不同时间尺度小流域径流变化及其归因分析
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摘要
流域径流的变化及其原因的研究,是森林水文领域的一个重要的科学问题。当前,大部分研究基于年尺度定量分析了流域径流变化及其影响因素的贡献率,而季节尺度上的研究较少。因此,季节尺度上径流变化的归因分析值得深入研究。基于彭冲涧小流域1983—2014年降水、径流等水文气象资料,通过Mann-Kendall检验法对降水、径流序列进行突变分析,采用累积量斜率变化率比较法计算季节及年尺度上降水变化、蒸发散和植被恢复对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:2003年为降水与径流的一致突变点;春、夏、秋、冬季及年降水变化的贡献率分别为50.88%、42.60%、-10.39%、-3.28%和31.26%,蒸发散的贡献率分别为32.89%、40.71%、29.33%、47.43%和42.64%,植被恢复的贡献率分别为16.23%、16.69%、81.06%、55.85%和26.10%。季节尺度上,春、夏季,降水变化和蒸发散是径流深减少的主要原因,而秋、冬季,植被恢复居主导地位;年尺度上,蒸发散对径流深减少的贡献率最大。该研究揭示了彭冲涧小流域近30年来径流变化规律以及不同时间尺度上影响径流的主要驱动因子,为流域水资源合理配置和管理提供科学依据。
Studying runoff change, and its causes is an important scientific issue in forest hydrology. Presently, most studies have quantitatively analyzed the contribution rate of runoff change and its influencing factors based on annual scales, whereas few studies have been conducted on seasonal scales. Therefore, the attribution analysis of runoff change on a seasonal scale needs further study. Based on the daily precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff from 1983—2014 in Pengchongjian, a small watershed, a Mann-Kendall test method was applied to analyze the abrupt point of annual precipitation and runoff. Ultimately, the slope change ratio of accumulative quantities(SCRAQ) method was used to separate the contribution rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration between annual and seasonal runoff. The results indicated that: a consistent abrupt point of year 2003 was found both for annual precipitation and runoff; the results from the SCRAQ method suggested that in both season and annual scales, the decreasing runoff depth could be ascribed to variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration. Specifically, precipitation explained 50.88%, 42.60%,-10.39%,-3.28%, and 31.26%, evapotranspiration explained 32.89%, 40.71%, 29.33%, 47.43%, and 42.64%, and vegetation explained 16.23%, 16.69%, 81.06%, 55.85%, and 26.10% of the decreasing mean runoff depth in the spring, summer, autumn, winter, and whole year, respectively. We concluded that precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors regulating the runoff variation in spring and summer, vegetation restoration played a major role affecting runoff variation in autumn and winter, and evapotranspiration contributed the most on an annual scale. This study revealed runoff changes and the main driving factors at different time scales in the Pengchongjian watershed over the past 30 years; thus, provided a scientific basis for the basin rational allocation and management of water resources.
Studying runoff change, and its causes is an important scientific issue in forest hydrology. Presently, most studies have quantitatively analyzed the contribution rate of runoff change and its influencing factors based on annual scales, whereas few studies have been conducted on seasonal scales. Therefore, the attribution analysis of runoff change on a seasonal scale needs further study. Based on the daily precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff from 1983—2014 in Pengchongjian, a small watershed, a Mann-Kendall test method was applied to analyze the abrupt point of annual precipitation and runoff. Ultimately, the slope change ratio of accumulative quantities(SCRAQ) method was used to separate the contribution rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration between annual and seasonal runoff. The results indicated that: a consistent abrupt point of year 2003 was found both for annual precipitation and runoff; the results from the SCRAQ method suggested that in both season and annual scales, the decreasing runoff depth could be ascribed to variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and vegetation restoration. Specifically, precipitation explained 50.88%, 42.60%,-10.39%,-3.28%, and 31.26%, evapotranspiration explained 32.89%, 40.71%, 29.33%, 47.43%, and 42.64%, and vegetation explained 16.23%, 16.69%, 81.06%, 55.85%, and 26.10% of the decreasing mean runoff depth in the spring, summer, autumn, winter, and whole year, respectively. We concluded that precipitation and evapotranspiration were the key factors regulating the runoff variation in spring and summer, vegetation restoration played a major role affecting runoff variation in autumn and winter, and evapotranspiration contributed the most on an annual scale. This study revealed runoff changes and the main driving factors at different time scales in the Pengchongjian watershed over the past 30 years; thus, provided a scientific basis for the basin rational allocation and management of water resources.
引文
[1] 叶许春,张奇,刘健,李丽娇,郭华.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流变化的影响研究.冰川冻土,2009,31(5):835- 842.
[2] 王西琴,张远,张艳会.渭河上游天然径流变化及其自然与人为因素影响贡献量.自然资源学报,2006,21(6):981- 990.
[3] 夏军,王渺林.长江上游流域径流变化与分布式水文模拟.资源科学,2008,30(7):962- 967.
[4] 刘剑宇,张强,邓晓宇,慈晖,陈晓宏.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析.湖泊科学,2016,28(2):432- 443.
[5] 丁婧祎,赵文武,王军,房学宁.降水和植被变化对径流影响的尺度效应——以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区为例.地理科学进展,2015,34(8):1039- 1051.
[6] 郭爱军,畅建霞,黄强,孙佳宁.渭河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的定量分析.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014,42(8):212- 220.
[7] 刘贵花,齐述华,朱婧瑄,熊梦雅,王点.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析.湖泊科学,2016,28(3):682- 690.
[8] Zeng S D,Xia J,Du H.Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):401- 413.
[9] Jiang S H,Ren L L,Yong B,Singh V P,Yang X L,Yuan F.Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods.Hydrological Processes,2011,25(16):2492- 2505.
[10] Ahn K H,Merwade V.Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow.Journal of Hydrology,2014,515:257- 266.
[11] Ye X C,Zhang Q,Liu J,Li X H,Xu C Y.Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment,China.Journal of Hydrology,2013,494:83- 95.
[12] 夏智宏,刘敏,王苗,王凯,秦鹏程.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识.湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515- 521.
[13] 李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析——以潮白河为例.地理学报,2000,55(3):309- 317.
[14] 徐海量,叶茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探.地理科学,2007,27(2):219- 224.
[15] 康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,杨明金.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析.资源科学,2009,31(3):501- 508.
[16] 王金花,康玲玲,赵广福.基于Mann-Kendall法的水沙系列突变点研究.人民黄河,2010,32(1):43- 43,45- 45.
[17] 王随继,闫云霞,颜明,赵晓坤.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析——累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用.地理学报,2012,67(3):388- 397.
[18] 王彦君,王随继,苏腾.降水和人类活动对松花江径流量变化的贡献率.自然资源学报,2015,30(2):304- 314.
[19] 庞树江,王晓燕.密云水库流域入库径流量变化特征及归因研究.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(9):144- 148.
[20] 代稳,吕殿青,李景保,王金凤.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析.冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488- 497.
[21] 程俊翔,徐力刚,姜加虎,谭志强,喻崎雯,范宏翔.洞庭湖流域径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究.农业环境科学学报,2016,35(11):2146- 2153.
[22] 杨传训,张正栋,朱汝雄,万露文,叶晨,张杰.华南湿热山地小流域径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以宁江为例.水土保持研究,2017,24(5):113- 119.
[23] 杨志刚,卓玛,路红亚,达瓦次仁,马鹏飞,周刊社.1961—2010年西藏雅鲁藏布江流域降水量变化特征及其对径流的影响分析.冰川冻土,2014,36(1):166- 172.
[24] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,廖剑宇,江源,康慕谊.近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究.资源科学,2013,35(3):514- 520.
[25] 于文颖,周广胜,迟道才,周莉,何奇瑾.盘锦湿地芦苇(Phragmites communis)群落蒸发散主导影响因子.生态学报,2008,28(9):4594- 4601.
[26] 孙悦,李栋梁,朱拥军.渭河径流变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应研究进展.干旱气象,2013,31(2):396- 405.
[27] 唐丽霞,张志强,王新杰,王盛萍,查同刚.晋西黄土高原丘陵沟壑区清水河流域径流对土地利用与气候变化的响应.植物生态学报,2010,34(7):800- 810.
[28] Wu L H,Wang S J,Bai X Y,Luo W J,Tian Y C,Zeng C.Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed,SW China.Science of the Total Environment,2017,601- 602:1449- 1465.
[29] 段文军,李海防,王金叶,赵连生,李光平,王绍能.漓江上游典型森林植被对降水径流的调节作用.生态学报,2015,35(3):663- 669.
[30] 陈军锋,李秀彬.森林植被变化对流域水文影响的争论.自然资源学报,2001,16(5):474- 480.
[31] 李文华,何永涛,杨丽韫.森林对径流影响研究的回顾与展望.自然资源学报,2001,16(5):398- 406.
[32] 张晓萍,高照良,张橹,李锐.不同时间尺度径流对植被变化的响应.中国水土保持科学,2007,5(4):94- 100.
[33] 韩永刚,杨玉盛.森林水文效应的研究进展.亚热带水土保持,2007,19(2):20- 25.
[34] 郭晓英,陈兴伟,陈莹,王跃峰.气候变化与人类活动对闽江流域径流变化的影响.中国水土保持科学,2016,14(2):88- 94.
[35] 张杰,张正栋,万露文,杨传训,叶晨.气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献.华南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2017,49(6):84- 91.
[36] 夏军,马协一,邹磊,王咏铃,景朝霞.气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究.南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):1- 6.
[37] 于泽兴,胡国华,陈肖,顾庆福.降水变化和人类活动对浏阳河流域径流的影响.长江科学院院报,2017,34(11):6- 11.
[2] 王西琴,张远,张艳会.渭河上游天然径流变化及其自然与人为因素影响贡献量.自然资源学报,2006,21(6):981- 990.
[3] 夏军,王渺林.长江上游流域径流变化与分布式水文模拟.资源科学,2008,30(7):962- 967.
[4] 刘剑宇,张强,邓晓宇,慈晖,陈晓宏.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流过程影响的定量分析.湖泊科学,2016,28(2):432- 443.
[5] 丁婧祎,赵文武,王军,房学宁.降水和植被变化对径流影响的尺度效应——以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区为例.地理科学进展,2015,34(8):1039- 1051.
[6] 郭爱军,畅建霞,黄强,孙佳宁.渭河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的定量分析.西北农林科技大学学报:自然科学版,2014,42(8):212- 220.
[7] 刘贵花,齐述华,朱婧瑄,熊梦雅,王点.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析.湖泊科学,2016,28(3):682- 690.
[8] Zeng S D,Xia J,Du H.Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):401- 413.
[9] Jiang S H,Ren L L,Yong B,Singh V P,Yang X L,Yuan F.Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods.Hydrological Processes,2011,25(16):2492- 2505.
[10] Ahn K H,Merwade V.Quantifying the relative impact of climate and human activities on streamflow.Journal of Hydrology,2014,515:257- 266.
[11] Ye X C,Zhang Q,Liu J,Li X H,Xu C Y.Distinguishing the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on variation of streamflow in the Poyang Lake catchment,China.Journal of Hydrology,2013,494:83- 95.
[12] 夏智宏,刘敏,王苗,王凯,秦鹏程.1990s以来气候变化和人类活动对洪湖流域径流影响的定量辨识.湖泊科学,2014,26(4):515- 521.
[13] 李丽娟,郑红星.华北典型河流年径流演变规律及其驱动力分析——以潮白河为例.地理学报,2000,55(3):309- 317.
[14] 徐海量,叶茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探.地理科学,2007,27(2):219- 224.
[15] 康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,杨明金.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析.资源科学,2009,31(3):501- 508.
[16] 王金花,康玲玲,赵广福.基于Mann-Kendall法的水沙系列突变点研究.人民黄河,2010,32(1):43- 43,45- 45.
[17] 王随继,闫云霞,颜明,赵晓坤.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析——累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用.地理学报,2012,67(3):388- 397.
[18] 王彦君,王随继,苏腾.降水和人类活动对松花江径流量变化的贡献率.自然资源学报,2015,30(2):304- 314.
[19] 庞树江,王晓燕.密云水库流域入库径流量变化特征及归因研究.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(9):144- 148.
[20] 代稳,吕殿青,李景保,王金凤.气候变化和人类活动对长江中游径流量变化影响分析.冰川冻土,2016,38(2):488- 497.
[21] 程俊翔,徐力刚,姜加虎,谭志强,喻崎雯,范宏翔.洞庭湖流域径流量对气候变化和人类活动的响应研究.农业环境科学学报,2016,35(11):2146- 2153.
[22] 杨传训,张正栋,朱汝雄,万露文,叶晨,张杰.华南湿热山地小流域径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应——以宁江为例.水土保持研究,2017,24(5):113- 119.
[23] 杨志刚,卓玛,路红亚,达瓦次仁,马鹏飞,周刊社.1961—2010年西藏雅鲁藏布江流域降水量变化特征及其对径流的影响分析.冰川冻土,2014,36(1):166- 172.
[24] 吕乐婷,彭秋志,廖剑宇,江源,康慕谊.近50年东江流域降雨径流变化趋势研究.资源科学,2013,35(3):514- 520.
[25] 于文颖,周广胜,迟道才,周莉,何奇瑾.盘锦湿地芦苇(Phragmites communis)群落蒸发散主导影响因子.生态学报,2008,28(9):4594- 4601.
[26] 孙悦,李栋梁,朱拥军.渭河径流变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应研究进展.干旱气象,2013,31(2):396- 405.
[27] 唐丽霞,张志强,王新杰,王盛萍,查同刚.晋西黄土高原丘陵沟壑区清水河流域径流对土地利用与气候变化的响应.植物生态学报,2010,34(7):800- 810.
[28] Wu L H,Wang S J,Bai X Y,Luo W J,Tian Y C,Zeng C.Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed,SW China.Science of the Total Environment,2017,601- 602:1449- 1465.
[29] 段文军,李海防,王金叶,赵连生,李光平,王绍能.漓江上游典型森林植被对降水径流的调节作用.生态学报,2015,35(3):663- 669.
[30] 陈军锋,李秀彬.森林植被变化对流域水文影响的争论.自然资源学报,2001,16(5):474- 480.
[31] 李文华,何永涛,杨丽韫.森林对径流影响研究的回顾与展望.自然资源学报,2001,16(5):398- 406.
[32] 张晓萍,高照良,张橹,李锐.不同时间尺度径流对植被变化的响应.中国水土保持科学,2007,5(4):94- 100.
[33] 韩永刚,杨玉盛.森林水文效应的研究进展.亚热带水土保持,2007,19(2):20- 25.
[34] 郭晓英,陈兴伟,陈莹,王跃峰.气候变化与人类活动对闽江流域径流变化的影响.中国水土保持科学,2016,14(2):88- 94.
[35] 张杰,张正栋,万露文,杨传训,叶晨.气候变化和人类活动对汀江径流量变化的贡献.华南师范大学学报:自然科学版,2017,49(6):84- 91.
[36] 夏军,马协一,邹磊,王咏铃,景朝霞.气候变化和人类活动对汉江上游径流变化影响的定量研究.南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):1- 6.
[37] 于泽兴,胡国华,陈肖,顾庆福.降水变化和人类活动对浏阳河流域径流的影响.长江科学院院报,2017,34(11):6- 11.
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