微型金融发展对区域经济的影响关系研究——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析
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摘要
文章结合我国2009—2018年30个省的面板数据,运用莫兰指数来检验微型金融与区域经济发展之间是否存在空间相关性,结合空间杜宾模型(SDM)去推断微型金融与地区经济发展之间的关联,并对其效应进行分解,客观准确地反映微型金融与地区经济发展之间的关系。结果表明:微型金融与区域经济增长之间存在显著的空间依赖性,微型金融规模对本区域和周边地区的经济发展均有着正向促进作用,社会固定投资水平的提高能够带动本地域经济的发展,现下金融发展程度对本区域的经济发展在一定程度上存在抑制作用,政府财政支持具有强烈的负向溢出效应。如果不将空间因素纳入考虑,微型金融和地区经济发展二者的关系将会被错估。
This paper uses the Moran index to test whether there is spatial correlation between micro-finance and regional economic development by combining the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018. Combining the Spatial Doberman Model(SDM) to infer the correlation between micro-finance and regional economic development, and decomposition of its effects and objectively and accurately reflect the specific relationship between micro-finance and regional economic development. The results show that there is significant spatial dependence between micro-finance and regional economic growth. Micro-financial efficiency has a positive effect on the economic development of the region. It also promotes neighboring regions under the geographic distance matrix and improves the level of social fixed investment. It can promote the development of the local economy. The financial scale has a certain degree of restraining effect on the economic development of the region. The government financial support has a strong negative spillover effect. If spatial factors are not taken into account, the relationship between microfinance and regional economic development will be miscalculated.
This paper uses the Moran index to test whether there is spatial correlation between micro-finance and regional economic development by combining the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018. Combining the Spatial Doberman Model(SDM) to infer the correlation between micro-finance and regional economic development, and decomposition of its effects and objectively and accurately reflect the specific relationship between micro-finance and regional economic development. The results show that there is significant spatial dependence between micro-finance and regional economic growth. Micro-financial efficiency has a positive effect on the economic development of the region. It also promotes neighboring regions under the geographic distance matrix and improves the level of social fixed investment. It can promote the development of the local economy. The financial scale has a certain degree of restraining effect on the economic development of the region. The government financial support has a strong negative spillover effect. If spatial factors are not taken into account, the relationship between microfinance and regional economic development will be miscalculated.
引文
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[2] BURGESS R,PANDE R.Do rural banks matter? Evidence from the Indian social banking experiment[J].American Economic Review,2005,(3):780-795.
[3]姚耀军.中国农村金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].经济科学,2004,(5):24-31.
[4]安翔.我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长的相关分析——基于帕加诺模型的实证检验[J].经济问题,2005,(10):51-53.
[5]邓莉,冉光和.重庆农村金融发展与农村经济增长的灰色关联分析[J].中国农村经济,2005,(8):52-57+67.
[6] BECK T,DEMIRGUC-KUNT A,MARTINEZPERIA M S.Reaching out:access to and use of banking services across countries[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2007,(1):234-266.
[7]张立军.金融发展影响城乡收入差距的实证研究[D].上海:复旦大学,2007.
[8]禹跃军,王菁华.基于VAR模型的中国农村金融发展与农村经济增长关系研究[J].经济问题,2011,(12):106-110.
[9]田剑英,黄春旭.民间资本金融深化与农村经济发展的实证研究——基于浙江省小额贷款公司的试点[J].管理世界,2013,(8):167-168.
[10]李海峰.微型金融机构的绩效分析:一个全球视角[J].农村金融研究,2015,(2):64-70.
[11]温涛,冉光和,熊德平.中国金融发展与农民收入增长[J].经济研究,2005,(9):30-43.
[12]朱喜,李子奈.改革以来我国农村信贷的效率分析[J].管理世界,2006,(7):68-76.
[13]陈银娥,王毓槐.微型金融与贫困农民收入增长——基于社会资本视角的实证分析[J].福建论坛(人文社会科学版),2012,(2):12-17.
[14]石丹,程慧.财政支持农村微型金融绩效的实证研究[J].金融理论与实践,2014,(5):35-40.
[15]李延敏,焦倩雯.中国微型金融机构的可持续发展方向——基于组织发展能力、社会责任视角[J].金融理论与实践,2016,(8):49-54.
[16]王劲屹.农村金融发展、资本存量提升与农村经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(2):64-81.
[17] GALOR O,ZEIRA J.Income distribution and macroeconomics[J].Review of Economics Studies,1993,(1):35-52.
[18] HONOHAN P.Financial development,growth and poverty:how close are the links?[R].World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2004.
[19] DFID.Financial sector development:a pre-requisite for growth and poverty reduction[R].Department for International Development,2004.
[20] JEANNENEY S G,KPODAR K.Financial development and poverty reduction:can there be a benefit without a cost?[J].The Journal of Development Studies,2011,(1):143-163.
[21]丁志国,张洋,高启然.基于区域经济差异的影响农村经济发展的农村金融因素识别[J].中国农村经济,2014,(3):4-13+26.
[22]张兵,翁辰.农村金融发展的减贫效应——空间溢出和门槛特征[J].农业技术经济,2015,(9):37-47.
[23]程华.我国微型金融对农村减贫的影响研究[D].西安:西北大学,2015.
[24]达潭枫,李苏.微型金融助力少数民族地区农牧民就业增收效应分析——以南疆四地州为例[J].区域金融研究,2018,(10):39-46.