近20年世界油气新发现特征与勘探趋势展望
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摘要
对历年来世界油气新发现情况进行统计分析,有助于加深对上游勘探进展的认识与未来发展趋势的研判。基于统计分析、油气勘探等方法理论,梳理了近20年来全球9010个油气新发现情况,重点分析了近5年来油气新发现的储量规模、油气类型、分布领域、盆地类型、作业公司等特点。统计表明,过去20年油气发现总可采储量为6722×10~8bbl,其中可采储量大于1×10~8bbl的油气新发现为997个,占总发现储量的85%。2014年油价下跌以来世界油气新发现个数与规模大幅下降,天然气发现比例呈增大趋势。非洲是近年来油气新发现储量最多的大区,接下来依次为拉美、中亚—俄罗斯、东南亚、北美、中东、欧洲。过去5年油气新发现储量主要分布在被动大陆边缘盆地、裂谷盆地与前陆盆地中,被动大陆边缘盆地中油气新发现储量占总发现储量的70%,主要国际油公司与国家石油公司是新发现的主体。分析表明,随着勘探难度增加,陆地油气新发现越来越少,深水、超深水油气发现增加,新领域、新类型、新深度、老区新层系持续探索,天然气越来越重要。海上油气勘探将是未来重要发展趋势,中国油公司在深水区块勘探与充当作业者方面尚有待加强,未来要继续加强上游勘探投入,与国际大油公司开展合作对优质深水资产进行战略储备,并进一步加强海上勘探目标评价与优选研究,重视海上油气相关技术储备与创新。
Analysis and statistics of the world's oil and gas discoveries is helpful to understand upstream exploration progress and predict future exploration fields. By means of statistical analysis and petroleum exploration theory, 9010 oil and gas discoveries from 1996 to 2016 were analyzed, focused on the discoveries' reserve scale, types and distribution, basin types and operating companies in recent five years. The statistics show that the total recoverable reserve discovered from 1996 to 2016 is 6722 x10~8 barrels of oil equivalent, and 997 oil and gas discoveries have recoverable reserves of more than 100 million barrels each, accounting for 85% of the total recoverable reserves. Since 2014, the number and scale of new oil and gas discoveries have fallen dramatically, but natural gas discoveries are increasing. Africa boasts for the largest recoverable reserves form 2012-2016 in the world, followed by Latin America, central Asia-Russia, Southeast Asia, North America, Middle East and Europe. Oil and gas discoveries are mainly distributed in passive continental margin basins, rift basins and foreland basins, of which 70% were found in foreland basins by the main international oil companies and national oil companies. Our analysis indicates that newly discovered oil & gas resources become less and less in land, and more and more transfer to deep water and ultra-deep water environment; exploration in frontiers, new types, new depth and new sequence in matured basin is ongoing; and natural gas is becoming more and more important. Since the offshore oil & gas exploration will be an important development trend, Chinese oil companies should strengthen upstream exploration investment and cooperation with international companies to acquire appreciable deep-water assets, pay more attention to offshore exploration target assessment and selection, and advance technical reserve and innovation.
Analysis and statistics of the world's oil and gas discoveries is helpful to understand upstream exploration progress and predict future exploration fields. By means of statistical analysis and petroleum exploration theory, 9010 oil and gas discoveries from 1996 to 2016 were analyzed, focused on the discoveries' reserve scale, types and distribution, basin types and operating companies in recent five years. The statistics show that the total recoverable reserve discovered from 1996 to 2016 is 6722 x10~8 barrels of oil equivalent, and 997 oil and gas discoveries have recoverable reserves of more than 100 million barrels each, accounting for 85% of the total recoverable reserves. Since 2014, the number and scale of new oil and gas discoveries have fallen dramatically, but natural gas discoveries are increasing. Africa boasts for the largest recoverable reserves form 2012-2016 in the world, followed by Latin America, central Asia-Russia, Southeast Asia, North America, Middle East and Europe. Oil and gas discoveries are mainly distributed in passive continental margin basins, rift basins and foreland basins, of which 70% were found in foreland basins by the main international oil companies and national oil companies. Our analysis indicates that newly discovered oil & gas resources become less and less in land, and more and more transfer to deep water and ultra-deep water environment; exploration in frontiers, new types, new depth and new sequence in matured basin is ongoing; and natural gas is becoming more and more important. Since the offshore oil & gas exploration will be an important development trend, Chinese oil companies should strengthen upstream exploration investment and cooperation with international companies to acquire appreciable deep-water assets, pay more attention to offshore exploration target assessment and selection, and advance technical reserve and innovation.
引文
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