基于成本-安全均衡的川藏高速公路规划设计方法研究
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摘要
山区高速公路的规划设计是通过合规性检查来保障其运营安全的。然而,仅仅依赖于合规性检查会误导工程设计人员在实际操作中选取符合规范的且成本造价最低的方案作为最终的设计方案,而该方案的整体风险水平却是未知的,这将给项目运营带来巨大的安全隐患。本文提出了一种基于成本-安全均衡的高速公路规划设计方法,该方法主要包括以下四个步骤:(1)分别提取项目成本与安全的影响因素,以少量参数化的方式来表达高速公路的设计方案;(2)建立风险因素与项目成本之间的预估方程式;(3)通过构造事故树模型,在众多设计参数中识别出风险因素;(4)将可接受风险分析理论引入交通安全评价中,提出了一种在可接受风险范围内求解具有成本效益的最优解的算法,以帮助管理者决策。该方法在位于海拔梯度大、山脉范围广的川藏高速公路工程项目中得到了应用和验证。实验结果表明,该方法显著提高了项目设计的安全性以及成本效益。
Engineering designs for mountainous highways emphasize compliance checking to ensure safety.However, relying solely on compliance checking may lead designers to minimize costs at the expense of high risk indicators, since the overall risk level of the highway design is unknown to the designers.This paper describes a method for the simultaneous consideration of traffic safety risks and the associated cost burden related to the appropriate planning and design of a mountainous highway. The method can be carried out in four steps: First, the highway design is represented by a new parametric framework to extract the key design variables that affect not only the life-cycle cost but also the operational safety.Second, the relationship between the life-cycle cost and the operational safety risk factors is established in the cost-estimation functions. Third, a fault tree analysis(FTA) is introduced to identify the traffic risk factors from the design variables. The safety performance of the design solutions is also assessed by the generalized linear-regression model. Fourth, a theory of acceptable risk analysis is introduced to the traffic safety assessment, and a computing algorithm is proposed to solve for a cost-efficient optimal solution within the range of acceptable risk, in order to help decision-makers. This approach was applied and examined in the Sichuan–Tibet Highway engineering project, which is located in a complex area with a large elevation gradient and a wide range of mountains. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly improved both the safety and cost performance of the project in the study area.
Engineering designs for mountainous highways emphasize compliance checking to ensure safety.However, relying solely on compliance checking may lead designers to minimize costs at the expense of high risk indicators, since the overall risk level of the highway design is unknown to the designers.This paper describes a method for the simultaneous consideration of traffic safety risks and the associated cost burden related to the appropriate planning and design of a mountainous highway. The method can be carried out in four steps: First, the highway design is represented by a new parametric framework to extract the key design variables that affect not only the life-cycle cost but also the operational safety.Second, the relationship between the life-cycle cost and the operational safety risk factors is established in the cost-estimation functions. Third, a fault tree analysis(FTA) is introduced to identify the traffic risk factors from the design variables. The safety performance of the design solutions is also assessed by the generalized linear-regression model. Fourth, a theory of acceptable risk analysis is introduced to the traffic safety assessment, and a computing algorithm is proposed to solve for a cost-efficient optimal solution within the range of acceptable risk, in order to help decision-makers. This approach was applied and examined in the Sichuan–Tibet Highway engineering project, which is located in a complex area with a large elevation gradient and a wide range of mountains. The experimental results show that the proposed approach significantly improved both the safety and cost performance of the project in the study area.
引文
[1]Chen F,Chen S.Differences in injury severity of accidents on mountainous highways and non-mountainous highways.Procedia Soc Behav Sci2013;96:1868-79.
[2]Zhao H,Yin Z,Xiang H,Liao Z,Wang Z.Preliminary study on alterations of altitude road traffic in China from 2006 to 2013.PLoS ONE 2017;12(2):e0171090.
[3]Ma S,Shao C,Zhai R,Liu D.Traffic safety evaluation of the provincial regions in china based on principal component analysis.In:Proceedings of the 2009Second International Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation;Oct 10-11;Changsha,China.New York:IEEE;2009.p.864-7.
[4]Mainwaring G,Olsen TO.Long undersea tunnels:recognizing and overcoming the logistics of operation and construction.Engineering 2018;4(2):249-53.
[5]Montella A,Imbriani LL.Safety performance functions incorporating design consistency variables.Accid Anal Prev 2015;74:133-44.
[6]Ma Z,Zhang H,Chien SIJ,Wang J,Dong C.Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model:a case study in China.Accid Anal Prev 2017;98:214-22.
[7]Zhang Y,Chini A.Performance of seven highway construction contracting methods analyzed by project size.Front Eng Manage 2018;5(2):1-11.
[8]Ismail K,Sayed T.Risk-optimal highway design:methodology and case studies.Saf Sci 2012;50(7):1513-21.
[9]Rosey F,Auberlet JM.Trajectory variability:road geometry difficulty indicator.Saf Sci 2012;50(9):1818-28.
[10]Kang MW,Jha MK,Schonfeld P.Applicability of highway alignment optimization models.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2012;21(1):257-86.
[11]Hare W,Hossain S,Lucet Y,Rahman F.Models and strategies for efficiently determining an optimal vertical alignment of roads.Comput Oper Res2014;44:161-73.
[12]Cheng JF,Lee Y.Model for three-dimensional highway alignment.J Transp Eng2006;132(12):913-20.
[13]Jong J-C,Jha MK,Schonfeld P.Preliminary highway design with genetic algorithms and geographic information systems.Computer-Aided Civil Infrastruct Eng 2000;15(4):261-71.
[14]Li W,Pu H,Schonfeld P,Yang J,Zhang H,Wang L,et al.Mountain railway alignment optimization with bidirectional distance transform and genetic algorithm.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 2017;32(8):691-709.
[15]Jha MK,Schonfeld P.A highway alignment optimization model using geographic information systems.Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 2004;38(6):455-81.
[16]Kang MW,Schonfeld P,Yang N.Prescreening and repairing in a genetic algorithm for highway alignment optimization.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 2009;24(2):109-19.
[17]Maji A,Jha MK.Multi-objective highway alignment optimization using a genetic algorithm.J Adv Transp 2009;43(4):481-504.
[18]Kang MW.An alignment optimization model for a simple highway network[dissertation].College Park:University of Maryland;2008.
[19]Ding L,Xu J.A review of metro construction in China:organization,market,cost,safety and schedule.Front Eng Manage 2017;4(1):4-19.
[20]Hammad A,Itoh Y,Nishido T.Bridge planning using GIS and expert system approach.J Comput Civ Eng 1993;7(3):278-95.
[21]Kim E,Jha MK,Son B.Improving the computational efficiency of highway alignment optimization models through a stepwise genetic algorithms approach.Transp Res Part B:Methodol 2005;39(4):339-60.
[22]Pushak Y,Hare W,Lucet Y.Multiple-path selection for new highway alignments using discrete algorithms.Eur J Oper Res 2016;248(2):415-27.
[23]Shafahi Y,Bagherian M.A customized particle swarm method to solve highway alignment optimization problem.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng2013;28(1):52-67.
[24]Jong JC,Schonfeld P.An evolutionary model for simultaneously optimizing three-dimensional highway alignments.Transp Res Part B:Methodol 2003;37(2):107-28.
[25]Saha P,Ksaibati K.An optimization model for improving highway safety.JTraffic Transp Eng 2016;3(6):549-58.
[26]Rodriguez-Roman D.A surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm for the selection and design of highway safety and travel time improvement projects.Saf Sci2018;103:305-15.
[27]Kang MW,Shariat S,Jha MK.New highway geometric design methods for minimizing vehicular fuel consumption and improving safety.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2013;31:99-111.
[28]Casal G,Santamarina D,Vázquez-Méndez ME.Optimization of horizontal alignment geometry in road design and reconstruction.Transp Res Part CEmerg Technol 2017;74:261-74.
[29]Ahmed M,Huang H,Abdel-Aty M,Guevara B.Exploring a Bayesian hierarchical approach for developing safety performance functions for a mountainous freeway.Accid Anal Prev 2011;43(4):1581-9.
[30]Zheng Z,Du Z,Yan Q,Xiang Q,Chen G.The impact of rhythm-based visual reference system in long highway tunnels.Saf Sci 2017;95:75-82.
[31]Huang H,Peng Y,Wang J,Luo Q,Li X.Interactive risk analysis on crash injury severity at a mountainous freeway with tunnel groups in China.Accid Anal Prev 2018;111:56-62.
[32]Zhao Y,Li P.A statistical analysis of China’s traffic tunnel development data.Engineering 2018;4(1):3-5.
[33]Kabir S.An overview of fault tree analysis and its application in model based dependability analysis.Expert Syst Appl 2017;77:114-35.
[34]Bobbio A,Portinale L,Minichino M,Ciancamerla E.Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2001;71(3):249-60.
[35]Ng JCW,Sayed T.Effect of geometric design consistency on road safety.Can JCiv Eng 2004;31(2):218-27.
[36]Cheliyan AS,Bhattacharyya SK.Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems.J Ocean Eng Sci 2018;3(1):38-48.
[37]Hirpa D,Hare W,Lucet Y,Pushak Y,Tesfamariam S.A bi-objective optimization framework for three-dimensional road alignment design.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2016;65:61-78.
[38]Cafiso S,La Cava G.Driving performance,alignment consistency,and road safety:real-world experiment.Transp Res Rec 2009;2102(1):1-8.
[39]Da Costa JO,Jacques MAP,Soares FEC,Freitas EF.Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways.Accid Anal Prev2016;86:59-67.
[40]AASHTO.Highway Safety Manual.Washington:AASHTO;2010.
[41]Brimley B,Saito M,Schultz G.Calibration of Highway Safety Manual safety performance function:development of new models for rural two-lane twoway highways.Transp Res Rec 2012;2279(1):82-9.
[42]Venkataraman NS,Ulfarsson GF,Shankar VN.Extending the Highway Safety Manual(HSM)framework for traffic safety performance evaluation.Saf Sci2014;64:146-54.
[43]U.S.Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration.Interactive Highway Safety Design Model(IHSDM).Overview.Version14.0.0[software].2018 Sep[cited 2018 Oct 24].Available from:https://highways.dot.gov/safety/interactive-highway-safety-design-model/interactive-highway-safety-design-model-ihsdm.
[44]AASHTO.Safety analyst overview.[Software].2018[cited 2018 Oct 24].Available from:http://www.safetyanalyst.org.
[45]U.S.Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration.Crash modification factors clearinghouse.2018[cited 2018 Nov 20].Available from:http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org.
[46]Li L,Gayah VV,Donnell ET.Development of regionalized SPFs for two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania.Accid Anal Prev 2017;108:343-53.
[47]Donoghoe MW,Marschner IC.Stable computational methods for additive binomial models with application to adjusted risk differences.Comput Stat Data Anal 2014;80:184-96.
[48]Gomes MJTL,Cunto F,da Silva AR.Geographically weighted negative binomial regression applied to zonal level safety performance models.Accid Anal Prev2017;106:254-61.
[49]Deb K,Pratap A,Agarwal S,Meyarivan T.A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm:NSGA-II.IEEE Trans Evol Comput 2002;6(2):182-97.
[50]Yang N,Kang MW,Schonfeld P,Jha MK.Multi-objective highway alignment optimization incorporating preference information.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2014;40:36-48.
[51]Ale BJM.Tolerable or acceptable:a comparison of risk regulation in the United kingdom and in the Netherlands.Risk Anal 2005;25(2):231-41.
[52]Bottelberghs PH.Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands.J Hazard Mater 2000;71(1-3):59-84.
[53]Jonkman SN,Van Gelder PHAJM,Vrijling JK.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage.J Hazard Mater 2003;99(1):1-30.
[54]Vrijling JK,Van Hengel W,Houben RJ.A framework for risk evaluation.JHazard Mater 1995;43(3):245-61.
[55]Vrijling JK,Van Hengel W,Houben RJ.Acceptable risk as a basis for design.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 1998;59(1):141-50.
[56]Vrijling JK.Probabilistic design of water defense systems in The Netherlands.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2001;74(3):337-44.
[57]Dharmaratne SD,Jayatilleke AU,Jayatilleke AC.Road traffic crashes,injury and fatality trends in Sri Lanka:1938-2013.Bull World Health Organ 2015;93(9):640-7.
[58]St Bernard G,Matthews W.A contemporary analysis of road traffic crashes,fatalities and injuries in Trinidad and Tobago.Inj Control Saf Promot 2003;10(1-2):21-7.
[59]Wang SY,Chi GB,Jing CX,Dong XM,Wu CP,Li LP.Trends in road traffic crashes and associated injury and fatality in the People’s Republic of China,1951-1999.Inj Control Saf Promot 2003;10(1-2):83-7.
[60]Li J,Pollard S,Kendall G,Soane E,Davies G.Optimising risk reduction:an expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2009;94(11):1729-34.
[61]Peden M,Scurfield R,Sleet D,Mohan D,Hyder AA,Jarwan E,et al.World report on road traffic injury prevention.Geneva:World Health Organization;2004.
[62]Kopits E,Cropper M.Traffic fatalities and economic growth.Accid Anal Prev2005;37(1):169-78.
[2]Zhao H,Yin Z,Xiang H,Liao Z,Wang Z.Preliminary study on alterations of altitude road traffic in China from 2006 to 2013.PLoS ONE 2017;12(2):e0171090.
[3]Ma S,Shao C,Zhai R,Liu D.Traffic safety evaluation of the provincial regions in china based on principal component analysis.In:Proceedings of the 2009Second International Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation;Oct 10-11;Changsha,China.New York:IEEE;2009.p.864-7.
[4]Mainwaring G,Olsen TO.Long undersea tunnels:recognizing and overcoming the logistics of operation and construction.Engineering 2018;4(2):249-53.
[5]Montella A,Imbriani LL.Safety performance functions incorporating design consistency variables.Accid Anal Prev 2015;74:133-44.
[6]Ma Z,Zhang H,Chien SIJ,Wang J,Dong C.Predicting expressway crash frequency using a random effect negative binomial model:a case study in China.Accid Anal Prev 2017;98:214-22.
[7]Zhang Y,Chini A.Performance of seven highway construction contracting methods analyzed by project size.Front Eng Manage 2018;5(2):1-11.
[8]Ismail K,Sayed T.Risk-optimal highway design:methodology and case studies.Saf Sci 2012;50(7):1513-21.
[9]Rosey F,Auberlet JM.Trajectory variability:road geometry difficulty indicator.Saf Sci 2012;50(9):1818-28.
[10]Kang MW,Jha MK,Schonfeld P.Applicability of highway alignment optimization models.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2012;21(1):257-86.
[11]Hare W,Hossain S,Lucet Y,Rahman F.Models and strategies for efficiently determining an optimal vertical alignment of roads.Comput Oper Res2014;44:161-73.
[12]Cheng JF,Lee Y.Model for three-dimensional highway alignment.J Transp Eng2006;132(12):913-20.
[13]Jong J-C,Jha MK,Schonfeld P.Preliminary highway design with genetic algorithms and geographic information systems.Computer-Aided Civil Infrastruct Eng 2000;15(4):261-71.
[14]Li W,Pu H,Schonfeld P,Yang J,Zhang H,Wang L,et al.Mountain railway alignment optimization with bidirectional distance transform and genetic algorithm.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 2017;32(8):691-709.
[15]Jha MK,Schonfeld P.A highway alignment optimization model using geographic information systems.Transp Res Part A Policy Pract 2004;38(6):455-81.
[16]Kang MW,Schonfeld P,Yang N.Prescreening and repairing in a genetic algorithm for highway alignment optimization.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng 2009;24(2):109-19.
[17]Maji A,Jha MK.Multi-objective highway alignment optimization using a genetic algorithm.J Adv Transp 2009;43(4):481-504.
[18]Kang MW.An alignment optimization model for a simple highway network[dissertation].College Park:University of Maryland;2008.
[19]Ding L,Xu J.A review of metro construction in China:organization,market,cost,safety and schedule.Front Eng Manage 2017;4(1):4-19.
[20]Hammad A,Itoh Y,Nishido T.Bridge planning using GIS and expert system approach.J Comput Civ Eng 1993;7(3):278-95.
[21]Kim E,Jha MK,Son B.Improving the computational efficiency of highway alignment optimization models through a stepwise genetic algorithms approach.Transp Res Part B:Methodol 2005;39(4):339-60.
[22]Pushak Y,Hare W,Lucet Y.Multiple-path selection for new highway alignments using discrete algorithms.Eur J Oper Res 2016;248(2):415-27.
[23]Shafahi Y,Bagherian M.A customized particle swarm method to solve highway alignment optimization problem.Comput Aided Civ Infrastruct Eng2013;28(1):52-67.
[24]Jong JC,Schonfeld P.An evolutionary model for simultaneously optimizing three-dimensional highway alignments.Transp Res Part B:Methodol 2003;37(2):107-28.
[25]Saha P,Ksaibati K.An optimization model for improving highway safety.JTraffic Transp Eng 2016;3(6):549-58.
[26]Rodriguez-Roman D.A surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm for the selection and design of highway safety and travel time improvement projects.Saf Sci2018;103:305-15.
[27]Kang MW,Shariat S,Jha MK.New highway geometric design methods for minimizing vehicular fuel consumption and improving safety.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2013;31:99-111.
[28]Casal G,Santamarina D,Vázquez-Méndez ME.Optimization of horizontal alignment geometry in road design and reconstruction.Transp Res Part CEmerg Technol 2017;74:261-74.
[29]Ahmed M,Huang H,Abdel-Aty M,Guevara B.Exploring a Bayesian hierarchical approach for developing safety performance functions for a mountainous freeway.Accid Anal Prev 2011;43(4):1581-9.
[30]Zheng Z,Du Z,Yan Q,Xiang Q,Chen G.The impact of rhythm-based visual reference system in long highway tunnels.Saf Sci 2017;95:75-82.
[31]Huang H,Peng Y,Wang J,Luo Q,Li X.Interactive risk analysis on crash injury severity at a mountainous freeway with tunnel groups in China.Accid Anal Prev 2018;111:56-62.
[32]Zhao Y,Li P.A statistical analysis of China’s traffic tunnel development data.Engineering 2018;4(1):3-5.
[33]Kabir S.An overview of fault tree analysis and its application in model based dependability analysis.Expert Syst Appl 2017;77:114-35.
[34]Bobbio A,Portinale L,Minichino M,Ciancamerla E.Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2001;71(3):249-60.
[35]Ng JCW,Sayed T.Effect of geometric design consistency on road safety.Can JCiv Eng 2004;31(2):218-27.
[36]Cheliyan AS,Bhattacharyya SK.Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems.J Ocean Eng Sci 2018;3(1):38-48.
[37]Hirpa D,Hare W,Lucet Y,Pushak Y,Tesfamariam S.A bi-objective optimization framework for three-dimensional road alignment design.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2016;65:61-78.
[38]Cafiso S,La Cava G.Driving performance,alignment consistency,and road safety:real-world experiment.Transp Res Rec 2009;2102(1):1-8.
[39]Da Costa JO,Jacques MAP,Soares FEC,Freitas EF.Integration of geometric consistency contributory factors in three-leg junctions collision prediction models of Portuguese two-lane national highways.Accid Anal Prev2016;86:59-67.
[40]AASHTO.Highway Safety Manual.Washington:AASHTO;2010.
[41]Brimley B,Saito M,Schultz G.Calibration of Highway Safety Manual safety performance function:development of new models for rural two-lane twoway highways.Transp Res Rec 2012;2279(1):82-9.
[42]Venkataraman NS,Ulfarsson GF,Shankar VN.Extending the Highway Safety Manual(HSM)framework for traffic safety performance evaluation.Saf Sci2014;64:146-54.
[43]U.S.Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration.Interactive Highway Safety Design Model(IHSDM).Overview.Version14.0.0[software].2018 Sep[cited 2018 Oct 24].Available from:https://highways.dot.gov/safety/interactive-highway-safety-design-model/interactive-highway-safety-design-model-ihsdm.
[44]AASHTO.Safety analyst overview.[Software].2018[cited 2018 Oct 24].Available from:http://www.safetyanalyst.org.
[45]U.S.Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration.Crash modification factors clearinghouse.2018[cited 2018 Nov 20].Available from:http://www.cmfclearinghouse.org.
[46]Li L,Gayah VV,Donnell ET.Development of regionalized SPFs for two-lane rural roads in Pennsylvania.Accid Anal Prev 2017;108:343-53.
[47]Donoghoe MW,Marschner IC.Stable computational methods for additive binomial models with application to adjusted risk differences.Comput Stat Data Anal 2014;80:184-96.
[48]Gomes MJTL,Cunto F,da Silva AR.Geographically weighted negative binomial regression applied to zonal level safety performance models.Accid Anal Prev2017;106:254-61.
[49]Deb K,Pratap A,Agarwal S,Meyarivan T.A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm:NSGA-II.IEEE Trans Evol Comput 2002;6(2):182-97.
[50]Yang N,Kang MW,Schonfeld P,Jha MK.Multi-objective highway alignment optimization incorporating preference information.Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2014;40:36-48.
[51]Ale BJM.Tolerable or acceptable:a comparison of risk regulation in the United kingdom and in the Netherlands.Risk Anal 2005;25(2):231-41.
[52]Bottelberghs PH.Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands.J Hazard Mater 2000;71(1-3):59-84.
[53]Jonkman SN,Van Gelder PHAJM,Vrijling JK.An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage.J Hazard Mater 2003;99(1):1-30.
[54]Vrijling JK,Van Hengel W,Houben RJ.A framework for risk evaluation.JHazard Mater 1995;43(3):245-61.
[55]Vrijling JK,Van Hengel W,Houben RJ.Acceptable risk as a basis for design.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 1998;59(1):141-50.
[56]Vrijling JK.Probabilistic design of water defense systems in The Netherlands.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2001;74(3):337-44.
[57]Dharmaratne SD,Jayatilleke AU,Jayatilleke AC.Road traffic crashes,injury and fatality trends in Sri Lanka:1938-2013.Bull World Health Organ 2015;93(9):640-7.
[58]St Bernard G,Matthews W.A contemporary analysis of road traffic crashes,fatalities and injuries in Trinidad and Tobago.Inj Control Saf Promot 2003;10(1-2):21-7.
[59]Wang SY,Chi GB,Jing CX,Dong XM,Wu CP,Li LP.Trends in road traffic crashes and associated injury and fatality in the People’s Republic of China,1951-1999.Inj Control Saf Promot 2003;10(1-2):83-7.
[60]Li J,Pollard S,Kendall G,Soane E,Davies G.Optimising risk reduction:an expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2009;94(11):1729-34.
[61]Peden M,Scurfield R,Sleet D,Mohan D,Hyder AA,Jarwan E,et al.World report on road traffic injury prevention.Geneva:World Health Organization;2004.
[62]Kopits E,Cropper M.Traffic fatalities and economic growth.Accid Anal Prev2005;37(1):169-78.