地表水环境数学模型研究进展
|
摘要
简述了地表水环境数学模型,包括水动力学模型、水质模型和水生态模型的发展历史、应用现状及国内外最新研究成果,深入探讨了模型敏感性和不确定性分析、模型模拟精度等应用中被广泛关注的疑难问题,指出模型系统化、综合化和平台化,大数据支撑下的与新兴技术结合创新,以及模型法规化等将成为水环境模拟与预测领域未来的研究热点。
This paper briefly described the surface water environment numerical models, including the development history, the application status, and the latest research results at home and abroad of hydrodynamic models, water quality models and water ecological models. Both methods of analyzing model sensitivity and uncertainty and problems of model precision were emphatically expounded. It is pointed out that the systematization, integration and platform construction of the model, the combination of innovation with emerging technologies supported by large data, and the related management issues such as model synthesis and regulation will become the future research hotspots in the field of water environment simulation and prediction.
This paper briefly described the surface water environment numerical models, including the development history, the application status, and the latest research results at home and abroad of hydrodynamic models, water quality models and water ecological models. Both methods of analyzing model sensitivity and uncertainty and problems of model precision were emphatically expounded. It is pointed out that the systematization, integration and platform construction of the model, the combination of innovation with emerging technologies supported by large data, and the related management issues such as model synthesis and regulation will become the future research hotspots in the field of water environment simulation and prediction.
引文
[1] 曹慧群,赵鑫.流域水环境数值模拟技术应用及研究展望[J].长江科学院院报,2015,32(6):20-24.(CAO Huiqun,ZHAO Xin.Overview and applications of simulation models for basin water environment[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2015,32(6):20-24.(in Chinese))
[2] 卢士强,徐祖信.平原河网水动力模型及求解方法探讨[J].水资源保护,2003,19(3):5-9.(LU Shiqiang,XU Zuxin.Hydrodynamic model for plain river networks and its solution[J].Water Resources Protection,2003,19(3):5-9.(in Chinese))
[3] LI Y,TANG C,WANG J,et al.Effect of wave-current interactions on sediment resuspension in large shallow Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2017,24(4):4029-4039.
[4] JALIL A,LI Y,DU W,et al.Wind-induced flow velocity effects on nutrient concentrations at Eastern Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2017,24(21):17900-17911.
[5] 李一平,罗凡,郭晋川,等.我国南方桉树(Eucalyptus)人工林区水库突发性泛黑形成机理初探[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(1):15-24.(LI Yiping,LUO Fan,GUO Jinchuan,et al.Mechanism of “black-water” occurrence in the reservoirs with Eucalyptus plantation,Southern China[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(1):15-24.(in Chinese))
[6] 甘衍军,李兰,武见,等.基于EFDC的二滩水库水温模拟及水温分层影响研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(4):476-485.(GAN Yanjun,LI Lan,WU Jian,et al.Water temperature modeling and influences of water temperature stratification of Ertan Reservoir based on EFDC[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(4):476-485.(in Chinese))
[7] 阎超,于剑,徐晶磊,等.CFD模拟方法的发展成就与展望[J].力学进展,2011,41(5):562-589.(YAN Chao,YU Jian,XU Jinglei,et al.On the achievements and prospects for the methods of computational fluid dynamics[J].Advances in Mechanics,2011,41(5):562-589.(in Chinese))
[8] JUNG J.A numerical simulation of wave run-up around circular cylinders in waves[J].Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety,2016,22(6):750-757.
[9] YAO Z,ZHANG X,HE F.Anisotropic turbulent model based on V2f model for natural and mixed convection in enclosed spaces[J].Science and Technology for The Built Environment,2015,21(7):986-992.
[10] RIPPETH T P,VLASENKO V,STASHCHUK N,et al.Tidal conversion and mixing poleward of the critical latitude (an arctic case study)[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(24):12349-12357.
[11] 聂学富.径流及盐度对瓯江口滞留时间影响的数值模拟研究[J].浙江水利水电学院学报,2017,29(4):12-19.(NIE Xuefu.Numerical simulation on influence of river discharge and salinity in residence time in Oujiang Estuary[J].Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College,2017,29(4):12-19.(in Chinese))
[12] 杨甜甜,梁国华,何斌,等.基于水文水动力学耦合的洪水预报模型研究及应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):72-78.(YANG Tiantian,LIANG Guohua,HE Bin,et al.Study and application of a flood forecasting model based on coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic approach[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2017,15(1):72-78.(in Chinese))
[13] 李一平,逄勇,刘兴平,等.太湖波浪数值模拟[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(1):117-122.(LI Yiping,PANG Yong,LIU Xingping,et al.Numerical modeling of waves in Lake Taihu[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2008,20(1):117-122.(in Chinese))
[14] 王崇浩,韦永康.三维水动力泥沙输移模型及其在珠江口的应用[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2006,4(4):246-252.(WANG Chonghao,WEI Yongkang.Three-dimensional modelling of sediment transport in the Pearl River Estuary[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2006,4(4):246-252.(in Chinese))
[15] KHAN L A.A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model analysis of free surface hydrodynamics and fish passage energetics in a vertical-slot fishway[J].North American Journal of Fisheries Management,2006,26(2):255-267.
[16] WANG Q,LI S,JIA P,et al.A review of surface water quality models[J].The Scientific World Journal,2013,2013(3):1-7.
[17] 周华,王浩.河流综合水质模型QUAL2K研究综述[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(6):22-24.(ZHOU Hua,WANG Hao.Review on the comprehensive stream water quality model QUAL2K[J].Water Resources and Power,2010,28(6):22-24.(in Chinese))
[18] VANDENBERG J A,PRAKASH S,BUCHAK E M.Sediment diagenesis module for CE-QUAL-W2(Part 1):conceptual formulation[J].Environmental Modeling & Assessment,2015,20(3):239-247.
[19] 崔宝侠,高鸿雁,左传金,等.人工智能在水质模型改进中的应用[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2004,26(5):543-546.(CUI Baoxia,GAO Hongyan,ZUO Chuanjin,et al.Applications of artificial intelligence to water quality model improvement[J].Journal of Shenyang University of Technology,2004,26(5):543-546.(in Chinese))
[20] 王建平,程声通,贾海峰.环境模型参数识别方法研究综述[J].水科学进展,2006,17(4):574-580.(WANG Jianping,CHENG Shengtong,JIA Haifeng.Advances in study on parameter identification methods for environmental models[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(4):574-580.(in Chinese))
[21] ZHENG W.Control model of watershed water environment system simulating human neural network structure[J].Neuroquantology,2018,16(5):783-788.
[22] 唐天均,杨晟,尹魁浩,等.基于EFDC模型的深圳水库富营养化模拟[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(3):393-400.(TANG Tianjun,YANG Sheng,YIN Kuihao,et al.Simulation of eutrophication in Shenzhen Reservoir based on EFDC model[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2014,26(3):393-400.(in Chinese))
[23] 朱文博,王洪秀,柳翠,等.河道曝气提升河流水质的WASP模型研究[J].环境科学,2015,36(4):1326-1331.(ZHU Wenbo,WANG Hongxiu,LIU Cui,et al.Improvement of river water quality by aeration:WASP model study [J].Environmental Science,2015,36(4):1326-1331.(in Chinese))
[24] 朱茂森.基于MIKE11的辽河流域一维水质模型[J].水资源保护,2013,29(3):6-9.(ZHU Maosen.One-dimensional water quality model based on MIKE11 for Liaohe Basin[J].Water Resources Protection,2013,29(3):6-9.(in Chinese))
[25] ANAGNOSTOU E,GIANNI A,ZACHARIAS I.Ecological modeling and eutrophication:a review[J].Natural Resource Modeling,2017,30:e12130.
[26] BLAUW A N,LOS H F J,BOKHORST M,et al.GEM:a generic ecological model for estuaries and coastal waters[J].Hydrobiologia,2009,618(1):175-198.
[27] TRIANTAFYLLOU G,YAO F,PETIHAKIS G,et al.Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans,2014,119(3):1791-1811.
[28] 江志超,郭艳芬,刘园园,等.近岸海域赤潮藻非线性生态模型的建立和动力学分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(1):168-176.(JIANG Zhichao,GUO Yanfen,LIU Yuanyuan,et al.Nonlinear ecological model structuring and dynamic analysis on red tide algae in offshore area[J].Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2017,47(1):168-176.(in Chinese))
[29] COWAN W R,RANKIN D E,GARD M.Evaluation of central valley spring-run chinook salmon passage through lower butte creek using hydraulic modelling techniques[J].River Research and Applications,2017,33(3):328-340.
[30] 黄炜.基于HABITAT模型的生物栖息地评价:以泸沽湖宁蒗裂腹鱼为例[J].环保科技,2014,20(5):37-42.(HUANG Wei.Ecological habitat assessment based on HABITAT model:a case study of Schizothorax Yunnansis[J].Environmental Protection and Technology,2014,20(5):37-42.(in Chinese))
[31] 张义,张合平,郭琳.我国水生态足迹研究进展[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(2):57-60.(ZHANG Yi,ZHANG Heping,GUO Lin.Research advances of water ecological footprint in China[J].Water Resources and Power,2013,31(2):57-60.(in Chinese))
[32] WANG J,PANG Y,LI Y,et al.Experimental study of wind-induced sediment suspension and nutrient release in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2015,22(14):10471-10479.
[33] JALIL A,LI Y,DU W,et al.The role of wind field induced flow velocities in destratification and hypoxia reduction at Meiling Bay of large shallow Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Pollution,2018,232:591-602.
[34] 王生愿,张万顺,吴扬,等.湖泊湿地生态系统水动力、水生态数学模型研究[J].河南科学,2015,33(5):814-818.(WANG Shengyuan,ZHANG Wanshun,WU Yang,et al.The hydrodynamic and water ecological mathematical model of lake wetland ecosystem[J].Henan Science,2015,33(5):814-818.(in Chinese))
[35] 龚然,何跃,徐力刚,等.EFDC(environmental fluid dynamics code)模型在湖库水环境模拟中的应用进展[J].海洋湖沼通报,2016(6):12-19.(GONG Ran,HE Yue,XU Ligang,et al.The application progress of environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) in lake and reservoir environment[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2016(6):12-19.(in Chinese))
[36] PIANOSI F,BEVEN K,FREER J,et al.Sensitivity analysis of environmental models:a systematic review with practical workflow[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2016,79:214-232.
[37] O’NEILL R V,RUST B.Aggregation error in ecological models[J].Ecological Modelling,1979,7(2):91-105.
[38] BECK M B.Water quality modeling:a review of the analysis of uncertainty[J].Water Resources Research,1987,23(8):1393-1442.
[39] LINDENSCHMIDT K,FLEISCHBEIN K,BABOROWSKI M.Structural uncertainty in a river water quality modelling system[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,204(3):289-300.
[40] RECKHOW K H.Uncertainty analysis applied to Vollenweider’s phosphorus loading criterion[J].Journal(Water Pollution Control Federation),1979,51(8):2123-2128.
[41] KIM S H,SONG M S,SUN G M,et al.A proposal on accuracy estimation method for the sampling-based uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo simulation technique[J].Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology,2016,53(2):295-301.
[42] SHEIKHOLESLAMI R,RAZAVI S.Progressive Latin hypercube sampling:an efficient approach for robust sampling-based analysis of environmental models[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2017,93:109-126.
[43] BEVEN K,BINLEY A.The future of distributed models:model calibration and uncertainty prediction[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,6(3):279-298.
[44] GELLESZUN M,KREYE P,MEON G.Representative parameter estimation for hydrological models using a lexicographic calibration strategy[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,553:722-734.
[45] 陈卫平,涂宏志,彭驰,等.环境模型中敏感性分析方法评述[J].环境科学,2017,38(11):4889-4896.(CHEN Weiping,TU Hongzhi,PENG Chi,et al.Comment on sensitivity analysis methods for environmental models[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(11):4889-4896.(in Chinese))
[46] CRYER S A,HAVENS P L.Regional sensitivity analysis using a fractional factorial method for the USDA model GLEAMS[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,1999,14(6):613-624.
[47] MORRIS M D.Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments[J].Technometrics,1991,33(2):161-174.
[48] HELTON J C,JOHNSON J D,SALLABERRY C J,et al.Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2006,91(10/11):1175-1209.
[49] MEINRATH G,EKBERG C,LANDGREN A,et al.Assessment of uncertainty in parameter evaluation and prediction[J].Talanta,2000,51(2):231-246.
[50] 李一平,邱利,唐春燕,等.湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(2):410-416.(LI Yiping,QIU Li,TANG Chunyan,et al.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of input conditions in large shallow lake hydrodynamic model[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(2):410-416.(in Chinese))
[51] LI Yiping,TANG Chunyan,ZHU Jianting,et al.Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2015,60(6):1078-1095.
[52] GONG Y,SHEN Z,HONG Q,et al.Parameter uncertainty analysis in watershed total phosphorus modeling using the GLUE methodology[J].Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment,2011,142(3/4):246-255.
[53] 姜倩妮,李占玲,张永勇.GLUE框架下似然函数对水文模型不确定性的影响[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):25-30.(JIANG Qianni,LI Zhanling,ZHANG Yongyong.Effect assessment of different likelihood functions on parameter uncertainty of hydrological model under the GLUE framework[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2018,29(1):25-30.(in Chinese))
[54] REDER K,ALCAMO J,FLOERKE M.A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a continental-scale water quality model of pathogen pollution in African rivers[J].Ecological Modelling,2017,351:129-139.
[55] 倪祥龙,康建设,王广彦,等.基于熵的不确定性敏感性分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(5):194-203.(NI Xianglong,KANG Jianshe,WANG Guangyan,et al.Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty based on entropy theory[J].Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2016,46(5):194-203.(in Chinese))
[56] TANG Z,LU Z,PAN W,et al.An entropy-based global sensitivity analysis for the structures with both fuzzy variables and random variables[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part C:Journal of Mechanical Engineering Science,2013,227(C2):195-212.
[57] MINH L Q,PHAM L T D,GONCALVES J,et al.A two-stage approach of multiplicative dimensional reduction and polynomial chaos for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with a large number of process uncertainties[J].Journal of the Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers,2017,78:254-264.
[58] 赵明登,曾威,唐小春,等.基于ArcGIS与Delft 3D的渭河下游洪泛区洪水数值模拟[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(10):145-147.(ZHAO Mingdeng,ZENG Wei,TANG Xiaochun,et al.Numerical simulation on flood in flood area of the Wei River downstream on the base of ArcGIS and Delft 3D[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012(10):145-147.(in Chinese))
[59] 丁正锋,钱新,张玉超,等.ELCOM模型在流溪河水库水温模拟中的应用[J].环境保护科学,2009,35(4):30-33.(DING Zhengfeng,QIAN Xin,ZHANG Yuchao,et al.Application of ELCOM model in simulating water temperature of Liuxihe Reservoir[J].Environmental Protection Science,2009,35(4):30-33.(in Chinese))
[60] 谢森扬,王金坑,王翠,等.九龙江口-厦门湾悬沙浓度及多岔口潮汐汊道泥沙输运的数值模拟[J].水动力学研究与进展:A辑,2016,31(2):188-201.(XIE Senyang,WANG Jinkeng,WANG Cui,et al.Numerical study on suspended sediment concentration in Jiulong Estuary-Xiamen Bay and sediment transport mechanism in tidal inlets with multi-fork[J].Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics,2016,31(2):188-201.(in Chinese))
[61] 刘晓东,周媛媛,华祖林,等.四叉树网格下水动力及物质输运数值模拟研究进展[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(11):111-114.(LIU Xiaodong,ZHOU Yuanyuan,HUA Zulin,et al.Advance in numerical simulation of shallow water flow and mass transport on quad-tree grids[J].Water Resources and Power,2014,32(11):111-114.(in Chinese))
[62] 王永桂.流域大尺度水环境模型的高效能集群计算方法研究及其在三峡库区的应用[D].武汉:武汉大学,2015.
[63] 何宗健,蔡静静,倪兆奎,等.洱海不同途径氮来源季节性特征及对水体氮贡献[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(5):1939-1948.(HE Zongjian,CAI Jingjing,NI Zhaokui,et al.Seasonal characteristics of nitrogen sources from different ways and its contribution to water nitrogen in Lake Erhai[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantia,2018,38(5):1939-1948.(in Chinese))
[2] 卢士强,徐祖信.平原河网水动力模型及求解方法探讨[J].水资源保护,2003,19(3):5-9.(LU Shiqiang,XU Zuxin.Hydrodynamic model for plain river networks and its solution[J].Water Resources Protection,2003,19(3):5-9.(in Chinese))
[3] LI Y,TANG C,WANG J,et al.Effect of wave-current interactions on sediment resuspension in large shallow Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2017,24(4):4029-4039.
[4] JALIL A,LI Y,DU W,et al.Wind-induced flow velocity effects on nutrient concentrations at Eastern Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2017,24(21):17900-17911.
[5] 李一平,罗凡,郭晋川,等.我国南方桉树(Eucalyptus)人工林区水库突发性泛黑形成机理初探[J].湖泊科学,2018,30(1):15-24.(LI Yiping,LUO Fan,GUO Jinchuan,et al.Mechanism of “black-water” occurrence in the reservoirs with Eucalyptus plantation,Southern China[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2018,30(1):15-24.(in Chinese))
[6] 甘衍军,李兰,武见,等.基于EFDC的二滩水库水温模拟及水温分层影响研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(4):476-485.(GAN Yanjun,LI Lan,WU Jian,et al.Water temperature modeling and influences of water temperature stratification of Ertan Reservoir based on EFDC[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(4):476-485.(in Chinese))
[7] 阎超,于剑,徐晶磊,等.CFD模拟方法的发展成就与展望[J].力学进展,2011,41(5):562-589.(YAN Chao,YU Jian,XU Jinglei,et al.On the achievements and prospects for the methods of computational fluid dynamics[J].Advances in Mechanics,2011,41(5):562-589.(in Chinese))
[8] JUNG J.A numerical simulation of wave run-up around circular cylinders in waves[J].Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety,2016,22(6):750-757.
[9] YAO Z,ZHANG X,HE F.Anisotropic turbulent model based on V2f model for natural and mixed convection in enclosed spaces[J].Science and Technology for The Built Environment,2015,21(7):986-992.
[10] RIPPETH T P,VLASENKO V,STASHCHUK N,et al.Tidal conversion and mixing poleward of the critical latitude (an arctic case study)[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(24):12349-12357.
[11] 聂学富.径流及盐度对瓯江口滞留时间影响的数值模拟研究[J].浙江水利水电学院学报,2017,29(4):12-19.(NIE Xuefu.Numerical simulation on influence of river discharge and salinity in residence time in Oujiang Estuary[J].Journal of Zhejiang Water Conservancy and Hydropower College,2017,29(4):12-19.(in Chinese))
[12] 杨甜甜,梁国华,何斌,等.基于水文水动力学耦合的洪水预报模型研究及应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(1):72-78.(YANG Tiantian,LIANG Guohua,HE Bin,et al.Study and application of a flood forecasting model based on coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic approach[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2017,15(1):72-78.(in Chinese))
[13] 李一平,逄勇,刘兴平,等.太湖波浪数值模拟[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(1):117-122.(LI Yiping,PANG Yong,LIU Xingping,et al.Numerical modeling of waves in Lake Taihu[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2008,20(1):117-122.(in Chinese))
[14] 王崇浩,韦永康.三维水动力泥沙输移模型及其在珠江口的应用[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2006,4(4):246-252.(WANG Chonghao,WEI Yongkang.Three-dimensional modelling of sediment transport in the Pearl River Estuary[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2006,4(4):246-252.(in Chinese))
[15] KHAN L A.A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model analysis of free surface hydrodynamics and fish passage energetics in a vertical-slot fishway[J].North American Journal of Fisheries Management,2006,26(2):255-267.
[16] WANG Q,LI S,JIA P,et al.A review of surface water quality models[J].The Scientific World Journal,2013,2013(3):1-7.
[17] 周华,王浩.河流综合水质模型QUAL2K研究综述[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(6):22-24.(ZHOU Hua,WANG Hao.Review on the comprehensive stream water quality model QUAL2K[J].Water Resources and Power,2010,28(6):22-24.(in Chinese))
[18] VANDENBERG J A,PRAKASH S,BUCHAK E M.Sediment diagenesis module for CE-QUAL-W2(Part 1):conceptual formulation[J].Environmental Modeling & Assessment,2015,20(3):239-247.
[19] 崔宝侠,高鸿雁,左传金,等.人工智能在水质模型改进中的应用[J].沈阳工业大学学报,2004,26(5):543-546.(CUI Baoxia,GAO Hongyan,ZUO Chuanjin,et al.Applications of artificial intelligence to water quality model improvement[J].Journal of Shenyang University of Technology,2004,26(5):543-546.(in Chinese))
[20] 王建平,程声通,贾海峰.环境模型参数识别方法研究综述[J].水科学进展,2006,17(4):574-580.(WANG Jianping,CHENG Shengtong,JIA Haifeng.Advances in study on parameter identification methods for environmental models[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(4):574-580.(in Chinese))
[21] ZHENG W.Control model of watershed water environment system simulating human neural network structure[J].Neuroquantology,2018,16(5):783-788.
[22] 唐天均,杨晟,尹魁浩,等.基于EFDC模型的深圳水库富营养化模拟[J].湖泊科学,2014,26(3):393-400.(TANG Tianjun,YANG Sheng,YIN Kuihao,et al.Simulation of eutrophication in Shenzhen Reservoir based on EFDC model[J].Journal of Lake Sciences,2014,26(3):393-400.(in Chinese))
[23] 朱文博,王洪秀,柳翠,等.河道曝气提升河流水质的WASP模型研究[J].环境科学,2015,36(4):1326-1331.(ZHU Wenbo,WANG Hongxiu,LIU Cui,et al.Improvement of river water quality by aeration:WASP model study [J].Environmental Science,2015,36(4):1326-1331.(in Chinese))
[24] 朱茂森.基于MIKE11的辽河流域一维水质模型[J].水资源保护,2013,29(3):6-9.(ZHU Maosen.One-dimensional water quality model based on MIKE11 for Liaohe Basin[J].Water Resources Protection,2013,29(3):6-9.(in Chinese))
[25] ANAGNOSTOU E,GIANNI A,ZACHARIAS I.Ecological modeling and eutrophication:a review[J].Natural Resource Modeling,2017,30:e12130.
[26] BLAUW A N,LOS H F J,BOKHORST M,et al.GEM:a generic ecological model for estuaries and coastal waters[J].Hydrobiologia,2009,618(1):175-198.
[27] TRIANTAFYLLOU G,YAO F,PETIHAKIS G,et al.Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans,2014,119(3):1791-1811.
[28] 江志超,郭艳芬,刘园园,等.近岸海域赤潮藻非线性生态模型的建立和动力学分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(1):168-176.(JIANG Zhichao,GUO Yanfen,LIU Yuanyuan,et al.Nonlinear ecological model structuring and dynamic analysis on red tide algae in offshore area[J].Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2017,47(1):168-176.(in Chinese))
[29] COWAN W R,RANKIN D E,GARD M.Evaluation of central valley spring-run chinook salmon passage through lower butte creek using hydraulic modelling techniques[J].River Research and Applications,2017,33(3):328-340.
[30] 黄炜.基于HABITAT模型的生物栖息地评价:以泸沽湖宁蒗裂腹鱼为例[J].环保科技,2014,20(5):37-42.(HUANG Wei.Ecological habitat assessment based on HABITAT model:a case study of Schizothorax Yunnansis[J].Environmental Protection and Technology,2014,20(5):37-42.(in Chinese))
[31] 张义,张合平,郭琳.我国水生态足迹研究进展[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(2):57-60.(ZHANG Yi,ZHANG Heping,GUO Lin.Research advances of water ecological footprint in China[J].Water Resources and Power,2013,31(2):57-60.(in Chinese))
[32] WANG J,PANG Y,LI Y,et al.Experimental study of wind-induced sediment suspension and nutrient release in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2015,22(14):10471-10479.
[33] JALIL A,LI Y,DU W,et al.The role of wind field induced flow velocities in destratification and hypoxia reduction at Meiling Bay of large shallow Lake Taihu,China[J].Environmental Pollution,2018,232:591-602.
[34] 王生愿,张万顺,吴扬,等.湖泊湿地生态系统水动力、水生态数学模型研究[J].河南科学,2015,33(5):814-818.(WANG Shengyuan,ZHANG Wanshun,WU Yang,et al.The hydrodynamic and water ecological mathematical model of lake wetland ecosystem[J].Henan Science,2015,33(5):814-818.(in Chinese))
[35] 龚然,何跃,徐力刚,等.EFDC(environmental fluid dynamics code)模型在湖库水环境模拟中的应用进展[J].海洋湖沼通报,2016(6):12-19.(GONG Ran,HE Yue,XU Ligang,et al.The application progress of environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) in lake and reservoir environment[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2016(6):12-19.(in Chinese))
[36] PIANOSI F,BEVEN K,FREER J,et al.Sensitivity analysis of environmental models:a systematic review with practical workflow[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2016,79:214-232.
[37] O’NEILL R V,RUST B.Aggregation error in ecological models[J].Ecological Modelling,1979,7(2):91-105.
[38] BECK M B.Water quality modeling:a review of the analysis of uncertainty[J].Water Resources Research,1987,23(8):1393-1442.
[39] LINDENSCHMIDT K,FLEISCHBEIN K,BABOROWSKI M.Structural uncertainty in a river water quality modelling system[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,204(3):289-300.
[40] RECKHOW K H.Uncertainty analysis applied to Vollenweider’s phosphorus loading criterion[J].Journal(Water Pollution Control Federation),1979,51(8):2123-2128.
[41] KIM S H,SONG M S,SUN G M,et al.A proposal on accuracy estimation method for the sampling-based uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo simulation technique[J].Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology,2016,53(2):295-301.
[42] SHEIKHOLESLAMI R,RAZAVI S.Progressive Latin hypercube sampling:an efficient approach for robust sampling-based analysis of environmental models[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,2017,93:109-126.
[43] BEVEN K,BINLEY A.The future of distributed models:model calibration and uncertainty prediction[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,6(3):279-298.
[44] GELLESZUN M,KREYE P,MEON G.Representative parameter estimation for hydrological models using a lexicographic calibration strategy[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,553:722-734.
[45] 陈卫平,涂宏志,彭驰,等.环境模型中敏感性分析方法评述[J].环境科学,2017,38(11):4889-4896.(CHEN Weiping,TU Hongzhi,PENG Chi,et al.Comment on sensitivity analysis methods for environmental models[J].Environmental Science,2017,38(11):4889-4896.(in Chinese))
[46] CRYER S A,HAVENS P L.Regional sensitivity analysis using a fractional factorial method for the USDA model GLEAMS[J].Environmental Modelling & Software,1999,14(6):613-624.
[47] MORRIS M D.Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments[J].Technometrics,1991,33(2):161-174.
[48] HELTON J C,JOHNSON J D,SALLABERRY C J,et al.Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2006,91(10/11):1175-1209.
[49] MEINRATH G,EKBERG C,LANDGREN A,et al.Assessment of uncertainty in parameter evaluation and prediction[J].Talanta,2000,51(2):231-246.
[50] 李一平,邱利,唐春燕,等.湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(2):410-416.(LI Yiping,QIU Li,TANG Chunyan,et al.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of input conditions in large shallow lake hydrodynamic model[J].China Environmental Science,2014,34(2):410-416.(in Chinese))
[51] LI Yiping,TANG Chunyan,ZHU Jianting,et al.Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2015,60(6):1078-1095.
[52] GONG Y,SHEN Z,HONG Q,et al.Parameter uncertainty analysis in watershed total phosphorus modeling using the GLUE methodology[J].Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment,2011,142(3/4):246-255.
[53] 姜倩妮,李占玲,张永勇.GLUE框架下似然函数对水文模型不确定性的影响[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(1):25-30.(JIANG Qianni,LI Zhanling,ZHANG Yongyong.Effect assessment of different likelihood functions on parameter uncertainty of hydrological model under the GLUE framework[J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Engineering,2018,29(1):25-30.(in Chinese))
[54] REDER K,ALCAMO J,FLOERKE M.A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a continental-scale water quality model of pathogen pollution in African rivers[J].Ecological Modelling,2017,351:129-139.
[55] 倪祥龙,康建设,王广彦,等.基于熵的不确定性敏感性分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2016,46(5):194-203.(NI Xianglong,KANG Jianshe,WANG Guangyan,et al.Sensitivity analysis of uncertainty based on entropy theory[J].Journal of Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2016,46(5):194-203.(in Chinese))
[56] TANG Z,LU Z,PAN W,et al.An entropy-based global sensitivity analysis for the structures with both fuzzy variables and random variables[J].Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part C:Journal of Mechanical Engineering Science,2013,227(C2):195-212.
[57] MINH L Q,PHAM L T D,GONCALVES J,et al.A two-stage approach of multiplicative dimensional reduction and polynomial chaos for global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification with a large number of process uncertainties[J].Journal of the Taiwan Institute of Chemical Engineers,2017,78:254-264.
[58] 赵明登,曾威,唐小春,等.基于ArcGIS与Delft 3D的渭河下游洪泛区洪水数值模拟[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(10):145-147.(ZHAO Mingdeng,ZENG Wei,TANG Xiaochun,et al.Numerical simulation on flood in flood area of the Wei River downstream on the base of ArcGIS and Delft 3D[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2012(10):145-147.(in Chinese))
[59] 丁正锋,钱新,张玉超,等.ELCOM模型在流溪河水库水温模拟中的应用[J].环境保护科学,2009,35(4):30-33.(DING Zhengfeng,QIAN Xin,ZHANG Yuchao,et al.Application of ELCOM model in simulating water temperature of Liuxihe Reservoir[J].Environmental Protection Science,2009,35(4):30-33.(in Chinese))
[60] 谢森扬,王金坑,王翠,等.九龙江口-厦门湾悬沙浓度及多岔口潮汐汊道泥沙输运的数值模拟[J].水动力学研究与进展:A辑,2016,31(2):188-201.(XIE Senyang,WANG Jinkeng,WANG Cui,et al.Numerical study on suspended sediment concentration in Jiulong Estuary-Xiamen Bay and sediment transport mechanism in tidal inlets with multi-fork[J].Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics,2016,31(2):188-201.(in Chinese))
[61] 刘晓东,周媛媛,华祖林,等.四叉树网格下水动力及物质输运数值模拟研究进展[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(11):111-114.(LIU Xiaodong,ZHOU Yuanyuan,HUA Zulin,et al.Advance in numerical simulation of shallow water flow and mass transport on quad-tree grids[J].Water Resources and Power,2014,32(11):111-114.(in Chinese))
[62] 王永桂.流域大尺度水环境模型的高效能集群计算方法研究及其在三峡库区的应用[D].武汉:武汉大学,2015.
[63] 何宗健,蔡静静,倪兆奎,等.洱海不同途径氮来源季节性特征及对水体氮贡献[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(5):1939-1948.(HE Zongjian,CAI Jingjing,NI Zhaokui,et al.Seasonal characteristics of nitrogen sources from different ways and its contribution to water nitrogen in Lake Erhai[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantia,2018,38(5):1939-1948.(in Chinese))