1980～2017年厦门地区小时尺度极端降水特征分析
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摘要
利用1980～2017年厦门逐小时降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析厦门地区极端降水事件的气候特征,并初步讨论其成因。研究结果表明:1)极端降水事件的年发生频率呈现减少的趋势,厦门岛的减少趋势要比内陆更为显著。2)小时尺度的极端降水事件在较小尺度空间内无论是发生频率还是强度都存在明显的区域性差异,内陆地区在发生频率和强度上均高于厦门岛,但强度的平均值一致。3)造成极端降水事件的天气系统有4类,分别是热带气旋型、冷式切变型、西南风气流型和低槽冷锋型。随着城市抗灾能力的提升,对极端降水预报的要求也不断提高,基于小时值的结论可以为未来厦门地区极端降水事件的预报提供参考基础,进而提升预报的有效性和针对性。
Based on the hourly precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data from 1980 to 2017, extreme precipitation events in Xiamen are analyzed to explore their climatic characteristics and related weather patterns. The results show the following: 1) Interannual variabilities show decreasing trends; the island exhibits a significant decreasing trend than the inland. 2) The extreme precipitation events have significant regional differences, the intensity and frequency of inland events are stronger than those of island events. However, the average intensities in both inland and island are the same. 3)The induced weather systems are categorized into four types, thase are the type of tropical cyclones, type of cold shear,type of south-west wind, and type of trough combined with cold front. With continuous development of the city, a more accurate extreme precipitation forecast is required. The results of this study are based on the hourly data, and it will possibly make the operational forecast more efficient.
Based on the hourly precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data from 1980 to 2017, extreme precipitation events in Xiamen are analyzed to explore their climatic characteristics and related weather patterns. The results show the following: 1) Interannual variabilities show decreasing trends; the island exhibits a significant decreasing trend than the inland. 2) The extreme precipitation events have significant regional differences, the intensity and frequency of inland events are stronger than those of island events. However, the average intensities in both inland and island are the same. 3)The induced weather systems are categorized into four types, thase are the type of tropical cyclones, type of cold shear,type of south-west wind, and type of trough combined with cold front. With continuous development of the city, a more accurate extreme precipitation forecast is required. The results of this study are based on the hourly data, and it will possibly make the operational forecast more efficient.
引文
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李聪,肖子牛,张晓玲.2012.近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J].气象,38(4):419-424.Li Cong,Xiao Ziniu,Zhang Xiaoling.2012.Climatic characteristics of precipitation in various regions of China for the past 60 years[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(4):419-424.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.005
李建,宇如聪,孙溦.2013a.中国大陆地区小时极端降水阈值的计算与分析[J].暴雨灾害,32(1):11-16.Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Sun Wei.2013a.Calculation and analysis of the thresholds of hourly extreme precipitation in mainland China[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(1):11-16.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.01.002
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刘蕾,张凌云,李家文.2015.中尺度地形对柳州一次大暴雨过程影响的数值试验[J].暴雨灾害,34(1):74-79.Liu Lei,Zhang Lingyun,Li Jiawen.2015.Case study of the impact of mesoscale topography on the rainstorm over Liuzhou[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),34(1):74-79.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2015.01.010
龙妍妍,范广洲,段炼,等.2016.中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,21(4):429-438.Long Yanyan,Fan Guangzhou,Duan Lian,et al.2016.A study on the characteristics of summertime extreme precipitation events over China in recent 54years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(4):429-438.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15130
宁亮,钱永甫.2006.1961~2003年期间年、季和各类降水的趋势分析[C]//中国气象学会2006年年会“气候变化及其机理和模拟”分会场论文集.成都:中国气象学会,4pp.Ning Liang,Qian Yongfu.2006.The trend analysis of annual,seasonal and other types of precipitation during 1961-2003[C]//The 3rd Changjing River Meteorological Technology Forum(in Chinese),Chengdu:Chinese Meteorological Society,4pp.
沈迪桑,陈海山.2018.中国东部春季极端降水与同期欧亚大陆地表感热的可能联系[J].气候与环境研究,23(1):103-112.Shen Disang,Chen Haishan.2018.Possible Linkage between spring extreme precipitation over East China and surface sensible heat flux over the Eurasian Continent[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),23(1):103-112.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16226
Trenberth K E,Dai A G,Rasmussen R M,et al.2003.The changing character of precipitation[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,84(9):1205-1217.doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205
王萃萃,翟盘茂.2009.中国大城市极端强降水事件变化的初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,14(5):553-560.Wang Cuicui,Zhai Panmao.2009.Changes of precipitation extremes in China’s large cities[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),14(5):553-560.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2009.05.11
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2013.厦门市气候公报[R],7-8.Xiamen Bureau of Meteorology,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2013.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),7-8.
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2015.厦门市气候公报[R],6-7.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2015.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),6-7.
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2017.厦门市气候公报[R],5-6.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2017.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),5-6.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.2008.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,13(1):75-83.Yang Jinhu,Jiang Zhihong,Wang Pengxiang,et al.2008.Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),13(1):75-83.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.01.10
Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et al.2014.An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J].J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,31(2):287-301.doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00119.1
翟盘茂,任福民,张强.1999.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报,57(2):208-216.Zhai Panmao,Ren Fumin,Zhang Qiang.1999.Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),57(2):208-216.doi:10.11676/qxxb1999.019
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J.Climate,18(7):1096-1108.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
张婷,魏凤英.2009.华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征[J].气象学报,67(3):442-451.Zhang Ting,Wei Fengying.2009.Probability distribution of precipitation extremes during rainingseasons in South China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(3):442-451.doi:10.11676/qxxb2009.044
政府间气候变化专门委员会.2015.气候变化2014综合报告[R],164pp.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2015.The Fifth assessment report(AR5)[R](in Chinese),164pp.
(1)厦门市气象局.2016.关于印发《厦门市气象局强降水及台风监测预警信息直报规定》的通知,4pp.
李博,刘黎平,赵思雄,等.2013.局地低矮地形对华南暴雨影响的数值试验[J].高原气象,32(6):1638-1650.Li Bo,Liu Liping,Zhao Sixiong,et al.2013.Numerical experiment of the effect of local low terrain on heavy rainstorm of South China[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),32(6):1638-1650.doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00156
李聪,肖子牛,张晓玲.2012.近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J].气象,38(4):419-424.Li Cong,Xiao Ziniu,Zhang Xiaoling.2012.Climatic characteristics of precipitation in various regions of China for the past 60 years[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),38(4):419-424.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2012.4.005
李建,宇如聪,孙溦.2013a.中国大陆地区小时极端降水阈值的计算与分析[J].暴雨灾害,32(1):11-16.Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Sun Wei.2013a.Calculation and analysis of the thresholds of hourly extreme precipitation in mainland China[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(1):11-16.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.01.002
李建,宇如聪,孙溦.2013b.从小时尺度考察中国中东部极端降水的持续性和季节特征[J].气象学报,71(4):652-659.Li Jian,Yu Rucong,Sun Wei.2013b.Duration and seasonality of the hourly extreme rainfall in the central-eastern part of China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(4):652-659.doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.052
刘蕾,张凌云,李家文.2015.中尺度地形对柳州一次大暴雨过程影响的数值试验[J].暴雨灾害,34(1):74-79.Liu Lei,Zhang Lingyun,Li Jiawen.2015.Case study of the impact of mesoscale topography on the rainstorm over Liuzhou[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),34(1):74-79.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2015.01.010
龙妍妍,范广洲,段炼,等.2016.中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究[J].气候与环境研究,21(4):429-438.Long Yanyan,Fan Guangzhou,Duan Lian,et al.2016.A study on the characteristics of summertime extreme precipitation events over China in recent 54years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),21(4):429-438.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2016.15130
宁亮,钱永甫.2006.1961~2003年期间年、季和各类降水的趋势分析[C]//中国气象学会2006年年会“气候变化及其机理和模拟”分会场论文集.成都:中国气象学会,4pp.Ning Liang,Qian Yongfu.2006.The trend analysis of annual,seasonal and other types of precipitation during 1961-2003[C]//The 3rd Changjing River Meteorological Technology Forum(in Chinese),Chengdu:Chinese Meteorological Society,4pp.
沈迪桑,陈海山.2018.中国东部春季极端降水与同期欧亚大陆地表感热的可能联系[J].气候与环境研究,23(1):103-112.Shen Disang,Chen Haishan.2018.Possible Linkage between spring extreme precipitation over East China and surface sensible heat flux over the Eurasian Continent[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),23(1):103-112.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2017.16226
Trenberth K E,Dai A G,Rasmussen R M,et al.2003.The changing character of precipitation[J].Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,84(9):1205-1217.doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1205
王萃萃,翟盘茂.2009.中国大城市极端强降水事件变化的初步分析[J].气候与环境研究,14(5):553-560.Wang Cuicui,Zhai Panmao.2009.Changes of precipitation extremes in China’s large cities[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),14(5):553-560.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2009.05.11
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2013.厦门市气候公报[R],7-8.Xiamen Bureau of Meteorology,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2013.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),7-8.
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2015.厦门市气候公报[R],6-7.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2015.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),6-7.
厦门市气象局,厦门市气候变化检测评估中心.2017.厦门市气候公报[R],5-6.Xiamen Meteorological Bureau,Xiamen Climate Change Assessment Center.2017.Xiamen climate bulletion[R](in Chinese),5-6.
杨金虎,江志红,王鹏祥,等.2008.中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J].气候与环境研究,13(1):75-83.Yang Jinhu,Jiang Zhihong,Wang Pengxiang,et al.2008.Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),13(1):75-83.doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.01.10
Ying M,Zhang W,Yu H,et al.2014.An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J].J.Atmos.Oceanic Technol.,31(2):287-301.doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00119.1
翟盘茂,任福民,张强.1999.中国降水极值变化趋势检测[J].气象学报,57(2):208-216.Zhai Panmao,Ren Fumin,Zhang Qiang.1999.Detection of trends in China’s precipitation extremes[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),57(2):208-216.doi:10.11676/qxxb1999.019
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H,et al.2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J.Climate,18(7):1096-1108.doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
张婷,魏凤英.2009.华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征[J].气象学报,67(3):442-451.Zhang Ting,Wei Fengying.2009.Probability distribution of precipitation extremes during rainingseasons in South China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),67(3):442-451.doi:10.11676/qxxb2009.044
政府间气候变化专门委员会.2015.气候变化2014综合报告[R],164pp.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.2015.The Fifth assessment report(AR5)[R](in Chinese),164pp.
(1)厦门市气象局.2016.关于印发《厦门市气象局强降水及台风监测预警信息直报规定》的通知,4pp.