基于替代模型的煤矸石堆地下水污染随机模拟
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摘要
为分析参数的不确定性对地下水污染质运移数值模拟模型输出结果的影响,以抚顺西舍场煤矸石堆及周边地区为研究对象,以硫酸根离子为模拟因子建立污染质运移的数值模拟模型,运用灵敏度分析法筛选对模拟模型影响较大的参数作为随机变量;为减少反复调用模拟模型产生的计算负荷,运用克里格方法建立污染质运移模拟模型的替代模型,利用替代模型完成蒙特卡洛随机模拟;最后,对随机模拟的输出结果进行统计分析,利用污染质浓度分布函数估算单井遭受污染的风险.结果表明,井1,井2和井3中达到地下水质量标准的Ⅲ类标准的概率分别为0.6%,97.6%和0%,藉此为地下水污染防治提供更加科学,丰富的参考依据.
In order to analyze the influence of parameter uncertainly on the numerical model of groundwater pollution, aimed at making a research on Fushun Xishechang and the surrounding area, this paper firstly established a groundwater solute transport numerical simulation model by taking sulfate ion as the simulation factor. For the purpose of reducing computation load, the sensitivity analysis method was used to select the more sensitive parameters as random variables. Then, the paper constructed the Kriging surrogate model of the simulation model, that was used to finish the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the output results of the stochastic simulation are statistically analyzed, that was used to construct the pollutant concentration distribution function to estimate the pollution risk of single well. The probability of well 1,2 and 3 that meet the Ⅲ grade of the groundwater quality standard were 0.6%, 97.6% and 0%, respectively, which can provide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for groundwater pollution prevention and control.
In order to analyze the influence of parameter uncertainly on the numerical model of groundwater pollution, aimed at making a research on Fushun Xishechang and the surrounding area, this paper firstly established a groundwater solute transport numerical simulation model by taking sulfate ion as the simulation factor. For the purpose of reducing computation load, the sensitivity analysis method was used to select the more sensitive parameters as random variables. Then, the paper constructed the Kriging surrogate model of the simulation model, that was used to finish the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the output results of the stochastic simulation are statistically analyzed, that was used to construct the pollutant concentration distribution function to estimate the pollution risk of single well. The probability of well 1,2 and 3 that meet the Ⅲ grade of the groundwater quality standard were 0.6%, 97.6% and 0%, respectively, which can provide a more scientific and comprehensive reference for groundwater pollution prevention and control.
引文
[1]王伦,杨新泉,任立国,等.抚顺煤矸石对地下水污染影响现状及防治措施[J].中国国土资源经济,2013,(10):70-72.Wang L,Yang X Q,Ren L G,et al.Control measures aimed at dealing with the impact of coal gangue on groundwater pollution in Fushun[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,2013,(10):70-72.
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[11]常振波,卢文喜,辛欣,等.基于灵敏度分析和替代模型的地下水污染风险评价方法[J].中国环境科学,2017,(1):167-173.Chang Z B,Lu W X,Xin X,et al.Groundwater contamination risk assessment method based on sensitivity analysis and surrogate model[J].China Environmental Science,2017(1):167-173.
[12]李久辉,卢文喜,常振波,等.基于不确定性分析的地下水污染超标风险预警[J].中国环境科学,2017,(6):2270-2277.Li J H,Lu W X,Chang Z B,et al.Risk prediction of groundwater pollution based on uncertainty analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2017,(6):2270-2277.
[13]苗添升,卢文喜,欧阳琦,等.地下水数值模拟的不确定性分析在水质预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,(8):20-23.Miao T S,Lu W X,Ou Y Q,et al.Application of uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical simulation in water quality prediction[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,(8):20-23.
[14]王涵,卢文喜,李久辉,等.地下水DNAPLs污染多相流的随机模拟及其不确定性分析[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(7):174-181.Wang H,Lu W X,Li J H,et al.Stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis of multi-phase flow of groundwater polluted by DNAPLs[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(7):174-181.
[15]Atanassov E,Dimov I T.What Monte Carlo models can do and cannot do efficiently?[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2008,32(8):1477-1500.
[16]Densmore J D,Urbatsch T J,Evans T M,et al.A hybrid transportdiffusion method for Monte Carlo radiative-transfer simulations[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2007,222(2):485-503.
[17]陆乐,吴吉春.地下水数值模拟不确定性的贝叶斯分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(3):264-271.Lu L,Wu J C.Bayesian analysis of uncertainties in groundwater numerical simulation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(3):264-271.
[18]Luo J,Lu W.Sobol′sensitivity analysis of NAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation process based on multiple surrogates[J].Computers&Geosciences,2014,67:110-116.
[19]Luo J,Lu W.Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in groundwater remediation process[J].Journal of Earth System Science,2014,123(7):1579-1589.
[20]吴义忠,陈立平.多领域物理系统的仿真优化方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.Wu Y Z,Chen L P.Simulation Optimization method for Multi-domain physical Systems[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.
[21]Kuhnt S,Steinberg D M.Design and analysis of computer experiments[J].AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,2010,94(4):307-309.
[22]Lu W X,Chu H B,Zhao Y,et al.Optimization of denser nonaqueous phase liquids-contaminated groundwater remediation based on Kriging surrogate model[J].Water Practice&Technology,2013,8(2):304-314.
[23]Hupet F,Vanclooster M.Effect of the sampling frequency of meteorological varialbes on the estimation of reference evapotranspiration[J].Journal of Hydrology,2001,243(3/4):192-204.
[24]GB/T 14848-2017地下水质量标准[S].GB/T 14848-2017 Standard for groundwater quality[S].
[2]刘悦忆,赵建世,黄跃飞,等.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的水质概率预报模型[J].水利学报,2015,46(1):51-57.Liu Y Y,Zhao J S,Huang Y F,et al.Water quality probability forecasting model based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(1):51-57.
[3]吴吉春,陆乐.地下水模拟不确定性分析[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(3):227-234.Wu J C,Lu L.Uncertainty analysis for groundwater modeling[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences),2011,47(3):227-234.
[4]Wu C M,Yeh T C J,et al.Traditional analysis of aquifer tests:Comparing apples to oranges?[J].Water Resources Research,2005,41(9)DIO:10.1029/2004WR003717.
[5]Goodrich M T,Mccord J T.Quantification of uncertainty in exposure assessments at hazardous waste sites[J].Groundwater,2010,33(5):727-732.
[6]束龙仓,李伟,李砚阁.地下水库库容不确定性分析[J].水文地质工程地质,2006,33(4):45-47.Shu L C,Li W,Li Y G.Uncertainty analysis of groundwater reservoir capacity[J].Hydrogeology&Engineering Geology,2006,33(4):45-47.
[7]温忠辉,曹英杰.开采量不确定条件下数值模拟结果的可靠性分析[J].吉林大学学报(地),2007,37(2):37-40.Wen Z H,Cao Y J.Reliability analysis of numerical simulation results under the condition of groundwater withdrawal uncertainty[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),2007,37(2):37-40.
[8]束龙仓,陶玉飞,刘佩贵.考虑水文地质参数不确定性的地下水补给量可靠度计算[J].水利学报,2008,39(3):346-350.Shu L C,Tao Y F,Liu P G.Reliability calculation method for groundwater recharge in consideration of uncertainty of hydrogeological parameters[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2008,39(3):346-350.
[9]Hassan A E,Bekhit H M,Chapman J B.Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo to quantify parameter uncertainty and its effect on predictions of a groundwater flow model[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2009,24(6):749-763.
[10]陆乐,吴吉春,王晶晶.多尺度非均质多孔介质中溶质运移的蒙特卡罗模拟[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):334-338.Lu L,Wu J C,Wang J J.Monte Carlo modeling of solute transport in a porous medium with multi-scale heterogeneity[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(3):334-338.
[11]常振波,卢文喜,辛欣,等.基于灵敏度分析和替代模型的地下水污染风险评价方法[J].中国环境科学,2017,(1):167-173.Chang Z B,Lu W X,Xin X,et al.Groundwater contamination risk assessment method based on sensitivity analysis and surrogate model[J].China Environmental Science,2017(1):167-173.
[12]李久辉,卢文喜,常振波,等.基于不确定性分析的地下水污染超标风险预警[J].中国环境科学,2017,(6):2270-2277.Li J H,Lu W X,Chang Z B,et al.Risk prediction of groundwater pollution based on uncertainty analysis[J].China Environmental Science,2017,(6):2270-2277.
[13]苗添升,卢文喜,欧阳琦,等.地下水数值模拟的不确定性分析在水质预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2016,(8):20-23.Miao T S,Lu W X,Ou Y Q,et al.Application of uncertainty analysis of groundwater numerical simulation in water quality prediction[J].Water Resources and Power,2016,(8):20-23.
[14]王涵,卢文喜,李久辉,等.地下水DNAPLs污染多相流的随机模拟及其不确定性分析[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(7):174-181.Wang H,Lu W X,Li J H,et al.Stochastic simulation and uncertainty analysis of multi-phase flow of groundwater polluted by DNAPLs[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(7):174-181.
[15]Atanassov E,Dimov I T.What Monte Carlo models can do and cannot do efficiently?[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2008,32(8):1477-1500.
[16]Densmore J D,Urbatsch T J,Evans T M,et al.A hybrid transportdiffusion method for Monte Carlo radiative-transfer simulations[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2007,222(2):485-503.
[17]陆乐,吴吉春.地下水数值模拟不确定性的贝叶斯分析[J].水利学报,2010,41(3):264-271.Lu L,Wu J C.Bayesian analysis of uncertainties in groundwater numerical simulation[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(3):264-271.
[18]Luo J,Lu W.Sobol′sensitivity analysis of NAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation process based on multiple surrogates[J].Computers&Geosciences,2014,67:110-116.
[19]Luo J,Lu W.Comparison of surrogate models with different methods in groundwater remediation process[J].Journal of Earth System Science,2014,123(7):1579-1589.
[20]吴义忠,陈立平.多领域物理系统的仿真优化方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2011.Wu Y Z,Chen L P.Simulation Optimization method for Multi-domain physical Systems[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011.
[21]Kuhnt S,Steinberg D M.Design and analysis of computer experiments[J].AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,2010,94(4):307-309.
[22]Lu W X,Chu H B,Zhao Y,et al.Optimization of denser nonaqueous phase liquids-contaminated groundwater remediation based on Kriging surrogate model[J].Water Practice&Technology,2013,8(2):304-314.
[23]Hupet F,Vanclooster M.Effect of the sampling frequency of meteorological varialbes on the estimation of reference evapotranspiration[J].Journal of Hydrology,2001,243(3/4):192-204.
[24]GB/T 14848-2017地下水质量标准[S].GB/T 14848-2017 Standard for groundwater quality[S].