考虑气象因子的不确定性灌溉水资源优化配置
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摘要
基于不确定性区间作物水分生产函数,选取春小麦、玉米、棉花和白兰瓜这4种典型作物,建立不确定性条件下灌溉水资源优化配置模型,并将气象因子(蒸发蒸腾量和相对湿度)的不确定性引入其中,以反映气候变化对灌区配水的影响.结果表明,在石羊河流域民勤地区,玉米单方水经济效益较低,故其优化灌溉定额相比现状灌溉定额变化较大.棉花是单方水经济效益最大的作物,其次是白兰瓜,所以当可用水量短缺时,在确保粮食安全的前提下,为降低因灌溉缺水而带来的经济损失,要优先保证棉花和白兰瓜灌溉用水.引入气象因子的灌区水资源优化配置模型区间优化配水定额范围更广,反映出气象因子对灌区配水的影响.本研究验证了不确定性方法在实际应用的可行性,可为灌区水资源合理分配提供更可靠的科学依据.
Based on the interval crop water production functions under uncertainty,spring wheat,corn,cotton and honey dew melon were selected as study crops.Then the optimal allocation of water resources model in the Minqin irrigation region under uncertainty was established.Besides,to reflect the impact of climate change on irrigation water allocation,the uncertainty of meteorological factors(ET0 and RH) were also introduced in the model.The results show that the economic benefits per unit water of corn is low in the Minqin irrigation region and its optimal irrigation quota is larger than the current irrigation quota.Cotton has the biggest economic benefits per unit water in the Minqin irrigation region,followed by honey dew melon.In the case of limited available water and the premise of ensuring food security,the irrigation water for cotton and honey dew melon should be firstly ensured to reduce the economic loss.The model including meteorological factors has a wider range of interval solutions,which reflects the impact of meteorological factors on water allocation.This study verifies the feasibility of the uncertainty method in practical application and provides a more reliable scientific basis for the rational allocation of water resources in irrigation areas.
Based on the interval crop water production functions under uncertainty,spring wheat,corn,cotton and honey dew melon were selected as study crops.Then the optimal allocation of water resources model in the Minqin irrigation region under uncertainty was established.Besides,to reflect the impact of climate change on irrigation water allocation,the uncertainty of meteorological factors(ET0 and RH) were also introduced in the model.The results show that the economic benefits per unit water of corn is low in the Minqin irrigation region and its optimal irrigation quota is larger than the current irrigation quota.Cotton has the biggest economic benefits per unit water in the Minqin irrigation region,followed by honey dew melon.In the case of limited available water and the premise of ensuring food security,the irrigation water for cotton and honey dew melon should be firstly ensured to reduce the economic loss.The model including meteorological factors has a wider range of interval solutions,which reflects the impact of meteorological factors on water allocation.This study verifies the feasibility of the uncertainty method in practical application and provides a more reliable scientific basis for the rational allocation of water resources in irrigation areas.
引文
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[13]JIANG Y,XU X,HUANG Q,et al.Optimizing regional irrigation water use by integrating a two-level optimization model and an agro-hydrological model[J].Agricultural water management,2016,178:76-88.
[14]TANAKA H,LEE H.Interval regression analysis by quadratic programming approach[J].IEEE Transactions on fuzzy systems,2002,6(4):473-481.
[15]徐万林.基于水资源高效利用的农业种植结构优化[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.
[2]张妍,郭萍,张帆,等.基于评价的水资源优化模型适用性比较[J].排灌机械工程学报,2019,37(2):154-159.ZHANG Yan,GUO Ping,ZHANG Fan,et al.Applicability comparison of water resources optimization model based on effect evaluation[J].Journal of drainage and irrigation machinery engineering,2019,37(2):154-159.(in Chinese)
[3]刘红亮.灌区水资源优化配置与可持续发展评价研究[D].南京:河海大学,2002.
[4]于芷婧,尚松浩.华北轮作农田灌溉制度多目标优化模型及应用[J].水利学报,2016,47(9):1188-1196.YU Zhijing,SHAGN Songhao.Multi-objective optimization method for irrigation scheduling of crop rotation system and its application in North China[J].Journal of hydraulic engineering,2016,47(9):1188-1196.(in Chinese)
[5]蒋尚明.集对分析在水资源不确定性分析中的应用[D].合肥:合肥工业大学,2010.
[6]LI M,GUO P,YANG G Q,et al.IB-ICCMSP:An integrated irrigation water optimal allocation and planning model based on inventory theory under uncertainty[J].Water resources management,2014,28(1):241-260.
[7]HUANG Y,LI Y P,CHEN X,et al.Optimization of the irrigation water resources for agricultural sustainability in Tarim River Basin China[J].Agricultural water management,2012(107):74-85.
[8]SCHLENKER W,HANEMANN W M,FISHER A C.Water availability,degree days,and the potential impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California[J].Climatic change,2007,81(1):19-38.
[9]CHEN B,JING L,ZHANG B,et al.Wetland monitoring,characterization and modeling under changing climate in the Canadian Subarctic[J].Journal of environmental informatics,2015,18(2):55-64.
[10]HUO Z,DAI X,FENG S,et al.Effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in arid region of China[J].Journal of hydrology,2013,492:24-34.
[11]MA Z,KANG S,ZHANG L,et al.Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of northwest China[J].Journal of hydrology,2008,352(3/4):239-249.
[12]TONG F,GUO P.Simulation and optimization for crop water allocation based on crop water production functions and climate factor under uncertainty[J].Applied mathematical modelling,2013,37(14/15):7708-7716.
[13]JIANG Y,XU X,HUANG Q,et al.Optimizing regional irrigation water use by integrating a two-level optimization model and an agro-hydrological model[J].Agricultural water management,2016,178:76-88.
[14]TANAKA H,LEE H.Interval regression analysis by quadratic programming approach[J].IEEE Transactions on fuzzy systems,2002,6(4):473-481.
[15]徐万林.基于水资源高效利用的农业种植结构优化[D].杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2011.
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