1960—2014年淮河流域极端降水发生时间的时空特征
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摘要
利用淮河流域25个分布相对均匀站点的逐日降水资料,借助线性趋势、圆形统计、EOF分析等方法对1960—2014年流域的极端降水发生时间的时空特征进行分析。研究表明:(1)淮河流域极端降水发生时间主要集中在7月中下旬,并表现出明显的年际振荡。流域平均的极端降水发生时间表现出提前趋势,但未达到0. 05显著性水平。发生时间集中程度随年份上升,上升趋势达到了0. 05显著性水平。综合分析表明,流域7月份发生极端降水的可能性增大。(2)流域极端降水发生时间在空间上由西南向东北逐渐推迟,大部分站点发生时间呈微弱提前的趋势,该分布规律与梅雨和台风的影响有关,而提前趋势与20世纪90年代以来我国主雨带的年代际北移有关。(3)流域极端降水发生时间的EOF分析结果显示,第一模态空间典型场呈"西北-东南"反位相分布;第二模态空间典型场呈一致性分布,分别揭示了流域极端降水发生时间在空间上的分异特征和近似一致性分布特征。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 stations which are almost uniformly distributed in the Huai River basin during 1960—2014,the spatio-temporal characteristics of the occurrence timing in the Huai River basin were analyzed by using the methods of linear trend method,circular statistics,EOF analysis and so on. The main results are listed as follows:(1) The occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin mainly concentrates in the mid and late July every year,and the time series of the occurrence timing shows obvious interannual oscillation. The time series of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin shows an advancing trend on the numerical value,but the advancing trend of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation does not reach 0. 05 significant level. The time series of the Concentration degree of the occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin rises with time rising,and the rising trend has reached 0. 05 significant level by using the test of significance. All in all,the possibility of extreme precipitation happens in the July is increasing.(2) In space,the occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin is gradually postponed from southwest to northeast in the Huai River basin,and most of the sites in the Huai River basin showthe slightly advancing linear trend but do not reach 0. 05 significant level; the spatial distribution of Huai River basin is relevant to the changes of Meiyu and typhoon of Huai River basin,while to some degree the advancing trend may be due to the fact that the main rain belt of China has been moving northward from the original position since the 1990 s.(3) The EOF analysis results of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation indicates:the typical spatial field of the first mode of the occurrence timing shows the anti-phase distribution between the northwest and the southeast in the Huai River basin,while the time coefficient series of the first mode shows the declining trend which do not reach 0. 05 significant level; the typical spatial field of the second mode of the occurrence timing is uniformly distributed in the Huai River basin,while the time coefficient series of the second mode shows the rising trend which do not reach 0. 05 significant level. And the results reveals the differential and approximately consistent spatial characteristics of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin.
Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 stations which are almost uniformly distributed in the Huai River basin during 1960—2014,the spatio-temporal characteristics of the occurrence timing in the Huai River basin were analyzed by using the methods of linear trend method,circular statistics,EOF analysis and so on. The main results are listed as follows:(1) The occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin mainly concentrates in the mid and late July every year,and the time series of the occurrence timing shows obvious interannual oscillation. The time series of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin shows an advancing trend on the numerical value,but the advancing trend of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation does not reach 0. 05 significant level. The time series of the Concentration degree of the occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin rises with time rising,and the rising trend has reached 0. 05 significant level by using the test of significance. All in all,the possibility of extreme precipitation happens in the July is increasing.(2) In space,the occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin is gradually postponed from southwest to northeast in the Huai River basin,and most of the sites in the Huai River basin showthe slightly advancing linear trend but do not reach 0. 05 significant level; the spatial distribution of Huai River basin is relevant to the changes of Meiyu and typhoon of Huai River basin,while to some degree the advancing trend may be due to the fact that the main rain belt of China has been moving northward from the original position since the 1990 s.(3) The EOF analysis results of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation indicates:the typical spatial field of the first mode of the occurrence timing shows the anti-phase distribution between the northwest and the southeast in the Huai River basin,while the time coefficient series of the first mode shows the declining trend which do not reach 0. 05 significant level; the typical spatial field of the second mode of the occurrence timing is uniformly distributed in the Huai River basin,while the time coefficient series of the second mode shows the rising trend which do not reach 0. 05 significant level. And the results reveals the differential and approximately consistent spatial characteristics of occurrence timing of extreme precipitation in the Huai River basin.
引文
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佘敦先,夏军,张永勇,等,2011.近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J].地理学报,66(9):1200-1210.DOI:10.11821/xb201109005.
申红艳,陈丽娟,胡泊,等,2017.西北中部夏季降水主要空间型及环流特征[J].高原气象,36(2):455-467.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00139.
司东,丁一汇,柳艳菊,2010.中国梅雨雨带年代际尺度上的北移及其原因[J].科学通报,55(1):68-73.
王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等,2017.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象,36(2):395-406.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00121.
许吟隆,黄晓莹,张勇,等,2005.中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析[J].气候变化研究进展,1(2):80-83.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.02.007.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等,2008.中国西北极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析[J].中国沙漠,28(1):178-184.DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2007.04.014.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
张英华,李艳,李德帅,等,2016.中国东部夏季极端高温的空间分布特征及其环流型[J].高原气象,35(2):469-483.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00159.
赵威,赵威,韦志刚,等,2016.1964-2013年中国北方农牧交错带温度和降水时空演变特征[J].高原气象,35(4):979-988.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00079.
Katz R W,Brow n B G,1992.Extreme events in a changing climate:Variability is more important than averages[J].Climatic Change,21(3):289-302.DOI:10.1007/bf00139728.
Koutroulis A G,Tsanis I K,Daliakopoulos I N,2010.Seasonality of floods and their hydrometeorologic characteristics in the island of Crete[J].Journal of Hydrology,394(1-2):90-100.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.025.
Liu H W,Zhou T J,Zhu Y X,et al,2012.The strengthening East A-sia summer monsoon since the early 1990s[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,57(13):1553-1558.DOI:10.1007/s11434-012-4991-8.
M araun D,Rust H W,Osborn T J,2009.The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the United Kingdom:a model based on extreme value statistics[J].International Journal of Climatology,29(12):1731-1744.DOI:10.1002/joc.1811.
Jones M R,Fow ler H J,Kilsby C G,et al,2013.An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK betw een1961 and 2009[J].International Journal of Climatology,33(5):1178-1194.DOI:10.1002/joc.3503.
Parajka J,KohnováS,M erz R,et al,2009.Comparative analysis of the seasonality of hydrological characteristic in Slovakia and Austria[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal/Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques,54(3):456-473.DOI:10.1623/hysj.54.3.456.
顾万龙,王纪军,朱业玉,等,2010.淮河流域降水量年内分配变化规律分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,19(4):426-431.
顾西辉,张强,孔冬冬,2016.中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应[J].地理学报,71(5):718-730.DOI:10.11821/dlxb201605002.
胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇,2007.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,22(10):1066-1075.DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2007.10.011.
李建,宇如聪,孙溦,2013.从小时尺度考察中国中东部极端降水的持续性和季节特征[J].气象学报,71(4):652-659.DOI:10.11676/qxxb2013.052.
陆志刚,张旭晖,霍金兰,等,2011.1960-2008年淮河流域极端降水演变特征[J].气象科学,31(增刊l):77-83.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.00**.
任国玉,任玉玉,战云健,等,2015.中国大陆降水时空变异规律---Ⅱ.现代变化趋势[J].水科学进展,26(4):451-465.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.04.001.
佘敦先,夏军,张永勇,等,2011.近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J].地理学报,66(9):1200-1210.DOI:10.11821/xb201109005.
申红艳,陈丽娟,胡泊,等,2017.西北中部夏季降水主要空间型及环流特征[J].高原气象,36(2):455-467.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00139.
司东,丁一汇,柳艳菊,2010.中国梅雨雨带年代际尺度上的北移及其原因[J].科学通报,55(1):68-73.
王丹云,吕世华,韩博,等,2017.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象,36(2):395-406.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00121.
许吟隆,黄晓莹,张勇,等,2005.中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析[J].气候变化研究进展,1(2):80-83.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2005.02.007.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等,2008.中国西北极端降水事件年内非均匀性特征分析[J].中国沙漠,28(1):178-184.DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-3037.2007.04.014.
杨玮,徐敏,周顺武,等,2017.江淮流域6-7月极端强降水事件时空变化及环流异常[J].高原气象,36(3):718-735.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00047.
张英华,李艳,李德帅,等,2016.中国东部夏季极端高温的空间分布特征及其环流型[J].高原气象,35(2):469-483.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00159.
赵威,赵威,韦志刚,等,2016.1964-2013年中国北方农牧交错带温度和降水时空演变特征[J].高原气象,35(4):979-988.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00079.