住房负担降低了超大城市流动人口的定居意愿吗?——以上海为例
|
摘要
随着城市住房价格上涨,住房负担更大程度地影响着流动人口定居超大城市的意愿,住房政策成为促进人的城镇化和共享发展的重要着力点。以上海为例,使用2015年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用Ologit模型,研究超大城市内部流动人口住房负担对其定居意愿的影响。研究发现:住房支出与流动人口定居意愿显著负相关,住房支出收入比却显著正相关,可以解释为超大城市流动人口的住房支出收入比仍处于合理范围之内,住房支出收入比体现的是住房支付意愿而非住房支付压力,因此,愿意付出更多住房成本的流动人口定居意愿更高。分组回归表明,住房支出因素对定居意愿的影响在新生代与老生代流动人口中无显著差异,而在不同职业流动人口中存在不同,制造业与办事人员的定居意愿对住房负担因素更敏感。因此,建议可通过提供价格收入比合理、居住条件更优的住房,提升流动人口住房支出的意愿,从而促进其定居,并可针对不同职业采取差异性政策。
Along with the rising of housing price in megacities, the housing expenditure becomes an important influential factor of migrants' settlement intention. Housing policy is crucial in promoting the urbanization of people and shared development. Taking Shanghai as an example, the paper explores the influence of housing expenditure on migrants' settlement intention in megacity with Ologit model, using the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015. The results show negative correlation between the housing expenditure and the migrants' settlement intention, and a positive correlation between the housing expenditure to income ratio and the settlement intention. That is because that the negative effect of housing expenditure to income ratio will appear when the ratio is beyond reasonable portion and the ratio in Shanghai is still beneath the range. In grouping regression, the results do not show significant difference between new and old generation migrants but show differences in different occupation group. Based on the above findings, the paper suggests offering housing with better condition and reasonable rent to income ratio to enhance the settlement intention of migrants.
Along with the rising of housing price in megacities, the housing expenditure becomes an important influential factor of migrants' settlement intention. Housing policy is crucial in promoting the urbanization of people and shared development. Taking Shanghai as an example, the paper explores the influence of housing expenditure on migrants' settlement intention in megacity with Ologit model, using the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015. The results show negative correlation between the housing expenditure and the migrants' settlement intention, and a positive correlation between the housing expenditure to income ratio and the settlement intention. That is because that the negative effect of housing expenditure to income ratio will appear when the ratio is beyond reasonable portion and the ratio in Shanghai is still beneath the range. In grouping regression, the results do not show significant difference between new and old generation migrants but show differences in different occupation group. Based on the above findings, the paper suggests offering housing with better condition and reasonable rent to income ratio to enhance the settlement intention of migrants.
引文
[1]Liu,Z.,Wang,Y.,&Chen,S.(2017).Does formal housing encourage settlement intention of rural migrants in Chinese cities?A structural equation model analysis.Urban Studies,54(8),1834-1850.
[2]陈春,冯长春.农民工住房状况与留城意愿研究[J].经济体制改革,2011(01):145-149.
[3]陈宏胜,王兴平,刘晔,等.“理性”与“感性”之间:上海流动人口迁居意愿研究[J].现代城市研究,2017(07):100-106.
[4]陈轶,张衔春,周方睿,等.新生代农民工留城意愿特征及影响因素研究--以江苏省南京市为例[J].江苏农业科学,2015(01):432-436.
[5]丁关良,莫秋羽.代际差异视角下农民工留城意愿的影响因素研究--基于全国9省的调研数据[J].中国农学通报,2015(06):271-277.
[6]董昕.房价压力、房租负担与人口持久性迁移意愿[J].财经问题研究,2016(03):3-10.
[7]董昕.住房支付能力与农业转移人口的持久性迁移意愿[J].中国人口科学,2015(06):91-99.
[8]李叶妍,王锐.中国城市包容度与流动人口的社会融合[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(01):146-154.
[9]孟凡礼,谢勇,赵霞.收入水平、收入感知与农民工的留城意愿[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(06):42-50.
[10]钱龙,钱文荣,洪名勇.就近务工提升了农民工城镇化意愿吗--基于贵阳市的调查[J].农业现代化研究,2016(01):102-109.
[11]钱文荣,李宝值.初衷达成度、公平感知度对农民工留城意愿的影响及其代际差异--基于长江三角洲16城市的调研数据[J].管理世界,2013(09):89-101.
[12]汪润泉,刘一伟.住房公积金能留住进城流动人口吗?--基于户籍差异视角的比较分析[J].人口与经济,2017(01):22-34.
[13]谢宝富,李阳,肖丽.广义居住因素对流动人口定居意愿的影响分析--以京、沪、穗城乡结合部流动人口为例[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2015(01):153-161.
[14]杨雪,魏洪英.流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制[J].人口研究,2017(05):63-73.
[15]湛东升,张文忠,党云晓,等.中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知及其对定居意愿的影响[J].地理科学进展,2017(10):1250-1259.
[16]赵智,郑循刚.期望激励、公平感知与留城倾向--基于四川省农业转移人口的调查分析[J].农村经济,2015(11):100-107.
[17]卓玛草,孔祥利.农民工留城意愿再研究--基于代际差异和职业流动的比较分析[J].人口学刊,2016(03):96-105.
[2]陈春,冯长春.农民工住房状况与留城意愿研究[J].经济体制改革,2011(01):145-149.
[3]陈宏胜,王兴平,刘晔,等.“理性”与“感性”之间:上海流动人口迁居意愿研究[J].现代城市研究,2017(07):100-106.
[4]陈轶,张衔春,周方睿,等.新生代农民工留城意愿特征及影响因素研究--以江苏省南京市为例[J].江苏农业科学,2015(01):432-436.
[5]丁关良,莫秋羽.代际差异视角下农民工留城意愿的影响因素研究--基于全国9省的调研数据[J].中国农学通报,2015(06):271-277.
[6]董昕.房价压力、房租负担与人口持久性迁移意愿[J].财经问题研究,2016(03):3-10.
[7]董昕.住房支付能力与农业转移人口的持久性迁移意愿[J].中国人口科学,2015(06):91-99.
[8]李叶妍,王锐.中国城市包容度与流动人口的社会融合[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(01):146-154.
[9]孟凡礼,谢勇,赵霞.收入水平、收入感知与农民工的留城意愿[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015(06):42-50.
[10]钱龙,钱文荣,洪名勇.就近务工提升了农民工城镇化意愿吗--基于贵阳市的调查[J].农业现代化研究,2016(01):102-109.
[11]钱文荣,李宝值.初衷达成度、公平感知度对农民工留城意愿的影响及其代际差异--基于长江三角洲16城市的调研数据[J].管理世界,2013(09):89-101.
[12]汪润泉,刘一伟.住房公积金能留住进城流动人口吗?--基于户籍差异视角的比较分析[J].人口与经济,2017(01):22-34.
[13]谢宝富,李阳,肖丽.广义居住因素对流动人口定居意愿的影响分析--以京、沪、穗城乡结合部流动人口为例[J].中南大学学报(社会科学版),2015(01):153-161.
[14]杨雪,魏洪英.流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制[J].人口研究,2017(05):63-73.
[15]湛东升,张文忠,党云晓,等.中国流动人口的城市宜居性感知及其对定居意愿的影响[J].地理科学进展,2017(10):1250-1259.
[16]赵智,郑循刚.期望激励、公平感知与留城倾向--基于四川省农业转移人口的调查分析[J].农村经济,2015(11):100-107.
[17]卓玛草,孔祥利.农民工留城意愿再研究--基于代际差异和职业流动的比较分析[J].人口学刊,2016(03):96-105.