生产率进步影响农村人力资本积累吗?——基于微观数据的研究
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摘要
本文采用中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP),在动态一般均衡框架下,从理论和实证上研究了农业生产率提高对农村人力资本积累的影响。研究表明,随着农业生产率提高,农村家庭倾向于进行教育投资,进而提升了家庭人力资本积累;过去各期农业生产率对家庭人力资本积累的提高有显著的促进作用;越早期的农业生产率变动,对家庭人力资本积累的影响越大;农业生产率的收入增长效应是提高家庭人力资本积累水平的重要机制;农业生产率提高对于从事农业生产家庭的人力资本积累提高具有显著的推动作用,但对于从事非农生产家庭来说,农业生产率的人力资本积累效应则不很显著。上述结论意味着,国家惠农政策向农业生产率提高和教育投资领域倾斜,对于促进农村人力资本积累具有重要意义。
The level of farmers' human capital guarantees and reflects the quality of rural development, which is a major economic problem of sustainable rural development in China. To solve the problem of the lack of farmers' human capital accumulation, the central "No. 1 Document" for 2004—2018 has put forward a specific arrangement for accelerating the accumulation of farmers' human capital from the vocational skills training of rural labor to rural practical personnel training, agricultural production technology and job skills training, and new vocational farmers training. At the central government level, the specific deployment of farmers' human capital accumulation has varied over time, which shows that it is difficult to solve the problem of a shortage of human capital accumulation through a single policy tool. As such, what dynamic mechanism is used to promote the accumulation of farmers' human capital? In the transformation of land urbanization to population urbanization, what changes occur in the dynamic mechanism?Although the literature has considered the problem of farmers' human capital accumulation in many ways, it has rarely examined the impact of agricultural productivity on rural household human capital accumulation based on a unified framework. This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model of agricultural productivity and theoretically analyzes the influence of agricultural productivity on the accumulation of rural household human capital. Based on theoretical research, we empirically study the impact of agricultural productivity on farmers' human capital accumulation using data from the China Household Income Survey and analyze its mechanism in depth.Empirical results show that the increase in agricultural productivity is an important way to promote the accumulation of farmers' human capital after controlling for the agricultural land endowment and family characteristics variables, thus verifying the theoretical proposition of this paper. We arrive at several main findings. As agricultural productivity increases, rural households tend to invest in education, thereby increasing the level of household human capital accumulation. The increase in agricultural productivity over time has had a significant effect on the increase in household laborers' years of education. The earlier agricultural productivity changes, the greater the impact on family members' years of education. The income growth effect of agricultural productivity and the investment effect of education are important mechanisms for improving the level of human capital accumulation in the family. The improvement of agricultural productivity increases the level of human capital accumulation in the households engaged in agriculture. Although it is significantly promoted, for households with non-agricultural production, the human capital accumulation effect of agricultural productivity is not significant. Finally, when the family farmland resource endowment increases, rural families pay more attention to education, which leads to an increase in family human capital investment.This paper makes the following contributions. First, it builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of urban and rural areas that accounts for the special center-periphery spatial structure between rural homestead and agricultural production and reveals the special relationship between rural and urban. It discusses the dynamic impact of agricultural productivity on farmers' human capital accumulation based on the dynamic general equilibrium framework. Theoretical analysis shows that the increase in agricultural productivity promotes the accumulation of human capital in rural households and that the income growth mechanism of agricultural productivity plays an important role. Second, using the China Household Income Survey data, this paper empirically examines the impact of agricultural productivity on rural human capital accumulation. It finds that with the increase in agricultural productivity, rural households are more inclined to invest in education. This increases the level of family human capital accumulation, and the mediating effect of income and education investment plays an important role.
The level of farmers' human capital guarantees and reflects the quality of rural development, which is a major economic problem of sustainable rural development in China. To solve the problem of the lack of farmers' human capital accumulation, the central "No. 1 Document" for 2004—2018 has put forward a specific arrangement for accelerating the accumulation of farmers' human capital from the vocational skills training of rural labor to rural practical personnel training, agricultural production technology and job skills training, and new vocational farmers training. At the central government level, the specific deployment of farmers' human capital accumulation has varied over time, which shows that it is difficult to solve the problem of a shortage of human capital accumulation through a single policy tool. As such, what dynamic mechanism is used to promote the accumulation of farmers' human capital? In the transformation of land urbanization to population urbanization, what changes occur in the dynamic mechanism?Although the literature has considered the problem of farmers' human capital accumulation in many ways, it has rarely examined the impact of agricultural productivity on rural household human capital accumulation based on a unified framework. This paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model of agricultural productivity and theoretically analyzes the influence of agricultural productivity on the accumulation of rural household human capital. Based on theoretical research, we empirically study the impact of agricultural productivity on farmers' human capital accumulation using data from the China Household Income Survey and analyze its mechanism in depth.Empirical results show that the increase in agricultural productivity is an important way to promote the accumulation of farmers' human capital after controlling for the agricultural land endowment and family characteristics variables, thus verifying the theoretical proposition of this paper. We arrive at several main findings. As agricultural productivity increases, rural households tend to invest in education, thereby increasing the level of household human capital accumulation. The increase in agricultural productivity over time has had a significant effect on the increase in household laborers' years of education. The earlier agricultural productivity changes, the greater the impact on family members' years of education. The income growth effect of agricultural productivity and the investment effect of education are important mechanisms for improving the level of human capital accumulation in the family. The improvement of agricultural productivity increases the level of human capital accumulation in the households engaged in agriculture. Although it is significantly promoted, for households with non-agricultural production, the human capital accumulation effect of agricultural productivity is not significant. Finally, when the family farmland resource endowment increases, rural families pay more attention to education, which leads to an increase in family human capital investment.This paper makes the following contributions. First, it builds a dynamic general equilibrium model of urban and rural areas that accounts for the special center-periphery spatial structure between rural homestead and agricultural production and reveals the special relationship between rural and urban. It discusses the dynamic impact of agricultural productivity on farmers' human capital accumulation based on the dynamic general equilibrium framework. Theoretical analysis shows that the increase in agricultural productivity promotes the accumulation of human capital in rural households and that the income growth mechanism of agricultural productivity plays an important role. Second, using the China Household Income Survey data, this paper empirically examines the impact of agricultural productivity on rural human capital accumulation. It finds that with the increase in agricultural productivity, rural households are more inclined to invest in education. This increases the level of family human capital accumulation, and the mediating effect of income and education investment plays an important role.
引文
才国伟、刘剑雄,2014:《收入风险、融资约束与人力资本积累——公共教育投资的作用》,《经济研究》第7期。
钞小静、沈坤荣,2014:《城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长》,《经济研究》第6期。
陈沁、袁志刚,2013:《土地替代教育——城市化进程中农业家庭的教育选择》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
陈维涛、王永进、李坤望,2014:《地区出口企业生产率、二元劳动力市场与中国的人力资本积累》,《经济研究》第1期。
程名望、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩、史清华,2014:《农村减贫:应该更关注教育还是健康?——基于收入增长和差距缩小双重视角的实证》,《经济研究》第11期。
程名望、盖庆恩、Jin Yanhong、史清华,2016:《人力资本积累与农户收入增长》,《经济研究》第1期。
高伟、张苏、王婕,2013:《土地流转、收入预期与农村高等教育参与意愿》,《管理世界》第3期。
黄季焜、胡瑞法、孙振玉,2000:《让科学技术进入农村的千家万户——建立新的农业技术推广创新体系》,《农业经济问题》第4期。
李菁、林毅夫、姚洋,2002:《信贷约束、土地和不发达地区农户子女教育投资》,《中国人口科学》第6期。
王海港、黄少安、李琴,2009:《职业技能培训对农村居民非农收入的影响》,《经济研究》第9期。
章元、万广华、刘修岩,2009:《参与市场与农村贫困:一个微观分析的视角》,《世界经济》第9期。
郑万军、王文彬,2015:《基于人力资本视角的农村人口空心化治理》,《农村经济》第12期。
Black, D., and V. Henderson, 1999, “A Theory of Urban Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 107, 252—284.
Foster, A. D., and M. R. Rosenzweig, 1995, “Learning by Doing and Learning form Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture”, Journal of Political Economy,103, 1176—1209.
Jin, Z., J. Huang, R. Hu, and S. Rozelle, 2002, “The Creation and Spread of Technology and Total Factor Productivity in China’s Agriculture”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 916—930.
Li, Z., and H. Zhang, 2013, “Productivity Growth in China’s Agriculture During 1985—2010”, Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(10), 1896—1904.
Yamauchi, F., 2007, “Social Learning, Neighborhood Effects, and Investment in Human Capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India”, Journal of Development Economics, 83(1), 37—62.
(1)其经济学含义为,现实生活中农民可以通过提高种肥质量在一定程度提高离宅基地距离较远的土地的产出,缩小其与离宅基地距离较近的优质土地的产出差距,所以β1存在一定取值范围,并不会无限大。同时,当β1=0时,相当于每处的人口密度均相等,土地产出便没有差异。
(2)这里的转移支付主要指保障农业生产的各类公共品供给支出。
(3)一般情况下,农村的人口规模外部性较低,明显低于城市。
(4)在农村部门中,对于个人而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ1,成本的弹性为1/(2-β1)。当δ1>1/(2-β1)时,随着人口的增加,收入增加的比例高于成本,农村的人口会不断膨胀,直到世界上只剩下一个城市,这显然与现实矛盾,所以δ1<1/(2-β1),即(2-β1)δ1<1。因此可得到η1=1-(2-β1)δ1>0;而又因为0≤β1<2,那么可得(2-β1)δ1>0,所以可以求得η1=1-(2-β1)δ1<1。综上可得η1满足0<η1<1。
(5)由于在城市部门当中,其总通勤成本和总地租的计算公式和原理与农村部门相似,限于文章篇幅,在此不再赘述。
(6)在城市部门中,对于个人而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ2/α,成本的弹性为1/(2-β2)。当δ2/α>1/(2-β2)时,随着人口的增加,收入增加的比例高于成本,城市的人口会不断膨胀,直到世界上只剩下一个城市,这显然与现实矛盾,所以δ2/α<1/(2-β2),即(2-β2)δ2<α。因此可得到η2=α-(2-β2)δ2>0;而又因为0≤β2<2(这里β2的取值范围的界定原理与β1相类似,限于篇幅,不再赘述),那么可得(2-β2)δ2>0,所以可以求得η2=α-(2-β2)δ2<α。又由α<1,综上可得η2满足0<η2<α<1。
(7)h2j变动会影响h2变动,h2变动又影响P变动。若所有代表人都考虑到这种变动,通过合作博弈则可得?I2i/?h2i=ε2I2i/h2i。
(8)这里ξ1、ξ2的取值范围主要由下文分析得出。由(17)式、(18)式均大于零,可得ξ1、ξ2同时满足0<ξ1<1、0<ξ2<1或者ξ1>1、ξ2>1。假定ξ1、ξ2满足ξ1>1、ξ2>1,那么在中间投入品市场的分析中,求得产品均衡价格P为负值,这显然与事实不符。因此可得ξ1、ξ2取值范围为0<ξ1<1以及0<ξ2<1。
(9)限于篇幅,具体推导过程不再列出,如有需要可向作者索取。
(10)如前文所述,在农村部门中,对于农村居民个体而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ1,且满足δ1<1/(2-β1)。而又因为0≤β1<2,且f(β1)=1/(2-β1)为区间0≤β1<2上的单调增函数,因此当δ1<1/(2-β1)成立时,必然使得δ10。
(11)感谢审稿人在人力资本积累界定方面提出的建设性意见。由于人力资本水平反映的是一定时间点的人力资本程度,而人力资本积累则反映的是一定时间点的人力资本状况,同时人力资本积累又反映了动态累积的结果。为避免混淆人力资本水平与人力资本积累,我们首先用教育投资来代表人力资本积累状况,而非程度,而在人力资本的动态累积结果方面,则用受教育年限代表,在实证分析中,用过去农业生产率变量对其进行回归,以使其反映人力资本动态累积结果。
(12)本文凡涉及货币项目均进行价格指数平减,并去掉个别极端值。
(13)由于部分年份的某些变量缺失,回归中实际用到的数据可能不包括所有年份。
(14)由于2007—2008年调查缺少估计农业生产率的投入和产出信息,同时也缺少教育投资数据,因此在讨论家庭农业生产率的教育投资影响效应时,未使用2007—2008年的数据,而在利用县域农业生产率作为解释变量,研究其对家庭劳均受教育年限的影响时,采用了这两个年份的样本。
钞小静、沈坤荣,2014:《城乡收入差距、劳动力质量与中国经济增长》,《经济研究》第6期。
陈沁、袁志刚,2013:《土地替代教育——城市化进程中农业家庭的教育选择》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
陈维涛、王永进、李坤望,2014:《地区出口企业生产率、二元劳动力市场与中国的人力资本积累》,《经济研究》第1期。
程名望、Jin Yanhong、盖庆恩、史清华,2014:《农村减贫:应该更关注教育还是健康?——基于收入增长和差距缩小双重视角的实证》,《经济研究》第11期。
程名望、盖庆恩、Jin Yanhong、史清华,2016:《人力资本积累与农户收入增长》,《经济研究》第1期。
高伟、张苏、王婕,2013:《土地流转、收入预期与农村高等教育参与意愿》,《管理世界》第3期。
黄季焜、胡瑞法、孙振玉,2000:《让科学技术进入农村的千家万户——建立新的农业技术推广创新体系》,《农业经济问题》第4期。
李菁、林毅夫、姚洋,2002:《信贷约束、土地和不发达地区农户子女教育投资》,《中国人口科学》第6期。
王海港、黄少安、李琴,2009:《职业技能培训对农村居民非农收入的影响》,《经济研究》第9期。
章元、万广华、刘修岩,2009:《参与市场与农村贫困:一个微观分析的视角》,《世界经济》第9期。
郑万军、王文彬,2015:《基于人力资本视角的农村人口空心化治理》,《农村经济》第12期。
Black, D., and V. Henderson, 1999, “A Theory of Urban Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 107, 252—284.
Foster, A. D., and M. R. Rosenzweig, 1995, “Learning by Doing and Learning form Others: Human Capital and Technical Change in Agriculture”, Journal of Political Economy,103, 1176—1209.
Jin, Z., J. Huang, R. Hu, and S. Rozelle, 2002, “The Creation and Spread of Technology and Total Factor Productivity in China’s Agriculture”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 916—930.
Li, Z., and H. Zhang, 2013, “Productivity Growth in China’s Agriculture During 1985—2010”, Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(10), 1896—1904.
Yamauchi, F., 2007, “Social Learning, Neighborhood Effects, and Investment in Human Capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India”, Journal of Development Economics, 83(1), 37—62.
(1)其经济学含义为,现实生活中农民可以通过提高种肥质量在一定程度提高离宅基地距离较远的土地的产出,缩小其与离宅基地距离较近的优质土地的产出差距,所以β1存在一定取值范围,并不会无限大。同时,当β1=0时,相当于每处的人口密度均相等,土地产出便没有差异。
(2)这里的转移支付主要指保障农业生产的各类公共品供给支出。
(3)一般情况下,农村的人口规模外部性较低,明显低于城市。
(4)在农村部门中,对于个人而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ1,成本的弹性为1/(2-β1)。当δ1>1/(2-β1)时,随着人口的增加,收入增加的比例高于成本,农村的人口会不断膨胀,直到世界上只剩下一个城市,这显然与现实矛盾,所以δ1<1/(2-β1),即(2-β1)δ1<1。因此可得到η1=1-(2-β1)δ1>0;而又因为0≤β1<2,那么可得(2-β1)δ1>0,所以可以求得η1=1-(2-β1)δ1<1。综上可得η1满足0<η1<1。
(5)由于在城市部门当中,其总通勤成本和总地租的计算公式和原理与农村部门相似,限于文章篇幅,在此不再赘述。
(6)在城市部门中,对于个人而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ2/α,成本的弹性为1/(2-β2)。当δ2/α>1/(2-β2)时,随着人口的增加,收入增加的比例高于成本,城市的人口会不断膨胀,直到世界上只剩下一个城市,这显然与现实矛盾,所以δ2/α<1/(2-β2),即(2-β2)δ2<α。因此可得到η2=α-(2-β2)δ2>0;而又因为0≤β2<2(这里β2的取值范围的界定原理与β1相类似,限于篇幅,不再赘述),那么可得(2-β2)δ2>0,所以可以求得η2=α-(2-β2)δ2<α。又由α<1,综上可得η2满足0<η2<α<1。
(7)h2j变动会影响h2变动,h2变动又影响P变动。若所有代表人都考虑到这种变动,通过合作博弈则可得?I2i/?h2i=ε2I2i/h2i。
(8)这里ξ1、ξ2的取值范围主要由下文分析得出。由(17)式、(18)式均大于零,可得ξ1、ξ2同时满足0<ξ1<1、0<ξ2<1或者ξ1>1、ξ2>1。假定ξ1、ξ2满足ξ1>1、ξ2>1,那么在中间投入品市场的分析中,求得产品均衡价格P为负值,这显然与事实不符。因此可得ξ1、ξ2取值范围为0<ξ1<1以及0<ξ2<1。
(9)限于篇幅,具体推导过程不再列出,如有需要可向作者索取。
(10)如前文所述,在农村部门中,对于农村居民个体而言,人口规模的收入弹性为δ1,且满足δ1<1/(2-β1)。而又因为0≤β1<2,且f(β1)=1/(2-β1)为区间0≤β1<2上的单调增函数,因此当δ1<1/(2-β1)成立时,必然使得δ1
(11)感谢审稿人在人力资本积累界定方面提出的建设性意见。由于人力资本水平反映的是一定时间点的人力资本程度,而人力资本积累则反映的是一定时间点的人力资本状况,同时人力资本积累又反映了动态累积的结果。为避免混淆人力资本水平与人力资本积累,我们首先用教育投资来代表人力资本积累状况,而非程度,而在人力资本的动态累积结果方面,则用受教育年限代表,在实证分析中,用过去农业生产率变量对其进行回归,以使其反映人力资本动态累积结果。
(12)本文凡涉及货币项目均进行价格指数平减,并去掉个别极端值。
(13)由于部分年份的某些变量缺失,回归中实际用到的数据可能不包括所有年份。
(14)由于2007—2008年调查缺少估计农业生产率的投入和产出信息,同时也缺少教育投资数据,因此在讨论家庭农业生产率的教育投资影响效应时,未使用2007—2008年的数据,而在利用县域农业生产率作为解释变量,研究其对家庭劳均受教育年限的影响时,采用了这两个年份的样本。
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