基于T-S模糊故障树的地连墙+支撑支护基坑坍塌可能性评价
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摘要
针对基坑支撑围护结构复杂、坍塌事故频发,且传统故障树分析方法的应用受概率和精确与或关系限制的问题,提出了一种基于T-S模糊故障树的地连墙+支撑支护基坑坍塌可能性评价方法。该方法利用模糊数描述各底事件的发生概率和故障状态,克服了传统故障树过度依赖精确概率以及不能考虑事件中间故障状态对系统影响的问题;同时,以T-S模糊模型替换传统的逻辑与或关系,体现了故障机制和事件联系的模糊性,降低了故障树的建立难度。该方法实现了用底事件实际故障状态和底事件模糊概率两种不同的方式计算基坑坍塌可能性,并可根据底事件重要度分析结果指导风险控制工作。实例分析表明:该方法比传统故障树更加贴合工程实际,可以更加科学、可靠地评价发生坍塌的可能性并确定关键致险因子,可作为基坑坍塌可能性评价的有效工具。
Due to the complexity of foundation pit supporting structure, frequent occurance of collapse accidents and applicating limitation of traditional fault tree analysis(FTA) methodinduced by probability and accuracy logical relationship, a method for eveluating the foundation pit collapse probability based on T-S fuzzy fault tree is proposed. This method uses fuzzy numbers to describe the probability and fault state of each bottom event, which sloves the problems suffered by traditional fault tree that relies too much on accurate probability and fails to take the intermediate fault state of events into conisderation. At the same time, T-S model is used to replace the traditional logic and/or relationship, which reflects the fuzziness of fault mechanism and event connection,reducing the difficulty of building fault tree. This method can use the actual failure state or the fuzzy probability of the bottom event two different ways to calculate the collapse possibility of foundation pit, which can also guide the risk control work according to the analysis result of bottom event importance. Case analysis shows that this method is more suitable for engineering practice than traditional fault tree. It can scientifically and accurately evaluate the possibility of collapse and determine the key risk factors which can be an effective tool for evaluating the possibility of foundation pit collapse.
Due to the complexity of foundation pit supporting structure, frequent occurance of collapse accidents and applicating limitation of traditional fault tree analysis(FTA) methodinduced by probability and accuracy logical relationship, a method for eveluating the foundation pit collapse probability based on T-S fuzzy fault tree is proposed. This method uses fuzzy numbers to describe the probability and fault state of each bottom event, which sloves the problems suffered by traditional fault tree that relies too much on accurate probability and fails to take the intermediate fault state of events into conisderation. At the same time, T-S model is used to replace the traditional logic and/or relationship, which reflects the fuzziness of fault mechanism and event connection,reducing the difficulty of building fault tree. This method can use the actual failure state or the fuzzy probability of the bottom event two different ways to calculate the collapse possibility of foundation pit, which can also guide the risk control work according to the analysis result of bottom event importance. Case analysis shows that this method is more suitable for engineering practice than traditional fault tree. It can scientifically and accurately evaluate the possibility of collapse and determine the key risk factors which can be an effective tool for evaluating the possibility of foundation pit collapse.
引文
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[15]罗彦斌.寒区隧道冻害等级划分及防治技术研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.LUO Yan-bin.Study on frost damage grades and its prevention and control technologies in cold region tunnel[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2010.
[16]边亦海,黄宏伟,李剑.可信性方法在深基坑施工期风险分析中的应用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):70-73.BIAN Yi-hai,HUANG Hong-wei,LI Jian.Risk analysis in the construction stage of deep excavation engineering based on dependability method[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):70-73.
[17]郑小红.深圳地铁工地发生坍塌事故已有两人遇难[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2017-05-11[2017-12-07].http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2017/05-11/8221616.shtm.ZHENG Xiao-hong.Two people have been died in the collapse of Shenzhen Metro construction site[EB/OL].China News,2017-05-11[2017-12-07].http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2017/05-11/8221616.shtm.
[18]吴静.深基坑支护结构事故预警系统研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2002.WU Jing.Research on early warning system of deep foundation pit support structure[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2002.
[19]中国土木工程学会,同济大学.GB50625-2011城市轨道交通地下工程建设风险管理规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2011.China Civil Engineering Society.Tongji University.GB50625-2011 Code for risk management of underground works in urban rail transit[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2011.
[2]李凤伟,杜修力,张明聚.地铁工程建设施工事故统计分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2014,10(2):474-479.LI Feng-wei,DU Xiu-li,ZHANG Ming-ju.Statistical analysis of accidents in metro construction[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2014,10(2):474-479.
[3]周继忠.灰色关联故障树分析法在基坑工程放坡开挖中应用[J].土木工程学报,2009,42(8):109-114.ZHOU Ji-zhong.Application of gray correlation fault tree analysis for unprotected open cut excavations[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2009,42(8):109-114.
[4]周红波,高文杰,蔡来炳,等.基于WBS-RBS的地铁基坑故障树风险识别与分析[J].岩土力学,2009,30(9):2703-2707,2726.ZHOU Hong-bo,GAO Wen-jie,CAI Lai-bing,et al.Risk identification and analysis of subway foundation pit by using fault tree analysis method based on WBS-RBS[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(9):2703-2707,2726.
[5]黄宏伟,闫玉茹,胡群芳.复合式土压平衡盾构刀盘失效风险分析[J].岩土力学,2009,30(8):2324-2330.HUANG Hong-wei,YAN Yu-ru,HU Qun-fang.Risk analysis of cutter head failure of composite EPB shield[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2009,30(8):2324-2330.
[6]FURUTA H,SHIRAISHI N.Fuzzy importance in fault tree analysis[J].Fuzzy Set and System,1984,12:205-213.
[7]SINGER D.A fuzzy set approach to fault tree and reliability analysis[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,1990,32(2):145-155.
[8]边亦海.基于风险分析的软土地区深基坑支护方案选择[D].上海:同济大学,2006.BIAN Yi-hai.Selection of supporting system of deep excavations in soft soil area based on risk analysis[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2006.
[9]李立.地铁车站施工风险管理研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,2014.LI Li.Study on the metro station construction risk management[D].Xuzhou:China University of Mining and Technology,2014.
[10]宋华,张洪钺,王行仁.T-S模糊故障树分析方法[J].控制与决策,2005,20(8):854-859.SONG Hua,ZHANG Hong-yue,WANG Xing-ren.Fuzzy fault tree analysis based on T-S model[J].Control and Decision,2005,20(8):854-859.
[11]姚成玉,赵静一.基于T-S模型的液压系统模糊故障树分析方法研究[J].中国机械工程,2009,20(16):1913-1917.YAO Cheng-yu,ZHAO Jing-yi.Research on fuzzy fault tree analysis method for hydraulic system based on T-Smodel[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2009,20(16):1913-1917.
[12]黄亮亮,姚安林,杨鲁明,等.基于T-S模糊故障树的输气站场设备失效可能性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(8):144-149.HUANG Liang-liang,YAO An-lin,YANG Lu-ming,et al.Study on failure possibility of facilities in gas transmission station based on T-S fuzzy FTA[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(8):144-149.
[13]SONG HUA,ZHANG HONGYUE,CHAN C W.Fuzzy fault tree analysis based on T-S model with application to INS/GPS navigation system[J].Soft Computing,2009,13(1):31-40.
[14]DONG LIJING,SONG HUA,LIU WENJING.The application of T-S fuzzy fault tree analysis in satellite attitude control system[C]//IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics.[S.l.]:[s.n.],2012:208-213.
[15]罗彦斌.寒区隧道冻害等级划分及防治技术研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.LUO Yan-bin.Study on frost damage grades and its prevention and control technologies in cold region tunnel[D].Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University,2010.
[16]边亦海,黄宏伟,李剑.可信性方法在深基坑施工期风险分析中的应用[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):70-73.BIAN Yi-hai,HUANG Hong-wei,LI Jian.Risk analysis in the construction stage of deep excavation engineering based on dependability method[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2006,2(1):70-73.
[17]郑小红.深圳地铁工地发生坍塌事故已有两人遇难[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2017-05-11[2017-12-07].http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2017/05-11/8221616.shtm.ZHENG Xiao-hong.Two people have been died in the collapse of Shenzhen Metro construction site[EB/OL].China News,2017-05-11[2017-12-07].http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2017/05-11/8221616.shtm.
[18]吴静.深基坑支护结构事故预警系统研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2002.WU Jing.Research on early warning system of deep foundation pit support structure[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2002.
[19]中国土木工程学会,同济大学.GB50625-2011城市轨道交通地下工程建设风险管理规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2011.China Civil Engineering Society.Tongji University.GB50625-2011 Code for risk management of underground works in urban rail transit[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2011.