碳普惠制下居民公交车出行减碳量核算方法研究——以广州市为例
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摘要
作为现行碳排放权交易机制的延伸和有效补充,碳普惠制着眼于社会公众低碳行为减碳量的核算和交易。将公交车出行作为低碳行为纳入碳普惠制,是促进全民参与低碳社会建设的重要探索。文章借鉴CCER方法学并综合考虑交通数据的可获得性,提出了替代法和均值法两种居民公交车出行减碳量的核算方法,并以广州市为例,计算了2015年广州居民公交车出行的减碳量。结果显示,替代法核算广州居民公交车出行的减碳量为0.287 8 kg CO_2/人次,均值法减碳量为0.351 4 kg CO_2/人次,如果按2015年广州市公交车系统的客运量计算,替代法和均值法核算全市公交车系统的年减碳量分别约为750 000 t CO_2和920 000 t CO_2。其中,替代法所需的替代出行模式受被调查对象的主观影响较大,而均值法以城市现有的机动化出行为基准线排放,受主观因素干扰较小,更适合核算居民公交车出行的碳减排量。
As the effective supplement to the current carbon emission trading mechanism, Carbon Generalized System of Preferences(carbon GSP) focuses on the accounting and trading of carbon reductions by the public. It is an important exploration for taking bus travel behavior into carbon GSP to build a low carbon society. This paper proposes two different carbon emission reduction calculation methods of bus travel, based on CCER methodology "Bus rapid transit projects",combine with the availability of traffic data and the connotation of Carbon GSP. Taking Guangzhou as an example, we calculate carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus travel in 2015 by using these two methods. The results show that under substitution method, the carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus travel is about 0.287 8 kg CO_2/P, but under averaging method this value is about 0.351 4 kg CO_2/P. The annual carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus system are about 750 thousand tons CO_2 under substitution method and 920 thousand tons CO_2 under averaging method respectively. In these two methods, although the substitution method has theoretical basis, the setting of alternative travel patterns will greatly rely on the subjectivity of survey objects. In contrast, the averaging method relies on the current urban motorized travel patterns, and less human disturbance. By comparing these two calculation methods, we believe that the averaging method is more suitable for calculating bus travel carbon emission reductions of carbon GSP.
As the effective supplement to the current carbon emission trading mechanism, Carbon Generalized System of Preferences(carbon GSP) focuses on the accounting and trading of carbon reductions by the public. It is an important exploration for taking bus travel behavior into carbon GSP to build a low carbon society. This paper proposes two different carbon emission reduction calculation methods of bus travel, based on CCER methodology "Bus rapid transit projects",combine with the availability of traffic data and the connotation of Carbon GSP. Taking Guangzhou as an example, we calculate carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus travel in 2015 by using these two methods. The results show that under substitution method, the carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus travel is about 0.287 8 kg CO_2/P, but under averaging method this value is about 0.351 4 kg CO_2/P. The annual carbon emission reductions of Guangzhou bus system are about 750 thousand tons CO_2 under substitution method and 920 thousand tons CO_2 under averaging method respectively. In these two methods, although the substitution method has theoretical basis, the setting of alternative travel patterns will greatly rely on the subjectivity of survey objects. In contrast, the averaging method relies on the current urban motorized travel patterns, and less human disturbance. By comparing these two calculation methods, we believe that the averaging method is more suitable for calculating bus travel carbon emission reductions of carbon GSP.
引文
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[2]IPCC. Climate change 2014:Synthesis report, contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Switzerland:IPCC, 2014.
[3]马静,柴彦威,刘志林.基于居民出行行为的北京市交通碳排放影响机理[J].地理学报,2011(8):1023-1032.
[4]张秀媛,杨新苗,闫琰.城市交通能耗和碳排放统计测算方法研究[J].中国软科学,2014(6):142-150.
[5]靳国良.碳交易机制的碳普惠制创新[J].全球化,2014(11):45-59.
[6]广东省发改委.广东省碳普惠制试点工作实施方案[EB/OL].(2015-07-17). http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939756/201507/t20150727_594913.html.
[7]广东省发改委.广东省碳普惠制试点建设指南[EB/OL].(2015-07-17). http://zwgk.gd.gov.cn/006939756/201507/t20150727_594913.html.
[8]交通运输部. 2017年交通运输行业发展统计公报[EB/OL].(2018-03-30). http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/zfxxgk/bnssj/zhghs/201803/t20180329_3005087.html.
[9]城市交通研究中心. 2017年度中国主要城市公共交通大数据分析报告[EB/OL].(2018-05-15). http://www.bus-info.cn/index.php?c=article&id=3038.
[10]王雷.基于GIS的城市公交尾气排放模拟分析系统研究与实现[D].南京:东南大学,2016.
[11]林晓丹,吕彬,田良,等.基于LCA的北京市公交车节能及温室气体减排潜力分析[J].环境科学学报,2014(2):576-584.
[12]王白雪,郭琨.北京市公共交通碳排放效率研究——基于超效率SBM模型和ML指数[J].系统科学与数学,2018(4):456-467.
[13]王宁,龚在研,马钧.基于经济与排放效益的混合动力和纯电动公交车发展前景分析[J].中国软科学,2011(12):57-65.
[14]张清,陶小马,杨鹏.特大型城市客运交通碳排放与减排对策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012(1):41-48.
[15]郭洪旭,黄莹,赵黛青,等.中国典型城市空间形态对居民出行能耗的影响[J].城市发展研究,2016(3):95-100.
[16]张捷,刘一博.定制公交对减少碳排放的贡献[J].城市公共交通,2016(2):25-26.
[17]张婷.考虑碳排放权交易的纯电动公交车经济调动策略研究[D].淄博:山东理工大学,2015.
[18]黄莹,郭洪旭,谢鹏程,等.碳普惠制下市民乘坐地铁出行减碳量核算方法研究——以广州为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2017(3):284-291.
[19]广东省发改委.广东省企业(单位)二氧化碳排放信息报告指南[EB/OL].(2018-02-23). http://www.gddrc.gov.cn/zwgk/ywtz/201802/t20180223_464246.shtml.
[20]国家发展改革委办公厅.国家发改委办公厅关于开展2014年度单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放降低目标责任考核评估的通知[EB/OL].(2015-04-20). http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/gzdt/201504/t20150427_689392.html.