisky D M,Hughes L,Kaylor C H.2016.Extreme weather events and climate change concern.Climatic Change,134(4):533-547.
Li Q,Dong W,Li W,et al.2010.Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century.Chinese Science Bulletin,55(19):1974-1982.
Li Q,Zhang L,Xu W,et al.2017.Comparisons of time series of annual mean surface air temperature for China since the 1900s:Observations,model simulations,and extended reanalysis.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,98(4):699-711.
Li Z,Yan Z.2009.Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960-2008.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2(4):237-243.
Lin Z,Zhao X.1996.Spatial characteristics of changes in temperature and precipitation of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,39(4):442-448.
Liu J,Liu M,Zhuang D,et al.2003.Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995-2000.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,46(4):373-384.
Liu J,Zhang Z,Xu X,et al.2010.Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century.Journal of Geographical Sciences,20(4):483-494.
Liu X,Chen B.2000.Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades.International Journal of Climatology,20(14):1729-1742.
Liu X,Yin Z Y,Shao X,et al.2006.Temporal trends and variability of daily maximum and minimum,extreme temperature events,and growing season length over the eastern and central tibetan plateau during1961-2003.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,111(D19).
Lu N,Trenberth K E,Qin J,et al.2015.Detecting long-term trends in precipitable water over the Tibetan Plateau by synthesis of station and modis observations.Journal of Climate,28(4):1707-1722.
Luo S,Fang X,Lyu S,et al.2016.Frozen ground temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau three river source region from 1980 to 2014.Climate Research,67(3):241-255.
O’Connell P,Koutsoyiannis D,Lins H,et al.2016.The scientific legacy of harold edwin hurst(1880-1978).Hydrological Sciences Journal,61(9):1571-1590.
Pettitt A.1979.A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem.Applied Statistics,28(2):126-135.
Piao S,Fang J,He J.2006.Variations in vegetation net primary production in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,from 1982 to 1999.Climatic Change,74(1-3):253-267.
Reid P C,Hari R E,Beaugrand G,et al.2016.Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.Global Change Biology,22(2):682-703.
Shen M,Piao S,Chen X,et al.2016.Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green‐update and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.Global Change Biology,22(9):3057-3066.
Shen M,Piao S,Jeong S J,et al.2015.Evaporative cooling over the Tibetan Plateau induced by vegetation growth.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,112(30):9299-9304.
Song C,Pei T,Zhou C.2014.The role of changing multiscale temperature variability in extreme temperature events on the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1960-2008.International journal of climatology,34(14):3683-3701.
Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G,et al.2013.Contribution of Working Group i to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate Change 2013:the Physical Science Basis2013.
Tan J,Piao S,Chen A,et al.2015.Seasonally different response of photosynthetic activity to daytime and night-time warming in the northern hemisphere.Global Change Biology,21(1):377-387.
Tangang F,Juneng L,Aldrian E.2017.Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over indonesia.International Journal of Climatology,37(4):1979-1997.
Tao F,Xiao D,Zhang S,et al.2017.Wheat yield benefited from increases in minimum temperature in the huang-huai-hai plain of China in the past three decades.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,239:1-14.
Tegos A,Tyralis H,Koutsoyiannis D,et al.2017.An R function for the estimation of trend significance under the scaling hypothesis-application in pet parametric annual time series.Open Water Journal,4(1):6.
Ummenhofer C C,Meehl G A.2017.Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance:A review.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:Biological Sciences,372(1723):20160135.
Wang B,Bao Q,Hoskins B,et al.2008.Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in east Asia.Geophysical Research Letters,35(1L14702).doi:10.1029/2008GL034330
Weron R.2002.Estimating long-range dependence:Finite sample properties and confidence intervals.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,312(1-2):285-299.
Wu S,Yang Q,Zheng D.2003.Delineation of eco-geographic regional system of China.Journal of Geographical Sciences,13(3):309-315.
Xiao C,Wu P,Zhang L,et al.2016.Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China.Scientific reports,6:38506.
Yang B,He M,Shishov V,et al.2017.New perspective on spring vegetation phenology and global climate change based on Tibetan Plateau tree-ring data.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,114(27):6966-6971.
Yang K,Wu H,Qin J,et al.2014.Recent climate changes over the Tibetan Plateau and their impacts on energy and water cycle:A review.Global and Planetary Change,112:79-91.
Yang K,Ye B,Zhou D,et al.2011.Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau.Climatic Change,109(3-4):517-534.
You Q,Kang S,Aguilar E,et al.2008.Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,113(D7).doi:10.1029/2007JD009389
You Q,Kang S,Pepin N,et al.2008.Relationship between trends in temperature extremes and elevation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau,1961-2005.Geophysical Research Letters,35(4).doi:10.1029/2007gl032669
Zhang G,Zhang Y,Dong J,et al.2013.Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA,110(11):4309-4314.
Zhang X L,Wang S J,Zhang J M,et al.2015.Temporal and spatial variability in precipitation trends in the southeast Tibetan Plateau during1961-2012.Climate of the Past Discussions,11(1):447-487.
Zhang X,Yang F.2004.Rclimdex(1.0)User Manual.Climate Research Branch Environment Canada,22.
Zhang Y,Li B,Zheng D.2014.Datasets of the boundary and area of the Tibetan Plateau.Global Change Research Data Publishing and Repository,doi:10.3974/geodb.2014.01.12.v1.(in Chinese)
Zhu Z,Piao S,Myneni R B,et al.2016.Greening of the earth and its drivers.Nature Climate Change,6(8):791-795.
Zwiers F W,Alexander L V,Hegerl G C,et al.2013.Climate Extremes:Challenges in Estimating and Understanding Recent Changes in the Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Climate and Weather Events.In Climate Science for Serving Society,Dordrecht:Springer,339-389.
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