1960—2017年沈阳地区春播期降水变化特征
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摘要
基于1960—2017年沈阳市5个气象观测站4—5月降水量资料,采用线性趋势法和累积距平分析了沈阳市春播期(4—5月)降水量演变特征,并分析首场透雨及最大连续无有效降水日数演变特征及对春播期降水量影响,对春播期降水量资源变化特征进行相关分析。结果表明:近58 a沈阳春播期降水量整体呈现弱的增加趋势,平均每10 a增加3. 1 mm,2004年开始降水量迅速增加,且波动性较大,降水量异常偏多或偏少年份较多,易诱发春旱春涝事件。春播期首场透雨出现日期平均每10 a偏晚0. 051 d,首场透雨日期偏晚,将导致春播期前期雨水条件不足,引起土壤干旱,不利于春播开展。最大连续无有效降水日数呈波动性增加趋势,平均每10 a增加0. 56 d,对4月降水量影响较大,虽然春播期降水资源总量增加,但存在降水资源时间分配不均的问题,且长时间无有效降水事件频发,将导致春播期干旱灾害事件发生风险加大,导致适播期延后。
Using linear inclination estimation and accumulative anomaly analysis methods,the temporal characteristic of precipitation during the spring sowing period and its relationship with the first soaking rain and the maximum continuous days without available precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the precipitation during the spring sowing period increased slowly with a rate of 3.1 mm/10 a in Shenyang from 1960 to 2017.The precipitation during the spring sowing period increased rapidly with larger fluctuations since 2004.The increase of abnormal precipitation years induced spring drought(or flood)events occurring frequently.The first soaking rain during the spring sowing period of Shenyang delayed with a rate of-0.051 d/10 a,which usually leads to the shortage of soil water during the spring sowing period and are unfavorable for spring sowing.The maximum continuous days without available precipitation increased with a rate of 0.56 d/10 a,which had significant impacts on precipitation in April.Although the total amount of precipitation during the spring sowing period had an increasing trend,its temporal distribution was uneven.Above all,the uneven distribution of precipitation and the frequently occurrence of continuous days without available precipitation will increase drought disaster risk during the spring sowing period and the sowing date may be delayed.
Using linear inclination estimation and accumulative anomaly analysis methods,the temporal characteristic of precipitation during the spring sowing period and its relationship with the first soaking rain and the maximum continuous days without available precipitation were analyzed.The results show that the precipitation during the spring sowing period increased slowly with a rate of 3.1 mm/10 a in Shenyang from 1960 to 2017.The precipitation during the spring sowing period increased rapidly with larger fluctuations since 2004.The increase of abnormal precipitation years induced spring drought(or flood)events occurring frequently.The first soaking rain during the spring sowing period of Shenyang delayed with a rate of-0.051 d/10 a,which usually leads to the shortage of soil water during the spring sowing period and are unfavorable for spring sowing.The maximum continuous days without available precipitation increased with a rate of 0.56 d/10 a,which had significant impacts on precipitation in April.Although the total amount of precipitation during the spring sowing period had an increasing trend,its temporal distribution was uneven.Above all,the uneven distribution of precipitation and the frequently occurrence of continuous days without available precipitation will increase drought disaster risk during the spring sowing period and the sowing date may be delayed.
引文
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[3]李燕,赛瀚,刘静,等.辽宁短时强降水气候特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(4):56-63.
[4]李辑,李雨鸿,胡春丽,等.辽西干旱区春播期土壤相对湿度动态预测模型研究[J].土壤通报,2014,45(4):830-834.
[5]高西宁,刘焕莉.辽宁省近50年来春旱评估分析[J].江苏农业科学,2011(1):380-383.
[6]孙凤华,吴志坚,杨素英.东北地区近50年来极端降水和干燥事件时空演变特征[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(7):779-784.
[7]汪宏宇,龚强.东北地区作物生长季降水异常特征分析[J].气象科技,2005,33(4):345-349,354.
[8]王波,李永生,王莹,等.黑龙江省主汛期降水气候特征及预测检验评估[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(4):52-58.
[9]胡春丽,李辑,王婉昭,等.辽宁省春播期降水的时空特征及其对土壤水分的影响[J].灾害学,2018,33(1):53-58,70.
[10]李辑,胡春丽,王艳,等.辽宁春播期第一场透雨的气候特征及其变化规律[J].气象与环境学报,2008,24(6):1-6.
[11]张强,王有民,姚佩珍.我国三北地区春季第一场透雨指标的确定[J].中国农业气象,2003,24(2):28-30,54.
[12]王婉昭,胡春丽,梁丰,等.辽宁省农业干旱频发区首场透雨气候特征[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(24):201-203,208.
[13]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB/T 32136-2015,农业干旱等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2016.
[14]隋月,黄晚华,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国南方地区季节性干旱特征与适应II.基于作物水分亏缺指数的越冬粮油作物干旱时空特征[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(9):2467-2476.
[15]姚玉璧,张存杰,邓振镛,等.气象、农业干旱指标综述[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(1):185-189,211.
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:106-110.
[17]慕臣英,徐全辉,张菁,等.1980-2014年沈阳地区日照时数变化特征及影响因素[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(2):89-94.
[18]黄嘉佑.第三讲气候状态变化趋势与突变分析[J].气象,1995,21(7):54-57.
[19]闫敏华,邓伟,陈泮.三江平原气候突变分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):661-667.
[20]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.