海洋产业结构调整对海洋经济影响的实证分析
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摘要
海洋经济是新一轮大国之间的经济较量,许多西方发达国家已经在海洋经济上遥遥领先。通过观察美国、英国等海洋大国发现,沿海国家均有一个统一的发展路径:产业结构的有效调整保证了海洋经济的高速发展。产业结构调整分为产业结构合理化和高级化两个方面,故文章将从"两化"视角来衡量我国海洋产业结构的调整情况,利用Eviews 8.0软件对2005—2015年我国海洋产业结构"两化"与海洋经济增长之间进行平稳性检验、协整检验及最小二乘法回归。由协整方程可知,海洋产业结构合理化和高级化每增长1%,会分别带动海洋经济上涨1.87%和2.96%;再由最小二乘法回归系数的方向性可知:海洋产业结构合理化、高级化会促进海洋经济的增长。根据研究结果进行分析可知,我国未来海洋产业结构调整的重点是海洋第二产业,对其未来发展提出3点建议,即基层和高端人才的培养、水产品精加工和生物医药的优先发展以及法律制度软环境的构造。
Marine economy is an economic contest between big countries.Many western developed countries have already taken the lead in marine economy development.By observing maritime powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom,coastal countries have a unified developing path:the effective adjustment of industrial structure guarantees the growth of marine economy.The adjustment of industrial structure is divided into two aspects:rationalization and advancedization of industrial structure.Therefore,this paper measured the adjustment of China's marine industry structure from the perspective of rationalization and advancedization of marine industry structure,and used Eviews 8.0 software to conduct a stability test,cointegration test and the least squares regression between China's marine industry structure adjustment and marine economic growth from 2005 to 2015.From the cointegration equation,it could be seen that for every 1%increase in the rationalization and advancedization of the marine industry structure,the marine economy would increase by 1.87% and 2.96% respectively.The direction of the least squares regression coefficient showed:the rationalization and advancedization of the marine industry structure would promote the growth of marine economy.According to the analysis of the research results,the focus of China's future marine industry restructuring would be the marine secondary industry,and three suggestions for its future development were proposed,namely the cultivation of grassroots and high-end talents,the priority development of aquatic products and biomedicine,and the construction of the soft environment of legal systems.
Marine economy is an economic contest between big countries.Many western developed countries have already taken the lead in marine economy development.By observing maritime powers such as the United States and the United Kingdom,coastal countries have a unified developing path:the effective adjustment of industrial structure guarantees the growth of marine economy.The adjustment of industrial structure is divided into two aspects:rationalization and advancedization of industrial structure.Therefore,this paper measured the adjustment of China's marine industry structure from the perspective of rationalization and advancedization of marine industry structure,and used Eviews 8.0 software to conduct a stability test,cointegration test and the least squares regression between China's marine industry structure adjustment and marine economic growth from 2005 to 2015.From the cointegration equation,it could be seen that for every 1%increase in the rationalization and advancedization of the marine industry structure,the marine economy would increase by 1.87% and 2.96% respectively.The direction of the least squares regression coefficient showed:the rationalization and advancedization of the marine industry structure would promote the growth of marine economy.According to the analysis of the research results,the focus of China's future marine industry restructuring would be the marine secondary industry,and three suggestions for its future development were proposed,namely the cultivation of grassroots and high-end talents,the priority development of aquatic products and biomedicine,and the construction of the soft environment of legal systems.
引文
[1]王端岚.福建省海洋产业结构变动与海洋经济增长的关系研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2013,30(9):85-90.
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[3]马学广,张翼飞.海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长影响的时空差异研究[J].区域经济评论,2017(5):94-102.
[4]王波,韩立民.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响:基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1182-1193.
[5]章成,平瑛.海洋产业结构优化与海洋经济增长研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(3):38-44.
[6]彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013(3):91-100.
[7]常浩娟,王永静.产业结构变动对我国经济增长影响的实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(7):110-114.
[8]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5):4-16+31.
[9]吕明元,尤萌萌.韩国产业结构变迁对经济增长方式转型的影响:基于能耗碳排放的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2013(7):73-80+89.
[10]方福前,詹新宇.我国产业结构升级对经济波动的熨平效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(9):5-16.
[11]付凌晖.我国产业结构高级化与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010,27(8):79-81.
[12]于斌斌.产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应:基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(12):83-98.
[13]张耀光,刘锴,王圣云,等.中国和美国海洋经济与海洋产业结构特征对比:基于海洋GDP中国超过美国的实证分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1614-1621.
[14]李懿,张盈盈.国外海洋经济发展实践与经验启示[J].国家治理,2017(22):41-48.
[2]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,王萌.我国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长贡献的时空差异研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):98-103.
[3]马学广,张翼飞.海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长影响的时空差异研究[J].区域经济评论,2017(5):94-102.
[4]王波,韩立民.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响:基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1182-1193.
[5]章成,平瑛.海洋产业结构优化与海洋经济增长研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2017,34(3):38-44.
[6]彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013(3):91-100.
[7]常浩娟,王永静.产业结构变动对我国经济增长影响的实证分析[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(7):110-114.
[8]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,46(5):4-16+31.
[9]吕明元,尤萌萌.韩国产业结构变迁对经济增长方式转型的影响:基于能耗碳排放的实证分析[J].世界经济研究,2013(7):73-80+89.
[10]方福前,詹新宇.我国产业结构升级对经济波动的熨平效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011(9):5-16.
[11]付凌晖.我国产业结构高级化与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010,27(8):79-81.
[12]于斌斌.产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应:基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J].中国工业经济,2015(12):83-98.
[13]张耀光,刘锴,王圣云,等.中国和美国海洋经济与海洋产业结构特征对比:基于海洋GDP中国超过美国的实证分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(11):1614-1621.
[14]李懿,张盈盈.国外海洋经济发展实践与经验启示[J].国家治理,2017(22):41-48.