海上油气勘探目标全生命周期管理创新与实践
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摘要
面对油价持续低迷及南海西部日益复杂的油气地质条件,开展了"以价值勘探为导向"的勘探目标全生命周期的管理创新工作。研究建立了"多维度"勘探目标研究质控体系,3级质控、3级审查,井位研究质控内容涉及5组30项,实现勘探目标管理的标准化与制度化;提出了勘探目标全生命周期"大数据"闭环管理理念,通过建立勘探目标基础数据库、审查专家知识库,勘探开发数据模型一体化,实现勘探目标管理和决策流程的信息化;研究形成了勘探目标优选的综合储量法和专家评价"概率法"定量化管理模式;建立了勘探部署"最优解"管理决策模型,管理最优待钻目标组合,实现勘探部署的精益管理。以上管理创新在南海西部油田得到成功应用,有效地指导了勘探决策和部署,油气勘探成效大幅提高,近年在南海高温高压、深水领域共发现3000×108m3天然气储量,已具备建设万亿立方米大气区的条件。
Facing the continual downturn of international oil price and increasingly complex geological conditions in the western part of the South China Sea, CNOOC China Ltd-Zhanjiang Company made innovations in full life cycle management of exploration targets "oriented at exploration value". The research led to a "multiple-dimension" exploration target study QC system with quality control and examination at three levels. Quality control over well position study covers 30 items in five groups, bringing about standardization and institutionalization of exploration target management. The company also came up with the "big data" close-loop management conception on full life cycle of exploration targets. The data model of exploration and development is integrated by means of establishing the basis databank of exploration targets and the databank of expert examination, realizing exploration target management and informationization of decisionmaking process. Based on the research, the company developed the quantitative management models, such as the integrated reserve method for optimization of exploration targets and the "probability method" of expert assessment, and established the managerial decision-making model of the "best solution" to exploration deployment, thus bringing the best-to-bedrilled target assemblage and exploration deployment under management. The above-stated management innovations have been successfully used in the oilfields in the western South China Sea. They effectively benefited exploration decisions and deployment and dramatically improved oil and gas exploration efficiency. A total of 3000×108 m3 natural gas reserve has been found in the high-temperature and high-pressure deepwater area of the South China Sea in recent years, where the conditions were mature for construction of a large gas zone with the production capacity reaching one trillion cubic meters.
Facing the continual downturn of international oil price and increasingly complex geological conditions in the western part of the South China Sea, CNOOC China Ltd-Zhanjiang Company made innovations in full life cycle management of exploration targets "oriented at exploration value". The research led to a "multiple-dimension" exploration target study QC system with quality control and examination at three levels. Quality control over well position study covers 30 items in five groups, bringing about standardization and institutionalization of exploration target management. The company also came up with the "big data" close-loop management conception on full life cycle of exploration targets. The data model of exploration and development is integrated by means of establishing the basis databank of exploration targets and the databank of expert examination, realizing exploration target management and informationization of decisionmaking process. Based on the research, the company developed the quantitative management models, such as the integrated reserve method for optimization of exploration targets and the "probability method" of expert assessment, and established the managerial decision-making model of the "best solution" to exploration deployment, thus bringing the best-to-bedrilled target assemblage and exploration deployment under management. The above-stated management innovations have been successfully used in the oilfields in the western South China Sea. They effectively benefited exploration decisions and deployment and dramatically improved oil and gas exploration efficiency. A total of 3000×108 m3 natural gas reserve has been found in the high-temperature and high-pressure deepwater area of the South China Sea in recent years, where the conditions were mature for construction of a large gas zone with the production capacity reaching one trillion cubic meters.
引文
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[9]王川,彭苏萍.对油气圈闭勘探决策理论和方法的讨论[J].石油学报,2003,24(2):50-53.Wang Chuan,Peng Suping.Discussion about exploration decision-making theory and methods for oil and gas trap[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2003,24(2):50-53.
[10]蔡利学,闫相宾.新区预探圈闭优选的含油气概率-战略价值评价方法[J].大庆石油学院学报,2007,31(2):28-30.Cai Lixue,Yan Xiangbin.Optimization of traps to drill in frontier areas:the recovery probability of hydrocarbon-strategic value[J].Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute,2007,31(2):28-30.
[11]郭秋麟,米石云.油气勘探目标评价与决策分析[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:21-22,150-206.Guo Qiulin,Mi Shiyun.Assessment of petroleum exploration target and decisions[M].Bejing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:21-22,150-206.
[12]郭秋麟,米石云.勘探目标投资组合的优化模型及其应用[J].勘探管理,2005,(2):53-57.Guo Qiulin,Mi Shiyun.The portfolio optimization model of exploration objects and it’s application[J].Exploration Management,2005(2):53-57.
[13]郭秋麟,翟光明,石广仁.改进的区带综合评价模型与方法[J].石油学报,2004,25(2):7-11,18.Guo Qiulin,Zhai Guangming,Shi Guangren.Improved model and related methods for integrative evaluation of plays[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2004,25(2):7-11,18.
[14]谢寅符,陈和平,马中振,等.概率法油气储量评估及其与确定法的差异比较[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(1):117-122.Xie Yinfu,Chen Heping,Ma Zhongzhen,et al.Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J].Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2014,36(1):117-122.
[15]贾承造,杨树锋,张永峰,等.油气勘探风险分析与实物期权法经济评价[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:76-79.Jia Chengzao,Yang Shufeng,Zhang Yonfeng,et al.Risk analysis and economic valuation of oil and gas exploration project with real option method[M].Bejing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:76-79.
[2]谢玉洪.南海北部自营深水天然气勘探重大突破及其启示[J].天然气工业,2014,34(10):1-8.Xie Yuhong.A major breakthrough in deepwater natural gas exploration in a self-run oil/gas field in the northern South China Sea and its enlightenment[J].Natural Gas Industry,2014,34(10):1-8.
[3]谢玉洪,李绪深,徐新德,等.莺-琼盆地高温高压领域天然气成藏与勘探大突破[J].中国石油勘探,2016,21(4):19-29.Xie Yuhong,Li Xushen,Xu Xinde,et al.Gas accumulation and great exploration breakthroughs in HTHP formations within Yinggehai-Qiongdongnan Basins[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2016,21(4):19-29.
[4]吴木旺,杨红君,梁豪,等.基于临界流量的深水探井测试关键技术与实践--以琼东南盆地深水区为例[J].天然气工业,2015,35(10):65-70.Wu Muwang,Yang Hongjun,Liang Hao,et al.Key techniques and practices of critical flow based tests for deepwater exploration wells:A case study of deep water area in the Qiongdongnan Basin[J].Natural Gas Industry,2015,35(10):65-70.
[5]张强,吕福亮,贺晓苏,等.南海近5年油气勘探进展与启示[J].中国石油勘探,2018,23(1):54-61.Zhang Qiang,LüFuliang,He Xiaosu,et al.Progress and enlightenment of oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea in recent five years[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2018,23(1):54-61.
[6]王庭斌.正确的勘探战略决策是我国油气勘探持续发展的关键[J].石油与天然气地质,2007,28(5):557-563.Wang Tingbin.Correct strategies and decisions being critical for the sustainable development of oil/gas exploration in China[J].Oil&Gas Geology,2007,28(5):557-563.
[7]Peter R Rose.油气勘探项目的风险分析与管理[M].窦立荣,等译.北京:石油工业出版,2002:50-100.Rose P R.Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures[M].Dou Lirong,et al(Translator).Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2002:50-100.
[8]武守诚.油气资源评价导论--从“数字地球”到“数字油藏”[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2005:34-40.Wu Shoucheng.Introduction of petroleum resources assessment:From digtal earth to digtal reservoir[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2005:34-40.
[9]王川,彭苏萍.对油气圈闭勘探决策理论和方法的讨论[J].石油学报,2003,24(2):50-53.Wang Chuan,Peng Suping.Discussion about exploration decision-making theory and methods for oil and gas trap[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2003,24(2):50-53.
[10]蔡利学,闫相宾.新区预探圈闭优选的含油气概率-战略价值评价方法[J].大庆石油学院学报,2007,31(2):28-30.Cai Lixue,Yan Xiangbin.Optimization of traps to drill in frontier areas:the recovery probability of hydrocarbon-strategic value[J].Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute,2007,31(2):28-30.
[11]郭秋麟,米石云.油气勘探目标评价与决策分析[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:21-22,150-206.Guo Qiulin,Mi Shiyun.Assessment of petroleum exploration target and decisions[M].Bejing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:21-22,150-206.
[12]郭秋麟,米石云.勘探目标投资组合的优化模型及其应用[J].勘探管理,2005,(2):53-57.Guo Qiulin,Mi Shiyun.The portfolio optimization model of exploration objects and it’s application[J].Exploration Management,2005(2):53-57.
[13]郭秋麟,翟光明,石广仁.改进的区带综合评价模型与方法[J].石油学报,2004,25(2):7-11,18.Guo Qiulin,Zhai Guangming,Shi Guangren.Improved model and related methods for integrative evaluation of plays[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2004,25(2):7-11,18.
[14]谢寅符,陈和平,马中振,等.概率法油气储量评估及其与确定法的差异比较[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(1):117-122.Xie Yinfu,Chen Heping,Ma Zhongzhen,et al.Probabilistic estimation of reserves and difference between probabilistic and determine methods[J].Petroleum Geology&Experiment,2014,36(1):117-122.
[15]贾承造,杨树锋,张永峰,等.油气勘探风险分析与实物期权法经济评价[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004:76-79.Jia Chengzao,Yang Shufeng,Zhang Yonfeng,et al.Risk analysis and economic valuation of oil and gas exploration project with real option method[M].Bejing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004:76-79.