基于模糊突变的地下洞室施工安全风险评价研究

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英文篇名：Study on Safety Risk Assessment of Underground Cavern Construction Based on Fuzzy Mutation 作者：柯超 英文作者：KE Chao;College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University; 关键词：地下洞室 ; 施工 ; 模糊突变 ; 风险评价 ; 突变理论 ; 模糊综合评价法 英文关键词：underground cavern;;construction;;fuzzy mutation;;risk assessment;;catastrophe theory;;fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method 中文刊名：RMZJ 英文刊名：Pearl River 机构：三峡大学水利与环境学院; 出版日期：2017-06-27 11:00 出版单位：人民珠江 年：2017 期：v.38;No.230 语种：中文; 页：RMZJ201706012 页数：4 CN：06 ISSN：44-1037/TV 分类号：57-60

摘要

为准确地对地下洞室施工安全状况进行评估,建立基于模糊突变的地下洞室施工安全风险评价研究方法。首先从人-机械-环境-管理4方面出发,结合地下洞室施工安全风险不确定的特性,建立一个以定性指标为主、定量指标为辅的4级风险评价体系;然后把突变理论和模糊综合评价法相结合,构建基于模糊突变的地下洞室施工安全风险评价模型;最后运用该模型对某地区5个地下洞室施工安全风险进行评价,并与实际情况相比较,从而验证该模型的合理性和有效性。结果表明:地下洞室A,B,C,D,E施工风险等级分别属于较危险,较安全,较安全,较安全,较危险,地下洞室A,E存在较大的风险隐患。利用该模型能够对这5个地下洞室施工安全风险等级做出科学的评估,便于当地建设主管部门对地下洞室A,E进行重点安全管控与跟踪监督。
        In order to evaluate the safety status of underground cavern construction accurately, a safety risk assessment method of underground cavern construction based on fuzzy mutation is established. First of all, from the four aspects of man-machine-environment-management, combined with uncertainty in the construction of underground caverns, a four-grade risk evaluation system with qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes as the main is established; Then, combining the catastrophe theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a safety risk assessment model of underground cavern construction based on fuzzy mutation is constructed; Finally, the model is used to evaluate the safety risk of five underground caverns in a certain area, and the rationality and feasibility of the model are verified. The results show that the construction risk grades of underground cavern A, B, C, D and E belong to more dangerous, safer, safer and more dangerous ones respectively. The underground caverns A and E have higher risk. The model can be used to make a scientific assessment of the safety risk grade of the five underground caverns so that the local construction authorities can carry out key safety control and follow-up supervision on the underground caverns A and E.

引文

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