清代珠江流域旱涝灾害变化特征与R/S分析
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摘要
在整理清代1644-1911年的历史文献资料的基础上,统计了珠江流域以及各个子流域的旱涝灾害发生频次.利用滑动平均、小波分析等方法研究了清代珠江流域的旱涝灾害演变趋势和周期;通过R/S分析计算Hurst指数,预测未来旱涝变化特征,并通过近50年的气象降水资料计算的SPI指数对预测结果进行验证.结果表明:清代珠江流域洪涝灾害的频次整体高于干旱灾害的频次,其中1695年、 1860年和1894年既发生了流域性干旱也发生了流域性洪涝;旱涝频次的主要振荡周期为32～34 a;珠江流域未来的干旱、洪涝灾害整体变化将与过去的变化趋势一致,且流域洪涝序列的Hurst指数比干旱序列的Hurst指数更为接近1.0,说明清代珠江流域洪涝序列的趋势延续性比干旱序列更强.
Through sorting out the historical documents and data of the Qing Dynasty from 1644 to 1911, the frequency of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin and various sub basins have been calculated. The trend and cycle of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin in Qing Dynasty have been studied by means of moving average and wavelet analysis. The Hurst index has been calculated by R/S analysis to predict the characteristics of drought and flood in the future, and the prediction results are verified by the SPI index calculated by the meteorological precipitation data in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin during the Qing Dynasty is higher than the frequency of drought disasters. In 1695, 1860 and 1894, there was basin drought and basin flood. The main oscillation period of the frequency of drought and flood is in 32-34 a. The overall changes of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin will be in accordance with the past trends, and the Hurst index of the flood sequence of the river basin is closer to 1 than the Hurst index of the drought sequence, indicating that the trend continuity of the flood sequence is stronger than that of the drought sequence.
Through sorting out the historical documents and data of the Qing Dynasty from 1644 to 1911, the frequency of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin and various sub basins have been calculated. The trend and cycle of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin in Qing Dynasty have been studied by means of moving average and wavelet analysis. The Hurst index has been calculated by R/S analysis to predict the characteristics of drought and flood in the future, and the prediction results are verified by the SPI index calculated by the meteorological precipitation data in the last 50 years. The results show that the frequency of flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin during the Qing Dynasty is higher than the frequency of drought disasters. In 1695, 1860 and 1894, there was basin drought and basin flood. The main oscillation period of the frequency of drought and flood is in 32-34 a. The overall changes of drought and flood disasters in the Pearl River Basin will be in accordance with the past trends, and the Hurst index of the flood sequence of the river basin is closer to 1 than the Hurst index of the drought sequence, indicating that the trend continuity of the flood sequence is stronger than that of the drought sequence.
引文
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[2] 张健,满志敏,肖薇薇,等.1644-2009年黄河中游旱涝序列重建与特征诊断 [J].地理研究,2013,32(9):1579-1590.
[3] 黄荣辉,周连童.我国重大气候灾害特征形成机理和预测研究 [J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(1):1-9.
[4] 毕硕本,钱育君,陈昌春,等.1470-1912年西北东部地区旱涝等级重建序列的特征及对比分析 [J].干旱区地理,2016,39(1):12-21.
[5] HAN Y,WANG S X,ZHOU Y,et al.Temporal and Spatial Variability of Flood/Drought in China during the Last 530 years [J].Disaster Advances,2012,5:1760-1765.
[6] 赵玉,穆兴民,蒋冲.兰州地区500余年来旱涝变化规律分析 [J].水土保持研究,2014,21(1):132-136,141.
[7] 冯建民,梁旭,郑广芬,等.540年来宁夏旱涝分区及演变趋势的诊断分析 [J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(7):69-74.
[8] 袁媛.1470-2008年陕西省旱涝序列重建与研究 [C]//第27届中国气象学会年会干旱半干旱区地气相互作用分会场论文集.北京,2010.
[9] 姚章民,钱燕.珠江重点区域干旱特征指标的初步分析研究[J].人民珠江,2007,28(5):7-8.
[10] FISCHER T,GEMMER M,SU B,et al.Long-Term Meteorological and Hydrological Dryness and Wetness Conditions in the PRB,South China [J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions,2012,9:10525-10562.
[11] 王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价 [J].生态环境学报,2014,23(12):1897-1904.
[12] 杨帅,于志岗,苏筠.中国气象干旱的空间格局特征( 1951-2011) [J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(10):54-60.
[13] 王志伟,翟盘茂,武永利.近55 年来中国 10 大水文区域干旱化分析 [J].高原气象,2007,26(4):874-880.
[14] 张德二.中国近三千年气象记录总集(全四册) [M].南京:凤凰出版社,2005.
[15] 温克刚,杨年珠.中国气象灾害大典——广西卷 [M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[16] 谭其骧.简明中国历史地图集 [M].北京:中国地图出版社,1991.
[17] 符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法 [J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[18] GROSSELMANN A,MORLET J,PAUL T.Transforms Associated to Square Integrable Group Representations [J].I:General results.Journal of Mathematical Physica,1985,26(10):2473-2479.
[19] HURST H E.Long-Term Storage of Reservoirs [J].Trans Am Soc Civ Eng,1951,116:772-785.
[20] MANDELBROT B B,WALLIS J R.Some Long-Run Properties of Geophysical Records [J].Water Resources Res.,1969,5(2):321-340.
[21] MANDELBROT B B,WALLIS J R.Robustness of the Rescaled Range R/S in the Measurement of Noncyclic Long-Run Sta-Tistical Dependence [J].Water Resources Res,1969,5(5):967-988.
[22] DEMETRIS KOUTSOYIANNIS.Climate Change,the Hurst Phenomenon,and Hydrological Statistics [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2003,48(1):3-24.
[23] 陈彦光.基于Matlab的地理数据分析 [M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012.
[24] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局发布.气象干旱等级(GB/T20481—2006)[S].中国标准出版社,2006.
[25] 秦剑,解明恩,刘瑜,等.云南气象灾害总论 [M].北京:气象出版社,2000:34- 40,57-62.
[26] 刘佳旭,李丽娟,李九一,等.1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应 [J/OL].地球信息科学学报,2016,18(8):1077-1086.
[27] 王怀清,殷剑敏,孔萍,等.鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析 [J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(7):1214-1220.
[28] 郑太辉,陈晓安,杨洁.近50a江西省旱、 涝变化趋势及驱动因素研究 [J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(4):664-670.
[29] 郑景云,张丕远,周玉孚,等.利用早涝县次建立历史时期旱涝指数序列的试验 [J].地理研究,1993,12(3):1-9.
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