基于SPEI指数的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及影响研究
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摘要
运用淮河流域149个气象站1962—2016年逐日气温、降水资料以及历史旱情资料,基于SPEI、EOF和M-K等方法分析淮河流域的干旱时空特征,研究干旱的时空演变规律并揭示其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)基于SPEI得到的干旱频次与受灾、成灾面积的相关性通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,表明SPEI在淮河流域具有较好的适用性;(2)淮河流域干旱发生时间差异明显,干旱次数呈现波动变化,发生重旱和特旱次数占总干旱的比重是20.0%,其中重旱和特旱在1960s比重最大(24.8%),其次是2010s(15.8%),在1980s比重最低(10.0%);(3)干旱的空间分布差异大,淮河流域干旱频率在27.76%—36.04%之间,西北部和东南部发生干旱强度较西南部、东北部及中部低;(4)淮河流域总体呈干旱化的趋势,从中部到四周呈现由高到低递减的趋势变化,且空间模态表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型。
The daily temperature, precipitation of 149 meteorological stations and historical drought disaster in the Huai river basin from 1962 to 2016 were analyzed based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), Empirical Orthogonal Function and Mann-Kendall method. In this study drought evolution were analyzed and revealed the impact of agricultural production in the Huai river basin. The results showed that:(1) The correlation between the number of droughts and drought-affected area at the 0.05 significance level, indicating that the SPEI has an excellent suitability in the Huai river basin.(2) The drought time was significantly different and drought frequency was obvious fluctuation in the Huai river basin. The most of severe drought and extreme drought is the largest in 1960 s(24.8%), followed by 2010 s(15.8%) and lowest in 1980 s(10.0%).(3) The spatial distribution of drought has much difference. The drought severity was change between 27.76% and 36.04% in the Huai river basin. The drought severity in the northwest and southeast is lower than that in the southwest, northeast and central regions.(4) The results showed that trend of regional drought had a tendency towards drought conditions, which was the decreasing from the middle to the surroundings in the Huai river basin. The principal modes of our results indicated obvious variation and consistent.
The daily temperature, precipitation of 149 meteorological stations and historical drought disaster in the Huai river basin from 1962 to 2016 were analyzed based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI), Empirical Orthogonal Function and Mann-Kendall method. In this study drought evolution were analyzed and revealed the impact of agricultural production in the Huai river basin. The results showed that:(1) The correlation between the number of droughts and drought-affected area at the 0.05 significance level, indicating that the SPEI has an excellent suitability in the Huai river basin.(2) The drought time was significantly different and drought frequency was obvious fluctuation in the Huai river basin. The most of severe drought and extreme drought is the largest in 1960 s(24.8%), followed by 2010 s(15.8%) and lowest in 1980 s(10.0%).(3) The spatial distribution of drought has much difference. The drought severity was change between 27.76% and 36.04% in the Huai river basin. The drought severity in the northwest and southeast is lower than that in the southwest, northeast and central regions.(4) The results showed that trend of regional drought had a tendency towards drought conditions, which was the decreasing from the middle to the surroundings in the Huai river basin. The principal modes of our results indicated obvious variation and consistent.
引文
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[23] 温克刚.中国气象灾害大典.综合卷.气象出版社,2008.
[24] 徐泽华,韩美.山东省干旱时空分布特征及其与ENSO的相关性.中国生态农业学报,2018(8).
[25] 陈小凤,王再明,胡军,王振龙.淮河流域近60年来干旱灾害特征分析.南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(6):20- 24.
[26] 唐侥,孙睿.基于气象和遥感数据的河南省干旱特征分析.自然资源学报,2013,28(4):646- 655.
[27] 黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,张晓煜,王明田,代姝玮,马洁华.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征.农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50- 59.
[28] 谢五三,田红,王胜,唐为安.基于CI指数的淮河流域干旱时空特征研究.气象,2013,39(09):1171- 1175.
[29] Ye Z W,Li Z H.Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin,a Climatic Transitional Zone in East China.Advances in Meteorology,2017,2017(1):1- 15.
[30] Shi P,Ma X X,Chen X,Qu S m,Zhang Z C.Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River.Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2013,2013:1- 11.
[31] 聂兵,沈非,徐光来,黄艳萍.安徽省近50年降水时空变化分析.安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,40(06):574- 579.
[32] 郭冬冬,郭树龙,李彩霞,周新国.基于SPI的淮河流域旱涝时空分布特征研究.灌溉排水学报,2014,33(06):117- 121.
[33] 王文举,崔鹏,刘敏,沈蕾,李鑫,秦鹏程.近50年湖北省多时间尺度干旱演变特征.中国农学通报,2012,28(29):279- 284.
[34] 林峰.山东省旱灾变化规律及减灾对策.水利科技与经济,2005,11(8):457- 458.
[35] 李长祝.山东省80年代旱情及水资源供需浅析.水文,1992(s1):20- 22.
[36] 苑文华,王瑜,张慧.2010—2011年秋冬季山东特大气象干旱特征及成因分析//中国气象学会年会s2灾害天气监测、分析与预报,2014.
[2] 马柱国,符淙斌.1951—2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报,2006,51(20):2429.
[3] 王胜,田红,丁小俊,谢五三,陶寅.淮河流域主汛期降水气候特征及“旱涝急转”现象.中国农业气象,2009,30(1):31- 34.
[4] 吴永祥,姚惠明,王高旭,沈国昌,施睿,侯保灯.淮河流域极端旱涝特征分析.水利水运工程学报,2011(4):149- 153.
[5] 宁远.淮河流域水利手册.科学出版社,2003.
[6] 水利部淮河水利委员会水文局.淮河流域片水旱灾害分析.2002.
[7] Gobena A K,Gan T Y.Assessment of Trends and Possible Climate Change Impacts on Summer Moisture Availability in Western Canada based on Metrics of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.Journal of Climate,2013,26(13):4583- 4595.
[8] 翟禄新,冯起.基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化.自然资源学报,2011,26(5):847- 857.
[9] Manatsa D,Mushore T,Lenouo A.Improved predictability of droughts over southern Africa using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index and ENSO.Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2015,127(1- 2):1- 16.
[10] Vicente-serrano S M,Beguería S,Lópezmoreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696- 1718.
[11] Alam N M,Sharma G C,Moreira E,Jana C,Mishra P K,Sharma N K,Mandal D.Mandala Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India.Physics & Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/b/c,2017,100.
[12] Yu M,Li Q,Hayes M J,Svoboda M D,Heim R R.Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index:1951—2010.International Journal of Climatology,2014(34):545- 557.
[13] 庄少伟,左洪超,任鹏程,熊光洁,李邦东,董文成,王利盈.标准化降水蒸发指数在中国区域的应用.气候与环境研究,2013,18(5):617- 625.
[14] 叶磊,周建中,曾小凡,张海荣,卢鹏,孙新德.气候变化下SPEI指数在嘉陵江流域的干旱评估应用.长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(6):943- 948.
[15] 熊光洁,张博凯,李崇银,尚可政,王式功.基于SPEI的中国西南地区1961—2012年干旱变化特征分析.气候变化研究进展,2013,9(3):192- 198.
[16] Yang C G,Yu Z B,Hao Z C,Zhang J Y,Zhu J T.Impact of climate change on flood and drought events in Huaihe River basin,China.Hydrology Research,2012,43(1/2):14- 22.
[17] Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,Smith M.Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements.Rome:FAO Irrigation and Drainage,1997:1- 15.
[18] 中国气象科学研究院,国家气象中心,中国气象局预测减灾司.GB/T20471—2006气象干旱等级.北京:中国标准出版社,2006:39- 42.
[19] 沈国强,郑海峰,雷振锋.基于SPEI指数的1961—2014年东北地区气象干旱时空特征研究.生态学报,2017,37(17):5882- 5893.
[20] Gocic M,Trajkovic S.Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen′s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia.Global & Planetary Change,2013,100(1):172- 172.
[21] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版).气象出版社,2007.
[22] 郑晓东,鲁帆,马静,李彦军.基于标准化降水指数的淮河流域干旱演变特征分析.水利水电技术,2012,43(4):102.
[23] 温克刚.中国气象灾害大典.综合卷.气象出版社,2008.
[24] 徐泽华,韩美.山东省干旱时空分布特征及其与ENSO的相关性.中国生态农业学报,2018(8).
[25] 陈小凤,王再明,胡军,王振龙.淮河流域近60年来干旱灾害特征分析.南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(6):20- 24.
[26] 唐侥,孙睿.基于气象和遥感数据的河南省干旱特征分析.自然资源学报,2013,28(4):646- 655.
[27] 黄晚华,杨晓光,李茂松,张晓煜,王明田,代姝玮,马洁华.基于标准化降水指数的中国南方季节性干旱近58a演变特征.农业工程学报,2010,26(7):50- 59.
[28] 谢五三,田红,王胜,唐为安.基于CI指数的淮河流域干旱时空特征研究.气象,2013,39(09):1171- 1175.
[29] Ye Z W,Li Z H.Spatiotemporal Variability and Trends of Extreme Precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin,a Climatic Transitional Zone in East China.Advances in Meteorology,2017,2017(1):1- 15.
[30] Shi P,Ma X X,Chen X,Qu S m,Zhang Z C.Analysis of Variation Trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River.Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2013,2013:1- 11.
[31] 聂兵,沈非,徐光来,黄艳萍.安徽省近50年降水时空变化分析.安徽师范大学学报(自然科学版),2017,40(06):574- 579.
[32] 郭冬冬,郭树龙,李彩霞,周新国.基于SPI的淮河流域旱涝时空分布特征研究.灌溉排水学报,2014,33(06):117- 121.
[33] 王文举,崔鹏,刘敏,沈蕾,李鑫,秦鹏程.近50年湖北省多时间尺度干旱演变特征.中国农学通报,2012,28(29):279- 284.
[34] 林峰.山东省旱灾变化规律及减灾对策.水利科技与经济,2005,11(8):457- 458.
[35] 李长祝.山东省80年代旱情及水资源供需浅析.水文,1992(s1):20- 22.
[36] 苑文华,王瑜,张慧.2010—2011年秋冬季山东特大气象干旱特征及成因分析//中国气象学会年会s2灾害天气监测、分析与预报,2014.
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