2018年夏季我国极端降水及滑坡泥石流灾害预测
|
摘要
基于动力降尺度预测系统,中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心对2018年夏季我国极端降水日数及滑坡泥石流灾害的发生风险进行了超前4个月的实时预测试验。与实测结果相比,该系统对2018年夏季我国极端降水日数空间分布的预测与实况基本相符,但大部分地区存在明显低估;滑坡泥石流的预测结果与目前统计的由于降水引发的滑坡泥石流灾害事件的分布基本吻合。此次预测试验表明,中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心发展的动力降尺度预测系统对我国夏季极端降水和滑坡泥石流灾害具有一定的预测能力,具有实时预测价值。
In this study,based on a dynamical downscaling prediction system,four-month leading real-time prediction experiments for JJA extreme precipitation and landslides were performed in February 2018 by the Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study results show that the spatial pattern of predicted summer extreme precipitation days is quite similar to the observations,yet with a significant underestimation over most regions of mainland China.The distribution of the predicted landslides is basically consistent with the reported landslide events caused by precipitation.The results show that the prediction system has a certain degree of predictability for summer extreme precipitations and landslide disasters,and possesses prospects for real-time prediction.
In this study,based on a dynamical downscaling prediction system,four-month leading real-time prediction experiments for JJA extreme precipitation and landslides were performed in February 2018 by the Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences. The study results show that the spatial pattern of predicted summer extreme precipitation days is quite similar to the observations,yet with a significant underestimation over most regions of mainland China.The distribution of the predicted landslides is basically consistent with the reported landslide events caused by precipitation.The results show that the prediction system has a certain degree of predictability for summer extreme precipitations and landslide disasters,and possesses prospects for real-time prediction.
引文
Barnston A G,Mason S J, 2011.Evaluation of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts for the extreme 15%tails[J].Wea Forecasting,26(4):545-554.
Chen H P,Sun J Q, 2017.Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Geophys Res Lett,44:2436-2444.
陈海山,范苏丹,张新华, 2009.中国近50 a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,32(6):744-751. Chen H S,Fan S D,Zhang X H, 2009.Seasonal differences of variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events over China in the last 50 years[J].Trans Atmos Sci, 32(6):744-751.(in Chinese).
陈红,2013 .淮河流域夏季极端降水事件的统计预测模型研究[J].气候与环境研究,18(2):221-231. Chen H,2013.Statistical prediction model for summer extreme precipitation events over Huaihe River Valley[J].Climatic Environ Res,18(2):221-231.(in Chinese).
陈晓燕,尚可政,王式功,等, 2010.近50年中国不同强度降水日数时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,27 (5):766-772. Chen X Y,Shang K Z,WangS G, et al.,2010.Analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation under different intensities in China in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Res, 27(5):766-772.(in Chinese).
丁一汇,2004 .我国短期气候预测业务系统[J].气象,30 (12):11-17. Ding Y H,2004.China operational short-range climate prediction system[J].Meteor Mon, 30(12):11-17.(in Chinese).
Han J,Pan H L, 2011.Revision of convection and vertical diffusion schemes in the NCEP global forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,26(4):520-533.
何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2018.基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的“6. 18”门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究[J].大气科学,42 (3):590-606. He S S,Wang J,Wang H J,2018.Hindcast study of“6. 18”Mentougou debris-flow event based on satellite rainfall and WRF forecasted rainfall[J].Chin J Atmos Sci, 42(3):590-606.(in Chinese).
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J, 2006.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,134(9)2318-2341.
Iacono M J,Delamere J S,Mlawer E J, et al.,2008.Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:calculations with the AER radiative transfer models[J].J Geophys Res,113(D13):D13103.
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等, 2009. 7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120 . Jiang Z H,Chen W L,Song J, et al., 2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(1):109-120.(in Chinese).
李娟,董文杰,严中伟,2012 .中国东部1960—2008年夏季极端温度与极端降水的变化及其环流背景[J].科学通报,57 (8):641-646. Li J,Dong W J,Yan Z W,2012.Changes of climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in summer in eastern China associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in East Asia during 1960—2008[J].Chin Sci Bull,57(15):1856-1861.(in Chinese).
Lin Q G,Wang Y,2018.Spatial and temporal analysis of a fatal landslide inventory in China from 1950 to 2016[J].Landslides, 15(12):2357-2372.
刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,等, 2011.基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数[J].应用气象学报,22 (1):77-85. Liu L L,Sun L H,Liao Y M, et al.,2011.Prediction of monthly precipitation and number of extreme precipitation days with statistical downscaling methods based on the monthly dynamical climate model[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,22(1):77-85.(in Chinese).
马洁华,王会军, 2014.一个基于耦合气候系统模式的气候预测系统的研制[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(8):1689-1700. Ma J H,Wang H J,2014.Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model[J]. Science China:Earth Sciences,44(8):1689-1700.
Ma J H,Wang H J,Fan K,2015.Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4[J].Adv Atmos Sci, 32(5):577-584.
Morrison H,Milbrandt J A,2015.Parameterization of cloud microphysics based on the prediction of bulk ice particle properties.part I:scheme description and idealized tests[J].J Atmos Sci, 72(1):287-311.
Niu G Y,Yang Z L,Mitchell K E, et al.,2011.The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].J Geophys Res, 116(D12):D12109.
任福民,高辉,刘绿柳,等, 2014.极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述[J].气象,40(7),860-874. Ren F M,Gao H,Liu L L, et al.,2014.Research progresses on extreme weather and climate events and their operational applications in climate monitoring and prediction[J].Meteor Mon, 40(7), 860-874.(in Chinese).
任国玉,封国林,严中伟, 2010.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):337-353. Ren G Y,Feng G L,Yan Z W,2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic Environ Res,15(4):337-353.(in Chinese).
孙建奇,敖娟,2013 .中国冬季降水和极端降水对变暖的响应[J].科学通报,58 (8):674-679. Sun J Q,Ao J,2013.Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(12):1395-1401.(in Chinese).
王会军,范可,郎咸梅,等, 2012.我国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang H J,Fan K,Lang X M,et al.,2012.Advances in climate prediction theory and technique of China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al., 2012.Extreme climate in China:facts, simulation and projection[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,21(3):279-304.
汪君,王会军,洪阳, 2016.中国洪涝、滑坡灾害监测和动力数值预报系统研究[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang J,Wang H J,Hong Y,2016.A realtime monitoring and dynamical forecasting system for floods and landslides in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al., 2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Clim Dyn,45(7/8):2013-2031.
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H, et al.,2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J Climate,18(7)1096-1108.
翟盘茂,王萃萃,李威, 2007.极端降水事件变化的观测研究.气候变化研究进展,3(3):144-148. Zhai P M,Wang C C,Li W,2007.A review on study of change in precipitation extremes[J].Adv Clim Change Res,3(3):144-148.(in Chinese).
赵煜飞,朱江,2015 .近50年中国降水格点日值数据集精度及评估[J].高原气象,34 (1):50-58. Zhao Y F,Zhu J,2015.Assessing quality of grid daily precipitation datasets in China in recent 50 years[J].Plateau Meteor,34(1):50-58.(in Chinese).
Chen H P,Sun J Q, 2017.Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China[J].Geophys Res Lett,44:2436-2444.
陈海山,范苏丹,张新华, 2009.中国近50 a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,32(6):744-751. Chen H S,Fan S D,Zhang X H, 2009.Seasonal differences of variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events over China in the last 50 years[J].Trans Atmos Sci, 32(6):744-751.(in Chinese).
陈红,2013 .淮河流域夏季极端降水事件的统计预测模型研究[J].气候与环境研究,18(2):221-231. Chen H,2013.Statistical prediction model for summer extreme precipitation events over Huaihe River Valley[J].Climatic Environ Res,18(2):221-231.(in Chinese).
陈晓燕,尚可政,王式功,等, 2010.近50年中国不同强度降水日数时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,27 (5):766-772. Chen X Y,Shang K Z,WangS G, et al.,2010.Analysis on the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation under different intensities in China in recent 50 years[J].Arid Zone Res, 27(5):766-772.(in Chinese).
丁一汇,2004 .我国短期气候预测业务系统[J].气象,30 (12):11-17. Ding Y H,2004.China operational short-range climate prediction system[J].Meteor Mon, 30(12):11-17.(in Chinese).
Han J,Pan H L, 2011.Revision of convection and vertical diffusion schemes in the NCEP global forecast system[J].Wea Forecasting,26(4):520-533.
何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2018.基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的“6. 18”门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究[J].大气科学,42 (3):590-606. He S S,Wang J,Wang H J,2018.Hindcast study of“6. 18”Mentougou debris-flow event based on satellite rainfall and WRF forecasted rainfall[J].Chin J Atmos Sci, 42(3):590-606.(in Chinese).
Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J, 2006.A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,134(9)2318-2341.
Iacono M J,Delamere J S,Mlawer E J, et al.,2008.Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases:calculations with the AER radiative transfer models[J].J Geophys Res,113(D13):D13103.
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等, 2009. 7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120 . Jiang Z H,Chen W L,Song J, et al., 2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(1):109-120.(in Chinese).
李娟,董文杰,严中伟,2012 .中国东部1960—2008年夏季极端温度与极端降水的变化及其环流背景[J].科学通报,57 (8):641-646. Li J,Dong W J,Yan Z W,2012.Changes of climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in summer in eastern China associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in East Asia during 1960—2008[J].Chin Sci Bull,57(15):1856-1861.(in Chinese).
Lin Q G,Wang Y,2018.Spatial and temporal analysis of a fatal landslide inventory in China from 1950 to 2016[J].Landslides, 15(12):2357-2372.
刘绿柳,孙林海,廖要明,等, 2011.基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数[J].应用气象学报,22 (1):77-85. Liu L L,Sun L H,Liao Y M, et al.,2011.Prediction of monthly precipitation and number of extreme precipitation days with statistical downscaling methods based on the monthly dynamical climate model[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,22(1):77-85.(in Chinese).
马洁华,王会军, 2014.一个基于耦合气候系统模式的气候预测系统的研制[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(8):1689-1700. Ma J H,Wang H J,2014.Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model[J]. Science China:Earth Sciences,44(8):1689-1700.
Ma J H,Wang H J,Fan K,2015.Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4[J].Adv Atmos Sci, 32(5):577-584.
Morrison H,Milbrandt J A,2015.Parameterization of cloud microphysics based on the prediction of bulk ice particle properties.part I:scheme description and idealized tests[J].J Atmos Sci, 72(1):287-311.
Niu G Y,Yang Z L,Mitchell K E, et al.,2011.The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].J Geophys Res, 116(D12):D12109.
任福民,高辉,刘绿柳,等, 2014.极端天气气候事件监测与预测研究进展及其应用综述[J].气象,40(7),860-874. Ren F M,Gao H,Liu L L, et al.,2014.Research progresses on extreme weather and climate events and their operational applications in climate monitoring and prediction[J].Meteor Mon, 40(7), 860-874.(in Chinese).
任国玉,封国林,严中伟, 2010.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,15(4):337-353. Ren G Y,Feng G L,Yan Z W,2010.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic Environ Res,15(4):337-353.(in Chinese).
孙建奇,敖娟,2013 .中国冬季降水和极端降水对变暖的响应[J].科学通报,58 (8):674-679. Sun J Q,Ao J,2013.Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(12):1395-1401.(in Chinese).
王会军,范可,郎咸梅,等, 2012.我国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang H J,Fan K,Lang X M,et al.,2012.Advances in climate prediction theory and technique of China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al., 2012.Extreme climate in China:facts, simulation and projection[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,21(3):279-304.
汪君,王会军,洪阳, 2016.中国洪涝、滑坡灾害监测和动力数值预报系统研究[M].北京:气象出版社. Wang J,Wang H J,Hong Y,2016.A realtime monitoring and dynamical forecasting system for floods and landslides in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.(in Chinese).
Yu E T,Sun J Q,Chen H P, et al., 2015.Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China:climatology and extremes[J].Clim Dyn,45(7/8):2013-2031.
Zhai P M,Zhang X B,Wan H, et al.,2005.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].J Climate,18(7)1096-1108.
翟盘茂,王萃萃,李威, 2007.极端降水事件变化的观测研究.气候变化研究进展,3(3):144-148. Zhai P M,Wang C C,Li W,2007.A review on study of change in precipitation extremes[J].Adv Clim Change Res,3(3):144-148.(in Chinese).
赵煜飞,朱江,2015 .近50年中国降水格点日值数据集精度及评估[J].高原气象,34 (1):50-58. Zhao Y F,Zhu J,2015.Assessing quality of grid daily precipitation datasets in China in recent 50 years[J].Plateau Meteor,34(1):50-58.(in Chinese).
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |