1971─2012年长江中下游地区水稻洪涝时空分布特征
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摘要
【目的】为长江中下游地区地区性防涝排涝部署提供依据。【方法】基于1971─2012年长江中下游地区426个气象站点逐日降水资料,通过分析洪涝发生频率、洪涝强度和洪涝发生站次比,研究了长江中下游地区年度洪涝灾害时空分布特征和覆盖水稻关键生育期洪涝灾害时空演变特征。【结果】研究区中度、重度洪涝发生频率所占比最大,中度洪涝发生频率主要集中在湖北、湖南、江西、浙江;重度洪涝发生频率集中在湖南、江西、浙江;特涝发生频率集中在安徽北部与江苏。同时,1971─2012年间研究区域洪涝发生影响范围总体年际尺度变化不明显,洪涝强度20世纪90年代最强,但整体有降低趋势。从研究区水稻物候期来看,影响范围最广强度最大集中发生在7─8月,早稻与一季稻分别处于灌浆成熟期与拔节孕穗期。【结论】在研究区域加强农业气象监测密度,重点可在研究区内(安徽北部、江苏、湖南、江西、浙江)早稻进入灌浆期与一季稻拔节孕穗期前期进行水利设施建设,依靠研究区地势特点与农田生态自身环境稳定性,预防和排除水稻洪涝灾害。
【Objective】Waterlogging and flooding are natural hazards facing agricultural production, and understanding their spatiotemporal distribution is critical to safeguarding food production.【Method】Taking middle-low reach of Yangtze River basin as an example, this paper studied the spatiotemporal distribution of waterlogging/flooding occurring at the key growing stage of rice in 1971—2012. Using data measured from 426 weather stations, we analyzed the frequency and intensity of the flooding, as well as the season it occurred.【Result】During the studied period, most waterlogging/flooding were at moderate to severe level, with the moderate occurring mainly in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang province, and the sever in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang. Catastrophic flooding occurred in Anhui and Jiangsu. Overall, inter-annual flooding did not show significant difference despite a slight increase in the 1990 s followed by a decease. Between July to August, early rice was at filling stage and the later rice was at jointing stage, occurrence of flooding in this period could have a devastating impact on rice growth.【Conclusion】More weather data are needed for northern Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang when the early rice was at its filling stage and the second rice was at its jointing-booting stage. Drainage facilities need renovation in order to ameliorate flooding.
【Objective】Waterlogging and flooding are natural hazards facing agricultural production, and understanding their spatiotemporal distribution is critical to safeguarding food production.【Method】Taking middle-low reach of Yangtze River basin as an example, this paper studied the spatiotemporal distribution of waterlogging/flooding occurring at the key growing stage of rice in 1971—2012. Using data measured from 426 weather stations, we analyzed the frequency and intensity of the flooding, as well as the season it occurred.【Result】During the studied period, most waterlogging/flooding were at moderate to severe level, with the moderate occurring mainly in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang province, and the sever in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang. Catastrophic flooding occurred in Anhui and Jiangsu. Overall, inter-annual flooding did not show significant difference despite a slight increase in the 1990 s followed by a decease. Between July to August, early rice was at filling stage and the later rice was at jointing stage, occurrence of flooding in this period could have a devastating impact on rice growth.【Conclusion】More weather data are needed for northern Anhui, Jiangsu, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang when the early rice was at its filling stage and the second rice was at its jointing-booting stage. Drainage facilities need renovation in order to ameliorate flooding.
引文
[1]金志凤,吴杨,金昌林,等.台风对浙江省农业生产影响及防御措施[J].浙江农业学报,2011,23(2):358-363.
[2]周月华,郭广芬,邵末兰,等.基于水位和雨量的洪涝受灾面积评估模型研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007(4):323-327.
[3]刘兰芳,钟顺清,唐云松.农业洪涝灾害风险分析与评估:以湘南农业洪涝易损性为例[J].农业现代化研究,2003,24(5):380-383.
[4]霍治国,王石立.农业和生物气象灾害[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[5]徐明,马超德.长江流域气候变化脆弱性与适应性研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.
[6]刘松,朱建强,田皓.长江中下游地区的主要水问题与对策[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版),2012,9(1):42-46.
[7]卞洁.长江中下游暴雨洪涝灾害的风险性评估与预估[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[8]江丽,安萍莉.我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估[J].灾害学,2011,26(1):48-53.
[9]卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611.
[10]徐鹏,顾晓鹤,孟鲁闽,等.洪涝胁迫的水稻叶面积指数变化及其光谱响应研究[J].光谱学与光谱分析,2013,33(12):3 298-3 302.
[11]KHAKWANI Abdul Aziz,SHIRAISHI M,ZUBAIR Masaaki,et al.Effect of seedling age and water depth on morphological and physiological aspects of transplanted rice under high temperature[J].Journal of Zhejiang University.Science.b,2005,6B(5):389-395.
[12]DEVENDER Reddy M,MITTRA B N,Effect of complete plant submergence at different growth stages on grain yield,yield components and nutrient content of rice[J].Plant and Soil,1985,86:379-386.
[13]夏石头,彭克勤,曾可.水稻涝害生理及其与水稻生产的关系[J].植物生理学通讯,2000,36(6):581-588.
[14]蔺万煌,孙福增,彭克勤,等.洪涝胁迫对水稻产量及产量构成因素的影响[J].湖南农业大学学报,1997,23(1):50-54.
[15]陈永华.水稻耐淹生理及分子机理研究[D].长沙:湖南农业大学.2006.
[16]KAR Gouranga,SAHOO Narayan,KUMAR Ashwani.Deep-water rice production as influenced by time and depth of flooding on the east coast of India[J].Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science,2012,58(6):573-592.
[17]KRISHNA Kaveri Dasa,DEBABRATA Pandaa,SARKARA R K,et al.Submergence tolerance in relation to variable floodwater conditions in rice[J].Environmental and Experimental Botany,2009,66(3):425-434.
[18]SRIKANTHA Herath,DUSHMANTA Dutta.Flood inundation modeling and loss estimation using distributed hydrologic model,GIS and RS[C]//Proceedings of International Workshop on the Utilization of remote sensing technology to natural disaster reduction,Tsukuba,Japan:1998:239-250.
[19]刘亚岚,王世新,阎守邕,等.遥感与GIS支持下的基于网络的洪涝灾害监测评估系统关键技术研究[J].遥感学报,2001,5(1):53-57.
[20]GRICE D B.Application of remote sensing technology for real time disaster assessment.GIS/LIS’91 Proceedings Bethesda,MD.USA:American Soc[J].Photogrammetry&Remote Sensing,1991,2(2):17-27.
[21]王腊春,江南,周寅康,等.太湖流域洪涝灾害评估模型[J].测绘科学,2003,28(2):35-38.
[22]李春.区域性洪涝灾害的灾情评估[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(4):75-81.
[23]俄有浩,霍治国.长江中下游地区暴雨特征及洪涝淹没风险分析[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(4):1 053-1 062.
[24]李纪人,黄诗峰.“3S”技术水利应用指南[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[25]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):84-89.
[26]朱强,陈秀万,彭俊.基于网格的洪水损失计算模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007(6):42-46.
[27]GORO Mouri,DAIGO Minoshima,VALENTIN Nikolaevich Golosov,et al.Probability assessment of flood and sediment disasters in japan using the total runoff-integrating pathways model[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013(3):31-43.
[28]张桂香,霍治国,吴立,等.1961-2010年长江中下游地区农业洪涝灾害时空变化[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1 097-1 108.
[29]郭相平,黄双双,王振昌,等.不同灌溉模式对水稻抗倒伏能力影响的试验研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):1-5.
[30]雷彩秀,熊卫红,姜忠,等.基于随机降雨的水稻优化灌溉制度[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):66-72.
[31]晏军,吴启侠,朱建强.中稻灌浆期对淹水胁迫的响应及排水指标研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):59-65.
[32]王军,纪方青,周雪全,等.水稻水层管理田间试验总结[J].吉林农业,2018(15):61.
[2]周月华,郭广芬,邵末兰,等.基于水位和雨量的洪涝受灾面积评估模型研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007(4):323-327.
[3]刘兰芳,钟顺清,唐云松.农业洪涝灾害风险分析与评估:以湘南农业洪涝易损性为例[J].农业现代化研究,2003,24(5):380-383.
[4]霍治国,王石立.农业和生物气象灾害[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[5]徐明,马超德.长江流域气候变化脆弱性与适应性研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.
[6]刘松,朱建强,田皓.长江中下游地区的主要水问题与对策[J].长江大学学报(自然科学版),2012,9(1):42-46.
[7]卞洁.长江中下游暴雨洪涝灾害的风险性评估与预估[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[8]江丽,安萍莉.我国自然灾害时空分布及其粮食风险评估[J].灾害学,2011,26(1):48-53.
[9]卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611.
[10]徐鹏,顾晓鹤,孟鲁闽,等.洪涝胁迫的水稻叶面积指数变化及其光谱响应研究[J].光谱学与光谱分析,2013,33(12):3 298-3 302.
[11]KHAKWANI Abdul Aziz,SHIRAISHI M,ZUBAIR Masaaki,et al.Effect of seedling age and water depth on morphological and physiological aspects of transplanted rice under high temperature[J].Journal of Zhejiang University.Science.b,2005,6B(5):389-395.
[12]DEVENDER Reddy M,MITTRA B N,Effect of complete plant submergence at different growth stages on grain yield,yield components and nutrient content of rice[J].Plant and Soil,1985,86:379-386.
[13]夏石头,彭克勤,曾可.水稻涝害生理及其与水稻生产的关系[J].植物生理学通讯,2000,36(6):581-588.
[14]蔺万煌,孙福增,彭克勤,等.洪涝胁迫对水稻产量及产量构成因素的影响[J].湖南农业大学学报,1997,23(1):50-54.
[15]陈永华.水稻耐淹生理及分子机理研究[D].长沙:湖南农业大学.2006.
[16]KAR Gouranga,SAHOO Narayan,KUMAR Ashwani.Deep-water rice production as influenced by time and depth of flooding on the east coast of India[J].Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science,2012,58(6):573-592.
[17]KRISHNA Kaveri Dasa,DEBABRATA Pandaa,SARKARA R K,et al.Submergence tolerance in relation to variable floodwater conditions in rice[J].Environmental and Experimental Botany,2009,66(3):425-434.
[18]SRIKANTHA Herath,DUSHMANTA Dutta.Flood inundation modeling and loss estimation using distributed hydrologic model,GIS and RS[C]//Proceedings of International Workshop on the Utilization of remote sensing technology to natural disaster reduction,Tsukuba,Japan:1998:239-250.
[19]刘亚岚,王世新,阎守邕,等.遥感与GIS支持下的基于网络的洪涝灾害监测评估系统关键技术研究[J].遥感学报,2001,5(1):53-57.
[20]GRICE D B.Application of remote sensing technology for real time disaster assessment.GIS/LIS’91 Proceedings Bethesda,MD.USA:American Soc[J].Photogrammetry&Remote Sensing,1991,2(2):17-27.
[21]王腊春,江南,周寅康,等.太湖流域洪涝灾害评估模型[J].测绘科学,2003,28(2):35-38.
[22]李春.区域性洪涝灾害的灾情评估[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(4):75-81.
[23]俄有浩,霍治国.长江中下游地区暴雨特征及洪涝淹没风险分析[J].生态学杂志,2016,35(4):1 053-1 062.
[24]李纪人,黄诗峰.“3S”技术水利应用指南[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[25]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(4):84-89.
[26]朱强,陈秀万,彭俊.基于网格的洪水损失计算模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2007(6):42-46.
[27]GORO Mouri,DAIGO Minoshima,VALENTIN Nikolaevich Golosov,et al.Probability assessment of flood and sediment disasters in japan using the total runoff-integrating pathways model[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2013(3):31-43.
[28]张桂香,霍治国,吴立,等.1961-2010年长江中下游地区农业洪涝灾害时空变化[J].地理研究,2015,34(6):1 097-1 108.
[29]郭相平,黄双双,王振昌,等.不同灌溉模式对水稻抗倒伏能力影响的试验研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):1-5.
[30]雷彩秀,熊卫红,姜忠,等.基于随机降雨的水稻优化灌溉制度[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):66-72.
[31]晏军,吴启侠,朱建强.中稻灌浆期对淹水胁迫的响应及排水指标研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(5):59-65.
[32]王军,纪方青,周雪全,等.水稻水层管理田间试验总结[J].吉林农业,2018(15):61.
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