矿山顶板事故的FTA-Fuzzy-Vensim分析方法探究
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摘要
为找出导致事故发生的薄弱环节,弥补事故树分析中基本事件相互独立、只设置0和1两种状态的不足,针对基本事件之间的关系及其相互作用对事故的影响,融合专家打分、模糊数学和系统动力学方法共同探究矿山顶板事故的FTA-Fuzzy-Vensim分析方法。首先绘制矿山顶板事故的事故树;然后通过专家打分确定各基本事件的概率,再由三角模糊概率确定最有可能发生事故的概率,并依据基本事件的敏感性分析找出事故树的薄弱事件,进而有针对性地提出治理措施;最后运用Vensim软件对提出的治理措施进行矿山顶板安全水平仿真模拟,验证治理措施的合理性和有效性。实证结果表明:导致事故发生的事故树基本事件中有若干薄弱事件,对薄弱事件采取治理措施后顶板安全水平由初值10上升到85且稳定在该水平,说明治理措施合理、有效。
This paper aims to figure out the weakness resulting in accidents and to make up for the deficiency of fault tree analysis,namely the basic events are independent from each other,and only two states of 0 and 1 are considered.Considering the relationship between basic events and the impact of interaction on accidents,the paper introduces the concepts of expert scoring,fuzzy mathematics and system dynamics,and explores the FTA-Fuzzy-Vensim analysis method with roof accidents as an example.Firstly,the paper draws the fault tree of the roof accident in mine.Then,the paper determines the weight of each basic event by the expert scoring method,and the probability of the most likely accident by the triangular fuzzy probability of 0.045 7.The paper finds out the weak event of the fault tree based on sensitivity analysis of the basic event,and proposes the countermeasures.Finally,the paper uses Vensim software to simulate the proposed measures and the safety level of the roof,and verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the measures.The Empirical results show that there are several weak basic events in the basic events that cause accidents by accident tree.After taking measures against weak events,the roof safety level rises from the initial value of 10 to 85 and keep stable at this level.The measures are reasonable and effective.
This paper aims to figure out the weakness resulting in accidents and to make up for the deficiency of fault tree analysis,namely the basic events are independent from each other,and only two states of 0 and 1 are considered.Considering the relationship between basic events and the impact of interaction on accidents,the paper introduces the concepts of expert scoring,fuzzy mathematics and system dynamics,and explores the FTA-Fuzzy-Vensim analysis method with roof accidents as an example.Firstly,the paper draws the fault tree of the roof accident in mine.Then,the paper determines the weight of each basic event by the expert scoring method,and the probability of the most likely accident by the triangular fuzzy probability of 0.045 7.The paper finds out the weak event of the fault tree based on sensitivity analysis of the basic event,and proposes the countermeasures.Finally,the paper uses Vensim software to simulate the proposed measures and the safety level of the roof,and verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the measures.The Empirical results show that there are several weak basic events in the basic events that cause accidents by accident tree.After taking measures against weak events,the roof safety level rises from the initial value of 10 to 85 and keep stable at this level.The measures are reasonable and effective.
引文
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[22]Granger C W J.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1980,2:329-352.
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[24]张赛,曹庆贵,贾红果.EPA体系对提升煤矿职工安全心理水平的应用研究[J].中国煤炭,2016(1):10-16.
[2]刘丛喜.采煤工作面顶板事故分析与预防[J].煤炭技术,2009,28(7):169-170.
[3]吴昕.深井高应力巷道支护参数优化研究[J].煤炭科学技术,2014,42(7):14-17.
[4]国家安监总局.国务院安委会办公室关于山西省朔州市中煤集团担水沟煤业有限公司“1·17”重大顶板事故的通报[EB/OL].(2017-01-23).http://www.chinacoal-safety.gov.cn/gk/sgcc/sgtb/201701/t20170123_203261.shtml.
[5]蒋绍军.基于事故树分析法的锚杆支护煤巷顶板安全评价[J].矿业安全与环保,2009,36(增刊):220-223.
[6]王文才,张世明,周连春,等.煤矿顶板冒顶的事故树分析[J].煤矿安全,2009(12):96-98.
[7]张景林,崔国璋.安全系统工程[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,2002:54.
[8]崔庆玲,罗云,崔刚,等.基于灰色理论的特种设备安全事故预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(5):141-144.
[9]边亦海,黄宏伟.SMW工法支护结构失效概率的模糊事故树分析[J].岩土工程学报,2006,28(5):664-668.
[10]钱辉,杨森,刘小琴,等.固体推进剂捏合工序燃爆事故的模糊事故树分析[J].安全与环境工程,2018,25(16):127-131,138.
[11]冯庚,赵坤鹏,马力,等.基于模糊事故树的溃坝风险评估与管理[J].人民黄河,2013,35(5):99-101,104.
[12]赵传奇,张巨伟,孙蕴,等.基于三角模糊数的加氢裂化装置火灾爆炸事故树的分析与应用[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(16):119-122,138.
[13]陈娇,雷娟.ISM-联系熵安全培训效果评价体系及应用[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(3):126-131.
[14]刘亚莲,周翠英.基于模糊事故树理论的堤防失事风险分析[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(6):86-87,77.
[15]闫放,许开立,姚锡文,等.基于BN-bow-tie的生物质气化中毒事故分析[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版)2015,36(3):437-441.
[16]王大庆,张鹏,郭龑,等.考虑相关性时LNG储罐泄漏模糊事故树定量分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(1):97-101.
[17]马欣,师统麾,薛涛,等.基于贝叶斯网络的LNG储罐泄露事故树改进研究[J].现代化工,2017,37(4):179-182.
[18]任平凡,伍爱友,施式亮.基于模糊事故树的公路隧道火灾危险性分析[J].湖南科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,23(8):17-21.
[19]Malhotra S P.Effect of wall thickness on plugging of open ended steel pipe piles in sand[C]//Proceedings of Sessions of GeoDenver 2007 Congress:Contemporary Issues in Deep Foundations(GSP158).Reston:American Society of Civil Engineers,2007:1-16.
[20]陈宝智.系统安全评价和预测[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2014:10-39.
[21]谢晓闻,方意,赵胜民.中国期货市场价格发现功能研究[J].系统工程学报,2016,31(3):364-372.
[22]Granger C W J.Testing for causality:A personal viewpoint[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1980,2:329-352.
[23]黄姗姗,曹庆贵,王林林.煤炭企业全面风险管理策略分析[J].中国矿业,2017,26(7):7-12.
[24]张赛,曹庆贵,贾红果.EPA体系对提升煤矿职工安全心理水平的应用研究[J].中国煤炭,2016(1):10-16.