基于多因素叠加计算权重法的苏锡常地裂缝危险性预测
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摘要
由于长期过量开采地下水,苏州、无锡和常州(苏锡常)的局部地区地裂缝发育,在深层地下水禁采十多年后的今天有些地裂缝还在发展。地裂缝的发育及发展受到诸多因素的影响,其具体力学机制尚不明确。为了查明影响地裂缝发育的因素、确定各因素对地裂缝的影响程度,本文在苏锡常地裂缝发育现状的基础上,利用基于确定性系数计算权重法对苏锡常地裂缝发育危险性进行预测分区。模型考虑了基岩埋深、基岩坡度、累计地面沉降量、沉降坡度、第二含水层厚度、第二含水层厚度变化梯度、第二含水层水位降深、第四纪沉积相等8个主要影响因素,分析结果显示苏锡常地区北部地裂缝易发,东南部发生地裂缝的危险性较小。计算结果与苏锡常地裂缝的分布及发育情况基本一致,验证了该方法在地裂缝预测方面的有效性。本研究对苏锡常地区地下水开采及城市建设规划具有一定的指导意义。
The cities of Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou( the Su-Xi-Chang Cities) have ground fissures in some regions due to the long-term over exploitation of groundwater. Although groundwater extraction in this area has been prohibited for more than ten years,some ground fissures are still active. The development of ground fissures is affected by many factors and the mechanism is still not clear. In order to find out the influence factors of ground fissures,and then to determine the influence of each factor,the potential risk of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang area is predicted based on multi-factor overlay method. This prediction is on the basis of the current status of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang cities. Eight influencing factors are considered. They are bedrock depth,bedrock slope,cumulative land subsidence,subsidence slope,the second confined aquifer thickness,the second confined aquifer thickness gradient,hydraulic head reduction at the second confined aquifer,and quaternary sedimentary facies. The prediction results show that the ground fissures are prone to occur in the northern part of theSu-Xi-Chang cities,and the potential of ground fissures occurring in the southeast is relatively small. The results are primarily coincident with field investigations on ground fissures at the study area,which verifies the validity of the method. The predicted results of ground fissure risk are helpful for the planning of groundwater exploitation and urban construction.
The cities of Suzhou,Wuxi and Changzhou( the Su-Xi-Chang Cities) have ground fissures in some regions due to the long-term over exploitation of groundwater. Although groundwater extraction in this area has been prohibited for more than ten years,some ground fissures are still active. The development of ground fissures is affected by many factors and the mechanism is still not clear. In order to find out the influence factors of ground fissures,and then to determine the influence of each factor,the potential risk of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang area is predicted based on multi-factor overlay method. This prediction is on the basis of the current status of ground fissures in the Su-Xi-Chang cities. Eight influencing factors are considered. They are bedrock depth,bedrock slope,cumulative land subsidence,subsidence slope,the second confined aquifer thickness,the second confined aquifer thickness gradient,hydraulic head reduction at the second confined aquifer,and quaternary sedimentary facies. The prediction results show that the ground fissures are prone to occur in the northern part of theSu-Xi-Chang cities,and the potential of ground fissures occurring in the southeast is relatively small. The results are primarily coincident with field investigations on ground fissures at the study area,which verifies the validity of the method. The predicted results of ground fissure risk are helpful for the planning of groundwater exploitation and urban construction.
引文
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Wang Z C,Zhang Y.2012.Advances of research on the earth fissure induced by groundwater over-exploitation[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,39(2):88-93.
Wu Z Y,Yu Q,Zhang Y.2003.Forming process of earth fissure hazard in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,30(1):67-72.
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Yu J,Wang X M,Su X S,et al.2004.The mechanism analysis on ground fissure disaster formation in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),34(2):236-241.
Yu J,Yu Q,Zong K H,et al.2002.Environmental geology survey evaluation in Changjiang delta[R].Nanjing:Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province.
Yu W P,Sun S L,Wang T Y,et al.2014.Evaluation of ground fissure disasters using index of entropyand logistic regression models in GIS[J].Acta Agricultural Universitatis Jiangxiensis,36(4):918-924.
Zhang L G,Deng Y H,Xue J,et al.2017.Preliminary research on dynamic response characteristics of microtremor at ground fissure sites-illustrated with F6ground fissure in Xi'an[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(3):784-793.
Zhu J Q,Jiao X,Yu J,et al.2008.Evaluation of earth fissures based on GA-ANN coupling model in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,35(4):106-110.
Zhu X X,Yu J,Wu J Q.2006.Prediction of ground fissures in SuzhouWuxi-Changzhou area based on ANN analysis[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,17(2):28-32.
Zong K H,Sun G X,Jiang B.2004.Investigation report of earth fissure in Su-Xi-Chang area[R].Nanjing:Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province.
冯杭建,周爱国,唐小明,等.2017.基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,25(2):436-446.
焦珣,苏小四,于军.2009.苏锡常地裂缝危险性分区[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),39(1):142-146.
刘聪,袁晓军,朱锦旗.2004.苏锡常地裂缝[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社.
刘方翠,祁生文,彭建兵,等.2016.北京市地裂缝分布与发育规律[J].工程地质学报,24(6):1269-1277.
刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.2015.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):92-97.
汪名鹏.2009.苏锡常地区主要地质灾害及防治措施[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,20(1):60-65.
王哲成,张云.2012.地下水超采引起的地裂缝灾害的研究进展[J].水文地质工程地质,39(2):88-93.
伍洲云,余勤,张云.2003.苏锡常地区地裂缝形成过程[J].水文地质工程地质,30(1):67-72.
伍洲云.2004.苏锡常地区地裂缝灾害危险性评价与预测[J].水文地质工程地质,31(1):28-31.
于军,王晓梅,苏小四,等.2004.苏锡常地区地裂缝地质灾害形成机理分析[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),34(2):236-241.
于军,余勤,宗开红.2002.长江三角洲苏锡常地区环境地质调查评价[R].南京:江苏省地质调查研究院.
余文平,孙树林,王天宇,等.2014.基于GIS熵指数与Logistic回归模型的地裂缝灾害评价研究[J].江西农业大学学报,36(4):918-924.
张磊刚,邓亚虹,薛捷,等.2017.地裂缝场地地脉动响应特征初探---以西安F6地裂缝为例[J].工程地质学报,25(3):784-793.
朱锦旗,焦珣,于军,等.2008.基于GA-ANN的苏锡常地裂缝危险性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,35(4):106-110.
朱兴贤,于军,武健强.2006.基于ANN的苏锡常地裂缝预测研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,17(2):28-32.
宗开红,孙国曦,蒋波.2004.苏锡常地裂缝调查报告[R].南京:江苏省地质调查研究院.
Feng J H,Zhou A G,Tang X M,et al.2017.Susceptibility analysis of factors controlling rainfall-triggered landslides using certainty factor method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(2):426-446.
Holzer T L,Pampeyan E H.1981.Earth fissures and localized differential subsidence[J].Water Resources Research,17(1):223-227.
Jiao X,Su X S,Yu J.2009.Fatalness zoning of earth fissure hazard in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),39(1):142-146.
Liu C,Yuan X J,Zhu J Q.2004.Ground fissures in Suzhou Wuxi Changzhou[M].Wuhan:China University of Geosciences Press.
Liu F C,Qi S W,Peng J B,et al.2016.Characters of the ground fissures developing in Beijing[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,24(6):1269-1277.
Liu Y H,Liu C Z,Tang C,et al.2015.CF-based multi-factor overlay method to determine weights of the factors for geo-hazards[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,26(1):92-97.
Pacheco-Martínez J,Hernandez-Marín M,Burbey T J,et al.2013.Land subsidence and ground failure associated to groundwater exploitation in the Aguascalientes Valley,México[J].Engineering Geology,164:172-186.
Peng J B,Xu J S,Ma R Y,et al.2016.Characteristics and mechanism of the Longyao ground fissure on North China Plain,China[J].Engineering Geology,214:136-146.
Shortliffe E H,Buchanan G G.1975.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,23(2):351-379.
Wang G Y,You G,Shi B,et al.2010.Earth fissures in Jiangsu Province,China and geological investigation of Hetang earth fissure[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,60(1):35-43.
Wang M P.2009.Main geological disasters and prevention measure in Su-Xi-Chang region[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,20(1):60-65.
Wang Z C,Zhang Y.2012.Advances of research on the earth fissure induced by groundwater over-exploitation[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,39(2):88-93.
Wu Z Y,Yu Q,Zhang Y.2003.Forming process of earth fissure hazard in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,30(1):67-72.
Wu Z Y.2004.GIS-aid evaluation and prediction on earth fissure hazard in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,31(1):28-31.
Yu J,Wang X M,Su X S,et al.2004.The mechanism analysis on ground fissure disaster formation in Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Journal of Jilin University(Earth Science Edition),34(2):236-241.
Yu J,Yu Q,Zong K H,et al.2002.Environmental geology survey evaluation in Changjiang delta[R].Nanjing:Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province.
Yu W P,Sun S L,Wang T Y,et al.2014.Evaluation of ground fissure disasters using index of entropyand logistic regression models in GIS[J].Acta Agricultural Universitatis Jiangxiensis,36(4):918-924.
Zhang L G,Deng Y H,Xue J,et al.2017.Preliminary research on dynamic response characteristics of microtremor at ground fissure sites-illustrated with F6ground fissure in Xi'an[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(3):784-793.
Zhu J Q,Jiao X,Yu J,et al.2008.Evaluation of earth fissures based on GA-ANN coupling model in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,35(4):106-110.
Zhu X X,Yu J,Wu J Q.2006.Prediction of ground fissures in SuzhouWuxi-Changzhou area based on ANN analysis[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,17(2):28-32.
Zong K H,Sun G X,Jiang B.2004.Investigation report of earth fissure in Su-Xi-Chang area[R].Nanjing:Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province.
冯杭建,周爱国,唐小明,等.2017.基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J].工程地质学报,25(2):436-446.
焦珣,苏小四,于军.2009.苏锡常地裂缝危险性分区[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),39(1):142-146.
刘聪,袁晓军,朱锦旗.2004.苏锡常地裂缝[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社.
刘方翠,祁生文,彭建兵,等.2016.北京市地裂缝分布与发育规律[J].工程地质学报,24(6):1269-1277.
刘艳辉,刘传正,唐灿,等.2015.基于确定性系数模型的地质灾害多因子权重计算方法[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,26(1):92-97.
汪名鹏.2009.苏锡常地区主要地质灾害及防治措施[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,20(1):60-65.
王哲成,张云.2012.地下水超采引起的地裂缝灾害的研究进展[J].水文地质工程地质,39(2):88-93.
伍洲云,余勤,张云.2003.苏锡常地区地裂缝形成过程[J].水文地质工程地质,30(1):67-72.
伍洲云.2004.苏锡常地区地裂缝灾害危险性评价与预测[J].水文地质工程地质,31(1):28-31.
于军,王晓梅,苏小四,等.2004.苏锡常地区地裂缝地质灾害形成机理分析[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),34(2):236-241.
于军,余勤,宗开红.2002.长江三角洲苏锡常地区环境地质调查评价[R].南京:江苏省地质调查研究院.
余文平,孙树林,王天宇,等.2014.基于GIS熵指数与Logistic回归模型的地裂缝灾害评价研究[J].江西农业大学学报,36(4):918-924.
张磊刚,邓亚虹,薛捷,等.2017.地裂缝场地地脉动响应特征初探---以西安F6地裂缝为例[J].工程地质学报,25(3):784-793.
朱锦旗,焦珣,于军,等.2008.基于GA-ANN的苏锡常地裂缝危险性评价[J].水文地质工程地质,35(4):106-110.
朱兴贤,于军,武健强.2006.基于ANN的苏锡常地裂缝预测研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,17(2):28-32.
宗开红,孙国曦,蒋波.2004.苏锡常地裂缝调查报告[R].南京:江苏省地质调查研究院.