2016-2017年河北省流行性感冒病例时空分布特征分析
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摘要
目的分析2016-2017年河北省流行性感冒(流感)时空分布特征,为流感的防控提供科学依据。方法收集传染病报告信息管理系统中河北省2016-2017年流感监测资料,进行全局及局部空间自相关分析和时空聚集性分析,并进行可视化展示。结果 2016-2017年,河北省共报告流行性感冒病例67 868例,年均报告发病率为45.56/10万,2017年报告发病率最高,为52.28/10万。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,Moran′s I系数均大于0(P<0.05),提示流感发病存在聚集性。局部自相关分析结果显示,高值聚集地区主要分布在河北省南部和中部部分地区,低值聚集地区主要分布在东部唐山和秦皇岛地区。时空扫描分析进一步分析显示一级高发聚集地区主要集中在邯郸和廊坊地区。高发聚集时间主要集中在冬季。结论 2016-2017年河北省流感发病存在明显的时空聚集性,重点地区应加强防控。
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of influenza in Hebei province during 2016 and 2017. Methods The influenza data from 2016 to 2017 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Management Information System.Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatial visualization and temporal-spatial analysis were performed. Results A total of 67 868 influenza cases were reported with an annual incidence rate at 45.56/100 000 population in Hebei province of China from 2016 to 2017, and the incidence in 2017 was higher at 52.28/100 000.The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I co-efficients were above 0(P<0.05), suggesting that there was a spatial aggregation between space and the incidence of influenza.Local indicators of spatial association analysis revealed that the high-high clusters were mainly distributed in the southern and central parts of Hebei province, while the low-low clusters were in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao areas.It was showed that the primary high incidence areas were mainly concentrated in Handan and Langfang districts by Spatio-temporal analysis.The peak season was in winter. Conclusions Influenza epidemic has obvious temporal and spatial aggregation in Hebei province of China during 2016 and 2017.
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of influenza in Hebei province during 2016 and 2017. Methods The influenza data from 2016 to 2017 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Management Information System.Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatial visualization and temporal-spatial analysis were performed. Results A total of 67 868 influenza cases were reported with an annual incidence rate at 45.56/100 000 population in Hebei province of China from 2016 to 2017, and the incidence in 2017 was higher at 52.28/100 000.The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I co-efficients were above 0(P<0.05), suggesting that there was a spatial aggregation between space and the incidence of influenza.Local indicators of spatial association analysis revealed that the high-high clusters were mainly distributed in the southern and central parts of Hebei province, while the low-low clusters were in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao areas.It was showed that the primary high incidence areas were mainly concentrated in Handan and Langfang districts by Spatio-temporal analysis.The peak season was in winter. Conclusions Influenza epidemic has obvious temporal and spatial aggregation in Hebei province of China during 2016 and 2017.
引文
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[3] Ren SH,Liang X,Du CH.Analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in Chengdu[J].Jibing Jiance,2017,32(8):641-645.(in Chinese)任书华,梁娴,杜长慧.四川省成都市甲型 H1N1 流行性感冒时空分布特征分析[J].疾病监测,2017,32(8):641-645.
[4] Chen XY,Wang M.Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of category C infectious diseases in a city of Guangdong province from 2004 to 2016[J].Xiandai Yufang Yixue,2018,45(10):1740-1744.(in Chinese)陈秀云,王曼.2004-2016年广东省某市丙类传染病流行特征分析[J].现代预防医学,2018,45(10):1740-1744.
[5] Li BD,Li HY,Zhang H,et al.Analysis on the pathogenic characteristics of influenza viruses in Gansu Province,2013-2015[J].Zhonghua Shiyan He Linchang Bingduxue Zazhi,2016,30(5):448-451.(in Chinese)李保娣,李红育,张慧,等.2013-2015年度甘肃省流感病毒病原学特征分析[J].中华实验和临床病毒学杂志,2016,30(5):448-451.
[6] Li Y,Han GY,Liu YF,et al.Etiological analysis on surveillance data of influenza in children in Hebei Province from 2009 to 2015[J].Guoji Bingduxue Zazhi,2016,23(4):220-223.(in Chinese)李岩,韩光跃,刘艳芳,等.2009-2015年河北省儿童流感病原学分析[J].国际病毒学杂志,2016,23(4):220-223.
[7] Deng LQ,Luan B,Zhao QL,et al.Analysis of surveillance data of influenza in Jilin Province from 2011 to 2015[J].Zhonghua Shiyan He Linchang Bingduxue Zazhi,2016,30 (1):50-52.(in Chinese)邓立权,栾博,赵庆龙,等.2011-2015年吉林省流行性感冒监测分析[J].中华实验和临床病毒学杂志,2016,30(1):50-52.
[8] Nonthabenjawan N,Cardona C,Amonsin A,et al.Time-space analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N2 outbreak in the US[J].Virol J,2016,13(1):147.
[9] Zhang RJ,Li N,Wang Z,et al.Spatial autocorrelation of human H7N9 avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang Province,2013-2014[J].Zhongguo Gonggong Weisheng,2017,33(1):70-73.(in Chinese)张人杰,李娜,王臻,等.浙江省 2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):70-73.
[10] Yang SQ,Xing XY,Dong WH,et al.The spatio-temporal response of influenzaA(H1N1) to meteorological factors in Beijing[J].Dili Xuebao,2018,73(3):460-473.(in Chinese)杨斯棋,邢潇月,董卫华,等.北京市甲型H1N1流感对气象因子的时空响应[J].地理学报,2018,73(3):460-473.