基于东亚冬季风指数的安徽省冬季霾预测研究
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摘要
东亚冬季风强度与中国中东部冬季霾日数的变化在年际尺度上密切相关,这为霾的短期气候预测提供了可能的物理因子。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和安徽省1980-2016年气象观测数据,采用统计分析方法研究安徽省1月霾日数与同期不同东亚季风指数的关系,确定了安徽省不同区域冬季霾的主要季风指数预测因子,建立安徽省冬季霾的月尺度预测模型,并进行了验证。结果表明:(1)1月气候霾日数与6类东亚冬季风指数均呈反相关关系,其中淮河以北、江淮之间两个区东亚大槽强度指数与气候霾日数的相关系数在各项指数中最高,沿江江南为西伯利亚高压强度指数与气候霾日数的相关系数在各项指数中最高。(2)不同分区建立的1月气候霾日数的预测模型均通过了α=0. 01的显著性水平检,验证结果表明,霾日数预测等级与实况等级基本一致,各区均未出现预测错误的情况,表明模型具有较好的预测表现。(3)在安徽省冬季霾实际预测业务中,相比NCEPCFS2模式输出的环流预报场,ECMWFSYSTEM4模式输出环流预报场的预测效果更好。
Interannual variation in the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) is closely related to that in winter haze days in the middle and eastern China, providing a possible physical factor for short-term climate prediction of haze days. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the meteorological observation data of Anhui Province from 1980 to 2016, the statistical analysis method is used to study the relationship between the number of haze days in Anhui Province and six different EAWM indices(EAWMI) in January, and the main EAWMI for winter haze days in different regions of Anhui Province are extracted, and then the monthly predictive model of winter haze days in Anhui Province is established and verified. The results show that:(1) The number of climatic haze days in January is negatively related to the six EAWMI. For both the northern part of the Huaihe River and regions between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River, the correlation coefficient between the East Asia large trough intensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest. For along and to the south of the Yangtze River, the correlation coefficient between the Siberia high-intensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest.(2) The prediction models for the number of haze days are established in three different regions,and all of them have passed the significance test with a = 0. 01 level. The verification results show that the predicted haze days are very similar with actual situations, and no predictive errors appear in three regions,which indicates that all the prediction models present a good predictive performance.(3) In the predictive work on winter haze days in Anhui Province, it is better to use the output by the ECMWF SYSTEM4 model than that by NCEP CFS2.
Interannual variation in the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM) is closely related to that in winter haze days in the middle and eastern China, providing a possible physical factor for short-term climate prediction of haze days. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the meteorological observation data of Anhui Province from 1980 to 2016, the statistical analysis method is used to study the relationship between the number of haze days in Anhui Province and six different EAWM indices(EAWMI) in January, and the main EAWMI for winter haze days in different regions of Anhui Province are extracted, and then the monthly predictive model of winter haze days in Anhui Province is established and verified. The results show that:(1) The number of climatic haze days in January is negatively related to the six EAWMI. For both the northern part of the Huaihe River and regions between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River, the correlation coefficient between the East Asia large trough intensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest. For along and to the south of the Yangtze River, the correlation coefficient between the Siberia high-intensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest.(2) The prediction models for the number of haze days are established in three different regions,and all of them have passed the significance test with a = 0. 01 level. The verification results show that the predicted haze days are very similar with actual situations, and no predictive errors appear in three regions,which indicates that all the prediction models present a good predictive performance.(3) In the predictive work on winter haze days in Anhui Province, it is better to use the output by the ECMWF SYSTEM4 model than that by NCEP CFS2.
引文
邓学良,石春娥,姚晨,等,2015.安徽霾日重建和时空特征分析[J].高原气象,34(4):1158-1166. Deng X L,Shi C E,Yao C,et al,2015. Research of hazes reconstruction and their features in Anhui Province[J]. Plateau Meteor, 34(4):1158-1166(in Chinese).
丁一汇,柳艳菊,2014.近50年我国雾和霾的长期变化特征及其与大气湿度的关系[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):37-48. Ding Y H,Liu Y J,2014. Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J]. Sci China:Earth Sci, 44(1):37-48(in Chinese).
樊高峰,任律,毛裕定,2017.基于人工与自动观测对比分析的霾日重建[J].中国环境科学,37(4):1254-1261. Fan G F,Ren L,Mao Y D,2017. Reconstruction of haze day database based on the comparison between manual and automatic observations[J].China Environ Sci,37(4):1254-1261(in Chinese).
符传博,丹利,2014.重污染下我国中东部地区1960-2010年霾日数的时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):219-226, Fu C B,Dan L,2014. Spatiotemporal characteristics of haze days under heavy pollution over central and eastern China during 1960-2010[J].Clima Environ Res, 19(2):219-226(in Chinese).
高歌,2008. 1961-2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析[J].地理学报,63(7):761-768. Gao G.,2008. The climatic characteristics and change of haze days over China during 1961-2005[J]. Acta Geographica Sin,63(7):761-768(in Chinese).
龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武,2002.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象,21(1):8-14. Gong D Y,Zhu J H,Wang S W,2002. The influence of Siberian high on large-scale climate over continental Asia[J]. Plateau Meteor, 21(1):8-14(in Chinese).
郭其蕴,1983.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,38(3):207-217. Guo Q Y,1983. The summer monsoon intensity index in East Asia and its variation[J]. Acta Geographica Sin,38(3):207-217(in Chinese).
郭其蕴,1994.东亚冬季风的变化与中国气温异常的关系[J].应用气象学报,5(2):218-225. Guo Q Y,1994. Relationship between the variations of East Asian winter monsoon and temperature anomalies China[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 5(2):218-225(in Chinese).
贺圣平,王会军,2012.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,36(3):523-538. He S P,Wang H J,2012. An integrated East Asian winter monsoon index and its interannual variability[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 36(3):523-538(in Chinese).
刘实,朱艳峰,孙力,等,2012.东亚冬季风指数:QX/T 144-2011[S].北京:气象出版社:9. Liu S,Zhu Y F,Sun L,et al,2012. Index of East Asia Winter Monsoon:QX/T 144-2011[S]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:9(in Chinese).
齐冰,刘寿东,杜荣光,等,2012.杭州地区气候环境要素对霾天气影响特征分析[J].气象,38(10):1225-1231. Qi B.Liu S D,Du R G,et al,2012. The characteristic analysis of climatic and environmental factors on the haze weather in Hangzhou[J]. Meteor Mon,38(10):1225-1231(in Chinese).
石春娥,王喜全,李元妮,等,2016. 1980-2013年安徽霾天气变化趋势及可能成因[J].大气科学,40(2):357-370. Shi C E,Wang X Q,Li Y N,et al,2016. The trend of haze in Anhui Province from1980 to 2013 and the possible reasons[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci,40(2):357-370(in Chinese).
石春娥,张浩,马井会,等,2017.基于器测能见度的霾天气判断标准的探讨[J].高原气象,36(6):1693-1702. Shi C E,Zhang H,Ma J H,et al, 2017. Investigation on norm of haze identification based on hourly auto-monitored visibility[J]. Plateau Meteor,36(6):1693-1702(in Chinese).
石春娥,张浩,杨元建,等,2018.安徽省持续性区域霆污染的时空分布特征[J].中国环境科学,38(4):1231-1242. Shi C E,Zhang H,Yang Y J,et al,2018. The trend of persistent regional haze in Anhui Province and corresponding characteristics of aerosol pollution[J]. China Environ Sci,38(4):1231-1242(in Chinese).
孙柏民,李崇银,1997.冬季东亚大槽的扰动与热带对流活动的关系[J].科学通报,42(5):500-504. Sun B M,Li C Y,1997. Relationship between disturbance of East Asian trough and tropical convection activities[J]. Chin Sci Bull,42(5):500-504(in Chinese),
童尧青,银燕,钱凌,等,2007.南京地区霾天气特征分析[J].中国环境科学,27(5):584-588. Tong Y Q,Yin Y,Qian L,et al,2007.Analysis of the characteristics of haze phenomena in Nanjing area[J]. China Environ Sci,27(5):584-588(in Chinese).
吴兑,陈慧忠,吴蒙,等,2014.三种霾日统计方法的比较分析——以环首都圈京津冀晋为例[J].中国环境科学,34(3):545-554. Wu D,Chen H Z,Wu M,et al,2014. Comparison of three statistical methods on calculating haze days-taking areas around the capital for example[J]. China Environ Sci,34(3):545-554(in Chinese).
吴兑,廖国莲,邓雪娇,等,2008.珠江三角洲霾天气的近地层输送条件研究[J].应用气象学报,19(1):1-9. Wu D,Liao G L,Deng X J,et al,2008. Transport condition of surface layer under haze weather over the Pearl River Delta[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 19(1):1-9(in Chinese).
吴兑,吴晓京,李非,等,2010. 1951-2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化[J].气象学报,68(5):680-688.Wu D,Wu X J,Li F,et al,2010.Temporal and spatial variation of haze during 1951-2005 in Chinese mainland[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 68(5):680-688(in Chinese).
吴萍,丁一汇,柳艳菊,等,2016.中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风和大气湿度的关系[J].气象学报,74(3):352-366. Wu P,Ding Y H,Liu Y J,et al,2016. Influence of the East Asian winter monsoon and atmospheric humidity on the wintertime haze frequency over central-eastern China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,74(3):352-366(in Chinese).
徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉,1999.近百年东亚冬季风的突变性和周期性[J].应用气象学报,10(1):1-8. Xu J J,Zhu Q G,Zhou T H,1999. Sudden and periodic changes of East Asian winter monsoon in the past century[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 10(1):1-8(in Chinese).
尹志聪,王会军,袁东敏,2015.华北黄淮冬季霾年代际增多与东亚冬季风的减弱[J].科学通报,60(15):1395-1400. Yin Z C,Wang H J,Yuan D M,2015. Interdecadal increase of haze in winter over North China and the Huang-Huai Area and the weakening of the East Asia winter monsoon[J]. Chin Sci Bull, 60(15):1395-1400(in Chinese).
张浩,马晓群,王晓东,2015.安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响[J].气象,41(7):899-906. Zhang H,Ma X Q,Wang X D,2015. Water budget characteristics of winter wheat and its impact on the yield in Anhui Province[J]. Meteor Mon,41(7):899-906(in Chinese).
张浩,石春娥,邱明燕,等,2010.合肥市霾天气变化特征及其影响因子[J].环境科学学报,30(4):714-721. Zhang H,Shi C E,Qiu M Y,et al,2010. Long-term variation of haze phenomena in Hefei and its impact factors[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,30(4):714-721(in Chinese).
张蓬勃,管兆勇,邵鹏程,等,2015.江苏冬季霾日数的年代际变化与环流异常和区域增暖的可能联系[J].热带气象学报,31(1):103-111. Zhang P B,Guan Z Y,Shao P C,et al,2015. Interdecadal changes of wintertime haze days in Jiangsu Province in association with circulation anomalies and regional warming trends[J].J Trop Meteor,31(1):103-111(in Chinese).
张人禾,李强,张若楠,2014. 2013年1月中国东部持续性强雾霾天气产生的气象条件分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):27-36.Zhang R H,Li Q, Zhang R N,2014. Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013[J]. Sci China:Earth Sci, 44(1):27-36(in Chinese).
朱艳峰,2008.一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数[J].气象学报,66(5):781-788. Zhu Y F,2008. An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to description the Chinese mainland winter temperature changes[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 66(5):781-788(in Chinese).
Lau K M,Yang G L,Shen S H,1988. Seasonal and intraseasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia[J]. Mon Wea Rev,116(1):18-37.
Ting Mingfang,Hoerling M P,Xu Taiyi,et al,1996. Northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns during extreme phases of the zonal-mean circulation[J]. J Climate,9(10):2614-2633.
Yang Song,Lau K M,Kim K M,2002. Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J].J Climate,15(3):306-325.
丁一汇,柳艳菊,2014.近50年我国雾和霾的长期变化特征及其与大气湿度的关系[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):37-48. Ding Y H,Liu Y J,2014. Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J]. Sci China:Earth Sci, 44(1):37-48(in Chinese).
樊高峰,任律,毛裕定,2017.基于人工与自动观测对比分析的霾日重建[J].中国环境科学,37(4):1254-1261. Fan G F,Ren L,Mao Y D,2017. Reconstruction of haze day database based on the comparison between manual and automatic observations[J].China Environ Sci,37(4):1254-1261(in Chinese).
符传博,丹利,2014.重污染下我国中东部地区1960-2010年霾日数的时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):219-226, Fu C B,Dan L,2014. Spatiotemporal characteristics of haze days under heavy pollution over central and eastern China during 1960-2010[J].Clima Environ Res, 19(2):219-226(in Chinese).
高歌,2008. 1961-2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析[J].地理学报,63(7):761-768. Gao G.,2008. The climatic characteristics and change of haze days over China during 1961-2005[J]. Acta Geographica Sin,63(7):761-768(in Chinese).
龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武,2002.西伯利亚高压对亚洲大陆的气候影响分析[J].高原气象,21(1):8-14. Gong D Y,Zhu J H,Wang S W,2002. The influence of Siberian high on large-scale climate over continental Asia[J]. Plateau Meteor, 21(1):8-14(in Chinese).
郭其蕴,1983.东亚夏季风强度指数及其变化的分析[J].地理学报,38(3):207-217. Guo Q Y,1983. The summer monsoon intensity index in East Asia and its variation[J]. Acta Geographica Sin,38(3):207-217(in Chinese).
郭其蕴,1994.东亚冬季风的变化与中国气温异常的关系[J].应用气象学报,5(2):218-225. Guo Q Y,1994. Relationship between the variations of East Asian winter monsoon and temperature anomalies China[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 5(2):218-225(in Chinese).
贺圣平,王会军,2012.东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征[J].大气科学,36(3):523-538. He S P,Wang H J,2012. An integrated East Asian winter monsoon index and its interannual variability[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci, 36(3):523-538(in Chinese).
刘实,朱艳峰,孙力,等,2012.东亚冬季风指数:QX/T 144-2011[S].北京:气象出版社:9. Liu S,Zhu Y F,Sun L,et al,2012. Index of East Asia Winter Monsoon:QX/T 144-2011[S]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:9(in Chinese).
齐冰,刘寿东,杜荣光,等,2012.杭州地区气候环境要素对霾天气影响特征分析[J].气象,38(10):1225-1231. Qi B.Liu S D,Du R G,et al,2012. The characteristic analysis of climatic and environmental factors on the haze weather in Hangzhou[J]. Meteor Mon,38(10):1225-1231(in Chinese).
石春娥,王喜全,李元妮,等,2016. 1980-2013年安徽霾天气变化趋势及可能成因[J].大气科学,40(2):357-370. Shi C E,Wang X Q,Li Y N,et al,2016. The trend of haze in Anhui Province from1980 to 2013 and the possible reasons[J]. Chin J Atmos Sci,40(2):357-370(in Chinese).
石春娥,张浩,马井会,等,2017.基于器测能见度的霾天气判断标准的探讨[J].高原气象,36(6):1693-1702. Shi C E,Zhang H,Ma J H,et al, 2017. Investigation on norm of haze identification based on hourly auto-monitored visibility[J]. Plateau Meteor,36(6):1693-1702(in Chinese).
石春娥,张浩,杨元建,等,2018.安徽省持续性区域霆污染的时空分布特征[J].中国环境科学,38(4):1231-1242. Shi C E,Zhang H,Yang Y J,et al,2018. The trend of persistent regional haze in Anhui Province and corresponding characteristics of aerosol pollution[J]. China Environ Sci,38(4):1231-1242(in Chinese).
孙柏民,李崇银,1997.冬季东亚大槽的扰动与热带对流活动的关系[J].科学通报,42(5):500-504. Sun B M,Li C Y,1997. Relationship between disturbance of East Asian trough and tropical convection activities[J]. Chin Sci Bull,42(5):500-504(in Chinese),
童尧青,银燕,钱凌,等,2007.南京地区霾天气特征分析[J].中国环境科学,27(5):584-588. Tong Y Q,Yin Y,Qian L,et al,2007.Analysis of the characteristics of haze phenomena in Nanjing area[J]. China Environ Sci,27(5):584-588(in Chinese).
吴兑,陈慧忠,吴蒙,等,2014.三种霾日统计方法的比较分析——以环首都圈京津冀晋为例[J].中国环境科学,34(3):545-554. Wu D,Chen H Z,Wu M,et al,2014. Comparison of three statistical methods on calculating haze days-taking areas around the capital for example[J]. China Environ Sci,34(3):545-554(in Chinese).
吴兑,廖国莲,邓雪娇,等,2008.珠江三角洲霾天气的近地层输送条件研究[J].应用气象学报,19(1):1-9. Wu D,Liao G L,Deng X J,et al,2008. Transport condition of surface layer under haze weather over the Pearl River Delta[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 19(1):1-9(in Chinese).
吴兑,吴晓京,李非,等,2010. 1951-2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化[J].气象学报,68(5):680-688.Wu D,Wu X J,Li F,et al,2010.Temporal and spatial variation of haze during 1951-2005 in Chinese mainland[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 68(5):680-688(in Chinese).
吴萍,丁一汇,柳艳菊,等,2016.中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风和大气湿度的关系[J].气象学报,74(3):352-366. Wu P,Ding Y H,Liu Y J,et al,2016. Influence of the East Asian winter monsoon and atmospheric humidity on the wintertime haze frequency over central-eastern China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,74(3):352-366(in Chinese).
徐建军,朱乾根,周铁汉,1999.近百年东亚冬季风的突变性和周期性[J].应用气象学报,10(1):1-8. Xu J J,Zhu Q G,Zhou T H,1999. Sudden and periodic changes of East Asian winter monsoon in the past century[J]. J Appl Meteor Sci, 10(1):1-8(in Chinese).
尹志聪,王会军,袁东敏,2015.华北黄淮冬季霾年代际增多与东亚冬季风的减弱[J].科学通报,60(15):1395-1400. Yin Z C,Wang H J,Yuan D M,2015. Interdecadal increase of haze in winter over North China and the Huang-Huai Area and the weakening of the East Asia winter monsoon[J]. Chin Sci Bull, 60(15):1395-1400(in Chinese).
张浩,马晓群,王晓东,2015.安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响[J].气象,41(7):899-906. Zhang H,Ma X Q,Wang X D,2015. Water budget characteristics of winter wheat and its impact on the yield in Anhui Province[J]. Meteor Mon,41(7):899-906(in Chinese).
张浩,石春娥,邱明燕,等,2010.合肥市霾天气变化特征及其影响因子[J].环境科学学报,30(4):714-721. Zhang H,Shi C E,Qiu M Y,et al,2010. Long-term variation of haze phenomena in Hefei and its impact factors[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,30(4):714-721(in Chinese).
张蓬勃,管兆勇,邵鹏程,等,2015.江苏冬季霾日数的年代际变化与环流异常和区域增暖的可能联系[J].热带气象学报,31(1):103-111. Zhang P B,Guan Z Y,Shao P C,et al,2015. Interdecadal changes of wintertime haze days in Jiangsu Province in association with circulation anomalies and regional warming trends[J].J Trop Meteor,31(1):103-111(in Chinese).
张人禾,李强,张若楠,2014. 2013年1月中国东部持续性强雾霾天气产生的气象条件分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):27-36.Zhang R H,Li Q, Zhang R N,2014. Meteorological conditions for the persistent severe fog and haze event over eastern China in January 2013[J]. Sci China:Earth Sci, 44(1):27-36(in Chinese).
朱艳峰,2008.一个适用于描述中国大陆冬季气温变化的东亚冬季风指数[J].气象学报,66(5):781-788. Zhu Y F,2008. An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to description the Chinese mainland winter temperature changes[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 66(5):781-788(in Chinese).
Lau K M,Yang G L,Shen S H,1988. Seasonal and intraseasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia[J]. Mon Wea Rev,116(1):18-37.
Ting Mingfang,Hoerling M P,Xu Taiyi,et al,1996. Northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns during extreme phases of the zonal-mean circulation[J]. J Climate,9(10):2614-2633.
Yang Song,Lau K M,Kim K M,2002. Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies[J].J Climate,15(3):306-325.