环境规制是否影响了碳排放权交易价格?——以天津市碳排放交易所为例
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摘要
全国统一的碳排放交易平台于2017年12月19日正式建立,统一的碳交易市场是以市场化方式解决企业减排成本补偿问题的关键,是利用市场机制控制和减少温室气体排放、推动绿色低碳发展的一项重大创新实践。然而我国的碳市场发展还处于起步阶段,市场发展还存在产品定价尚在探索、市场价格发现功能缺失、控排企业缺乏参与积极性等制约因素。本文运用向量自回归(VAR)的向量误差修正(VEC)模型分析环渤海动力煤价格指数、中证工业指数、沪深300指数、欧洲碳指数、空气质量指数以及大气污染防治设备产量对天津市碳排放权交易价格的影响。结果表明空气质量指数、欧洲碳指数、中证工业指数和大气污染防治设备产量对碳排放权交易价格有正向影响,环渤海动力煤价格指数和沪深300指数对碳排放权交易价格有负向影响,且沪深300指数对碳价的影响程度最大,其次是中证工业指数,大气污染防治设备产量的影响最小,最后针对实证结果提出相应的建议。
The national unified carbon emission trading platform was formally established on December 19 th, 2017. The market is the key to solving the problem of cost reduction and reimbursement of enterprises. It's an important innovative practice to control and reduce greenhouse gas emission and promote green and low carbon development by means of market mechanism. However, the development of China's carbon market is still at early stage. There are still some restrictive factors in the development of market such as the exploration of product price, the lack of market price discovery function and the enterprises' lack of enthusiasm for participation. In this article, Vector Error Correction(VEC) Model based on Vector Autoregression(VAR) is used to analyze the influence of BSPI(Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index),CSI(China Securities Industry) Index, CSI 300 Index, European carbon index, AQI(Air Quality Index) and the production of air pollution control equipment on the price of carbon emission in Tianjin. The result shows that AQI, European carbon index, CSI Index and the production of air pollution control equipment have a positive effect while BSPI and CSI300 Index have a negative effect. And CSI 300 Index has the greatest effect, followed by CSI Index, and the production of air pollution control equipment has the least effect. Finally, it puts forward the corresponding suggestions based on the empirical results.
The national unified carbon emission trading platform was formally established on December 19 th, 2017. The market is the key to solving the problem of cost reduction and reimbursement of enterprises. It's an important innovative practice to control and reduce greenhouse gas emission and promote green and low carbon development by means of market mechanism. However, the development of China's carbon market is still at early stage. There are still some restrictive factors in the development of market such as the exploration of product price, the lack of market price discovery function and the enterprises' lack of enthusiasm for participation. In this article, Vector Error Correction(VEC) Model based on Vector Autoregression(VAR) is used to analyze the influence of BSPI(Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index),CSI(China Securities Industry) Index, CSI 300 Index, European carbon index, AQI(Air Quality Index) and the production of air pollution control equipment on the price of carbon emission in Tianjin. The result shows that AQI, European carbon index, CSI Index and the production of air pollution control equipment have a positive effect while BSPI and CSI300 Index have a negative effect. And CSI 300 Index has the greatest effect, followed by CSI Index, and the production of air pollution control equipment has the least effect. Finally, it puts forward the corresponding suggestions based on the empirical results.
引文
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[18]石平华,易敏利.环境规制对企业出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于2004—2015年中国企业出口的省际面板数据[J].西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):93-100.
[19]GURTOOA,ANTONYSJ. Environmental regulations,indirect and unintended consequences on economy and business[J].Management of Environmental Quality,2007,18(6):626-642.
[20] INNES R,CARRION-FLORES C E. Environmental innovation and environmental policy:an empirical test of bi-directional effects[M]. General Information,2005.
[21]丁黎黎,赵红梅,王晓玲.环境政策混合治理框架下的企业减排行为[J].系统工程,2017(2):75-80.
[22]KHEDER S B,ZUGRAVUSOILITA N. The pollution haven hypothesis:a geographic economy model in a comparative study[M].Corso Magenta:Social Science Electronic Publishing,2008.
[23]刘鸿雁,张一枫.环境规制对产业结构的作用机理研究[J].科技和产业,2018(1):46-49.
[24]张中元,赵国庆. FDI、环境规制与技术进步——基于中国省级数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(4):19-32.
[25]甘家武,龚旻,冯坤媛.中国环境规制对经济发展方式的影响研究——基于“双重红利”视角[J].生态经济,2017(1):14-20.
[26]郭文军.中国区域碳排放权价格影响因素的研究——基于自适应Lasso方法[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(s1):305-310.
[2]周天芸,许锐翔.中国碳排放权交易价格的形成及其波动特征——基于深圳碳排放权交易所的数据[J].金融发展研究,2016(1):16-25.
[3]马慧敏,赵静秋.碳排放权交易价格影响因素实证分析——基于北京市碳排放交易所数据[J].财会月刊,2016(29):22-26.
[4] BUNN D W,FEZZI C. Interaction of European carbon trading and energy prices[M]. Corso Magenta:Social Science Electronic Publishing,2007.
[5]邹亚生,魏薇.碳排放核证减排量(CER)现货价格影响因素研究[J].金融研究,2013(10):142-153.
[6]陈欣,刘明,刘延.碳交易价格的驱动因素与结构性断点——基于中国七个碳交易试点的实证研究[J].经济问题,2016(11):29-35.
[7]王娜.基于大数据的碳价预测[J].统计研究,2016(11):56-62.
[8] ZHU B Z,WEI Y M. Carbon price forecasting with a novel hybrid ARIMA and least squares support vector machines methodology[J]. Omega,2013,41(3):517-524.
[9] LI W,LU C. The research on setting a unified interval of carbon price benchmark in the national carbon trading market of China[J]. Applied Energy,2015,155(1):728-739.
[10] MANSANET-BATALLER M,PARDO A,VALOR E. CO2prices,energy and weather[J].The Energy Journal,2009,28(3):73-92.
[11] ALBEROLA E,CHEVALLIER J,CHEZE B. Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007[J]. Energy Policy,2008,36(2):787-797.
[12]陈晓红,王陟昀.碳排放权交易价格影响因素实证研究——以欧盟排放交易体系(EUETS)为例[J].系统工程,2012(2):53-60.
[13] HINTERMANN B. Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,2010,59(1):43-56.
[14] OBERNDORFER U. EU emission allowances and the stock market:evidence from the electricity industry[J]. Ecological Economics,2009,68(4):1116-1126.
[15]CHEVALLIER J. Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors:a view from the EU ETS[J]. Energy Economics,2009,31(4):614-625.
[16] WATER I,UGELOW J L. Environmental policies in developing countries[J]. Ambio,1979,8(2/3):102-109.
[17]PORTER M E. America’s green strategy[J]. Scientific American,1991,264(4):193-246.
[18]石平华,易敏利.环境规制对企业出口贸易影响的实证研究——基于2004—2015年中国企业出口的省际面板数据[J].西华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(3):93-100.
[19]GURTOOA,ANTONYSJ. Environmental regulations,indirect and unintended consequences on economy and business[J].Management of Environmental Quality,2007,18(6):626-642.
[20] INNES R,CARRION-FLORES C E. Environmental innovation and environmental policy:an empirical test of bi-directional effects[M]. General Information,2005.
[21]丁黎黎,赵红梅,王晓玲.环境政策混合治理框架下的企业减排行为[J].系统工程,2017(2):75-80.
[22]KHEDER S B,ZUGRAVUSOILITA N. The pollution haven hypothesis:a geographic economy model in a comparative study[M].Corso Magenta:Social Science Electronic Publishing,2008.
[23]刘鸿雁,张一枫.环境规制对产业结构的作用机理研究[J].科技和产业,2018(1):46-49.
[24]张中元,赵国庆. FDI、环境规制与技术进步——基于中国省级数据的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(4):19-32.
[25]甘家武,龚旻,冯坤媛.中国环境规制对经济发展方式的影响研究——基于“双重红利”视角[J].生态经济,2017(1):14-20.
[26]郭文军.中国区域碳排放权价格影响因素的研究——基于自适应Lasso方法[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(s1):305-310.