1961～2012年银川浅层地温变化及其对气候变化的响应
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摘要
利用银川市1961～2012年逐月平均气温和逐月0～20 cm浅层地温资料,采用统计学和功率谱分析等方法分析了过去52年银川市浅层地温的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)1961～2012年银川市各层年平均地温均呈显著升高趋势,其中0 cm地温升温速率最大,为(0.477±0.126)℃(10 a)~(-1)(95%置信区间,下同),10 cm地温升温速率最小,变化速率为(0.395±0.117)℃(10 a)~(-1);(2)1961年以来银川各层年与季平均地温多以2～4 a周期为主,其周期可能受海气相互作用及平流层准2 a震荡的影响;(3)银川浅层地温对气温变化极为敏感,年平均气温每升高1℃,相当于0 cm、5 cm、10 cm和20 cm年平均地温分别升高(1.095±0.154)℃、(0.970±0.169)℃、(0.911±0.159)℃和(0.945±0.173)℃。
Based on the data of monthly mean air temperature and shallow ground temperature at the depth of 0-20 cm from 1961 to 2012 in Yinchuan City, the variation characteristics of shallow ground temperature and its response to climate change were analyzed by using statistical and power spectral analysis methods. The main results were as follows:(1) During the past 52 years, annual mean shallow ground temperature at each layer showed a significantly warming trend. The maximum rate was found at the depth of 0 cm with a value of 0.477 ± 0.126 ℃(10 a)~(-1) and the minimum rate was found at the depth of 10 cm with a value of 0.395 ± 0.117 ℃(10 a)~(-1).(2) The periodicity of annual mean shallow ground temperature at each layer was 2 a to 4 a over the past 52 years, and its periodicity might be influenced by ocean-atmosphere interaction and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.(3) The shallow ground temperature was significantly correlated with the air temperature in Yinchuan. The annual mean ground temperature at0, 5, 10 and 20 cm depth was increased by 1.095 ± 0.154 ℃, 0.970 ± 0.169 ℃, 0.911 ± 0.159 ℃ and 0.945 ±0.173 ℃ when the annual mean air temperature was increased by 1 ℃.
Based on the data of monthly mean air temperature and shallow ground temperature at the depth of 0-20 cm from 1961 to 2012 in Yinchuan City, the variation characteristics of shallow ground temperature and its response to climate change were analyzed by using statistical and power spectral analysis methods. The main results were as follows:(1) During the past 52 years, annual mean shallow ground temperature at each layer showed a significantly warming trend. The maximum rate was found at the depth of 0 cm with a value of 0.477 ± 0.126 ℃(10 a)~(-1) and the minimum rate was found at the depth of 10 cm with a value of 0.395 ± 0.117 ℃(10 a)~(-1).(2) The periodicity of annual mean shallow ground temperature at each layer was 2 a to 4 a over the past 52 years, and its periodicity might be influenced by ocean-atmosphere interaction and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.(3) The shallow ground temperature was significantly correlated with the air temperature in Yinchuan. The annual mean ground temperature at0, 5, 10 and 20 cm depth was increased by 1.095 ± 0.154 ℃, 0.970 ± 0.169 ℃, 0.911 ± 0.159 ℃ and 0.945 ±0.173 ℃ when the annual mean air temperature was increased by 1 ℃.
引文
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[16]闫军辉,刘浩龙,葛全胜,等.1906~2015年武汉市温度变化序列重建与初步分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(9):1176-1183.
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[2]《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[3]大气科学名词审定委员会.大气科学名词(第三版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.
[4]中国气象局.地面气象观测规范[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
[5]王佳琳,潘志华,韩国琳,等.1961~2010年中国0 cm地温变化特征及其与气温变化的关系[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1733-1741.
[6]李帅,王萍,陈莉,等.黑龙江省春季浅层(0~20 cm)地温变化特征及预报[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):55-62.
[7]宁和平,张建勇,方锋,等.黄河上游玛曲地区浅层地温对气候变暖的响应[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(5):802-807.
[8]杜军,李春,廖健,等.拉萨近45年浅层地温的变化特征[J].干旱区地理,2007,30(6):826-831.
[9]杜军,胡军,罗布次仁,等.西藏浅层地温对气候变暖的响应[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(5):745-751.
[10]张焕平,张占峰,汪青春.近50年西宁深层地温变化趋势分析[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(27):13493-13494,13572.
[11]高学芹,袁静.1980~2014年潍坊市深层地温对气候变化的响应[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(28):201-206.
[12]吴滨.地温与登陆及影响福建的热带气旋年频数的相关分析[J].海洋预报,2000,17(2):34-38.
[13]王春玲,申双和,王润元,等.天水地区冬春地温变化与冬小麦生长和产量的相关分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(5):41-45.
[14]张智,林莉,陈晓娟.银川平原气候变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(6):68-72.
[15]夏贵菊,何彤慧,赵永全,等.银川平原芦苇生态特征与土壤因子的关系[J].土壤通报,2015,46(1):99-104.
[16]闫军辉,刘浩龙,葛全胜,等.1906~2015年武汉市温度变化序列重建与初步分析[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(9):1176-1183.
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第2版)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[18]闫军辉,周晓,刘明华,等.1951~2015年信阳极端温度事件变化及其对全球变暖的响应[J].信阳师范学院学院(自然科学版),2017,30(1):82-86.
[19]强玉柱,蒲金涌,刘扬,等.天水市近50年浅层地温变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(35):317-322.
[20]JONES,P.D.,LISTER,D.H.,OSBORN,T.J.,et al.Hemispheric and large-scale land surface air temperature variations:an extensive revision and an update to 2010[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2012,117(D5127):1-29.
[21]张翠华,张文煜,郭立平.河北石家庄浅层地温变化特征[J].干旱气象,2013,31(1):78-81.