甘肃省农业可持续发展评价及耦合协调性分析
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摘要
[目的]农业是国民经济和社会发展之根本,农业可持续发展及协调水平研究为甘肃省农业可持续发展提供数据依据。[方法]以"人口—资源—经济—社会—环境"框架模型构建甘肃省农业可持续发展评价指标体系,采用熵值法和耦合协调模型,揭示2005—2015年甘肃省农业可持续发展水平及农业系统的耦合协调性。[结果]近10年间,甘肃省农业可持续发展总体水平持续提升,其中农业资源、经济、社会系统可持续发展水平持续提升,但是2005—2010年经历了一个滞后型的发展过程;农业人口、环境系统可持续发展水平持续下降,2011—2015年处于滞后型发展阶段。甘肃省农业人口、资源、经济、社会、环境系统耦合度和协调度波动上升,但整体水平仍处于低水平耦合、轻度失调阶段;两两子系统间的耦合性及协调性呈现出阶段性和"剪刀差"的分异特征。[结论]甘肃省农业可持续发展水平逐年持续提升,但农业系统总体耦合协调性仍处于欠佳局面,农业人口和环境困境逐渐成为甘肃省农业可持续发展进程中的瓶颈和制约因素。
Agriculture is the foundation of national economy and social development. The research on the sustainable development and coordination of agriculture provides the data basis for the sustainable development of agriculture in Gansu province. By using the entropy method and coupled-coordination model,this research constructed a comprehensive assessment of the indicators for agricultural population,resources,economy,society and environment system of Gansu province,and analyzed the level of agricultural sustainable development and the coupling coordination of agricultural systems during 2005 to 2015. The results showed that in the past 10 years,the overall level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province had continuously raised; the sustainable development level of agricultural resources,economy,and social systems was continuously promoted,however,they had suffered a " lagging development" period from 2005 to 2010; the sustainable development level of agricultural population and environmental systems continuously declined,and they had also suffered a " lagging development" period from 2011 to 2015. The degree of coupling and coordination of agricultural population,resources,economy,society,and the environment in Gansu province increased in fluctuation,but the overall level was still at a low coupling and a slight misadjustment; the coupling and coordination between each two subsystems showed a periodic characteristic and a distinctive feature of " scissors difference". It concludes that the general level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province continuously raises,but the agricultural system coupling coordination is still in poor condition,agricultural population and environmental dilemma gradually become bottleneck and constraint factors of the process of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province.
Agriculture is the foundation of national economy and social development. The research on the sustainable development and coordination of agriculture provides the data basis for the sustainable development of agriculture in Gansu province. By using the entropy method and coupled-coordination model,this research constructed a comprehensive assessment of the indicators for agricultural population,resources,economy,society and environment system of Gansu province,and analyzed the level of agricultural sustainable development and the coupling coordination of agricultural systems during 2005 to 2015. The results showed that in the past 10 years,the overall level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province had continuously raised; the sustainable development level of agricultural resources,economy,and social systems was continuously promoted,however,they had suffered a " lagging development" period from 2005 to 2010; the sustainable development level of agricultural population and environmental systems continuously declined,and they had also suffered a " lagging development" period from 2011 to 2015. The degree of coupling and coordination of agricultural population,resources,economy,society,and the environment in Gansu province increased in fluctuation,but the overall level was still at a low coupling and a slight misadjustment; the coupling and coordination between each two subsystems showed a periodic characteristic and a distinctive feature of " scissors difference". It concludes that the general level of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province continuously raises,but the agricultural system coupling coordination is still in poor condition,agricultural population and environmental dilemma gradually become bottleneck and constraint factors of the process of sustainable agricultural development in Gansu province.
引文
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[21]戴蓉,薛达元,郭泺,等.黔东南地区农业可持续发展评价及预测分析.中国农学通报,2012,28(32):138-146.
[22]段妍磊.河北省农业可持续发展指标体系分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(6):169-183.
[23]龙冬平,李同昇.中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型.地理学报,2014,69(2):213-226.
[24] Liu Y B,Yao C S,Wang G X,Bao S M. An integrated sustainable development approach to modeling the eco-environmental effects from urbanization. Ecological Indicators,2011,11(6):1599-1608.
[25]王明,周忠学,冯海建.西安都市圈都市农业多功能协调性研.干旱区地理,2015,38(4):858-866.
[26]徐敏,罗剑朝,崔彩贤.新疆绿洲农业可持续发展状况及协调性分析.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(2):20-23.
[27]丁文广,冶伟峰,米璇,等.甘肃省不同地理区域灾害与贫困耦合关系量化研究.经济地理,2013,33(3):28-35.
[28]陈锋正.河南省农业生态环境与农业经济耦合系统协同发展研究.新疆农业大学,2016.
[29]李钢.城郊村镇景观节点特征主成分分析及综合评价实证研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(10):204-209.
[30]李小朋,王景.城郊农村可持续发展指标体系构建及评价研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(1):129-134.
[31]吴大进,曹力,陈立华.协同学原理和应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990. 9-17.
[32]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析.地理学报,2005,60(2):237-247.
[33]孙平军,修春亮.脆弱性视角的矿业城市人地耦合系统的耦合度评价———以阜新市为例.地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):75-79.
[2]卢代富,邵海.产业化背景下我国农业可持续发展的困境与法律对策.法律科学(西北政法大学学报),2013,31(3):103-102.
[3]中国21世纪议程———中国21世纪人口、环境与发展白皮书.北京:中国环境科学出版社,1994.
[4]陈志.我国农业可持续发展与农业机械化.农业机械学报,2001,32(1):1-4.
[5]覃志豪,唐华俊,李文娟,等.气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向.中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(5):1-7.
[6]钱津.农业供给侧结构性改革战略要点探究.经济纵横,2017,10(5):14-19.
[7]高鹏,刘燕妮.我国农业可持续发展水平的聚类评价———基于2000—2009年省域面板数据的实证分析.经济学家,2012,24(3):59-65.
[8] UNESC. Indicators of Sustainable Development. commission on Sustainable Development. 3rd Session. New York:United Nations Economic and Social Council,1995.
[9]曹斌,林剑艺.可持续发展评价指标体系研究综述.环境科学与技术,2010,33(3):99-122.
[10] Zhou S D,Mueller F,Burkhard B,Cao X J,Hou Y. Assessing Agricultural Sustainable Development Based on the DPSIR Approach:Case Study in Jiangsu,China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture,2013,12(7):1292-1299.
[11]褚保金,游小建,等.我国农业可持续发展评价指标体系新探.科技与经济,1998,12(11):12-16.
[12]陈佑启,陶陶.论可持续农业的评价指标.农业现代化研究,2000,21(5):271-275.
[13]袁久和,祁春节.基于熵值法的湖南省农业可持续发展能力动态评价.长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(2):152-157.
[14]周利军,张淑花.基于熵值法的农业可持续发展评价———以绥化市为例.资源开发与市场,2008,24(11):982-984.
[15]邓楚雄,谢炳庚,等.上海都市农业可持续发展的定量综合评价.自然资源学报,2010,25(9):1577-1588.
[16]欧阳涛,肖海燕,等.湖南省农业可持续发展实证分析.中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(1):35-43.
[17] ShuoCAO,Shunqiang SUN. Estimation on the development of Circulation Agriculture in Guizhou province Based on Entropy Method,Asian Agricultural Research,2015,7(5):33-37.
[18]安静,王梁.山东省农业可持续发展水平动态评价.山东农业科学,2016,48(2):161-165.
[19]赵莉,王生林.甘肃省定西市农业可持续发展能力评价与分析.沈阳农业大学学报(社会科学版),2010,12(2):149-152.
[20] Mirjana Golusin,Olja MunitlakIvanovic,Natasa Teodorovic. The review of the achieved degree of sustainable development in South Eastern Europe—The use of linear regression method. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2011,15(1):766-772.
[21]戴蓉,薛达元,郭泺,等.黔东南地区农业可持续发展评价及预测分析.中国农学通报,2012,28(32):138-146.
[22]段妍磊.河北省农业可持续发展指标体系分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(6):169-183.
[23]龙冬平,李同昇.中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型.地理学报,2014,69(2):213-226.
[24] Liu Y B,Yao C S,Wang G X,Bao S M. An integrated sustainable development approach to modeling the eco-environmental effects from urbanization. Ecological Indicators,2011,11(6):1599-1608.
[25]王明,周忠学,冯海建.西安都市圈都市农业多功能协调性研.干旱区地理,2015,38(4):858-866.
[26]徐敏,罗剑朝,崔彩贤.新疆绿洲农业可持续发展状况及协调性分析.干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(2):20-23.
[27]丁文广,冶伟峰,米璇,等.甘肃省不同地理区域灾害与贫困耦合关系量化研究.经济地理,2013,33(3):28-35.
[28]陈锋正.河南省农业生态环境与农业经济耦合系统协同发展研究.新疆农业大学,2016.
[29]李钢.城郊村镇景观节点特征主成分分析及综合评价实证研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(10):204-209.
[30]李小朋,王景.城郊农村可持续发展指标体系构建及评价研究.中国农业资源与区划,2017,38(1):129-134.
[31]吴大进,曹力,陈立华.协同学原理和应用.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1990. 9-17.
[32]刘耀彬,李仁东,宋学锋.中国区域城市化与生态环境耦合的关联分析.地理学报,2005,60(2):237-247.
[33]孙平军,修春亮.脆弱性视角的矿业城市人地耦合系统的耦合度评价———以阜新市为例.地域研究与开发,2010,29(6):75-79.
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